Are they going bankrupt?
CASSAVA SCIENCES, INC stock forum
1. **Cash-Per-Share Valuation (Liquidation Floor)**
This is one of the **most conservative ways** to value a biotech company with no commercial products.
- **Cash on hand (Q3 2024):** ~$149 million
- **Shares outstanding:** ~40 million
- **Cash per share:** ~$149M ÷ 40M = **~$3.72/share**
This gives you a **"cash floor"**, or a theoretical valuation if the company shut down today.
✅ So, **$3.72 or below** might be considered a **“low-risk” price**, assuming:
- You’re betting the company still has value through its remaining assets or IP.
- You're not expecting near-term success from its Alzheimer's pipeline (since simufilam failed Phase 3).
---
2. **Speculative Upside Scenarios**
If you’re comfortable with **high risk/reward**, some traders or long-term speculators may see prices under **$5–6** as "undervalued" given:
- Past prices above $100
- Ongoing research or litigation outcomes
- Possibility of new trials or partnerships
---
📉 Current Market Sentiment
Since the simufilam failure, the stock has plummeted below $3 (as of recent reports). This means **market confidence is low**, and any rebound depends on:
- New pipeline developments
- M&A rumors
- Unexpected trial restarts or IP monetization
---
### ✅ Takeaway:
| Price Range | Risk Level | Explanation |
|-------------|------------|-------------|
| **<$3.72** | 🟢 Low(er) Risk | Close to cash per share — “liquidation floor” |
| **$3.72–$6** | 🟡 Moderate Risk | Betting on a bounce or some asset value |
| **>$6** | 🔴 High Risk | Pricing in recovery or new success story |
SAVA
This is one of the **most conservative ways** to value a biotech company with no commercial products.
- **Cash on hand (Q3 2024):** ~$149 million
- **Shares outstanding:** ~40 million
- **Cash per share:** ~$149M ÷ 40M = **~$3.72/share**
This gives you a **"cash floor"**, or a theoretical valuation if the company shut down today.
✅ So, **$3.72 or below** might be considered a **“low-risk” price**, assuming:
- You’re betting the company still has value through its remaining assets or IP.
- You're not expecting near-term success from its Alzheimer's pipeline (since simufilam failed Phase 3).
---
2. **Speculative Upside Scenarios**
If you’re comfortable with **high risk/reward**, some traders or long-term speculators may see prices under **$5–6** as "undervalued" given:
- Past prices above $100
- Ongoing research or litigation outcomes
- Possibility of new trials or partnerships
---
📉 Current Market Sentiment
Since the simufilam failure, the stock has plummeted below $3 (as of recent reports). This means **market confidence is low**, and any rebound depends on:
- New pipeline developments
- M&A rumors
- Unexpected trial restarts or IP monetization
---
### ✅ Takeaway:
| Price Range | Risk Level | Explanation |
|-------------|------------|-------------|
| **<$3.72** | 🟢 Low(er) Risk | Close to cash per share — “liquidation floor” |
| **$3.72–$6** | 🟡 Moderate Risk | Betting on a bounce or some asset value |
| **>$6** | 🔴 High Risk | Pricing in recovery or new success story |
SAVA
SAVA 40% SI 20 RSI...yeah ill take the risk #SqueezeSava
SAVA Waiting for 1 dolla
SAVA I will throw 10K at $1.
SAVA hope yall bought!
SAVA I think it will go up to 40$ maxSAVA I'm I reading this right, SAVA got a pt of $116 today mmm
SAVA $4.00 target.SAVA $2.76 here we come!