SLV trade ideas
Pirates at a crossroadIt seems our pirate ship may have been discovered by some officers as we progress toward our treasure. We are at a critical crossroad.
A battle may ensue that will either result in a continuation of our treasure hunt or sink this ship.
(There should be at least one rebound, so it's time to set tight stops and tread extremely carefully.)
SLV Wave 4 Setting Up for move to 20Still holding an uptrending channel. Holding this level would be super positive, setting up for a wave 5 move to the top of the channel. By rule, Wave 4 cannot breach Wave 1 so while lower prices are still possible, impulse waves generally conform to the channel. As my long term outlook is for eventually testing the highs, I was buying Jan 2020 and Jan 2021 LEAP calls.
Earlier write- discussed the double bottom pattern. To prove the double bottom formation, price would need to break through the last major high just under 20. My expectation was that it would pick up steam and run to fill on gap on SLV above 25.50. Not certain if gaps in SLV get filled like gaps in stocks since XAGUSD trades pretty much continuous. I was watching today to see how SLV would react to filling the gap. I was buying as that gap filled. It then rallied from their but backed down at the close of the day. So I'm thinking that gaps are valid and there may be a run to 25+
As 20 gets touched/breached, would expect some selling but also, as another poster wrote, buying above 20, a breakout level, was the strategy.
As the five wave pattern completes, I'm expecting the ensuing correction to last around 3 months, possibly into next year, so I'm planning to liquidate the 2020 calls, holding on to the 2021s. Expect lots of great trading opportunities during that correction phase to build a large position in anticipation for a run to test the highs.
SLV Next Wave to 18.70?Appears that we may be in a wave 2. Wave 1 being 16.61 to 17.41. If wave 3 moves 1.618 of wave 1, targeting 18.70.
SLV Successful Test of LowsSLV had every opportunity to head down much lower today but upon filling the gap, prices immediately reversed. Analysis: Successful three day test of the low. Price should now rally to form a three week test of the highs. While daily closing prices might be higher, the weekly target price to surpass is only 17.15. Possible rally could/should move into the next week as well however if SLV rises above 17.15 and cannot hold that level, I will need to reassess my intermediate-term outlook Possible that market-moving news, i.e., Iran, could be an impetus for a sharp rally higher, but do believe that while the president talks tough, he is not likely to strike at Iran, at least not militarily. Such a move would be a dramatic game changer across the board.
SLV A Little More Shake Out On Tap?Perhaps another shake out coming tomorrow with Fed talk coming tomorrow. Still long term bullish but grabbed a handful of cheap SLV puts at the close today just in case volatility strikes again
SLV Possible Monthly Support viewRunning a 10 month average with a long term support line shows that on a monthly close basis, we should hold support around 15.70.Still a strong bullish trend in the works
SLV Will Buy the Dip Mentality Move to PMs?A more bullish view may place us in a minor wave 4 of a larger wave 3 structure with a test of the highs and the potential wave 5 coming in a couple of weeks. Some suggest that in commodities, wave 5 can be the strongest move. My longer term view (other posts) suggests a confirmation of the Major Double Bottom. To complete this formation, SLV must break above 20. As Central Banks continue to lower interest rates to negative levels, the move to precious metals should continue. With the gold/silver ratio so out of whack as it has been, it's possible that silver will eventually test the highs.
SLV 2022 LEAPs are now listed. My patient money goes into LEAPs and physicals to take away my urge to trade my positions. Spreads are not friendly here resulting in stable long term positions.
SLV Upward Bias ViewAs SLV appears to be entering into a bull market phase, interesting to see possible channel ranges. In 2021, I could imagine to see $40 as the midpoint. That could be consistent with a gold/silver ratio moving down to 40. Of course, knowing how silver trades, a $2 smackdown could occur in any moment ;-)
One More Channel??SLV has had a swift correction to what may be the best opportunity we will see. Lots of work done in the channel below and I like things here. Either way these are add to or initial spots to start nibbling. One more channel max exposure!! Back up the truck!
SLV - Oct 18SLV was for quite sometime was following a steady uptrend until broke out. It has now reverted back to exactly where it was 2 weeks ago.
I'm expecting it to trade sideways within the narrow uptrend range, fake a breakout and then fail as the MACD cross under suggests massive downside.
I'll be watching:
- OTM Long 15 Put Oct 18
- ITM Long 17 Put Oct 18
- Short Iron Fly 18/16/14
Silver accumulationLet's go, may dip to $16 but r:r on this one is great at any price for the next year or so
Breakout on SLV to continueNext trading day will tell. Looking for AMEX:SLV to touch on the SMA50 for support. That would be a buy signal for me, then I would monitor for it not to go lower than 5% down from entry and 20% up. 5%_down is an instant sell. Depending on market feel at 20%_up it may warrant carrying a partial set of stock over with an fresh exit bracket.
SLV _ Wave 4 Coming SoonAppears to be in the final stage of a wave 3 with one more rally to test the highs. Then anticipating a wave 4 of a similar time frame as wave 2 with an alternating pattern. Then on to test higher resistance levels.
My take on SLV Would love any feedback, I am still learning!
Reasons I am bearish in the short-term:
- The meteoric rise of Silver and SLV prices has had no time to develop strong support or resistance
- Bearish Volume is increasing, both in raw vol but also in its reaction to bulls trying to recover
- MACD is not looking healthy for hourly and the daily looks like it is going to converge soon - Bearish signal
- Massive shooting star on the weekly chart
- Hourly Stoch says oversold, but daily says overbought
- Hourly MA(9,20,50) all looking not so great as the short term (MA9) has completely crossed the 20 and 50
- Forex Silver to USD (XAGUSD) is also barely holding support, and looks like it is starting to downtrend
Reasons I am bullish:
- Volatility is insane, so who knows
Just some ideas, please leave a comment and let me know what YOU think! :)
