US30 trade ideas
US30 - Sell Limit Opportunity After Liquidity GrabThe US30 index has reached a key liquidity zone above resistance, setting up a compelling sell limit opportunity. This price action suggests the market has cleared stop-losses and may be primed for a bearish reversal.
Key Observations:
Liquidity Sweep: The price spiked above a critical resistance level, triggering stop-losses and trapping breakout buyers.
Market Structure: Emerging bearish signals, including rejection candles and a loss of bullish momentum, indicate potential downside movement.
Optimal Entry: A sell limit at aligns with the liquidity grab and the anticipated reversal zone.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Sell limit at , expecting a move downward from the liquidity zone.
Stop Loss: Above the liquidity sweep to protect against false breakouts.
Take Profit: Targeting support levels around for a strong risk-reward ratio.
Risk Management:
This setup capitalizes on a classic liquidity grab, but strict adherence to risk management and position sizing is vital. Monitor price action closely for additional confirmation of bearish momentum.
Dow Jones ready to go upAnalysts suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for buying the Dow Jones, focusing on sectors showing resilience, such as technology and healthcare. A bullish case relies on sustained support at key technical levels and easing inflation concerns. It’s vital to monitor Federal Reserve signals, as dovish guidance could provide further momentum. Stay alert for any pullback opportunities to align with broader market sentiment. Always consider risk management
Big Money Complacency AKA "Deer In the Headlights"The violent US market selloff this afternoon after the Fed cut interest rates
was proceeded by 9 straight days of selling in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Yesterday I posed the observation
that the 9 consecutive days selling had been a warning
of something ominous and yet unknown coming soon to the market.
But no, complacency reigned.
The Fed would bail out the market the way they always do.
But no, today quite the contrary.
They're faith in all that was overwhelmingly "overwhelmed".
The proof of that " massive surprise "
was shown in the VIX, which get this rose, 74 % in just one day to 27.
My point in all this is that traders in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average
had sniffed out all of this 10 days ago.
Sometimes broader markets show telling signs of "deer in the headlights".
This one was about big money complacency.
And as todays selloff proved.. they paid harshly for that misguided misjudgment.
THE_UNWIND
12/18/24
WOOODS OF CONNECTICUT
DJI Hits Weekly Support: What's Next? - Market Breadth AnalysisThe DJI has recently declined as previously predicted and has now completed a CHoCH (Change of Character), signaling a bearish trend. The index has reached a significant weekly support zone around the 42,500 level (🟩 marked by the green box).
So, what’s next? 🤔
Looking at the H1 chart, we notice some interesting market breadth outlook:
- US30 Market Breadth EMA20 Indicator:
The EMA histogram has shifted from 🟩 green to 🟨 yellow, indicating an increasing number of stocks with strong bullish momentum.
However, the height of the histogram (yellow) bars 📉 is decreasing, suggesting that the overall number of stocks with strong bullish momentum is also diminishing.
- Market Breadth MACD Indicator:
The 🔴 red line (representing strongly bearish stocks) is clearly declining, showing a reduction in the number of stocks with strong downward momentum.
Meanwhile, the 🔵 blue line is increasing significantly, suggesting that many stocks are reversing upward even within a bearish momentum.
The 🟢 green line, which represents strongly bullish stocks, is climbing but still lacks the strength to signal a decisive shift. A significant breakout would require the green line to rise further, confirming a stronger bullish momentum across a larger number of stocks.
- Market Breadth EMA Alignment:
The 🔴 red line crossed above the 🟢 green line quite some time ago and continues to widen. This suggests that a bullish crossover (green crossing above red) is unlikely in the near term. A confirmed bullish signal would require the green line to overtake the red line again.
- Summary:
While there are early signs of potential reversal, the bullish momentum is not yet strong enough to suggest a significant upward breakout. It’s crucial to monitor whether the 🟢 green line in the MACD and US30 Market Breadth EMA20 indicators can rise substantially, indicating a larger number of stocks gaining solid bullish momentum.
⚠️ Until then, the uptrend remains weak, and caution is warranted. While DJI might retest previous highs, breaking past those highs to form new all-time highs seems challenging at this point.
Strategy: Given the current conditions, it might be more advantageous to look for shorting opportunities. 📉
US30 Bearish King of Pips strategy and a bearish forecast for US30:
Strategy Overview
The King of Pips strategy is a technical analysis-based trading approach focusing on identifying trend reversals and continuations. This strategy combines multiple indicators and chart patterns to gauge market sentiment and predict price movements.
Key Components
Entry and Exit Points : Utilize candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, shooting star) and indicator divergences.
Risk Management : Set stop-loss orders and position sizing.
Bearish Forecast for US30
Based on the King of Pips strategy, we anticipate a bearish outlook for US30:
Trading Plan
1. *Entry*: Short US30 at $42,588.
2. *Stop-Loss*: $42,767.
3. *Take-Profit 1*: $42,506.
4. *Take-Profit 2*: $42,425
4. *Position Sizing*: 2% of account balance.
Please note that this forecast and strategy are hypothetical and not investment advice. Trading carries risks, and you should consult your financial advisor before making decisions.
US30 Falls to 42200 and is now in buyers ZoneUS30 Falls yesterday causing much of the traders to lose their bullish trades. The market faked like it wanted to go bullish but slid over 250 points. Price is currently closer to support 42300 and is likely to continue to consolidate between here and 92900. This is a zone to take small intraday trades to make up for any losses sustained with yesterday's slide.
For bullish confirmation look for a retest above 42900.
Be careful by paying attention to look for higher highs and higher lows.
Be safe out there. Good trading.
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
Large 1000 points drop - panic drop signal possible rebound dipThe Dow had a strong dip yesterday and this shows a price in exit after the Fed announcement yesterday. Due to the sudden drop that coincides with the pocket of support at 41,700-42,300, the DJIA may signal a possible rebound. Despite declining momentum, the psychological of the market and price action signal maintain the uptrend sentiment. Hence, we maintain our long-term target at 46,000
US30 Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend ScenariosTechnical Analysis
The price currently shows bearish momentum toward 42900 and 42770, after which it is expected to consolidate between 42900 and 43170 until a breakout occurs.
However, as long as the price trades below 43200 and 43350, the downward trend remains intact. To enter a bullish zone, the price must break above this range by closing a 4-hour candle above 43350.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 43060
Resistance Levels: 43160, 43350, 43650
Support Levels: 42770, 42580, 42390
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Momentum: Stabilized above 43350
Bearish Momentum: Stability below 42900
Consolidation: Between 42900 and 43160
uptrendThe uptrend is expected to continue to the specified resistance levels. Then, considering the behavior of the index in the resistance range, possible scenarios have been identified
Price Tests Key Levels as Bullish and Bearish Momentum CompeteTechnical Analysis
The price dropped as anticipated in the previous analysis. Today, the price is likely to attempt to reach 41,960. A break below this level would confirm further bearish movement toward 41,740. However, if the price stabilizes above 41,970, it could support a bullish move toward the pivot zone at 42,370.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 42130
Resistance Levels: 42370, 42590, 42770
Support Levels: 41970, 41740, 41560
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Momentum: Expected if the price stabilizes above 41,970.
Bearish Momentum: Likely with stability below 41,970.
previous idea:
Short Term Bullish Move$EIGHTCAP: US30
The previous week was bearish with Wednesday's FOMC candle holding the week's expansion.
Friday's price opened and dropped to the downside taking FOMC day low and moving into a daily +OB, expanding to the upside and closing the day bullish
We can aim for higher prices to target Wednesday's high
NB: Bullish trades should be taken with additional confluence
US30 BUY AT SUPPORT ZONE Here on US30 price has moved down and now trying to touch the support zone so is likely to rise after doing that so the trend is in uptrend so trader should go for long around level 41949.5 and expect profit target of 44366.1 . Use money management
3.5% Decline on The Dow Jones 30 But Is This Unusual?Looking at the trend structure over the last 8 months, we can see a pattern play out.
Since April, pullbacks of between 3.5% and 7% have been part and parcel of the Dow Jones’s trend structure. (highlighted in red)
The current pullback of 3.5% falls within this range.
Note also how our trend filter remains mostly green and grey, with speckles of red, since April, in line with the long-term bull trend.
The index has now fallen to the d50sma (orange line), where we want to see it find support, bounce, break out and continue its climb to 50,000, as it has done since April.
The Dow Jones is also a good example of how trend structures can change despite no change in direction.
October to March saw a much faster trend, using the d20sma (blue line) as support, eventually breaking through in April and leading to a change in trend structure.
The Dow Jones is currently lagging behind the Nasdaq 100, which is setting record highs above 20,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500, which has settled into a mini consolidation above the 6000 level.
We ideally want to see Santa deliver in the final 2 weeks of December.
However, if the indices and stocks don't show new trend continuations through the rest of 2024, we want them to hold within consolidation, which will act a bases for trends in the New Year.
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Why is Dow Jones on a losing streak?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (Ticker AT: USAIND) recently experienced its longest negative streak since 2018, racking up eight consecutive sessions of declines. This downtrend began on December 4, when the index closed above 45,000 points for the first time in history. Since then, it has shown a downward trend, reflecting the volatility and fluctuations of the market in the current period. During this period, the DJIA has shown a downward trend, while other indexes such as the Nasdaq have experienced increases, reaching new all-time highs. For example, the Nasdaq rose 1.24% and closed at new all-time highs, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.38%. However, these positive closes were the result of the strong performance of a few stocks, such as Alphabet, Apple and Tesla, which set new all-time highs.
The recent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), is due to several factors that have generated uncertainty in the markets. Here are the main reasons behind this behavior:
1. Interest Rate Concerns 2.
• The persistence of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to combat inflation continues to negatively affect sensitive sectors, such as real estate and industrials.
• Investors fear that these rates could be prolonged, limiting economic growth.
2.Recession Fears
• Mixed economic data, such as a slowdown in consumer spending and industrial production, have fueled concerns about a possible recession in 2024.
• Although the labor market remains strong, other indicators, such as the manufacturing index, reflect weakness.
3. Impact of the Industrial Sector
• Given that the DJIA is largely comprised of industrial and consumer goods companies, any weakness in these sectors directly impacts its performance.
• Key companies in the index, such as Boeing and Caterpillar, have suffered setbacks due to global uncertainty.
4. Strength of the dollar
• The strengthening of the dollar against other currencies negatively affects DJIA companies with high international exposure, reducing the competitiveness of their products abroad.
5. Rotation to Other Indices
• Investors are favoring indices more exposed to the technology sector, such as the Nasdaq, which has had a positive performance thanks to the momentum of artificial intelligence and other technological advances.
6. Geopolitical Tensions
• Uncertainties in the Middle East, as well as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have increased risk aversion, especially affecting global companies in the DJIA.
On the technical side, the index has had several bearish days that are reaching its last support zone near 43,300 points. If this zone is pierced, it could evolve towards the checkpoint near 42,100 points. On the other hand, the index is currently oversold at 41.72% and its mid-range crosses do not indicate a change in direction. If we look at the MACD if there has been a turn of the trend of the average of 12 crossing below the average of 26, which shows that in the short term this situation does not seem to have changed.
It is important to note that the DJIA is a price-weighted index, which means that higher-priced stocks have a more significant impact on its movement. Therefore, fluctuations in the prices of high-value stocks can significantly influence the index's performance.
For investors and analysts, this negative streak in the DJIA underscores the importance of monitoring market trends and considering factors such as index composition, global economic conditions and monetary policies that can influence stock index performance.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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US30 Provides a nice bull move at the 42300 levelUS30 Gave a nice long opportunity At 9:30 am when it quickly pushed up from the 42300 support level. This long will likely reach above the 43200 level and retest this area to continue its bullish move overall.
The bulls have arrived!
Technical Analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as one of the most important benchmarks in the US stock market, is currently approaching a sensitive area in the range of 41363-41191 units. A review of the chart shows that this area acts as a strong support level and there is a possibility of a positive price reaction to this level. A full analysis of this situation will be provided below.
1. Price Structure Analysis
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently exited the ascending channel it had maintained in the past months and entered a corrective phase. This correction has led the index towards the aforementioned support area, which is considered a key and valid level given the history of price performance.
Level 41363-41191 units:
This support area is obtained from the collision of several technical tools, including Fibonacci ratios (100% and 113% retracement) and the dynamic support of the lower trend line of the channel. Also, the price being near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator also indicates the possibility of slowing down the decline and starting an upward rebound.
2. Bullish scenario
If the index can maintain the support area of 41363-41191 units, a positive reaction and price increase can be expected.
Short-term bullish targets:
The price returns to the resistance level of 43749 units, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci line. This level is considered the initial target for the rise if the price is supported successfully.
Breaking through this resistance can pave the way for reaching higher levels in the medium term, including the psychological resistance of 45000 units.
3. Bearish scenario
If the index fails to maintain the support area and stabilizes below the level of 41191 units, there is a possibility of continuing the downward trend.
Bearish targets:
The next support level is around 40800 units, and if it is broken, the possibility of further decline towards 39500 units will be strengthened.
This decline could push the index into a deeper correction phase and increase selling pressure in the market.
US30 POSSIBLE BUY The market is currently testing the current Weekly 0.78 Fib area. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern.
We could see BUYERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
US30 / Consolidation Ahead of Key Breakout LevelsTechnical Analysis
The price has reached the support level we mentioned earlier and is now consolidating between 43,350 and 43,765 until a breakout occurs. Initially, the price may attempt to test 43,760 or 43,900, driven by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut. However, it is also possible for the price to drop again, potentially breaking the support zone at 43,350.
A break below 43,350 and 43,200 would confirm a bearish trend, with further downside targets at 42,900 and 42,770.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 43580
Resistance Levels: 43765, 43900, 44070
Support Levels: 43350, 43210, 42900
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Momentum: Possible within the consolidation range of 43,350 to 43,900
PREVIOUS IDEA:
Bullish possibility YM may likely break the green trendline with the motive to go towards the top. However, failure to break the trendline to the upwards may mean bearish continuation.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) – Bullish Reversal Opportunity
This chart highlights a potential buying opportunity in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) after a sharp correction. The recent dip into a key support zone could set the stage for a bullish reversal heading into 2025.
Technical Analysis:
Key Support Zone: The gray zone around 41,200–41,400 represents a strong demand area. Historically, this level has acted as a base for bullish recoveries.
Oversold Conditions: The steep sell-off suggests that the market might be oversold, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
Weekly Pivot: The weekly pivot line serves as a near-term resistance, and a breakout above this level could signal bullish momentum.
Bullish Scenario: A bounce from the support zone followed by a break above the weekly pivot would confirm the start of a new leg higher, targeting 44,000 and beyond.
Fundamental Analysis:
Economic Resilience: Despite recent corrections, the U.S. economy remains robust, with moderate inflation and stable growth supporting equity valuations.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Expectations of a pause or potential rate cuts in 2025 could reignite risk appetite, favoring indices like the DJIA.
Seasonal Trends: Historically, Q1 tends to favor equities due to renewed optimism and capital inflows at the start of the year.
Conclusion:
Traders may consider entering long positions in the highlighted support zone, with stop-losses just below it to manage risk. A break above the weekly pivot could provide further confirmation of bullish momentum.
