NDX Trading-RoadMap
Weekly
• Context: Overall uptrend from 2022 is intact but under pressure as price slipped below some key weekly moving averages and trendline supports.
• Key Takeaway: The bigger picture has not fully turned bearish yet, but momentum has cooled. If the weekly chart remains above ~17,800–18,000, that “long‐term uptrend” viewpoint is still viable.
Daily
• Trend: Lower highs and lower lows (short‐term downtrend). Price is below the 200‐day SMA (~20,300) and also below the 50/100‐day SMAs (~21,000).
• Focus: Watch if price can reclaim the 200‐day SMA (20,200–20,700 zone) on a daily closing basis. That’s a major pivot for a potential reversal to the upside.
• Support: 19,000–19,200 is the near‐term floor; losing that puts 18,400–18,800 in play.
• Resistance: 19,900–20,100 (initial supply), then 20,200–20,700 (200‐day + Fib).
4H (Shorter‐Term)
• Recent Development: A bounce off ~19,150. MACD turned bullish on 4H, RSI improved from oversold.
• Trendline: The steep 4H downtrend line has been broken; price is testing overhead supply near 19,900–20,000.
• Key Focus: Does the 4H momentum carry price above 20,000+? If so, next stops are 20,200–20,700. If it stalls, watch for a return to ~19,200 or lower.
2. Key Levels to Track
1. Immediate Support Zones
• 19,600–19,700: Minor 4H pivot / mid Bollinger band on 4H.
• 19,000–19,200: Major short‐term floor; also a bullish order block from prior lows.
2. Deeper Supports
• 18,400–18,800: Strong demand if 19k fails.
• 17,800–18,000: Critical weekly zone, where the longer‐term uptrend would truly be at risk.
3. Immediate Resistance Zones
• 19,900–20,100: Overhead supply on Daily/4H; first real challenge for bulls.
• 20,200–20,700: Major confluence (200‐day SMA, Bollinger mid band on Daily, Ichimoku lower cloud boundary).
• 21,000–22,200: Larger daily/weekly supply if the index fully recovers.
4. Fibonacci Confluences
• From the larger swing: 50% retracement ~19,893.
• From the smaller daily swing: 23.6% ~19,886, 50% ~20,706.
• Keep an eye if price clusters or reverses around these fib levels.
3. Indicators You’ll Watch Each Day
• Daily Ichimoku: Price below the cloud → short‐term bias still bearish. A daily close back inside/above the cloud (~20,200–20,400) would be a significant bullish sign.
• Daily MACD: Still negative, but flattening. A bullish crossover on the daily could confirm the 4H bounce is turning into a multi‐day uptrend.
• Daily RSI: Hovering near 40–45. If it reclaims 50+, that’s a better sign of daily upside momentum.
• 4H MACD: Already bullish; watch if it remains that way or starts to roll over near resistance.
• 4H RSI: Currently ~45–50 or slightly higher. Over 60 would reinforce short‐term upside.
• Volume / OBV: See if up moves come on higher volume or if OBV slopes upward. That would show genuine buying pressure.
4. Daily Checklist / “If‐Then” Triggers
Use this section as a morning or intraday reference when you see price approaching certain zones.
A) Bullish Attempt
• IF price breaks above ~19,900–20,000 THEN:
• Check for 4H or daily candle close above that zone.
• Confirm if 4H MACD/RSI remain bullish.
• Potential next target: ~20,200–20,700.
• IF price subsequently closes above 20,200–20,300 THEN:
• This reclaims the 200‐day SMA → a bigger shift to bullish.
• Daily RSI likely near or above 50.
• Next target: ~21,000–21,500, with an eye on the 22k supply zone.
• IF 19,600–19,700 holds as support on a pullback, THEN watch for 4H bullish patterns to confirm a bounce. Potential to re‐attempt 19,900–20,000.
B) Bearish Continuation
• IF price rejects ~19,900–20,100 (4H or daily closes back under 19,600) THEN:
• Expect a drift back to test 19,200–19,000.
• Check if 4H RSI crosses below 40, MACD turns down again.
• If that zone fails, 18,800–18,400 is next support.
• IF daily closes below 19,000 THEN:
• The bullish bounce scenario is invalidated.
• Target a deeper move to 18,400–18,800, possibly 18,000 if momentum is strong.
5. What to Avoid
1. Over‐Leveraging: With the index near pivotal levels, volatility can spike. Keep position sizes within your risk tolerance.
2. Chasing Mid‐Zone: If price is between major zones (e.g., 19,600–19,700), entering randomly without a clear signal can lead to whipsaws. Wait for a confirmed break or test of a zone.
3. Ignoring Conflicting Timeframes: Weekly vs. Daily vs. 4H may conflict. If you see a 4H bullish signal but daily is still firmly bearish, manage risk accordingly (e.g., smaller size, quicker profit targets).
6. Risk Management & Positioning
• Stop Placement:
• For short‐term trades, use 4H ATR (~300 points) or place stops just beyond key swing highs/lows.
• For swing trades, consider daily ATR (~400–450 points) to avoid normal intraday noise.
• Targets:
• Set at least two profit objectives. For bullish trades, T1 near 20,200–20,300, T2 near 21k+. For bearish trades, T1 near 19k, T2 near 18.4k.
• Moving Stops to Breakeven:
• Once T1 is reached or a clear pivot forms in your favor, consider moving your stop to entry to lock in any open profit.
7. Potential News/Events That May Override Technicals
• U.S. Economic Data: Watch for major releases (CPI, Fed announcements, Tech sector earnings). These can create sudden volatility that breaks your technical zones.
• Global Sentiment Shifts: If risk aversion hits equity markets broadly, NDX could gap lower through supports. Alternatively, any strong bullish news in major tech names could swiftly break resistances.
8. Weekly Summary Action Plan
1. Check Weekly & Daily:
• Are we still below the daily 200‐SMA (~20,300)? If yes, short‐term momentum is likely bearish unless proven otherwise by the 4H breakout.
• Is the index forming a weekly candle that regains the prior trend channel or 50‐week SMA? That would be a bullish sign.
2. Monitor 19,900–20,100 & 19,000:
• These levels will dictate a lot of the week’s direction. A break above 20,000 on solid volume is your bullish trigger; a fail at 19,900 or a breakdown below 19,000 reaffirms the bearish narrative.
3. Intraday (4H) Observation:
• If price hovers between 19,600 and 19,900, remain cautious until a decisive push emerges.
• Use the 4H MACD/RSI to gauge if momentum is building up (or rolling over).
4. Risk Profile Guidance:
• Aggressive: Trade around 19,600–19,700 with tight stops, aiming for quick breaks.
• Moderate: Wait for 4H closes above or below key pivot zones (19,900–20,000 or 19,200–19,000).
• Conservative: Look for daily closes beyond 20,200 or under 19,000 before committing to positions.
5. Adapt & React:
• If you see a bullish break that fails intraday (price wicks above 19,900 but closes back below 19,600 on a 4H candle), that’s a potential short signal.
• Conversely, if price dips intraday to 19,200–19,300, but the 4H closes back above 19,600, that’s a potential bullish reversal cue.
