Reddit in the Valley of RiskReddit NYSE:RDDT has entered my textbook "Valley of Risk" period where the stock has a chance to hold its 50% Retracement of a major trend, fails, and even now has the added confirmation of retesting said 50% Support as overhead Resistance.
There is now only the gap level at 104.90 which if broken will probably fill. Then it will be on to test the post-IPO accumulation Volume Profile POC at 59.37. I think upside risk (if one were short) is mitigated by the prevailing sector rotation out of tech. There is no alpha to save this stock to speak of outside of the tide going out.
Things like this tend to slow bleed out. I might be tempted to take a long dated 60 Put but shorting shares may be more appropriate.
RDDT trade ideas
RDDT long1st target buy @ 109 (position filled)
2nd target buy @ 74
If we close the gap down to 74, I will add more. This is possible in current bear market. This idea is a long term investment in RDDT at what I believe are strong areas of support. Revenue is growing rapidly and I believe in the company. Over 1 billion in ad revenue in 2024, though It's not all positive, they do have some warts such as negative net income and less than expected growth in daily users but I believe these things will be resolved over time and are likely priced in at this point after a 43% drop in the last month from ATH. Long
RDDT watch $122.77: Golden Genesis to end bounce or mark bottom?RDDT bounced on a Genesis fib to its Golden sister at $122.77
This fib could end the bounce, or dip for a retest of lower fib.
If bulls can break and retest this fib, it could mark the bottom.
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RDDT stock in correction phase: Approaching key support RDDT stock is in a correction phase, down more than 50% from its high of 230.41. The stock is now approaching a support level between 102 and 104, which could help the price rise in the short term. If this support holds, the stock could move toward the 130–135 range.
REDDIT: Wall St Accumulation Reddit, Inc. (NYSE: RDDT) is a prominent social media platform that enables users to engage in discussions across a multitude of topics through various communities known as "subreddits." Since its initial public offering (IPO) in March 2024, Reddit has demonstrated notable financial growth. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company reported a 71% increase in revenue, reaching $427.7 million, with advertising revenue contributing $394.5 million—a 60% year-over-year rise. Net income for the same period was $71 million, up from $18.5 million the previous year.
Analysts have mixed views on Reddit's stock as an investment. Some see the recent decline in stock price, influenced by the user growth miss, as a buying opportunity, emphasizing the company's strong revenue performance and potential for recovery in user metrics.
Others advise caution, noting that while brokerage recommendations suggest buying, investment decisions should not be based solely on this information.
In summary, Reddit's robust financial performance and growth initiatives present a compelling case for potential investors. However, considerations regarding user growth trends and external factors affecting traffic are essential when evaluating Reddit as an investment opportunity.
At the moment, Reddit has seen a sharp decline in price since posting its all time high in early February, when it was followed by an extreme correction of 25% in less than 2 weeks. Today, we are seeing a potential liquidity grab of the low that began its meteoric rise , and perhaps buyers will step in, notably wall street, to get a piece of this out-performer.
Lets see!
Sneaky Breakouts: Recent IPOs Reddit and KlaviyoThe charts above highlight Klaviyo and Reddit. The first thing I must say is I am not long either of these companies. I am simply using them as a barometer to spark some research. What I find interesting about both of these names is the way they have marched to all-times and being somewhat new companies to the market. Both have IPO'd within the 12-24 months.
Reddit, however, is a bit more widely known and many of you have followed its breakout. So, in contrast, the chart at the top left of KVYO is very interesting because it is not widely followed or discussed. They are a company at the forefront of automated marketing messaging. Klaviyo enables businesses of all sizes to streamline their customer engagement, transforming a marketing team into a full-fledged messaging powerhouse, allowing brands to automate emails, SMS, and push notifications with data-driven precision.
But the real reason I’m sharing this chart isn’t just about what Klaviyo does—it’s about what its stock is doing alongside another recent IPO like Reddit.
Klaviyo went public on September 20, 2023, pricing its IPO at $30 per share and raising approximately $576 million, giving it a valuation around $9 billion at the time. The stock initially saw strong demand, opening at $36.75 on its first day of trading. Now, months later, it has quietly surged to new all-time highs, a move that flew under my radar.
This has me thinking: what other recent IPOs are quietly breaking out? Historically, some of the best-performing stocks in the market have been newly public companies that start to trend higher after an initial post-IPO base. Names like Shopify, CrowdStrike, and Datadog all had explosive runs after establishing themselves post-IPO. Klaviyo’s move could be an early signal that a new wave of breakouts is forming, and I’m looking for the next in line.
Beyond IPOs, I’m also watching broader shifts in the market, particularly how AI is reshaping industries. AI-driven automation is evolving beyond simple efficiency tools into full-fledged AI agents capable of transforming cost structures for companies. From marketing to customer service to software development, businesses that leverage AI in ways that improve margins could be tomorrow’s biggest winners. The question now is: which companies are positioned to capitalize on this shift?
This is my focus—hunting for epic breakouts, whether it’s fresh IPOs like Klaviyo or companies leading the next wave of AI-driven disruption.
If you know of any, add them to the comments below!
Reddit 2-17 (scalping + forecast)🔥 Market Overview (Reddit - RDDT)
Trend: Recent uptrend showing signs of exhaustion, possible correction in progress.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $211-$215 (Supertrend resistance zone)
Support: $194-$196 (EMA 200 and recent demand zone)
Indicators:
EMA 9: $201.96 (Price is below short-term EMA, signaling weakness)
EMA 200: $179.48 (Still long-term bullish)
Supertrend: Bearish reversal near $214.93
MACD: Bearish momentum increasing, with a crossover confirmation.
RSI: 36.92 – Approaching oversold territory, suggesting possible short-term bounce.
🔥 Scalping Strategy
🩸 Range Scalping (Preferred Strategy)
Buy near: $196-$198, targeting $205.
Sell near: $205-$210, targeting $196.
Stop-loss: Below $194 (EMA 200 break invalidates bullish case).
🩸 Breakout Scalping (If $211 Reclaims)
Buy above: $211, targeting $220+.
Stop-loss: Below $206 to limit risk.
🩸 Momentum Scalping (For Quick Trades)
Short near: $210-$212, targeting $200.
Buy near: $195-$196, targeting $205.
🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks)
Bearish correction in progress, but the $194-$196 zone could act as a strong buy zone.
A break below $194 signals further downside to $180-$185.
If the price reclaims $211, expect another bullish leg targeting $220-$225.
🔥 News & Market Context
Recent strong rally may be exhausting, leading to short-term profit-taking.
No major fundamental catalysts supporting further immediate upside.
Market-wide sentiment could dictate whether support holds or breaks.
🔥 Decision:
🩸 Short-term: Scalp buy at $196, targeting $205.
🩸 Mid-term: Wait for price action confirmation at $194-$196.
🩸 Ideal Play: Short $210-$212, buy dip near $195-$196.
👑 Final Verdict:
Reddit stock faces correction after a strong rally, but buy zones exist around $196. Watch for a reclaim of $211 for further upside. Otherwise, expect a dip toward $194 or lower.
🔥 LucanInvestor's Quote:
"Not every pullback is a buying opportunity—timing is everything." 👑
Betting Trend End for Reddit. RDDTThese are often hard to pick and as a pivot or fade take, it is inherently more risky. The Stop is tight. Never the less Fibonacci cluster of 5 and 2 to 5 show some high probability areas of take profits. In practice we do not use stationary stops or targets, dynamic systems have proven to be more useful.
Pricey but pulling back - long RDDT at 196.21 Reddit is a little bit dangerous here. It is a very expensive stock with a short trading record that has run up massively of late. But it has pulled back, and is still within the confines of its regression channel.
Ordinarily I don't trade stocks without large piles of trading data to fall back on. So why this time? First of all, the reason I don't is primarily that newer stocks have a much higher failure rate (going to zero) than battle tested ones do. Given that the strategy I use is first and foremost about safety, going to zero is a HUGE no no so I avoid them by and large.
I don't think that's an even remote risk in the case of RDDT, however.
Secondly, in its brief history with my system it has performed very well from a per day held return standpoint (around 1.5% per day held, or about 55x the long term daily average return of SPY). While that number will tend to decrease over time with more trades, even a return half that size is a sizable daily return.
Also, every trade signal has been profitable to this point, but again the small sample size renders that information basically irrelevant. In the end, I have to respect the trend here and trust that NYSE:RDDT will follow the same pattern that the other almost 2000 stocks I screen follow and that this trade will work out because it's what stocks do. We shall see, I guess.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Reddit price analysisTechnical:
The price is in premium, and my POI is around $181-$170. However, from a technical standpoint, the price is bullish, and if it doesn't close below $156, it could continue higher.
Looking for an H4 CISD ( from POI ) for a possible continuation to the upside.
If there is no H4 CISD, I assume the price will go lower.
Fundamental:
Reddit's stock surge was primarily driven by strong Q4 2024 financial results:
Key Financial Highlights (Q4 2024):
Revenue: $427.7M (+71% YoY growth)
Net Profit: $71M (compared to just $18.5M the previous year)
Daily Active Users (DAU): 101.7M (+39% YoY)
Why Did the Market React This Way?
Strong Revenue Growth – The 71% annual increase shows Reddit’s ability to better monetize its platform.
Profitability – The company reported a profit, a key metric for investors post-IPO.
Ad Revenue & AI Partnerships – Growth was fueled not only by traditional ad revenue but also by data licensing deals for AI models, such as its partnership with Google.
Market Optimism – AI and social media sectors are experiencing strong investor demand.
Although daily active users slightly missed analyst expectations (101.7M vs. the expected 103M), the overall financial results exceeded expectations, leading to a significant stock price increase.
2/12/25 - $rddt - i'm bipolar on this... long print2/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:RDDT
i'm bipolar on this... long print
- i've been dead wrong about this one. honestly.
- but there's no fighting the usage trends
- valuation is still wildly expensive, but as one knows in this tape, until the music ends... a beat/ a good guide sends something like this... into nothing else matters territory
- so we see meta beat... snap... good #s (but just a confused company)... hard not to see a beat and probably a decent outlook here
- furthermore, i'm massively cash heavy and opened the can of TQQQ p's whoop azz for mid-march to make a call on risk/ growth scare
- SO, when i see interesting places to take risk on with clear catalysts (typically earnings), i'll drop the puck and shoot on net.
- not the highest conviction idea. between NASDAQ:LYFT (long) last night and NASDAQ:Z (short), i was able to eeek out a nice net gain, but it wasn't pretty
- tonight i'm only taking this one shot, but i've looked to play the fake company NASDAQ:APP in a similar fashion. i just couldn't pinch my nose hard enough and ... well... rddt is at least a real company. re: NASDAQ:APP IYKYK (hai NYSE:CVNA fans!)
let's see. here for the show.
V
book rn: 45% cash, 20% nxt (40% gross), 15% obtc, 10% uber (20% gross), 5% tsm (10% gross) and TQQQ p's ~2% (30% gross). assorted other junk ST like blde i wrote up today, trade etc.
Bearish divergance can't be ignored Reddit could be due a major pullback, it has been printing a large bearish divergence for months now, stuggling to make higher highs with a weakness in momentum apparent.
If wider market correct in Jan, plausible that profit taking could bring this down to the .618 fib retracement level, which would see the fair value gap from Oct filled.
RDDT - Bearish thesis based on double top on 4hr frameRDDT on high watch for me this week as we are testing 20d SMA, a double top, and multiple long (green trendline) and mid-term (blue trendline) trendline supports between 164 & 162.5. Bearish in RDDT below 170 and have short term target of 155.5 & 151.5 if we get a high volume trend break. RDDT has also exhibited weakness within broader megaphone trend as we've failed to touch trendline resistance on recent highs signaling weaker presence of buyers and giving us the double top intra-trend setup.
RDDT Rising Megaphone Bullish Thesis Summary: Ascending Megaphone Pattern displaying higher highs and higher lows, with a steeper resistance trendline. As you can see, this pattern showcases increasing volatility as the trendlines are diverging over time which intuitively makes sense as this is a recently IPO'ed company and buyers and sellers are battling heavily to figure out the fair value.
SasanSeifi|Can We Expect $80 or More?Hey there, ✌ NYSE:RDDT In the daily time frame, it can be observed that we have experienced an upward trend from the $50 mark, with the price currently moving within an ascending channel. At present, the price is situated at the midline of this channel. The outlook remains predominantly bullish, and it is expected that after a brief consolidation, the price could rise to the previous peak of $78.
Furthermore, if the price breaks above the previous all-time high (ATH), we may witness further gains towards the targets of $80, $85, and even $90. To better understand the continuation of this upward trend, it will be crucial to observe how the price reacts to these anticipated levels. The potential trend is also illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Key support levels for this bullish scenario are found between $65 and $60. If these supports are lost and the price stabilizes below them, the bullish analysis will lose its credibility.
💢 This is just my personal analysis, not financial advice. If you found this helpful, feel free to like and comment – I'd love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
RDDT Reddit Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RDDT Reddit prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 78usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-11-1,
for a premium of approximately $4.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$RDDT The Bears are Marching InNYSE:RDDT like many other well met IPO's will eventually fall below its lowest price for a much needed liquidity hunt to shake out weak hands.
The bears are attacking this stock and many others right now. Here we have a classic bearish double top forming. We make spike a new high just above 80 or stop just below current highs, but the bear are marching in and this stock will get rejected hard.
First stop will be 40.53$ when this breaks you will want to start accumulating stock around the 17.32$ level.
As with all great accumulations it will be an assumed 5 years hold once we get to target.
Expect poor earnings reports and forecasts to be a major catalyst.