Z trade ideas
$Z Successful Pullback?NASDAQ:Z I was waiting for a pullback in this name as I missed the initial breakout. It looks to me that it has / is testing that today. I used a 5-minute chart to make an entry after it pulled back and then reversed higher. I have a very tight stop just under today’s low which coincides with both the resistance / support line and the 21 EMA. I posted this idea a few days ago. Link at bottom for those interested.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Constructive comments always welcome.
$Z Breaking OutI have had my eye on both NASDAQ:Z & $RDFN. They are both breaking out today as well as several real estate stocks (see news below). I do not yet have a position in this, but I like it and will look for an entry on most any pullback. (I’ve noticed that most breakouts seem to retest the breakout area.)
Here is what I see on the chart that makes this a top trading candidate. It is above all shorter-term moving averages. It is breaking out of the resistance area that’s been holding it back since February. It is above the 40 Week MA and above the 18-month AVWAP. The last one means to me that the aggregate of all shareholders by price and volume for the last year and a half are in the money. Which also means few sellers want out save a few profit takers.
I don’t think this is extended at this point but I’m still hopeful to get a better entry in this and $RDFN.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
With home prices rising more than expected in April and May housing data showing that inventory remains low, stocks in home-flipping companies Opendoor Technologies NASDAQ:OPEN
and Offerpad Solutions NYSE:OPAD surged Tuesday afternoon.
They're riding the upswell in real estate stocks overall after three economic reports showed surprising strength in home sales and home prices — the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller index, the FHFA House Price Index, and May new home sales.
Rising home prices make it easier to turn a profit when flippers buy a house, renovate it, then sell it. Conversely, home-flipping stocks slumped when home prices became more volatile and declined, making it harder to value potential purchases with an eye to sell it at a profit.
Opendoor Technologies stock jumped 14% in Tuesday midday trading, after dropping 48% in the past year. Offerpad climbed 9.3% after a 78% plunge in the past year.
Real estate brokerage stocks also benefited from the day's news — eXp World Holdings NASDAQ:EXPI gained 6.6%, Re/Max Holdings NYSE:RMAX +3.1%; Redfin NASDAQ:RDFN +7.5%; Anywhere Real Estate NYSE:HOUS , +3.5%.
Zillow NASDAQ:Z , which exited the home-flipping business in 2021, rose 4.5%.
Z Zillow Group Options Ahead of EarningsIn my opinion, Zillow, a well-known online real estate platform, is poised to witness a significant drop in revenue this quarter due to various factors.
Firstly, there seems to be a lack of interest among potential customers in utilizing their services.
Additionally, with interest rates currently high, it is possible that fewer people will be interested in purchasing homes, which could further impact Zillow's revenue.
These challenges, along with other market factors, make it a tough quarter for Zillow, and the company will need to navigate these challenges carefully to maintain their market position.
Now analyzing the options chain of Z Zillow Group prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 40usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $4.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
BottomingIn the second January week we have left the bearish consolidation that thus proved to be a bottom. The consolidation has lasted since June 2022. This is a long time what makes it important.
Since January the outbreak has consolidated itself and we are testing the former trading range from the top now. It may take some time and smaller fluctuations but the potential of a rise is substantial.
Zestimate for Zillow 🏡I can't help but wonder if the software company-turned-covid-smash-hit, is maybe somehow exposed to the "banking crisis". Commodities also continue to show weakness. So if housing is a commodity... well who knows...?
Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that an interest rate cut might be bullish for housing (and markets overall), and maybe even $Z, but I would urge you to consider:
1. The market sets the rate and the fed follows. This can be shown in any overlay of the fed funds rate and the 10Y.
2. If rates continue to fall, that is probably not a good sign for the economy.
As of right now:
Rates remain suppressed from their October highs
Commodities continue to sell off from their Summer 2022 highs
Banks imploding
Oil on the verge of another collapse
So for now, I am thinking this one will continue to grind lower.
God Bless!
ZG: Reviewing the possible scenarios, Target= 45.3 by Dec 2023 Zillow Group stock's price bottomed out at 26.21 last year after weeks of massive sell-off. Since Jan 2023, The stock has shown the tendency to move higher. In the best case scenario, the price can reach to area between 52 and 62 by dec 2023 which offers more than 30% upside given current price. In the worst case scenario, stock can fall as low as 31.8 which suggests more than 25% decline in price.
In short-term, stock price is likely to rebound if it reaches the area between 37.4 and 40. Dec 2023 Target for base case scenario is around 45.
Z 3 FEB 46/ 10 FEB 43 DIAGONAL CALLHIGH BASE SET UP:
Detailed Definition of setup and what market conditions are desirable
Since October 13th Z has had some decent momentum to the upside and at the start of the new year, it had even more upside momentum until it finally started basing January 12th to the 20th with lower or equal volume. In the short term, market conditions are bullish.
Detailed Definition of the trigger (entry point) used to enter positions
When I identified the high base last week, I set an alert at 43.54 which was the high on the 17th. It trigger today.
Detailed Definition used to determine Stops (abandon or adjust)
No stops, I'm risking 2% of my portfolio and set up for max loss.
Detailed Definition of the methods used to determine targets
46.21 was a support zone back from January 28th to about april 20th 2022. So 46.21 is going to be my target as I would anticipate that it's going to want to test that area once again.
How strike prices and expiration dates are selected
Zillow is set to announce earnings Feb 15th. So I didn't want to hold this through earnings so I selected the Feb 3rd as my target and expiration date.
Position management strategies when the stock goes lower
If this goes lower and falls apart, I'm set up for max loss so I'll just move on to another trade.
Position management strategies when the stock goes sideways
If this goes sideways, I'll give it until next week to see if it'll make a run up to my 46 target. Either I'm set up for max loss.
Position management strategies when the stock goes higher
Ok so let's take a look at the hour chart. As of now, it's testing that middle trend line I drew. I wanna see this get above that middle trend line and blow through 46.21. I've set an alert for 46.21 because I'm going to want to see the price action in this area. Because it may want to go test the upper yellow trend line I drew. If it does that I'll want to see a pull back to that support area of 46.21
Position management strategy at expiration
At Feb. 3rd expiration if this is well above my 46.21 target, I'll close out the entire combo. If we're below my 46.21 I'll hang on to my 43 strike but this needs to be closed out before earnings.
Symmetrical TriangleThis triangle has broken to the downside.
Possible stop above the bottom trendline of the triangle or where you see support.
No recommendation.
Price is below the bands set on an 80 DMA which is bearish but can also cause a bounce even if temporary.
The Bollinger Bands can also serve as oversold and overbought indicators. A security can remain oversold for extended periods of time.
If you buy and sell based on oversold and overbought signals alone, you will lose money )O:
ZG Zillow Short Vertical StrategyZillow Group is suffering under the fundamentals of a market slowdown and concern over its aggressive entry into the real estate investment space. My predictive chart suggests there may be a rally up to the $38.50 level early this week before a drop back to the $35 level. I will be looking to sell vertical call spreads two strikes OTM as it peaks on Mon 8th and expect to cover them by end of the week. This is not a recommendation to trade. It is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:ZG