SBUX: Have Bears Been Needing More Espressos?Primary Chart: Two Anchored VWAPS from Important Highs and Lows and Fibonacci Levels
Have bears been needing more espressos? Looking solely at SBUX's chart and ignoring most other equities and equity indices, one might suspect the indices had been doing well since May 12, 2022. SBUX put in a trading low on that date and has made higher lows ever since then.
Equity indices tell a much different story, however, with significant declines in mid-June 2022 that made lower lows in this bear market. Equity indices also experienced a significant decline in August and early September 2022.
Supplementary Chart A: Upper Bollinger Band Snap on SBUX's Daily Chart and SBUX's Relative Performance Compared to the S&P 500 AMEX:SPY
On Supplementary Chart A, notice the following technical features:
SBUX made a new multi-month high on September 14, 2022, whereas SP:SPX did not.
SBUX's low in May 2022 was not undercut by a June 2022 low, whereas SP:SPX 's low in May 2022 was in fact undercut by lower lows in June 2022.
SBUX has been making higher highs and higher lows since May 9, 2022, whereas SPX's price action has been more choppy. SPX made a lower low in June 2022 unlike SBUX. SPX made a lower high September 12, 2022, while SBUX did not. SPX did not snap its upper Bollinger Band today, September 14, 2022.
SBUX's 8-day EMA has held above its 21-day EMA for much of the time since the May 2022 low.
SBUX's decline in late August and early September 2022 occurred without breaking the structure of the intermediate-term uptrend that has been in existence since SBUX's May 2022 low.
Overall, SBUX has outperformed SPX substantially since SBUX's May 9, 2022, low. The outperformance of SBUX has been especially notable today, September 14, 2022. Ironically, this outperformance follows weeks of frustrating and choppy price action in the equity indices, as exemplified by the US index OANDA:SPX500USD . SPX rallied powerfully into August 16, 2022, then it fell sharply about -10% into early September 2022. This steep decline was followed by a 4-day rally of about +6%, which was followed by a 2-day decline of about -5%. So one might be forgiven for wondering whether traders and investors have needed more espressos, which of course could in theory cause a boost to demand for SBUX's beverages despite an ever inflating cost.
SBUX began struggling before the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Perhaps traders were enjoying their profits so much that they just started foregoing those pricey espressos more often. SPX made its all-time high on January 4, 2022. NDX made its all time high several weeks earlier. SBUX started struggling in July 2021, much earlier than broader markets did.
Supplementary Chart B: SBUX's Weakness Began Earlier than Broader Equity Indices
All humor aside, a longer-term view shows just how wide of a moat SBUX had built for itself worldwide regardless of where its beverages are deemed to rank amongst espresso makers. Consider SBUX's long-term logarithmic trendline shown in the chart below. Supplementary Chart C (below) shows how this line has been respected for decades. This longer logarithmic line goes back to 1992.
Supplementary Chart C.1: Long-Term Logarithmic Trendlines
Two more long-term trendlines are worth considering below. These are also drawn on Supplementary Chart C.2 (also logarithmic), and they are shorter in duration than the 1992-present trendline in Supplementary Chart C.1.
Supplementary Chart C.2: Two More Long-Term Logarithmic Trendlines
On Supplementary Chart C.2, notice that what appeared to be a decisive break in the longer-term logarithmic trendline in March 2022 was a failed breakdown, also known as a whipsaw. Price recovered back above the trendline as people realized the pandemic would not ultimately win in separating them from their beloved hand-crafted lattes.
But the longer logarithmic trendline was broken again this year in the broader bear market. Yet price recovered above this longer-term trendline this week. Was that due to all the market participants deciding it was more fun to have a drink with a friend at SBUX than to trade? Probably not, but it's an interesting coincidence that SBUX's outperformance starts to shine when equity indices have chopped and frustrated bears and bulls alike for the past several weeks and months.
The shorter logarithmic line (also a long-term line going back to March 2020) shown on Supplementary Chart C shows price holding above this line since the lows on May 2022.
What comes next? Equity indices have been in an ongoing bear market. The macroeconomic environment, hawkish central-bank policies, and tightening financial conditions would seem to suggest price cannot continue an unobstructed rise. But since May 2022, price has managed to carve out an intermediate-term uptrend structure in the midst of an ongoing bear market.
A significant anchored VWAP, shown in dark blue on the Primary Chart at the start of this article, lies directly overhead. This must be recovered along with the .50 (green) and .618 (gold) retracement levels at $97.35 and $104.19 before getting excessively optimistic.
But as everyone knows, a security's price can do anything it wants. And consumers can increase or decrease SBUX beverage consumption in the midst of a challenging financial environment where everything costs more, and less cash is available to pay for fancy drinks. But one might reasonably conclude that less consumption could be in store unless inflation can be brought down by hawkish central banks without causing a recession.
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Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
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