Bitcoin - Lofty Promises, Disturbing Results: My Crypto Journey.I make no claim to know where Bitcoin is headed. All I know is my opinion on it, and my feelings about cryptocurrencies in general, especially how they've evolved over the years. My sense continues to tell me that things are very wrong with crypto, and that eventually it's going to fade into the uncomfortable past, a kind of failed experiment. Back in 2022, I thought that if it gets bigger and bigger, it's a general symptom of wealth concentration, exploitation, and mass delusion. I don't think this technology is beneficial to society, as it extracts both attention and resources from its participants. Unless, of course, you can manage to be one of those who profits and then turns their profits into material wealth and/or positive change.
Looking at my own personal timeline for my sentiment about crypto, let's see how I ended up here:
November, 2017 : I am out of college for over a year now. I've been working a tough sales job for a year and I'm beginning to get burned out. I hear about Bitcoin from a friend. "if you buy in at $10K, sell at $20k and double your money." I then learn about Bitcoin and think, well, things are pretty bleak in the world right now. I don't know what I'm doing with my life. What if the banks collapse and I'm left with nothing? Bitcoin seems like a viable alternative. I buy out of fear, around $13.8k. Then, I see my value go up. Greed takes over. I go down a rabbit hole, learning about altcoins such as XRP, XLM, and LTC. Even XRB, which later becomes Nano. What if any of these becomes the next Bitcoin?
January, 2018: I think that I should have just cashed out. I must have bought the top. But, what if it all comes back even stronger? I could be rich. I pull out part of my initial investment and watch the rest continue to spiral downwards. I quit my job out of burnout.
May, 2018: Bitcoin continues to make lower highs. I start working that crazy sales job again part-time, as I need the money while the bear market persists.
December, 2018: All hope seems lost. I quit my sales job, again out of burnout and deciding I don't want to do this the rest of my life. I'm 25 years old. Then, I decide to look for reasons price might go up again, which would also then save me from having to go back to work again. I could just be an artist full time. I get into TA, thinking that it's kind of like art. Instead of working on my actual art or writing as much as I want to, I create all sorts of trendlines and other visual and fundamental reasons crypto could come back even stronger than before. I prepare. I buy ETH around $100. I'm now posting regularly on TradingView. I start figuring out which coins I want to load up on for the next bull run.
April, 2019: The market is back. I'm pretty sure the bottom is in. I'm gonna make it. I continue to post about various cryptocurrencies on tradingview, although I begin to feel worried about altcoins. Will they survive through the next cycle?
October, 2019: The market is volatile. Bitcoin finally hits $10K again, though there's something strange going on. Is price being manipulated?
February, 2020: Things are starting to feel precarious. ETH has done better now, boosting my portfolio back towards break even for the first time. The COVID crash is immanent. I've decided on a career to pursue.
March, 2020: Panic. Markets are screwed. I'm going down with the ship. I'm too scared to buy more because everything feels apocalyptic.
September, 2020: I begin grad school. While working mostly from home and attending classes remotely, I have a lot of time on my hands to post crypto analysis. I want to invest more, but I have very little income as a student. I feel that price is about to explode upwards. However, in grad school I'm also learning a lot about systems and becoming more and more skeptical about whether crypto would bring about any positive change to financial systems.
February, 2021: ETH has broken all-time high. I'm in significant profit. I'm checking my portfolio all the time. Will the altcoins rally soon?
Spring - Summer 2021: There's a huge amount of dumping. What's going on here? Why does Elon Musk have so much influence over this market? I thought it was supposed to be decentralized. Tweets are having a huge effect on the market. Should I sell? No, I think it's just a correction. I'm right, at least for now.
December, 2021: I'm feeling pretty bullish. Bitcoin made a significant new all-time high. But, something is tingling underneath my skin. I can't quite shake it. What's going on with this LUNA coin? A number of things are starting to unravel in my mind. For example, El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender, but the response was very tepid. It's not seeming very practical at all. If it's not a viable currency, then what is it? I think about Elon Musk. I think about Michael Saylor and his defrauding of investors during the dotcom boom. I allow the cognitive dissonance I've been experiencing completely take over.
January - February, 2022: My feelings culminate. I decide to let go of all my crypto, realizing that it's not playing out ideally how I'd hoped. Plus, I'm in significant profit now. The forces that have taken advantage and control in traditional markets and the broader economy have latched themselves onto the cryptocurrency market, where investors are easily exploitable. The Super Bowl happens. Crypto starts to feel more and more like a joke. Who is really profiting from all this? NFT's are also irking me.
May, 2022: I finish grad school. Terra LUNA collapses, shortly after I speculated it would. For the rest of the year, I feel validated in my feelings about crypto. FTX collapses later that year, and although in hindsight it marked the bottom of the bear market, I'm hopeful that people will stay far away from this market in years to come. I am optimistic about my own financial future, as I now have a stable career. Later in the year, I make some money day trading, but I eventually stop since it's distracting me from my work.
July, 2023: I continue with my new career in the mental health field. I'm 30 years old. XRP was deemed not a security when sold to retail investors, but a security when sold to initial institutional investors. I am disappointed in this outcome, as I disagree and believe many altcoins like XRP are clear securities. I'm glad to be paying less attention to the crypto market.
January, 2024: Against my speculation and to my disappointment, Bitcoin ETF's are approved. I stubbornly stay away from the market, believing the ETFs to be another cash grab and an opportunity for existing holders to cash out, particularly those whales who have been on the stablecoin side of things - the orchestrators behind USDD, USDT, etcetera.
August, 2024: Ripple is only fined a tiny fraction of the initial request by the SEC for selling unlicensed securities. This opens the floodgates for money to pour back into altcoins, and for more ETFs to eventually be created.
November, 2024: Bitcoin finally makes a significant new all-time high after Trump is re-elected. It had been consolidating for much of the year, seeming at times that it would break down and not push past its previous high.
January, 2025: Trump is back in office. There's volatility across the market. Many are hopeful that his presidency will bear fruit for crypto holders. Meanwhile, he creates his own meme tokens and profits enormously from them, not unlike the numerous crypto grifters from years past, the grifters that took hold of the market and told me to stay away. I feel upset that price went against my speculation, though also vindicated. Crypto is exactly what I realized it was. My opinion has not changed. It's just another bulky asset, though one where the corruption is far more transparent than it is in the world of traditional finance. Even though it's there for all to see, not much is being done about it. Typical, really, of this current era of deregulation and apathy. Michael Saylor continues to hoard more and more. It's just the plaything of the wealthy now. It's what some people always wanted Bitcoin to become, but the antithesis of what many thought it represented.
I'm happy with my career, and I feel good knowing I invested in myself and did not continue to chase cryptocurrencies. After all, it's better to be able to generate capital myself than wait for someone else to do it for me. It's a more certain future for me, with much less speculation. I'm also able to pay off everything from grad school with my profits from the last bull market.
Bitcoin active addresses have not grown since 2017. studio.glassnode.com
It is hoarding, and hoarding through custodians. Plus, those who were already into it just kept buying. A few left entirely. And a few wealthy players began accumulating.
Now for a little TA:
This is the structure I'm looking at for Bitcoin. Failure to push back above that orange trendline has resulted in a rejection so far. This chart should give an idea as to the various extremes price can take over the coming days/weeks:
This is the longer term BLX chart, showing diminishing returns curved trendlines. If Bitcoin continues to follow this shape, the peak could be limited to $160-170K if reached this year. That is, if it has not already hit the top.
The bottom of this structure is comfortably at a major level - near $30k.
This bullish structure would need to break down to confirm a bearish period:
Right now, the chart LOOKS bullish, but it's important to pay attention to the other signals, the other things going on behind the scenes. Public perception is important as well. The monthly chart appears bullish until the 9 EMA (near $80k now) is lost. The ultimate oscillator continues to show a longer term bearish divergence:
The weekly chart can look like a tweezer top with a failed high if price cannot push back above $108k later this week.
If that push up is successful, I think price can rally up towards $160k before profit taking begins in real earnest again.
Let's see what happens!
Thank you for going on this journey with me, especially if you've followed me since the earlier days. As always, this post represents my personal opinion and is in no way intended as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
