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NAS100 trade ideas

US100 - Strong uptrend will probably continueThe Nasdaq 100 has demonstrated remarkable strength in its recent uptrend, pushing to new highs above 22,100. However, the current price action suggests the market may be slightly overextended in the short term, making a pullback to the marked support zone around 21,800-21,900 a potential opportunity for more favorable entry points. Given the overall bullish market structure and momentum, any retracements should be viewed as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. The upward trajectory remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that after a healthy pullback, the index could continue its ascent toward new highs above 22,300. Traders should watch for price action confirmation and potential bullish setups around the marked support level.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by financialflagship
NSDQ Uptrend supported at 21840The NSDQ100 (USTec) price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a bullish breakout. The key trading level is at 21840 level, previous resistance now newly formed support. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 21840 level could target the upside resistance at 22250 followed by the 22500 and 22620 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 21840 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 21640 support level followed by 21420. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by TradeNation
NAS100 - Nasdaq is setting a new ATH!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the marked trend line, which is also intersecting the demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. At the start of the week, the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly after President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. He also stated that any country imposing tariffs on American products would face reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. Later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his congressional testimony, emphasized that the central bank is in no hurry to implement further rate cuts. Additionally, data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January came in higher than expected, further supporting the dollar. Although the dollar experienced a slight correction on Thursday and Friday, these factors, combined with a strong non-farm payroll report for January, led investors to anticipate a rate cut of only 30 basis points for the year. This outlook is more hawkish than the Federal Reserve’s own forecast of a 50-basis-point reduction. In other words, traders in financial markets have fully priced in just a single 0.25% rate cut by December. Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, revealed in an interview with CBS’s Face The Nation that he meets regularly with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He stressed that these meetings are not intended to influence interest rate policy and that Powell’s independence is respected, although the President’s views are still conveyed. Hassett also pointed out that long-term yields have declined, with a 40-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, indicating market expectations of lower inflation. Retail sales data showed a 0.9% decline following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in December. Out of 13 reported categories, nine recorded declines, with the largest drops observed in automobiles, sporting goods, and furniture stores. Following a tense week filled with impactful economic news, the upcoming week is expected to be quieter and shorter, as U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents’ Day. Key economic events for the week include the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Tuesday, the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, and U.S. housing starts and building permits data on Wednesday. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. Finally, Friday will see the publication of preliminary S&P Flash PMI reports and existing home sales data.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
1
Upcoming Weekly AnalysisFA Analysis: 1- From macro-economic perspective, next week we have the Fed Minutes which is irrelevant and late in the week very relevant data to confirm the economic slowdown. 2- Trump likes attention; so expect every day at least one tweet. TA Analysis: 1- Price reached last year high. Price closed very bullish in weekly and daily, but just below last year high. 2- Price completed the compression to the top. 3- My ST&MT Outlook is Sell . Hence, I see price going to visit the bottom of the weekly range. Wish you a relaxing weekend and a green upcoming weeks!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
Nas100NAS100 is approaching a key resistance level at 22,000—a strong barrier that has held firm in the past. 🔹 If price breaks above 22,000, we look for a confirmed breakout and take an entry. 🔹 If it gets rejected, our first support zone is 21,830 to 21,850. Why is this level important? ✅ The 9 EMA aligns as support ✅ It previously acted as a key resistance twice before turning into support If price drops further, our next key support is 21,820, and below that, we have a strong buy zone at 21,650. Why? ✅ It aligns with the trendline support ✅ The 20 EMA adds confluence By watching these levels closely, we can react accordingly and position for high-probability trades!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Sharpshane
NAS100USD: Retracement to Target Sell Stops Below Support ZoneGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, while the market is currently showing bullish momentum, there are clear signs that we may experience a retracement toward the downside. This move would likely target the discount sell stops below the illustrated support zone, providing an opportunity to align with institutional order flow. KEY OBSERVATIONS: Institutional Resistance Zone: A strong order block has formed, creating a significant resistance level that price may struggle to break through. This order block, coupled with the Fair Value Gap (FVG) beneath it, strengthens the bearish case. These two institutional resistance zones suggest a higher likelihood of a retracement. Premium Price Zone: Price is currently trading in a premium range, a favorable area to monitor for potential selling opportunities upon confirmation. Liquidity Target : Our primary target is the discount sell stops resting below an engineered support zone. This zone is a key draw on liquidity, where we anticipate significant institutional interest. TRADING PLAN: Entry Strategy : Wait for confirmation before entering short positions at the current premium price level. Targets : Focus on the liquidity pools below the support zone, particularly the discount sell stops, as these represent the main draw on liquidity. Patience and precision are crucial. By following institutional clues, we can effectively position ourselves for high-probability trades. Happy Trading! The Architect 🏛📊
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
1
More possibilities here, but overall bullish on nas100From what i am seeing, market strukture looks bullish to me. Now the question is whether markets will make some pullback or just go straight up. I feel like markets will make pullback, take liquidity or fill 4h imbalance. From fundamental side of thing, the pullback can be caused by 0.9% drop in retail sales. But that's about all of the importance that could support my idea. Overall, I will be looking for long trades as the US economy appears to be strong despite the increased tariffs and the market structure suggests the same. Tell me your perspective on the situation, I'd love to learn :)
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Filip_Kozak
Remains bullish and wait for reversal signalLast week, both CPI and PPI data came in below expectations, indicating signs of rising inflation. However, the market did not experience a sharp decline; instead, prices held above 21,432, demonstrating strong support. This market reaction suggests that seller were not willing to enter at this stage. The market maintained its uptrend, broke through previous highs, and reached the target level on Friday, surpassing the 21,968 and 22,100 resistance levels consecutively. As long as there are no technical signals indicating a market reversal, the overall outlook for next week remains bullish. The next price target is 22,465, and attention should be paid to the market's performance within the 22,300–22,465 range to further assess its direction. From a long-term perspective, I still believe that U.S. tech stocks are overvalued, and various risk factors could trigger a downturn. And the potential correction could be significant. My specific views can be referenced in my previous market commentary from February 3–7, 2025. Therefore, when taking long positions, it is crucial to remain vigilant about market sentiment shifts, as the market could reverse at any time. I will wait for technical confirmation on the 4-hour chart and enter short positions once reversal signals appear.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by zygliu
1
NAS100USD Is Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 21,661.7. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 21,981.2 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SignalProvider
1
NASDAQ-100 Breakout: What's Next for the Market? We finally got the NASDAQ-100 breakout we were looking for! In this video, we break down the trade setup, risk-reward ratio, and why the bullish case still makes sense. We analyze the ascending triangle pattern, key support levels, and potential trade strategies moving forward. With stock indices pushing higher, could this also signal upside potential for crypto? Plus, we discuss how easing trade tensions and potential peace talks could fuel market optimism. What’s your take on this move? Let us know in the comments! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
THINKMARKETS:NAS100Long
by ThinkMarkets
Possible BUYThe Market would want make new all time highs but before it does that we looking to take out the internal liquidity marked on the chart. The external liquidity is the previous day low which seem unlikely to be taken out. There is also a Inverse FVG on (2H) that I'm looking at and from there i would be looking to buys. SL is previous low, TP1 is previous high and TP2 is ALH. The market could also take out the ATH before coming done but i would wait till it comes down first to enter
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by FTAltd
FULL TRADE-ABLE SET UPS FOR NASDAQ 100 1. Macro & Market Overview Strong U.S. Economic Backdrop: • The United States is outpacing other major economies, with ~3% GDP growth and inflation moderating near 2.9%, supporting a “soft landing” scenario. This underpins bullish sentiment for U.S. equities, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. Monetary Policy & Earnings: • The Federal Reserve has paused rate hikes, maintaining a tight-but-on-hold stance (Fed Funds ~4.25–4.50%). Markets expect no immediate cuts but anticipate eventual easing later in the year, keeping rate-sensitive growth stocks afloat. • Nasdaq 100 earnings remain solid thanks to big tech’s strong profits; hedge funds retain net long exposure in Nasdaq futures, though they are more defensive overall. Institutional Sentiment & Positioning: • Hedge funds are selectively bullish on technology, while also hedging broader market risks. Retail investors remain optimistic, reinforcing tech’s upward bias. • Global liquidity is no longer “superabundant,” yet no severe credit stress exists; interest rates remain high but stable, which still supports equity valuations for high-quality growth names. Key Macro Risk Factors to Watch: • Potentially hotter-than-expected inflation data could spark another wave of rate-hike concerns, pressuring high-valuation tech stocks. • Any major escalation in trade policy (e.g. tariffs on key tech components) could weigh on the Nasdaq 100, given many constituents’ global supply chains. Overall, the macro backdrop leans positive for large-cap U.S. tech, though caution persists due to high valuations and geopolitical uncertainties. 2. Technical & Institutional Flow Perspective • Hedge Fund Positioning: Futures positioning shows hedge funds net long the Nasdaq 100, reflecting conviction in secular growth themes (AI, cloud), even as they hedge other parts of the equity market. • Liquidity Conditions: There is no acute repo or funding stress, which generally supports risk assets. However, flows into money market funds signal that institutions are keeping some “dry powder” to buy dips. • Options & Gamma: A positive gamma environment often stabilizes equity prices, yet heavier put buying late in the week signals an increasing desire to hedge. If put volume continues to rise, short-term volatility could pick up quickly. 3. US100 Price Action & Key Technical Levels Overall Trend: • Long-term (Weekly) and medium-term (Daily) trends remain bullish, with higher highs and higher lows since 2023. • Recent price action is range-bound between roughly 21,400–21,500 (support) and 21,800–22,000 (resistance). Consolidation Zone: • The Nasdaq 100 (US100) has been coiling just under strong resistance at ~22,000. Price repeatedly bounces off the 21,400–21,500 region intraday, indicating institutional buying interest. Momentum Indicators: • On daily and 4-hour charts, RSI hovers in neutral territory (50–55 region), and MACD is near the zero line. This confirms a sideways consolidation within a larger uptrend. • No significant bearish divergences have formed; momentum has simply cooled, awaiting fresh catalysts to drive a breakout. Key Zones to Watch: • Support: 21,400–21,500 (short-term intraday floor), then 21,000–21,200 (deeper daily support). • Resistance: 21,700–22,000. A clear break above 22,000 could open upside targets (e.g. 22,500+). 4. Potential Trade Setups Below are three sample strategies—one aiming for a range breakout, one for a pullback entry, and one for a range fade—depending on how price reacts around the current consolidation zone. A) Bullish Breakout Trade Rationale: • The primary trend is bullish, macro data remain supportive, and hedge funds hold net long exposure in tech. A strong push above established resistance (~22,000) could trigger momentum buying. Entry Trigger: • Wait for a decisive breakout above 22,000 on a daily closing basis (or a strong intraday move with higher volume). • Look for volume expansion and a clear candle close above the resistance band to confirm that buyers have absorbed supply. Stop-Loss Placement: • Set an initial stop just below the breakout zone, e.g. 21,700–21,800, to avoid whipsaws if the breakout fails. • For extra caution, place stops under the last swing low near 21,400 if a wider stop is preferred. Target Objectives: • First target: ~22,500 (a minor psychological/round level). • Potential second target: ~23,000–23,200 if bullish momentum accelerates and fundamentals remain supportive. Trade Management: • Consider trailing the stop if price quickly moves 1:1 or 1.5:1 in your favor, and lock in partial profits if momentum stalls near 22,500. B) Buy the Pullback (Support Bounce) Rationale: • Institutions appear to defend the 21,400–21,500 region. If price dips back into that area without a major macro deterioration, it may offer a favorable reward-to-risk entry in line with the longer uptrend. Entry Trigger: • Look for a pullback to the 21,400–21,500 area, followed by bullish rejection candlesticks (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing on 1-hour/4-hour charts), or an oversold intraday RSI. Stop-Loss Placement: • Place a tight stop just below 21,400 (e.g. 21,350), as a break below may signal a deeper correction. Target Objectives: • Aim for a retest of the 21,800–22,000 resistance zone, capturing the move from the mid-21,400s to around the 21,900s. Trade Management: • If price fails to bounce and closes below 21,400, exit quickly to reduce downside exposure. Reassess lower supports near 21,000–21,200. C) Range Fade / Mean Reversion (Short at Resistance) Rationale: • If macro data or headlines (e.g., tariffs) resurface concerns, the Nasdaq 100 may struggle to break 22,000 and continue chopping sideways. A short near the upper range resistance can work if the index keeps rejecting that zone. Entry Trigger: • Watch for a bearish candlestick pattern or repeated intraday rejections around 21,800–22,000. Confirm with short-term momentum rolling over (for example, a 1-hour RSI crossing below 50 from an overbought reading). Stop-Loss Placement: • Set a stop above 22,000 (e.g. 22,050–22,100), as a decisive break would invalidate the fade thesis. Target Objectives: • First target around the midrange near 21,600, and a second target near the lower bound at 21,400–21,500. • This approach is suited for short-term traders who anticipate more sideways chop. Since it is counter to the main uptrend, be nimble with your exits. Trade Management: • If price breaks above 22,000 with force, cut short positions promptly to avoid a breakout squeeze. 5. Risk & News Catalysts to Monitor 1. Inflation / Fed Guidance: • Surprise inflation prints or hawkish Fed comments can spike bond yields, pressuring highly valued growth stocks in the Nasdaq 100. 2. Earnings Releases (Late Q4 & Q1 2025): • Watch guidance from top Nasdaq constituents (mega-cap tech). Strong outlooks can fuel upside, while cautious forward guidance may keep the index stuck under resistance. 3. Trade Policy Headlines: • Any tariff announcements aimed at tech supply chains or key trading partners could weigh heavily on the Nasdaq, especially if margins for chipmakers or consumer electronics are threatened. 4. Dollar Strength or Weakness: • A sharp dollar rally can sometimes hamper multinational tech earnings. Conversely, a softer dollar could boost foreign revenue translation, favoring further Nasdaq gains. 6. Final Perspective • Macro Take: A late-cycle expansion with cooling inflation, decent consumer demand, and stable rates supports the tech sector’s growth story. • Institutional Flows: Hedge funds remain net long Nasdaq futures, while retail sentiment is still positive for AI and tech. This tilt underpins potential rallies but is balanced by heightened hedging. • Technical Backdrop: The US100 sits in a bullish consolidation, with strong support near 21,400–21,500 and key resistance at ~22,000. Momentum is neutral, awaiting the next catalyst to break out (or fail) from the range. Bottom Line: • The long-term uptrend remains intact. • Near-term price action is range-bound. • Watch for either a bullish breakout above 22,000 for a continuation trade, a pullback buy at 21,400–21,500 if support holds, or a range fade short if the index keeps rejecting the 21,800–22,000 region. Always manage positions with clear stops and stay alert to macro data releases or sudden geopolitical news, as either can ignite volatility in the Nasdaq 100.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by EliteMarketAnalysis
1
NASDAQ 100 Short continuation or Start of next Bull Leg? 1. Top-Down Bias • Weekly (Long-Term) • Bias: Still in a primary uptrend (higher highs & higher lows, trading above key SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud). • Current Pressure: Latest weekly candle shows a sharp pullback; momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) are rolling over from positive territory. • Daily (Intermediate) • Bias: Turned short-term bearish (clearly below daily Ichimoku Cloud, 10/50/100-day SMAs; lower highs & lower lows formed). • Key Pivot: 200-day SMA (~20,272). A sustained break below strengthens the intermediate downtrend; a defense of this level may spark a bounce. • 4H & 2H (Short-Term & Intraday) • Bias: Both are firmly bearish with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, supported by high ADX and negative momentum readings. • Oversold Conditions: RSI and Stochastics are near oversold on lower timeframes, hinting at possible short-term bounces within a broader downtrend. Net Takeaway: • Long-term (Weekly) remains bullish. • Intermediate to short-term (Daily/4H/2H) is currently bearish. • Expect potential downward continuation unless the market reclaims key daily/4H resistance levels (around 21,000–21,200). 2. Key Levels & Confluences 1. Support Zones • Weekly/Daily Major Support: • 20,300–19,800 region: Aligns with the 200-day SMA (~20,272), 50% Fibonacci (~19,800), and previous bullish order blocks. • 19,500–19,200 area: Next layer of institutional demand if the 20k handle fails. • Deeper Weekly Support: 17,600–16,000 (if the sell-off becomes more pronounced). 2. Resistance Zones • Daily/4H Supply & Bearish Order Blocks: • 21,000–21,200: Confluence of broken support-turned-resistance, daily Ichimoku Cloud lower boundary, multiple SMAs overhead. • 22,000–22,200: Higher-timeframe supply zone where previous rallies failed. 3. Fibonacci Confluence • From the Weekly Swing (~17,378 low to ~22,206 high): • 38.2% (~20,362) near current price. • 50% (~19,796) is a critical deeper support. • Daily Extensions: If below 20,272, watch potential extension toward 1.618 (~19,475). 4. Trend Lines / Channels • Ascending Weekly Channel: Still intact overall, but price is testing lower bounds. • Broken Daily/4H Channel: Price has slipped beneath shorter-term ascending channels, reinforcing the current correction. 3. Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation / Bounce) Despite the short-term downtrend, there is a chance that the weekly uptrend reasserts itself if price stabilizes above major support (particularly near the 200-day SMA or 19,800–20,300). Here’s how different risk appetites might approach a bullish scenario: 3.1 Narrative • Why Bullish? The weekly structure remains intact, and momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics) on lower timeframes are oversold. If price holds the 200-day SMA (~20,272) or the broader 19,800–20,300 demand zone, a relief rally could ensue—potentially aligning back with the higher-timeframe uptrend. 3.2 Aggressive / High-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Where/When to Enter • Look for early signals on 2H/4H near 20,300–20,500 (if tested and shows a bullish engulfing or strong volume spike). • Could also enter on a quick intraday bounce off 20,200–20,300 (if price wicks into that zone). 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Tight stop just below the most recent intraday swing low (e.g., below 20,200 or 20,100), giving minimal room for volatility. 3. Confirmation Level • Minimal confirmation: Possibly only a bullish candlestick pattern or a short-term RSI cross back above 30–35 (showing a slight momentum shift). 4. Pros & Cons • Pros: Best potential reward if you catch the exact turning point. • Cons: Higher chance of false break or whipsaw if price continues downward. 5. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~20,900–21,000 (overhead Fib confluence + broken support). • T2: ~21,600–21,700 (daily middle Bollinger Band / cluster of SMAs). • Partial take-profit at T1; consider moving stop to break-even and aiming for T2 if momentum continues. 6. Invalidation • A decisive 4H close below 20,000 or the 200-day SMA being lost on a daily close with no immediate rebound. 3.3 Moderate-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a 4H candle close above a minor resistance or pivot (e.g., reclaiming 20,700–20,800). • Look for a bullish MACD cross or RSI returning above 40–45 on the 4H. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Slightly below the newly formed higher low (once price confirms an upward pivot)—for instance, below ~20,400 if that level becomes an intraday support again. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Reduces the likelihood of entering on a dead-cat bounce. • Cons: Potentially misses the lowest entry if price rebounds sharply from 20,300. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~21,000–21,200 (near daily Ichimoku bottom/cloud edge). • T2: ~21,700–22,000 (upper daily Bollinger / major daily supply). • Scale out at T1 or tighten stop-loss; let the rest run if momentum persists. 5. Invalidation • A return below the 4H pivot or a break under ~20,300 after you’ve entered. 3.4 Conservative / Low-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Require a Daily close back above key resistance or the Ichimoku Cloud bottom (~21,200). • Multiple indicators aligned bullishly: RSI > 50 on 4H/Daily, MACD crossing positive, etc. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Below the reclaimed pivot on the daily timeframe—e.g., below ~20,700–20,800 region—or beneath the 200-day SMA if you want an even wider stop. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Higher probability that the correction has ended. Fewer false signals. • Cons: Entering significantly higher reduces your initial risk/reward ratio. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~21,700–22,000. • T2: Retest of the most recent swing high around 22,200–22,400. • Could move stop to break-even after T1. 5. Invalidation • A Daily close back below ~20,700 or failing to hold the 200-day SMA on subsequent retests. 4. Scenario 2 (Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction) Should the short-term downtrend continue, or if weekly support fails near 20k, the path of least resistance is lower. Below are approaches for different risk appetites. 4.1 Narrative • Why Bearish? Daily/4H/2H structure is decidedly bearish. If the 200-day SMA (~20,272) and nearby support (20,000–20,300) give way or fail to spark a sustained bounce, price could accelerate downward toward 19,800–19,500 or even lower. 4.2 Aggressive / High-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Short on minor bounces/retests of intraday resistance (e.g., 20,700–20,800) with minimal confirmation. • Possibly enter when 2H/4H candles show a quick rejection of the descending trend line or when RSI ticks back up to ~40 but fails to break higher. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., above 20,900 or a short-term pivot). 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Potentially large reward if price continues to drop swiftly. • Cons: Higher false-break risk if a sudden short-covering rally occurs. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~20,000–19,800 (major daily support, near 200-day SMA or Fib zone). • T2: ~19,500 or even 19,200 if momentum accelerates. • Consider partial profit at T1; let the remainder ride if the breakdown continues. 5. Invalidation • A sustained 4H close above 20,900–21,000 indicates short-term momentum shifting against you. 4.3 Moderate-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a 4H candle close below 20,400 or 20,300, confirming a new leg down. • Check that RSI remains < 50, MACD is negative, and no immediate bullish divergence. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Above the retest zone near the breakdown point (~20,400–20,500), giving some room for volatility spikes. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Avoids jumping in on whipsaws; the downtrend is confirmed by a fresh breakdown. • Cons: May miss a portion of the initial move if price collapses quickly through 20,300. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: 19,800–19,500 range. • T2: 19,200 or lower, depending on volume flow and broader daily momentum. • Move stops to break-even after T1 if momentum continues. 5. Invalidation • A 4H close back above the breakdown level (~20,400–20,500) or a bullish crossover in MACD that breaks the downward structure. 4.4 Conservative / Low-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a Daily close below the 200-day SMA (~20,272) and/or sub-20k, plus a retest of that broken support that fails. • Indicators (RSI < 50, MACD negative) across Daily and 4H confirm sustained bearish control. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Above the well-defined structural daily high (e.g., near 20,700–20,800) or above any retest zone. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: High probability the trend is continuing downward without a sudden reversal. • Cons: You may enter significantly lower, reducing R:R if the biggest chunk of the move has already happened. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~19,500–19,200. • T2: If the weekly structure fully shifts, possibly mid- to upper-18k or even 17k in extreme scenarios. • Consider partial TP at T1, trailing the remainder for further downside. 5. Invalidation • A Daily close back above 20,400–20,500 or the 200-day SMA, negating the breakdown. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing Guidelines 1. Volatility Awareness (ATR) • 4H ATR (~180) and Daily ATR (~379) indicate elevated volatility. If you choose tighter stops, consider reducing position size accordingly. • Alternatively, widen stops to accommodate swings, but reduce overall leverage to keep risk consistent (e.g., risk 1–2% of account). 2. Reward-to-Risk Ratios • Aim for at least 1:2 or better. • If uncertain about the next directional move, trade smaller or wait for confirmation. 3. Timeframe Alignment • When the Weekly and Daily align (bullish or bearish), you can consider a larger position size. • Currently, Weekly is bullish while Daily is bearish, so either trade smaller or adopt intraday strategies until clarity emerges. 4. Partial Profit Strategies • Scale out at T1 (first target) and trail your stop to break-even or near the entry. • Let the remainder run to T2 if momentum continues in your favor. 6. Extra Notes / Contradictions • Weekly vs. Intraday Mismatch: • The long-term chart is still bullish, yet daily/intraday charts are in a firm downtrend. Some traders may opt to only short intraday rallies until price reclaims key daily levels that align with the weekly uptrend. • News & Macro Catalysts: • Any significant economic releases or global risk events could abruptly shift technical setups. Be mindful of volatility spikes. • Ranging vs. Trending: • If the market churns sideways near 20,300–20,700, you might see multiple false breaks. Use higher-timeframe closes for clarity or reduce trade size if in doubt. 7. Final Summary 1. Top-Down Bias • Weekly: Bullish overall but momentum is fading. • Daily & Below: Bearish structure, with oversold indicators that might spark a short-term bounce. 2. Key Levels & Confluences • Support: 20,300–20,000 (incl. 200-day SMA), then 19,800–19,500. • Resistance: 20,700–21,000 for intraday bounces; 21,200–22,000 from daily order blocks. 3. Scenario 1 (Bullish): • Aggressive: Enter near 20,300–20,400 with minimal confirmation. Tight stops just below 20,200. • Moderate: Wait for a 4H close above 20,700–20,800. Stop below the higher low. • Conservative: A daily close above ~21,200 plus aligned indicators. Stop below the reclaimed pivot. 4. Scenario 2 (Bearish): • Aggressive: Short near 20,700–20,800 intraday bounces. Tight stop above swing high. • Moderate: Wait for a 4H close below 20,300–20,400. Stop above the retest zone. • Conservative: A daily close below the 200-day SMA and a failed retest. Stop above a daily pivot. 5. Risk Management: • Control position size based on ATR; keep R:R ≥ 1:2; consider scaling out at T1 and protecting capital. 6. Extra Notes / Contradictions: • A short-term bounce can occur at any time due to oversold indicators. Weekly remains structurally bullish, so watch for strong buying interest near 20k or 19.8k. Bottom line: The market is in a higher-timeframe uptrend but an active short-term correction. Traders can play a potential bounce off key support (Bullish Scenario) or join the short-term downtrend on rallies/fresh breakdowns (Bearish Scenario). As always, maintain disciplined stop-losses, manage position size relative to volatility, and let the market confirm your directional bias before committing significant capital. Disclaimer: This framework focuses on potential probabilities and technical triggers. No outcome is guaranteed; always adjust trade size and stops according to personal risk tolerance.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by EliteMarketAnalysis
A healthy retrace1- What a day yesterday! The bloodbath is not completed yet! Today is the end of D/W/M and it will be another huge red candle; another 800-900 points to the downside! 2- I was wrong about a retrace up; NVDA results were not sufficient to attract buyers. Market is pricing in the slowing down of US economy with a real risk of recession; all macro-data were bad recently. 3- This was fueled by US Tariffs. 4- Core PCE data came inline but higher than the previous reading. On the other hand, Trump mentioned the tax cuts which is very good for equities. Hence, this sell-off is not so bad; it's very healthy for the next move up. I will come back to this point during the Monthly/Weekly Analysis.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl