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XOP trade ideas

TRADE IDEA: XOP FEB/MARCH 25/30 UPWARD CALL DIAGONALMetrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $338/contract Max Profit on Setup: $162/contract Break Even: $28.38 versus $28.63 spot Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 67.6% Delta: 39.2 Theta: .61 Notes: A bullish assumption shot at the low end of the range. Ordinarily, I like to go split month with these to give me more time to reduce cost basis, but there isn't an April expiry available yet, so going shorter duration (and therefore cheaper). Shooting for 50% max (.81/$81). I'll adjust the trade or cancel it in the a.m. pre-NY open if /CL price is substantially different from where it was at Friday close (48.31).
AMEX:XOPLong
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP, OIH, USO, XLE, UNG, EEMEarnings With >70 Rank/>50 Implied: No underlyings with highly liquid options with earnings announcements in the next week. With single names with earnings announcements in the rear view mirror, we're looking at earnings starting up again in the January cycle; I'd rather just play those closer to the announcement, rather than get caught up in a volatility expansion (e.g., CAT (84/40) with earnings in 53 vs. January opex 47 days until expiration). Exchange-Traded Funds With >50 Rank/>35 Implied XOP (81/44) OIH (81/43) USO (81/57) XLE (75/27) UNG (75/88) Notes: As you can see by the pictured setup, XOP is at the bottom of its 52-week range. With OPEC talks right around the corner (and likely jawboning to ensue), I'm slightly enamored with a bullish assumption setup here as compared to a nondirectional premium selling play, even though there's premium to be had (the Jan 18th 29/37 short strangle's paying 1.09 with a 70% probability of profit). Last week, I entered into a similar setup in OIH, (See Post Below), since it's gotten the sledge hammer to a greater degree than the rest of the petro-sensitive exchange traded funds. In any event, here are the metrics for the pictured play: Max Loss on Setup/Buying Power Effect: 4.02 debit/contract; Max Profit on Setup: 1.98/contract; Break Even on Setup: 33.02 vs. for a 6-wide, BE at 33.02 vs. 32.81 spot; Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 67%. Look to roll the short call aspect out on significant loss of value (usually 50% max) and to take profit at 50% max (.99/$99 per contract). UNG has been pesky. I've looked at getting into a bearish assumption, seasonality-related short setup, but every time I look, the markets are stupid-wide, making it unattractive from an entry/exit perspective. Given its high rank/implied, however, it might be amenable to a bearishly skewed oppositional setup if you're willing to do a bit of price discovery and not settle for sub-mid price nonsense: the Jan 18th 27/46 short strangle is paying 2.92 at the mid with a net delta metric of =25.44 and break evens at 24.08 and 48.92, which covers a fairly huge swath of the 52-week range. If you're willing to spend a little more time in the trade, the April 18th 26/46 pays 4.91 at the mid, is =29.44 delta, and has break evens of 21.09 and 50.91, although I could see the reluctance to hang yourself out there undefined given the movement it's experienced over the last several weeks. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked By 30-Day Implied EEM 26 QQQ 24 IWM 20 SPY 18 EFA 18 Notes: The EEM Jan 18th 41 short straddle is paying 2.69; the ~30 delta, 39/43 short strangle pays 1.15. I've been working it via double diagonal with a short straddle body, just so I don't have to leg into and out of the long strangle aspect and to budget buying power devoted to the trade. (See Post Below).
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
2
OPENING: XOP 2 X DEC 21ST 35.5/39.5 SHORT CALL VERTICAL... for a .40/contract credit. Notes: This will finish my clean up of my XOP December cycle core position. (See Post Below for all the shenanigans). I've now got "unit balance" (same on put side as on call side), as well as a smaller number of units in total. My scratch point in the position for the December cycle is 5.15/contract, and the net delta of the position remains long running into opex. I'm profitable for the cycle in the underlying, but would like to milk out a little more, particularly since we may get some OPEC jawboning running in their December meeting (i.e., up), which will naturally benefit what remains of the position.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
CLOSING: XOP DEC 21ST 28/31/35/40 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.12/contract debit (1.04 profit/contract). Notes: Further clean-up of my XOP core position in December. Now that I've taken off the 38/41 short call vertical and this iron condor, what remains is two short put verticals, one at 32/35, the other at 30/35. The 32/35 was left over from an iron condor I put on previously, the 30/35 from an iron fly, the call side of which I just closed. The 32/35's a three-wide; the 30/35, a five-wide (for a total of eight wide), so I'll look to sell a 2x4 wide in the December cycle to balance units running into expiry.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: XOP DEC 21ST 28/31/38/41 IRON CONDOR... for an .83/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: .83 ($83)/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 2.17 ($217)/contract Break Evens: 30.17/38.83 Delta: -.55 Theta: 1.73 Notes: An adjustment trade, primarily to add some additional extrinsic value to my XOP core position with XOP rank/implied still being high (100/42), as well as some short delta (it was shorter when I put it on, but price has continued to erode). I didn't quite collect one-third the width, primarily because I have to "squeeze" it in amongst the various spreads I already have on in the December expiry. As with my SPY core position, I'll look to mix and match profitable short put side with profitable short call side as we run into expiry and/or take the entirety of the position off in profit.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
CLOSING: XOP 30/33/41/44 IRON CONDOR... for a .72/contract debit (.38 profit/contract; 34.5% max). Notes: As with my SPY core position, I'm mixing and matching profitable short put side with short call side of oppositional setups that I put on over time to take off some risk, book some profit, and (where possible) to get a bit of delta adjustment where I need it. (Here, I pick up a smidge of needed long delta by closing this out, since price of the underlying has moved to the call side of the pairing). This also has the side benefit of allowing me to recenter a setup in the underlying if I want to and/or frees up buying power to make an adjustment trade if necessary.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines