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NASDAQ on the Brink: Major Pullback Ahead? A Look at the Market Greetings, traders and market visionaries! It’s Lord Medz here once again, and today we’ll be analyzing the NASDAQ and the potential for a massive pullback, similar to what we discussed with the US500. However, this time we’re also going to dive into an important indicator that’s flashing warning signs for the broader economy—the US Treasury Yield Curve, specifically the inversion between the 2-year and 10-year yields. The NASDAQ is currently at a critical juncture, having completed five supercycle waves according to the Elliott Wave Principle. The market could be on the verge of a sharp correction, and when paired with the concerning yield curve inversion, the stakes couldn’t be higher. NASDAQ’s Elliott Wave Mega Cycle: Are We Done? Over the past several years, the NASDAQ has surged thanks to the tech boom, accommodative monetary policies, and investor enthusiasm. However, based on Elliott Wave analysis, it appears that the NASDAQ may have completed five supercycle waves, potentially signaling the end of this massive bullish phase. Here’s what we’re watching: Five-Wave Completion: According to Elliott Wave theory, markets move in repetitive wave patterns, and the NASDAQ may have completed its fifth and final impulse wave of the current supercycle. Retracement Ahead? If we are indeed at the end of this supercycle, the NASDAQ could be on the cusp of a 50%, 60%, or even 70% pullback. This would mean a significant retracement from current highs, potentially wiping out gains made since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. Potential Pullback Scenarios 50% Pullback: A correction of this magnitude would take the NASDAQ back to levels near 7000-8000, which represents a substantial drop but would still leave the long-term bullish structure intact. 60% to 70% Pullback: In the event of a deeper correction, we could see the NASDAQ falling to levels below 6000, erasing years of gains. This would be similar to the aftermath of the dot-com bubble crash, where the market underwent a severe reset before recovering. The key levels to watch are 7000, 6000, and the 5000 range. A break below these levels could signal more trouble ahead, and a possible shift in long-term market structure. The US Treasury Yield Curve: A Key Warning Sign Adding to the concern is the inversion of the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Historically, this yield curve inversion is a reliable indicator of a looming recession. Here’s what’s happening: Inverted Yield Curve: Normally, longer-term bonds (like the 10-year) should offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds (like the 2-year) because investors demand more return for taking on longer-term risk. However, when the 10-year yield falls below the 2-year yield, it signals that investors expect economic trouble ahead. Recession Indicator: This yield curve inversion has occurred before most recessions in modern US history, including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2001 dot-com bubble. In fact, the yield curve has inverted again in 2023, raising alarms about the possibility of a recession within the next 12 to 18 months. When the yield curve is inverted, it implies that short-term economic risks are rising, and market participants are flocking to the safety of longer-term bonds. This can lead to tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity—factors that could heavily impact the tech-heavy NASDAQ. The Yield Curve and the NASDAQ The NASDAQ, with its high exposure to growth stocks, tends to be particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates and the broader economic environment. A sustained yield curve inversion can lead to: Higher borrowing costs for businesses, particularly in the tech sector, which thrives on cheap capital for innovation and growth. Rising rates can squeeze margins and dampen investor enthusiasm for growth stocks. Decreased consumer spending, as higher short-term rates make borrowing more expensive for households and businesses alike. This can lead to lower revenues for companies, particularly in discretionary and tech sectors. Recession fears translating into lower stock prices, as investors begin to price in slower economic growth and shrinking corporate profits. Given these factors, the combination of a completed Elliott Wave supercycle and an inverted yield curve suggests that the NASDAQ may face substantial headwinds in the coming months. Conclusion: Is a Major Pullback Inevitable? We are at a critical stage in the NASDAQ’s journey, and the signals are flashing red. With the Elliott Wave analysis pointing to the end of a major supercycle and the inverted US Treasury yield curve signaling potential recessionary conditions, the risk of a major correction seems high. Whether we see a 50%, 60%, or 70% pullback, the coming months could be pivotal. The yield curve inversion should not be ignored, as it historically precedes economic downturns—and a downturn in the broader economy will almost certainly impact the tech sector and the NASDAQ. For traders and investors, this is a time to be cautious. As always, it’s essential to manage risk, diversify holdings, and keep an eye on key support levels. A major correction could present long-term opportunities, but only for those who are prepared to weather the storm. Stay sharp, stay informed, and trade with care. Peace, Lord MEDZ. Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Skinwah
1
NASDAQ: Critical breakout ahead that can send it to 22kNasdaq is almost overbought on the lower time-frames but just turned bullish on 1D (RSI = 55.402, MACD = -62.050, ADX = 25.952) and the main reason is that it closed over the 1D MA50 yesterday. This can't be considered a bullish signal on its own as the LH trendline is right over it and is being tested today. If broken, it is very likely to see the next bullish wave of the Channel Up. The previous two waves confirmed the uptrend after a candle closed over the LH. If that happens, we will aim for a new Channel Up HH at the end of the year, almost at +31% from the bottom (TP = 22,000) like March's High. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
1
NASDAQ=> Breakout, 19900 next?Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NASDAQ for a buying opportunity around 19300 zone, NASDAQ was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 19300 support and resistance zone. Once we get any bullish confirmation a decent target will be 19900 as it's considered the next major resistance NASDAQ will be facing. Trade safe, Joe.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by JoeChampion
UPDATE ON NAS100NAS100 1D - As you can see price has traded perfectly now into this zone, so those of you who bought into this market based on previous analysis I would look to close in profit or take partials and apply safety measures. We are now wanting to see price either hold from this zone giving us bearish opportunities or trade us through absorbing price up and taking us up and into the zone above in order for us to get involved in longer term shorts. I wan to see price deliver us with relevant pieces of confirmation before we look to go short, as you all know this will come from structure breaks to the downside, we want to be looking at the fractal structure inside of this correction. Once price has delivered us with a fractal break of structure to the downside we have the confirmation we need to suggest that the current correction has finished and a new bearish leg is ready to take place.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Lukegforex
2
NAS100USD / TRADING BELOW SUPPLY ZONE - 4H NAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS yesterday prices rising +225 pip profit currently trading below the resistance trend line may be rising into supply zone after decline to reach 19,187. As long as the price remains below 19,954, a decline is expected, with potential targets of 19,187 and subsequently 18,688. However, if the price breaks above 19,954, the trend is likely to shift upwards, initially aiming for 20,194 and potentially reaching as high as 20,714. TURNING LEVEL : 19,954
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by ArinaKarayi
1
USNAS100 - Key Levels, Retest Potential, and Sensitive Movement Nasdaq Technical Analysis The price has advanced by approximately 300 pips, as previously noted. It remains on track to reach 19535, after which a significant retest down to 19290 and potentially 19160 is possible before resuming the upward move. Sustained stability above 19535 would further support a rally toward 19680 and 19970. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 19535 Resistance Levels: 19680, 19810, 19970 Support Levels: 19290, 19160, 18920 Expected Trading Range Today: 19160 to 19625 Trend: The market is highly sensitive; an uptrend is expected above 19535, while a downtrend may develop if the price remains below this level. previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USD
by SroshMayi
“Nasdaq Continues Its Uptrend”Expectations that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week are being maintained. This situation is perceived positively for the indices. By the end of the year, a total rate cut of 100 basis points is almost certain. The CPI and PPI data suggest that the Fed might not need to cut rates as aggressively as the market had anticipated. Technically, if the resistance level at 19,500 is permanently surpassed, the rise could gain momentum towards the 19,700 and then 19,950 resistance levels. On the downside, if the index falls below the 19,100 level, a pullback towards the support levels at 18,800 and then 18,450 might be seen.
NASDAQ:NDX
by primequotes
NAS100 1:6RR trade ideaIn the recent rate cuts and CPI news, the stocks have gained impulsively(Technology sector up +6%). The overall trend is still bearish as we expect to see a 7-10% correction in the stock market in September. Currently NAS100 has reached our level of interest(19450), which has been a strong support/resistance level in the past. Here we look for shorts targeting 19250 and 19100. Should we break 19450, we look for buys up to 20k. Will update next week. As always, trade safe and expect the unexpected. Fractals Trading Community, Mei
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by martinmei
US100 19.220.6 +2.21% + S&P 500 MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS on NAS 100 & S&P500. NAS100 WEEKLY TF * 2 WEEKS bearish run delivering from the -FVG On the NAS100 & S&P500 from the weekly might have just ran its course. * With the week opening on a bullish run, looking for that monthly FVG TO HOLD. * Looking for a bullish week close and continuation with the bulls. * with a -FVG & -OB looking for a small reversal possibly short term but overall bullish. * Because The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in BULLISH conditions on the NAS100 & S&P500. ON THE S&P500 M & W * The setup is clearer or price action is somewhat cleaner. MONTHLY WEEKLY DAILY TF * Looking for violation of the daily FVG. * To confirm bullish continuation *S&P500 4H * still bullish on NAS100 Trend cont. favored until otherwise price shows some significant bearish moves. * otherwise choch + for bullish moves * looking for a bounce of + OB SENTIMENTS THE SAME ON THE S&P500 1H TF * Sentiment remains, remain bullish unless otherwise. * Probably be looking for LONG OPPORTUNITIES otherwise, We will see what does the market dish. 🤷‍♂️😉🐻📉🐮📈 HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by PULEMokhothu
6
NAS100 at a Crucial Juncture: What’s Next for the Index?In my previous NAS100 analysis, I mentioned that as long as 19,500 held as resistance, a drop to 17,000 was likely. Initially, the index did begin to fall, but it found strong support at the April all-time high (ATH) and reversed upward. Now, the price is once again approaching this crucial resistance. Looking at the chart, we can clearly see the significance of this confluence, marked by the falling trend line, the horizontal level, and the retest of the broken channel support. A break above this level would put NAS100 back on a bullish track, potentially targeting the previous ATH, with an extension toward 22,000 where the channel's resistance lies. On the flip side, for bears to gain control, a bearish engulfing pattern needs to form today.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Mihai_Iacob
NAS 100 - "SHORT" then "LONG"20 SMA - Blue 200 SMA - Pink Key Confluence areas: Grey Lines Structure Supports & Resistances: Green & Red Dash Lines How I see it: SHORT - TP: 19000 Then LONG - TP 1: 19460 LONG - TP 2: 19940 1) If demand holds between 19000 & 18800, a short-term reversal is immanent. 2) A break below 18800, price will continue down and will also confirm a break of bullish structure. The 2 x SMA's is also on route to a possible cross in the near future, this will be key to monitor if price is below or above the cross at that time. Thank you for your time to read, boost and/or follow my analysis. I deeply appreciate it.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by ANROC