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TSLA trade ideas

Tesla (TSLA) Long-Term Analysis: Retesting Key SupportHello traders! Let’s dive into a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) on the monthly chart to understand where the stock might be headed next. I’ll walk you through my thought process, focusing on a comparison between the recent correction and a similar setup in 2020, while also analyzing the current correction’s alignment with the triangle formation from the 2021–2024 consolidation. My goal is to help you see the context of this setup and make an informed decision if you’re considering a trade. Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture and Historical Context Tesla has been in a strong uptrend since 2013, as evidenced by the ascending channel (highlighted in blue). This channel has guided the stock’s long-term trajectory, with the lower trendline providing support during pullbacks and the upper trendline acting as resistance during peaks. Within this uptrend, Tesla has experienced significant breakouts followed by corrections, and I’ve identified a compelling similarity between the current price action and a setup from 2020, alongside a key technical level from the recent consolidation. Step 2: Comparing the Recent Correction to 2020 In 2020, Tesla consolidated in a range between $12 and $24 (labeled "Consolidation 1" on the chart). It then broke out, rallying to a high of $64.60—a gain of about 169% from the upper end of the consolidation range. Following this breakout, Tesla experienced a sharp pullback, dropping to $23.37, which represents a 63.8% correction from the $64.60 high. After finding support at this level, Tesla resumed its upward trajectory, soaring to $166.71—a 613% increase from the pullback low. Now, let’s look at the current situation: Tesla broke out of "Consolidation 2" (around 2021–2024), rallying from $212.11 to a high of $488.54—a 130% increase. It has since corrected by 51%, dropping to the current price of $239.43. This 51% pullback is slightly less severe than the 63.8% correction in 2020, but the structure is similar: both followed significant breakouts from consolidation zones. Step 3: Current Price Action and the Triangle Retest Tesla is currently trading at $239.43, down 55% from its recent high of $488.54. If the correction deepens to around 60%, it would bring the price to approximately $195.42 (calculated as $488.54 × (1 - 0.60) = $195.42), which aligns perfectly with the upper trendline of the triangle formation from "Consolidation 2" and the "Retest support?" zone around $170–$200. This confluence suggests that the current correction could be setting the stage for a significant bounce, just as the 2020 correction did. If this $170–$200 level fails to hold, I’m watching for a deeper pullback to the "Retest support" zone around $138–$150, which aligns with the lower trendline of the ascending channel and has acted as support during previous pullbacks (e.g., in 2023). Step 4: My Prediction and Trade Idea Here’s where I put myself in your shoes: if I were trading Tesla, I’d be watching for a retest of the $170–$200 support zone as a potential buying opportunity, drawing from both the 2020 playbook and the current technical setup. Why? In 2020, Tesla found support at $23.37 after a 63.8% correction, which set the stage for a 613% rally to $166.71. Similarly, a 60% correction now would bring Tesla to the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, a level that could act as a springboard for the next leg up. If Tesla holds this support, I expect a move back toward the $300–$339 range, where it faced resistance before the recent drop. A break above $339 could signal a continuation toward $488.54, retesting the recent high. Profit Targets and Stop Loss Entry: Consider buying around $170–$200 if the price retests this support and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern or increased volume). Profit Target 1: $300 (a conservative target based on recent resistance). Profit Target 2: $339 (a more aggressive target at the prior resistance zone). Stop Loss: Place a stop below $160 to protect against a breakdown of the $170–$200 support zone. This gives the trade a risk-reward ratio of up to 13:1 for the first target. Risks to Consider If Tesla fails to hold the $170–$200 support, we could see a deeper correction toward $138–$150, and potentially even $64–$90, another historical support level. Additionally, keep an eye on broader market conditions, as Tesla is sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment in the EV sector. While the 2020 setup and the triangle retest provide a historical and technical parallel, the current 55% drop suggests heightened volatility, so be prepared for potential whipsaws around these key levels. Conclusion Tesla’s recent 55% correction from $488.54 to $239.43 echoes the 63.8% pullback in 2020 after the breakout from "Consolidation 1." If the correction deepens to 60%, it would retest the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, suggesting a potential opportunity for a high-probability trade with clear profit targets and a defined stop loss. This setup could mirror the 2020 recovery, where Tesla rallied 613% after finding support. What do you think of this setup? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tex071173952
Long TSLA Next Week: Targets and Analysis - Key Insights: Tesla's brand may face challenges, but its advancements in autonomous driving and robotics technology provide a strong foundation for potential growth. Despite ongoing volatility and political distractions, the focus should be on Tesla's technological and innovative strengths. A mixed sentiment from analysts suggests monitoring reversal signals for possible entry points. - Price Targets: Next week's targets for a long position are set at $255 (T1) and $262 (T2), with stop levels at $217 (S1) and $190 (S2). - Recent Performance: Tesla, along with other tech stocks, has faced significant volatility influenced by broader market weaknesses. Breaking key levels within major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 has affected Tesla's technical outlook. Despite this, there's potential for a V-shaped recovery led by improvements in the tech sector. - Expert Analysis: Analysts present a dual sentiment, acknowledging the brand issues while highlighting innovations like Tesla's role in autonomous driving. Predictions suggest holding Tesla stock with specific price targets in mind to leverage potential future growth. - News Impact: Factors such as tariffs, US-China trade tensions, and disappointing Q1 vehicle sales continue to challenge Tesla's market position. Political actions from Elon Musk and discussions around vandalism incidents contribute to brand challenges. However, Tesla's progress in AI and robotics remains promising for future growth. The situation warrants close attention to market shifts and reversal signals.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
2
TSLA Elliott wave Analysis 20/4/2025For me, I think that TSLA have already End the Cycle (count from the first day TSLA is IPO).As you can see there is a clear divergence at the wave 5 of the A wave,suggesting that A wave of the corrective wave should be end and ready for the huge B wave that might take a lot of time (Since it is the B wave of the massive wave 2).But there is a change that the wave A that is coming down might be the part of WXY pattern or others pattern so we have to keep an eye on.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jirapattinn
TSLA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-17TSLA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-17) Below is an integrated analysis of the reports and market data: ────────────────────────────── MODEL REPORTS – KEY POINTS • Grok/xAI  – Price and moving averages on both 5‑min and daily charts are below key EMAs; RSI and MACD point to current bearish momentum.  – Notable technical support at about 239.75 with resistance above near 242.  – The options chain shows heavy put activity at the $240 strike (premium about 0.67), and max pain is at 245, although that level is less relevant for a near‐term (0DTE) trade.  – Recommendation: Trade the TSLA $240 PUT at an ask of 0.67 at the open, aiming for roughly a 100% gain and using about a 50% loss as a stop. • Gemini/Google  – Technicals on short‐term and daily timeframes are mixed: the daily chart is clearly bearish while some 5‑min indicators hint at stabilization.  – Conflicting signals (including the max pain pull toward 245 and falling VIX) result in not having a high‑conviction directional bias.  – Conclusion: “No trade” is recommended today because the conflicting indicators raise the risk of getting whipsawed. • Claude/Anthropic  – Technical analysis on both 5‑min and daily confirms a moderately bearish bias (price well below major EMAs, RSI below 50).  – However, one suggested trade was a TSLA $237.50 PUT at an extremely low premium (0.13) which seems less attractive given the preferred premium range.  – In essence, the model sees downside potential but selected a strike a bit further out from the current price. • Llama/Meta  – A moderately bearish setup is noted, with the technical picture similar to the others on very short‐term charts.  – However, the model also flags the influence of max pain at 245 and concludes that a naked call (for example, at the $240 or $242.50 strike) could profit if the upward “max pain pull” works in play.  – Ultimately, this view contrasts with the put trades favored by others. • DeepSeek  – Confirms the overall technical picture: price is below key averages, with bearish momentum evident on both 5‑min and daily charts.  – Emphasizes the high open interest on $240 puts and the near-term support at 239.75.  – Recommends buying the TSLA $240 PUT at its 0.67 ask price for this weekly (0DTE) option. ────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT Agreements:  – Most reports note that TSLA is trading in a moderately bearish state with price below the relevant moving averages and key support levels near 239.75.  – There is broad recognition that options activity is concentrated around the $240 strike—especially on the put side, where volume and open interest are very high, underscoring bearish positioning.  – Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands) on short‑term and daily charts lean toward bearishness despite some very short‑term signals of stabilization. Disagreements:  – Gemini/Google sees too many conflicting signals (including the upward pull implied by max pain) and hence recommends no trade, while the majority of the other analysts view the setup as tradeable.  – Llama/Meta is open to trading a naked call (capitalizing on the max pain influence) whereas Grok/xAI, DeepSeek, and to a lesser degree Claude/Anthropic advocate for a bearish put trade instead.    ────────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION & TRADE RECOMMENDATION Overall Market Direction Consensus:  Most opinions point to a moderately bearish bias for TSLA on a near-term, 0DTE weekly horizon. Even though conflicting signals (like max pain toward 245 and some stabilization on very short timeframes) introduce uncertainty, the weight of the technicals and put side open interest lean toward downside pressure. Recommended Trade:  Trade a single‑leg, naked PUT (weekly option) on TSLA. Trade Parameters:  – Instrument: TSLA  – Strategy: Buy a TSLA $240 PUT  – Expiration: 2025‑04‑17 (weekly, 0DTE)  – Premium: Approximately $0.67 per contract (slightly above the preferred range, but justified by high liquidity and clear technical support)  – Entry Timing: At the open  – Profit Target: Around 100% gain from the entry premium (i.e. exit near a $1.34 premium)  – Stop‑Loss: Roughly a 50% loss at about $0.33 per contract  – Confidence Level: Approximately 65%  – Key Risks & Considerations:   • The mixed signals (especially Gemini’s caution and the max pain theory) mean price could quickly reverse if TSLA rebounds near 245.   • Very short‑term trading (0DTE) carries risks related to rapid time decay and volatility spikes.   • A failure to break important support (around 239.75) would warrant an early exit. ────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "TSLA", "direction": "put", "strike": 240.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 1.34, "stop_loss": 0.33, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.67, "entry_timing": "open" } Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by henryzhang99
Tesla in a Range: Buyer Hopes and Seller TargetsHey, traders and investors! After a downtrend, Tesla stock formed a sideways range, which gives buyers hope for a trend reversal. I assume the price has not yet reached its true bottom. Interesting levels to watch for potential buy patterns are located within the last seller's initiative before the most recent price increase. These levels are marked in blue on the chart: 184.25 – upper boundary of the seller’s initiative 167.5 – local low inside the seller’s initiative 157.22 – an unachieved seller target within the initiative 138.8 – lower boundary of the seller’s initiative, also matching the monthly seller target It is also possible to look for sell patterns around 304.39, which is the correction high within the dominant seller’s initiative (the correction did not reach the 50% level of the initiative). The target would be to update the local low and possibly reach 184.25. You can learn more about the analysis method in the related posts. Wishing you all profitable trades!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by AlexeyWolf
TSLA | Long | Technical Buy Zone + Volume Spike | (April 9, 2025 1️⃣ Insight Summary: Tesla is pulling back into a strong demand zone with rising volume, signaling potential accumulation. While fundamentally overvalued, the technicals show this could be a high reward-risk trade if price retests lower levels. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long (if retest happens) Entry Zone: $220 – $223 (ideal buy zone on a potential pullback) Stop Loss: Below $206 (breakdown from structure and invalidation of support) TP: $440.36 (2x reward-to-risk potential) Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:15 (based on current setup) Status: Not yet in position — watching for a retest into support zone 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Significant buy-side volume showing up around current levels ✅ Buy signals and price action bouncing from higher-timeframe demand ✅ Although TSLA is widely viewed as fundamentally overvalued, technical setups like this can still offer solid short- to mid-term returns ❌ Invalidation is clearly below $206 — that breaks the thesis and the base 📉 Waiting for confirmation of a pullback and bounce before entering; chasing here isn't ideal for the reward-risk profile 4️⃣ Follow-up Note: Watching price closely for a potential re-entry toward $220. Will update this trade idea if we get a clean test or breakout. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Risk_Adj_Return
TSLA descending wedge into heavy support bounce? 300-330 pttesla has been slaughtered by the tariffs and social justice warriors, but it seems to be finding footing. here we see a triple bottom on very heavy volume combined with a possible descending wedge. with earnings coming up in a few weeks (4/22, surprisingly not sunday 4/20 ha), it seems the risk/reward here is looking reasonable. one possible way to play this with minimal cash outlay is TSLL. this is a 2x leveraged etf that also has options available on it. thile not suitable for a long term 'buy and hold', it can work well for shorter term trades without having to blow out too much cash making the risk/reward here look somewhat attractive. target 300-330, or about a 30-40% bump from here. stops should be around 200-210, or pessimistically sub 200.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tacosaurus
TESLA Always Pay YOURSELF! Tsla Stock were you PAID? GOLD Lesson ⭐️I want to go into depth regarding the this topic but it is a long one with PROS & CONS for doing and not doing it. Every trader must choose what's best for them but you will SEE when I finally get to the write up that MANY OF THE PROS are NOT FINANCIAL but PSYCHOLOGICAL❗️ Another of 🟢SeekingPips🟢 KEY RULES! ⚠️ Always Pay YOURSELF.⚠️ I know some of you chose to HOLD ONTO EVERYTHING and place your STOP at the base of the WEEKLY CANDLE we entered on or the week priors base. If you did that and it was in your plan GREAT but... if it was NOT that is a TRADING MISTAKE and You need to UPDATE YOUR JOURNAL NOW. You need to note EVERYTHING. What you wanted to see before your exit, explain why not taking anything was justified to you, were there EARLY exit signals that you did not act on. EVERYTHING. 🟢SeekingPips🟢 ALWAYS SAYS THE BEST TRADING BOOK YOU WILL EVER READ WILL BE YOUR COMPLETE & HONEST TRADING JOURNAL ⚠️ 📉When you read it in black amd white you will have YOUR OWN RECORD of your BEST trades and TRADING TRIUMPHS and your WORST TRADES and TRADING ERRORS.📈 ✅️ KEEPING an UPTO DATE JOURNAL is STEP ONE. STUDYING IT IS JUST AS IMPORTANT👍 ⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️A sneak peek of the LESSON after will be HOW & WHEN TO ENTER WHEN THE OPEN BAR IS GOING THE OPPOSITE WAY OF YOUR IDEA.👌 🚥Looking at the TESLA CHART ABOVE you will see that we were interested in being a BUYER when the weekly bar was BEARISH (GREEN ARROW) and we started to consider TAKE PROFITS and EXITS when the (RED ARROW) Weekly bar was still BULLISH.🚥
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by seekingpips
Tesla Forecast 2025 - Key Support Level on $209 NASDAQ:TSLA and AMEX:SPY are both down significantly, with the former reflecting a market shift from a Keynesian economy—reliant on government spending that benefits a few well-connected corporations—to an Adam Smith-inspired liberal economy driven by the invisible hand. Could this transition, with all the buzz about tariffs, fuel inflation? That depends on how these new policies are executed, especially since $2.2 trillion of the Fed’s 2020–2022 QE remains in the system. Definitely, pushing for interest rate cuts now would be a premature shortcut. This new approach to economic policy will sap vitality from large corporations that thrived on U.S. government spending—spanning defense contractors to retailers—while favoring innovative companies like $TSLA. Firms such as NASDAQ:TSLA , which focus on efficiency and generate real wealth rather than nominal gains, stand to gain. Technically, NASDAQ:TSLA ’s key support level on the five-year weekly chart is $209, a critical and pivotal threshold.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by YardCharts
TSLA Enters the Breakdown Zone – Is $222 Next? Prepare or Avoid the Trap! 🧠 Market Insight: The recent Trump tariff announcement has shocked the tech and EV sectors, triggering a broad sell-off across growth names. With sentiment rattled and gamma exposure skewing aggressively negative, traders are facing a high-risk, high-opportunity zone. TSLA is now sitting at a critical juncture—with both Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Options Market positioning flashing red flags. Caution is essential, but opportunity awaits the prepared. 🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart): * Break of Structure (BOS) at $243 confirms bearish intent after multiple Chochs. * Price is holding below a major supply zone ($250–$272), now turned resistance. * Strong bearish channel structure forming, with price consolidating just below BOS—often a sign of continuation. * MACD is below the signal line but slightly curling upward—showing potential for a relief bounce. * Stoch RSI is oversold, indicating exhaustion in short-term bearish momentum. Watch for a bullish crossover. 🔐 Key Levels: * Resistance: $243.32 (prior BOS), $249.89 (HVL / NETGEX wall), $272.5 (2nd Call Wall). * Support: $235 zone (current), $222.28 (recent swing low), $215–$210 (GEX danger zone). 💣 Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights: * Highest Negative NETGEX at $250 – now acting as a gamma barrier, suggesting strong dealer hedging may suppress rallies. * Heavy put walls layered down from $235 to $210, with the 2nd PUT Wall (-66.72%) at $215, marking a likely magnetic downside zone. * IVR: 95.2 with Call$ at 60.5% – Options are still expensive, and call bias may indicate dip-buying interest, but negative GEX outweighs that for now. 📈 Trading Scenarios: 🐻 Bearish Continuation (High Probability): * Entry: Below $235 * Target: $222 → $215 * Stop: Above $243 BOS * Reason: Clean break of BOS, trapped longs, negative gamma buildup 🐂 Bullish Reversal (Less Likely – Monitor): * Entry: Bounce from $235 with strong volume + bullish MACD crossover * Target: $243 → $249.89 * Stop: Below $230 * Reason: Oversold Stoch RSI + high IV environment may cause volatility pop 💡 Strategy Suggestions: * Scalpers: Trade between gamma walls, especially $235 to $222 zone with tight stops. * Swing traders: Wait for reclaim of $243 to consider long. * Options: Buying puts carries risk due to inflated IV. Consider spreads (put debit or bear call). ⚠️ Final Thoughts: TSLA has lost key support and sits in a high-volatility, dealer-driven gamma pocket. Directional plays are dangerous unless you're trading with the flow and reacting quickly. Be surgical, respect your stops, and scale into conviction—not noise. 🧨 This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🧨
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
TSLA is coming down to my buy zoneTSLA is coming down to my buy zone. I will be accumulating at 229 and below. I will start first by selling cash covered naked puts to collect credits until it drops to that zone. The goal is to get assigned with the naked put options at a cost of 229 and below to purchase TSLA shares. There is a good possibility that the next earnings of TSLA will disappoint and we might get a quick dip. In that case we may even see early 200s. I would be adding more shares there. Note that this is a weekly chart so it will take some time to play out. This is a long term hold for me. Upside Target: - Nearest upside target is 11.9% above the current price, approximately $267.86. Downside Target: - Nearest downside target is -1% below the current price, approximately $237.04. - Next downside target is approximately $195.65-196 - Support and Resistance: Monitor the support at $217.02 and resistance at $291.85 for potential breakouts or breakdowns. - Action: Given the bearish sentiment, consider waiting for a clearer bullish signal or confirmation of support holding before entering long positions. Up Volume to Down Volume Ratio 30-Days is 0.86 and 50-Days is 0.78, both below 0.8, indicating bearish sentiment in the near term so wait for it to come down to the buy zone.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by CryptoBreakers