NAS100USD: Is this a False Break?Greetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe sustained bullish volatility, indicating that the institutional order flow remains decisively bullish. As such, our objective is to align with that momentum and seek opportunities to position ourselves accordingly.
Current Market Context:
Now entering the New York session, we can anticipate continued upward movement. A key technical development is the recent liquidity sweep—price action took out a set of sell stops, creating the appearance of a potential bearish break of structure. However, this movement aligns with a classic “Turtle Soup” scenario, where a false break is engineered to trap liquidity before the market resumes in its dominant direction.
Institutional Insight:
This sweep suggests that institutions have likely order paired against willing sellers, using their stops as entry liquidity. With that liquidity now absorbed and price rejecting lower levels, we look for bullish confirmations to join the smart money narrative.
Trading Focus:
We are now monitoring for lower-timeframe confirmation entries to validate bullish setups, ideally supported by institutional arrays or bullish order blocks that hold as support.
Let the market reveal the footprints of smart money—our role is to read and respond with discipline.
Regards,
The Architect
NAS100 trade ideas
Prices are entering critical battleground between bulls & bears(The following is solely personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.)
Last week, the market was driven by positive news and continued its upward breakout, now surpassing the 200-day moving average.
This week, attention should be paid to price and volume performance. If prices fail to break higher convincingly, a pullback may begin. However, if positive sentiment continues to dominate, the upward trend could persist.
Key resistance levels are at 20,700 and 21,070. If the price breaks above 20,700 this week without showing signs of significant retracement, the market may test higher levels.
On the downside, the key support zone lies between 19,978 and 20,255. If the price struggles to maintain upward momentum and consolidates below the 200-day moving average, the likelihood of a downward reversal increases. The first target on the downside would then be in the 18,277 to 18,588 range.
Last week’s performance serves as a reminder that when most expect the Fed’s FOMC decisions to trigger a market drop, prices often behave contrary to expectations. In the current market environment, it’s crucial to recognize that the market won’t rise or fall indefinitely. At critical price levels, risk control and timely position adjustments are essential.
NASDAQ's Inverse H&S that targets $25000Nasdaq (NDX) is forming the Right Shoulder of a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. The price action is 'stuck' within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which got tested on Friday for the first time since March, and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Since the 1D MA200 was the level that initiated the March 26 rejection, it is possible to see a short-term pull-back now, all in the process of forming the Right Shoulder and after the market digests the new Fed Rate Decision, starts the next Leg Up. Note that the 1D RSI is already on its February highs.
As a result, our long-term Target is at 25000, just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, which is a standard technical target for IH&S patterns.
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NASDAQ Weekly Outlook - Potential ShortsPrice pushed up on Friday 25 May into an area of imbalance at 20170 and closed.
Then we have Monday which pushed up through out the day and failed to break and close above Friday 25th Hi, ending the day inside of Fridays candle followed by Tuesday being bear and failing to break and close above Monday hi candle but managed to break and close below Mondays candle close.
By this creating the high of the week, on a weekly time frame, reason for the short is to fill the daily volume imbalance highlighted in yellow. As price always needs to fill gaps in the market left behind by inefficient price action.
Only then I assume one could start looking for longs, as all sell side liquidity has been cleared.
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for FOMC?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index continues to move upwards towards 21,000 points, we can look for the next Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio.
Last week, U.S. equity markets experienced $8.9 billion in capital outflows, while equity markets in Japan and the European Union saw net inflows. Additionally, U.S. Treasury bonds recorded an outflow of $4.5 billion—the largest since December 2023. Meanwhile, the gold market witnessed its first weekly investment decline since January.
Looking ahead, financial markets are focused on the upcoming earnings reports from major companies across sectors such as technology, healthcare, automotive, energy, and financial services. These reports are expected to significantly influence equity trends, investment strategies, and corporate outlooks. Below is a daily breakdown of key companies set to release earnings this week:
Monday, May 5, 2025
The week starts with a focus on the healthcare and biotech sectors:
• Before market open: Companies such as Palantir, Ford, Onsemi, and Tyson Foods will report earnings. Palantir and Ford are particularly noteworthy for investors in the tech and auto sectors.
• After market close: Healthcare firms like Hims & Hers Health, Axsome Therapeutics, and financial company CNA Financial will report.
Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Tuesday highlights several key tech earnings:
• Before market open: Celsius, Datadog, Rivian, and Tempus will publish their results. Rivian’s report is especially anticipated due to the intense competition in the electric vehicle space.
• After market close: Tech giants like AMD and Arista Networks will release earnings, along with Marriott from the hospitality sector.
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
A packed day for earnings reports:
• Before market open: Reports from Uber and Teva are expected, along with ARM Holdings, a key player in semiconductors.
• After market close: AppLovin, Unity, and Robinhood will release their reports—representing digital gaming, software, and fintech respectively.
Thursday, May 8, 2025
This day centers on digital health, cryptocurrency, and e-commerce:
• Before market open: Peloton and Shopify will report. Shopify’s performance is particularly critical in the online retail sector.
• After market close: Crypto firm Coinbase and online sports betting platform DraftKings are in focus.
Friday, May 9, 2025
Fewer companies will report, but some are of strategic interest:
• Firms like 1stdibs, Ani Pharmaceuticals, and Embecta are scheduled, as well as Telos and Algonquin—key names in energy and cybersecurity investing.
This week, markets are closely monitoring Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. At the March session, the Fed left rates unchanged and signaled only two potential cuts totaling 50 basis points for the year, based on its dot plot—suggesting a cautious approach to monetary easing.
Simultaneously, April’s U.S. Services PMI is set to be released today, providing clearer insights into post-tariff business activity.
Amazon’s CEO stated that, so far, there is no indication of reduced demand due to tariff concerns. Some inventory spikes were noted in specific categories, likely driven by stockpiling ahead of tariff implementation. Retail prices, on average, have not significantly increased, and most sellers have yet to raise prices—though that could change depending on how tariff policies evolve. Notably, essential goods have grown at twice the rate of other categories and now account for a third of all unit sales in the U.S.
Following April’s jobs report, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June dropped from 75% to 42%. With only one more employment report due before the June 18 meeting, hopes for an early policy shift have faded. Some analysts argue that without the tariff conflict, the Fed might already be cutting rates, given the downward trend in inflation, steady growth, and Congressional focus on fiscal measures.
The April jobs data showed that the U.S. labor market remains resilient—neither too strong to spark inflation fears nor too weak to trigger panic. After the release, with market confidence rebounding, Goldman Sachs forecasted the Fed’s first rate cut to come at the July 30 meeting.
The consensus expectation is for the Fed funds rate to remain in the current 4.25%-4.5% range, unchanged since January. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns just a 1.8% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
Economists warn that Trump’s newly imposed tariffs—active since April—could drive up prices and hurt employment, challenging the Fed’s dual mandate of controlling both inflation and joblessness. However, recent data shows inflation remained mild in March and the labor market held steady in April.
Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote: “The data is strong enough for the Fed to stay on the sidelines and monitor how tariffs influence inflation and expectations.” While hard data remains stable, forecasts and sentiment surveys signal looming challenges. Business leaders and individuals express concern that rising costs may burden consumers and businesses in the coming months or years, possibly even tipping the economy into recession.
#NDQ - What does these lines say? Do they work?Hey, hope you are all doing great!
I strongly believe that you are looking at these charts to your advantage. Are the lines marked in these charts make any sense? Do these lines really work? check out these charts at a lower time frames and see. Since these are directionless, how to read?
Current Price: 20061.45
Mid-line: 19927.42
Upside: 20783.90, 21216.80, 21700.31 and 22183.83
Downside: 19072.54, 18638.04, 18154.52 and 17671.00
#NDQ
Understanding the Crab's Potential Ascent Before the DescentCurrent market analysis suggests a potential temporary surge in the Nasdaq index, colloquially referred to as a "crab walk," possibly reaching a level of 20.4 before a significant correction.
While this upward movement may present short-term opportunities, it is crucial to recognize its potential transience.
X2: NQ/US100/NAS100 Short - Day Trades 1:2X2:
Risking 1% to make 2%
NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Short for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 2%
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 13 May 2025- Nasdaq-100 broke resistance area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 21500.00
Nasdaq-100 index recently broke the resistance area between the resistance level 20220.00 (which has been reversing the index from March) and the resistance trendline of the Ascending Triangle from April.
The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active short-term ABC correction 2 from last month.
Nasdaq-100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 21500.00 (target price for the completion of the active wave 2).
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USTEC is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 20,418.65
1st Support: 19,265.30
1st Resistance: 21,137.24
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Lesson 12: NasDaq100 Price Consolidation and Breakout Zone NasDaq price action analysis on consolidation zone. Using a break-out strategy, we waited for price to consolidate ( $20,755-$20,812.30 zone) on the 15min timeframe to breakout at $20,812.30 for our indication, correction and bullish price continuation, targeting price at $20,888.50. Price closed above $20,888.50 (resistance) thus we hold profits until we see price reversal.
NASDAQ Fall? US100 AnalysisHello everyone.
We had a volatility at stock market last 2 month, it looks like market had good correction and found new buyer. BUT I DON'T THINK LIKE THAT.
After MR. Trump inauguration we saw bear market signals, it was like hedge funds dumped stocks, but after strong sell new buyers came at market and show us pretty good market correction but what will be next? The last 2 months brought intense volatility post-Trump’s inauguration. Hedge funds sold off heavily (S&P 500 dropped ~8% from its December high), but buyers stepped in, pushing a 5% retracement. RSI on SPY shows oversold conditions fading, yet I’m skeptical of this bounce.
Why? Bearish signals linger. VIX remains elevated (>20), and volume on up days is weaker than selloffs. Plus, geopolitics could derail this rally. Over the weekend, Ukraine and Russia discussed a 30-day ceasefire. If talks fail, the West’s new sanctions could spike oil prices (Brent crude already testing $80) and hammer energy-heavy indices like XLE or European markets (DAX).
I’m watching SPY’s 200-day MA (~510) as key support. A break below could signal a deeper pullback to 480. Energy and tech (QQQ) look vulnerable if sanctions hit. What’s your take—buying this dip or bracing for more downside?
Here is my 2 scene what i am expect from market, for me Scene and technical view scene 2 is more logical bur we will see what will be next step for stock market.
For collaboration text me in DM!!!
Always make your own research!!!
US100 - Perfect Long Opportunities Unfolding?This chart illustrates a high-probability bullish setup based on a combination of market structure shifts, fair value gaps (FVGs), Fibonacci retracement confluence, and order block interaction. We are analyzing the US Tech 100 on the 1-hour timeframe, focusing on recent price action development and a potential reversal scenario forming after a corrective move.
Context and Market Structure:
Price action has been in a corrective downtrend after printing a local high near the 19,950–20,000 range. This move led to a break in short-term bullish structure as sell-side liquidity was swept. A series of bearish candles followed, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside.
However, the retracement stalled upon entering a prior area of imbalance—highlighted here as a larger fair value gap (FVG) zone. This FVG zone acted as a significant demand area, with price reacting strongly upon entry. The zone is marked with a light blue shaded rectangle and aligns with a 1-hour bullish order block.
Price created a swing low in this FVG area before forming higher lows, suggesting the possibility of a short-term reversal.
Golden Pocket & Liquidity Sweep:
A key zone of interest is the "Golden Pocket downtrend" area, which is derived from the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels of the last impulse down. Price previously respected this zone, leading to a rejection and continuation lower. This makes it a notable supply area. Price may revisit this zone as a target or potential reaction point on the next bullish leg.
Note how the initial reaction from the FVG brought the market back into a smaller 1H FVG, situated just beneath the 0.5 retracement level. The internal structure within this zone supports a bullish outlook due to the formation of a higher low followed by a bullish engulfing candle.
Fibonacci Confluence & Execution Levels:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move aligns closely with the midpoint of the bullish FVG, providing confluence for a potential re-entry or continuation point. This level is annotated on the chart and highlighted with a horizontal line labeled "0.618 - Entry." This suggests it may act as a magnet for price before further continuation to the upside.
The 0.786 retracement level, also plotted on the chart, indicates the deeper end of the retracement spectrum and lies just above a major structural low. This region, though aggressive, would represent a final line of defense for bullish continuation.
Projection and Price Path:
Based on the current structure and bullish reaction from the FVG zone, a potential price path is drawn on the chart. It suggests one more liquidity grab into the FVG area followed by an impulsive move to the upside.
The blue projection line outlines a potential retracement to fill the nearby FVG (which remains partially unmitigated), followed by a resumption of bullish momentum that targets a revisit to the previous high area around 19,875.
Additional Notes:
* Multiple FVGs are actively interacting in this region, giving layered confluence for demand zones.
* The reaction from the FVG zone is coupled with a bullish engulfing pattern on the 1-hour timeframe, signaling aggressive buying.
* Price remains above the internal bullish structure despite the earlier rejection from the Golden Pocket area.
Conclusion:
The chart setup represents a textbook example of FVG demand zone reaction, supported by Fibonacci confluence and market structure shifts. As price consolidates above this key FVG, a continuation to the upside becomes a strong probability if the internal structure remains intact. Traders should monitor price behavior on lower timeframes as it interacts with the 0.618 and FVG zones for confirmation of bullish continuation.
NDX - NOW IT IS ALMOST READYMorning,
I was a bit gun shy this morning for that trade - there was no rejection of resistance and it kept going, luckily without confirmation I never entered. However we are now seeing the start of a potential confirmation to retest down to previous support.
Hourly:
Oversold RSI with two tops forming.
Volume is starting to dip and has rejected higher volume profile.
Momentum is starting to top out just waiting to see if it wavers downwards.
Just waiting on that candle to close lower on the hourly and will continue following if our RSI crosses the EMA point.
I know being patience sucks but its better than loosing money!
Enjoy