2024-09-30 nas100Hello, this is Vivid. Here is today's Nasdaq analysis.
First, let's take a look at the daily chart. On Thursday, we saw a long bullish candlestick with a significant tail, and on Friday, there was a bearish candlestick that neutralized the previous day's gains. Although the low slightly dipped, there was a slight upward movement toward the end of Friday’s session, leaving room for potential upside. If the Nasdaq breaks above 20,120 on the daily chart, there is a high possibility of further upward movement and a rally. However, if it fails to break this level, considering the trend of lower lows, we must also remain open to the possibility of further decline.
Currently, there is some supply and demand pressure building within the blue box, but it cannot be considered a clear support level since the market is continuously setting lower lows. Therefore, even if we enter a short position, due to Nasdaq's tendency to fluctuate within this zone, there is a risk of stop losses being triggered or incurring losses within the range. The clear support level I'm watching is the lower end of the green box on the left, at 19,914.5. This is where the market previously bounced with a tweezer pattern. If this level breaks, we can assume that the Nasdaq has definitively entered the purple box, which represents the supply zone from where prices could fall to 19,732–19,623 with a high probability.
Now, for a buy strategy: the entry point is when the price breaks above the resistance trendline, particularly above 20,033.3. Since the previous high was acting as resistance, breaking this level opens up a slight possibility for the Nasdaq to rise to the green box, around 20,065. However, it's advisable not to place too much weight on this trade because, as mentioned earlier, the 20,120 resistance level is quite strong on the daily chart. We can only consider a bullish reversal for the Nasdaq if it successfully breaks this level. Until then, both buy and sell strategies should be approached with short-term goals, as any movements are likely to remain within the existing range.
Today, we have Powell's speech, so please be mindful of the volatility during that time. Wishing you all successful trades.
This has been Vivid.
NAS100 trade ideas
NASDAQ This rally isn't over yet.Three weeks ago (September 09, see chart below) we gave a very timely buy signal on Nasdaq (NDX), just after it touched its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line):
As you can see, the index started a relentless rally, breaking the August 22 High, and the Lower Highs trend-line in the process. We don't expect that Leg to be over yet. Based on the two previous Bullish Legs of the 2-year Channel Up, they first touched the Inner Higher Highs trend-line and then pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we expect a continuation of the upside with a short-term Target around 21000 and then after mid to end of October, pull-back towards the 1D MA50 going into the U.S. elections.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
The stock market is waiting for the release of PMI and NFP!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
If the index rises towards the supply zone, which is also at the intersection with the weekly pivot and the midline of the channel, you can look for sell positions in the Nasdaq index
A valid breakout of the downward drawn Fibonacci retracement will provide a downward path for the indicator to the specified support area and then the bottom of the ascending channel
bullish trend tradegood day traders, this is my USTEC analysis which is giving us a buying opportunity. As you can see we had a change of character and the continuation towards the upward movement, then price broke and retested our resistance which is now our support and H1 is starting to show a bullish confirmation which means the market will shoot up if the H1 candle closes as a bullish, then that will be our opportunity to enter a buy and go with the trend
NAS - ALL THE WAY NORTH We are going LONG NAS with tight stop loss at 19907
will take profit at 19996 bring STOP LOSS to BE once it reached first target
once it break the above 20004-20010, will let it run all the way toward 20075 and 20118
Will US100 NASDAQ Continue to Rise?When the US100 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue within the parallel channel. As long as the index price does not break down from the 19521 level, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 19826 level may exceed the 20313 level and target the 20548 level.
Short term sell N100The transaction was entered at the specified level, the sharp price movement enabled us to enter the transaction, at the same time, the 1H RSI divergence and the complete fading of the 5 waves strengthens the impression that correction will be made.
Nasdaq thoughts 3-Sept-2024Happy New Week all, Kindly see my Nasdaq thoughts for today. These videos are aimed at making you compare charts with mine if you are a price acton trader and use my thoughts to improve your skill. They are not meant as signals even if they seem like they are. I want you to learn and be great
US100 Sell to buy ideaWatching for buy entry on US100 after liquidity is taken out and price returns to my POI at support level at 19500, target is external liquidity at 20800 level
This is not a buy signal, it’s only a possible trading opportunity so DYOR
Long I’m Following Structure 15 Min
price broke previous low (wicks are personally breaks for me ) 19992.19
Price is forming a minor resistance on the 15 min timeframe
I need to see a break and retest of 20,075.90
And I’ll be entering in longs to 20,212.09
Nas100We looking for selling opportunities as the market has broken outside the bearish structure resulting in a reversal of sells to the downside|1H Timeframe
NFP week October 2024Bullish
I think in the beginning of the week we will
Either
Dip down into a weekly imbalance
or just head upwards upon open
I lean more towards dipping down first.
#NAS100USD 1HNAS100USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis
Pattern Identified: Bearish Market Bias with Sell Focus on Pullbacks
Forecast: Sell
Outlook for Next Week: Good Luck
On the 1-hour chart of NAS100USD (NASDAQ 100 Index), the market bias is strongly bearish, indicating a downward trend in price action. Given this bearish environment, the strategy focuses on looking for opportunities to sell during pullbacks. Pullbacks are temporary reversals in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, offering entry points for short positions before the market resumes its downward movement.
By identifying areas of resistance and key levels during these pullbacks, traders can time their entries more effectively, taking advantage of price retracements before the bearish momentum reasserts itself.
Actionable Insight: Traders should be patient and wait for pullbacks or retracements towards resistance levels or prior support-turned-resistance zones to initiate sell positions. It’s crucial to monitor these levels closely, as a failure to respect them could signal a potential shift in trend. Proper risk management, such as stop-loss placement above resistance areas, is essential to mitigate losses in case of unexpected market movements.
Good Luck for the Next Week: Stay focused, and may your trades be profitable!
NAS100 - Can Demand Hold This Week?20 SMA - BLUE
200 SMA - PINK
Key Confluence Areas: Grey Lines
How I see it:
A correction is required before continuation is possible.
When "Risk-On" sentiment deteriorates: Profit taking, and-or Middle East Tensions etc. Correction might be deeper on larger TF.
In this case I would watch structure support closely between 19000 & 18400.
Thank you for your time reading, boosting and/ or following my analysis.
I deeply appreciate it.
Us100 forecast Us100 forecast
Final forecast for 2024
Outlook.
Last 3 months of 2024 .
40 working days left for October -november
October
Hurricane season has hit and has left many devistated .
Us economic outlook for October seems bleak due to the country's situation but this can be looked at in a positive light due to the growth which will come from this such as 1958 coming out the ressesion where us was also hit by the same storm .
This will be the last 3 months candle for 2024 .
October bearish
Opening price at 19800
closing at 19500
19000 lowest
20300 highest
November
Opening price at 19500
Closing price at 20500
19500 lowest
21000 highest
December
Opening price at 20500
Closing price at 21000
20300 lowest
21200 highest closing year price
With the GDP forecasted at 166% by 2035
The us100 forecast closing range for 2025 is 25000 and the opening being in the range of 20500-21000 .
The decline well see from the climate impact will give the market the nessecarry correction for the upward stability.
October -bearish
November -december = bullish run
Nasdaq Consolidates with Bullish Potential Above 19,900Technical Analysis:
The Nasdaq is currently consolidating between 19900 and 20085.
Stability above 19,900 would signal a bullish trend towards 20085 and 20500.
However, if the index remains below 19900, it is likely to test 19800, with a break below this level confirming a bearish trend targeting 19680.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 19900
Resistance Levels: 20085, 20210, 20,530
Support Levels: 19800, 19690, 19400
Expected Trading Range for Today: 19800 to 20200
Trend:
Bullish while above 19900
previous idea:
NAS100 Possible ReversalWe observed price filling the IMB, closing below it, and an inversion block on September 26. This occurred immediately following a price trade above the prior monthly high, which in my opinion indicates significant liquidity. Everything I've read indicates that price is unwilling to move above that daily key level or area, so it's possible that price will reverse in an attempt to find new, significant liquidity levels and close any price inefficiencies. My daily goal is to reach 19.000 . However, while I wait for this to happen, I will be keeping a portion of my profits when price reaches 19,600 and 19,250 levels...
Navigating NAS100: How to Trade the Upcoming Downtrend!!!I. Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Elliott Wave Theory
Wave Count Summary:
The chart shows the completion of Wave 5 based on the hourly time frame, confirming a bearish setup.
Key invalidation point:
On the 1H chart: 19,571.1, meaning a break below this will confirm the extended Wave C.
On the 4H chart: 20,335.3, confirming a potential reversal if this level holds.
Wave 5 Projections:
Target range: 19,570.2 to 19,450.2 (for bearish continuation).
Invalidation for bearish bias: A move above 20,405.3 suggests an accumulation phase instead of distribution.
2. Wyckoff Distribution Phases
Current Phase: We are in Phase B, indicating a bearish trend.
Upthrust in Phase B (UT): Observed, signaling exhaustion in price momentum.
Sign of Weakness (SOW): Confirming bearish sentiment with lower highs.
Last Point of Supply (LPSY):
Key area: 20,189.7 - 20,350.2.
This region aligns with the premium area and can act as a resistance zone where sellers may dominate.
Bearish Continuation:
The price could move toward support levels between 19,570.2 - 19,450.2 after potential exhaustion at LPSY.
3. Harmonic & Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
OTE aligns with Fibonacci retracement zones (0.786 at 20,007.6) and the 0.826 retracement (20,147.9).
Shorting Opportunity: Focus on bearish positions when price revisits these zones, ideally between 20,007.6 and 20,350.2.
Harmonic Targets:
The next downside harmonic target coincides with 19,570.
A price reaction could also occur near 19,450, aligning with Wyckoff’s potential distribution phase climax.
II. ICT Weekly Range Development
Weekly Bias: Bearish, confirmed by Wyckoff and Elliott Wave projections.
Weekly High (WH): Likely formed at the LPSY zone around 20,189.7.
Weekly Low (WL): Expected near the 19,570 - 19,450 zone by Thursday/Friday.
ICT Daily/Weekly Ranges:
Monday to Wednesday:
Potential manipulation with an upward move toward LPSY (~20,350). Look for possible liquidity sweeps near this zone.
Thursday to Friday:
Price may drop toward the Weekly Low (WL) around 19,570 as institutions look to cover their short positions in the discount zone.
III. Fundamental Catalysts
Key economic events that will likely impact the NAS100 throughout the week:
U.S. Interest Rate Decision:
Bullish (BUY NAS): If the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut or holds rates steady, equities may benefit.
Bearish (SELL NAS): If rates are raised, equities (especially NAS100) could face downside pressure.
United States Manufacturing PMI (SELL NAS):
A weak PMI will signal economic contraction, driving the NAS100 lower.
ISM Services PMI (SELL NAS):
A poor reading will reflect economic slowdown, leading to further downside pressure.
U.S. Unemployment Rate (BUY NAS):
Lower unemployment could cushion the bearish trend by suggesting economic resilience. However, an uptick in unemployment could increase bearish sentiment.
IV. Trading Strategy and Execution
1. Key Levels for Short Entries
LPSY Zone (Resistance):
Watch for shorting opportunities around 20,189.7 - 20,350.2.
Ideal points for entering short positions are at premium areas or during spikes into resistance levels.
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE):
Watch for shorts near the OTE (0.786 - 0.826 retracement) between 20,007.6 - 20,147.9.
2. Downside Target Zones
First Target: 19,570.2
Aligns with Wyckoff’s Selling Climax (SC) zone.
Final Target: 19,450
Coincides with potential Wave 5 termination in Elliott Wave and harmonic extensions.
3. Risk Management
Stop-Loss Placement:
Above 20,405.3 (invalidation level), protecting against bullish reversals.
Short Position Execution:
Ideal timing for shorts:
Monday to Wednesday: Focus on potential false bullish moves, with the price reaching LPSY levels.
Thursday to Friday: Target the 19,570 - 19,450 range, where price may complete its bearish cycle.
V. Conclusion: Week Ahead Trading Plan
Bearish Outlook:
Multiple confirmations from Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, and harmonic retracements suggest further downside in NAS100.
Execution Plan:
Short around LPSY (20,189.7 - 20,350.2) and OTE zones (20,007.6 - 20,147.9).
Fundamental Consideration:
Stay vigilant for significant economic releases, particularly interest rates and PMI data, which could cause volatility and either support or invalidate the technical setups.
Risk Management:
Keep stops above invalidation points (20,405.3) and target 19,570 - 19,450 for profits.
Does the technology stock price need a break?According to the downward momentum of the price movement, if the range of 19800 units is broken and the price stabilizes below it, the price may fall to the range of 19600 units, and in the case of the strength of the range of 19400 units
Otherwise, the possibility of price increase up to the range of 20150 units.
NASDAQ Potential Retracement and Bearish ContinuationThe current price action shows the market pushing into significant supply zones. We can identify both a 5-minute FVG (Fair Value Gap) and a 1-hour FVG in the area between 20,318 and 20,640, indicating potential for price rejection.
After this push into the FVG, I anticipate a retracement towards the 19,473 - 19,253 zone, which aligns with the Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% - 62%. A deeper pullback towards 79% (18,690) is also possible, supported by the presence of a 4-hour and Daily FVG below, suggesting an extended bearish move.
If price fails to hold these levels, the downside potential could be significant, targeting the 18,679 zone and potentially beyond. This scenario lines up with broader market conditions, where we could see a significant sell-off.
Bear in mind that further confirmation is needed on lower timeframes before entering short positions. A clean rejection from the 1-hour FVG zone will serve as the main trigger for this bearish continuation.
Nas100 bullish continuation on effectAlthough I don't trade Nasdaq, I decided to share this as it has all the properties to make it a perfect setup (SMC). We also have a supporting analysis of the trendline (Bullish trend)
Checklist:
1. We have price close just above our fresh low of week an failing to displace. Possible sellside liquidity sweep.
2. Break of structure to the upside
3. Demand zone below our low of week
4. Trend is overall bullish
5. Bullish Flag pattern (trendline strategy) near breakout zone
Comment your view and tell me how you plan your approach on this one.✌️🌟 goodluck y'all.
Nasdaq preparing for further Bullish Move?US100 seems to be trying to fetch more momentum for its Bullish Outlook!
