A Little Bearish on Verizon StockWe received two signals for Verizon stock based on the closing price on February 2, 2024 indicating the stock will likely drop over the next 6-20 days. My SAG Gauge Conservative algorithm bearish signal has occurred 211 times. A bearish signal has successfully seen the stock drop below the signal closing price over the next 10 trading days 95.7% of the time. The typical delay, or time the stock does not immediately move downward has generally only been 1 day. This means the stock could move up on Monday, but likely begin its decline as late as Tuesday of this upcoming week.
The other bearish signal is my Up and Down MACD, which signals before a typical MACD cross would occur. Instead of signalling at the cross, I added additional parameters that trigger shortly after weakness is confirmed and well ahead of the cross most people will trade on. For VZ stock, it is accurate in determining reversals 94.50% of the time. This one is interesting in that delays that have occurred result in less than a 1% move. This means the signal price on Friday (closing price) of 42.13 would most likely not see the stock move above 42.60 before it moves below 42.13. In this instance I am looking for a drop well below 42.13.
Simultaneous signals of both algorithms at the same time has occurred 60 times. 58, or 96% of the time the stock has dropped. Simultaneous signals are something I prefer to see as it is more bolstering than solo signals. The last time these two signals occurred together and failed was March 22, 2000. The stock failed to trade downward over the next 27 days. Day 28 finally went into the red, but was a failure in my 10 and 25 day studies.
I am looking for a possible move up on Monday/Tuesday at the latest before we start to move down. A success will occur if the stock goes below 42.13. Historically, simultaneous signals send the stock down to at least 42.09 (which is a very weak success). The 10 day target is a 1.3% - 4% drop over the next 6-9 days. The 25 day target is 2.4% - 6% over by days 13-22. It is unclear where the stock will go after this movement occurs.
