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Bitcoin Liquid Index

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BITCOIN IS A SOLVED GAME. AND I SOLVED IT WITH 1 FIB PULLOne single fib pull to rule them all. From top to bottom in 2018 we can clearly see how many significant levels we get: The 2.236 level gives us the first ATH in 2021. After that we face a 30% pullback. The 3.618 level gives us the 63k top in 2021, again to the absolute dollar. The 4.236 level gives us the first ATH of 2024, after which we faced 230+ days of sideway nothingness. The 6.236 level gives us the exact ATH at the end of 2024 Following the logic of these numbers the next levels we should look for are: 7.618 and 8.236
BNC:BLX
by lemister22
Bearish Logaritmic Regression AnalysisResume This advanced logarithmic regression predicts we are about to reach top in the middle-late June. To start a bearish long term trend. Discussion Analysis: To extrapolate the current logarithmic regression trend. I tried to fit a sinusoidal wave to the logarithmic regression trend. The fitted Sin Wave is in dotted purple color when LogReg Trend is in green (bullish) phase right now. The logarithmic regression also is applied as deviation factors in Fibonacci channel terms (green and red transparent bands in the background). Current status: we are already in a red (should sell) Fib. area which is a high risk scenario in the Log Reg. A higher risk region would be seen if the price pass to the last red section, where we would see the highest volatility for this cycle, before sudden, sharp declines. I don't think we will reach the highest section of the Fibonacci Log. Reg. Channels. The only way we still could get there is if the fundamentals change dramatically: If FED drops the rates, if Trump stops the market wars, etc. Nobody knows. I think that may play out maybe at the end of the summer. DISCLAIMER This is not financial advice. I own several cryptocurrencies. This is only my mere opinion. Do your own research! Good Luck. Thor.
BNC:BLXShort
by thor08
Predicting the Next Bitcoin 200MA Peak Using Exponential DecayIn my ongoing study of Bitcoin market cycles, I noticed a compelling pattern in the behavior of the 200-day moving average (200MA) across bull markets. Specifically, I observed that the percentage rise of the 200MA from each cycle bottom to cycle top is decreasing over time, and this decline follows an exponential decay pattern. Historical Observations: • 2015 Cycle Bottom to 2017 Peak: The 200MA increased by approximately +686% • 2018 Cycle Bottom to 2021 Peak: The 200MA increased by approximately +450% This pattern suggested to me that the next peak in the 200MA might continue this decaying trajectory. To estimate this, I applied a simple exponential decay model using the two previous data points: y(t) = A.e^{-kt} Solving for the next value (t = 2), the model predicts an approximate increase of +296% in the 200MA from the current cycle bottom to the expected peak. Implication for the Current Cycle: Assuming the 200MA bottomed around $16,200, a +296% rise implies a target 200MA near: $16,200 x (1 + 2.96) is approx. $64,000 This aligns remarkably well with the 2021 bull market top, reinforcing the idea that the previous all-time high (~ GETTEX:64K –$69K) could serve as a strong macro support level once this cycle matures. Conclusion: If this exponential decay pattern continues, we can expect the 200MA to peak around $64,000 during the current bull cycle. This target also coincides with historical resistance turned potential support, making it a critical level for long-term investors and swing traders alike. This type of decay-based modeling, while not exact, offers a unique lens through which we can assess Bitcoin’s macro behavior across cycles. I’ll continue to monitor how this projection plays out and refine the model with new data as the market evolves.
BNC:BLXLong
by Vickwayne
Bitcoin price according to the Bitcoin Liquidity IndexThe Bitcoin bull market from its low in January 2015 to its high in December 2017 lasted 1064 days and the price rose from $163.88 to $19,764.51. The Bitcoin bull market from its low in December 2018 to its high in November 2021 took 1064 days and the price rose from $3,211.19 to $68,944.62. If this is repeated, the Bitcoin bull market from its low of $15,804.43 in November 2022 will find its high of $500,000 or more in October 2025, which Bitcoin could easily do if you look at 2017, for example.
BNC:BLXLong
by FaustDick
BTCUSD vs. M2 Supply - It's HOT Right Now!🔥 BTCUSD vs. M2 Supply 💸📈 – It’s HOT Right Now! 🔥 Everybody has been posting M2/btc charts. Here's mine: I roughly averaged the trends for PRE and POST-lockdowns MARCH 2020 for both global M2 and bitcoin. Bitcoin is on a log trend so that it can keep up with how absurd the money printing is. Even so, M2 is currently out-pacing bitcoin's trend, so something has to break. M2 is charted against 3 months lag. This graph is highly experimental and for reference only.
BNC:BLXLong
by toateotihuacan
Once we break and hold above $100K, it’s ALTCOIN SEASON🔥🔥 THE HEAT IS ON 🔥🔥 Hey fam! 😎✌️ The market is warming up for summer 2025, and the whales are scooping up BTC like crazy! 🐳 +2 BILLION $$ in Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows in just the last 2 days! 😱 We’ve just seen the largest BTC exchange outflow since Feb 2023, a strong sign of massive accumulation ahead of a potential rally 🚀🚀🚀 We’ve hit our $93K target, as predicted earlier — now I’m looking for a pullback to GETTEX:87K - $85K. 💡 That’s where you’ll find the tastiest altcoin entries. Once we break and hold above $100K, it’s ALTCOIN SEASON
BNC:BLXLong
by CHOWTRADE
1
The Road to The Mooni like to make some graphs like that when peoples are in Dispair mode. - i used a modified ADX indicator with a Monthly Timeframe ( thanks to the creator by the way ) - Look at the Mountains and tell me when in past bullruns we stopped at 100 ? - Never - - The Highest Point is 160+ That said my advice for now is : " You don't really care if TheKing will back to 20k, what you have to care is the Highest point TheKing will reach! " - Don't Think it's the end of this bullrun - Don't Listen Fuders - Use indicators for the Long Term - Believe in Trends and cycles movements - Believe in the future of cryptos - Believe in TheKing because Theking cannot die. Happy Tr4Ding !
BNC:BLXLong
by thecryer
5
Bitcoin are you Worried ?Everything is in chart. - Like i said many times, more you look from far, more it's easy to predict the future. - This Monthly Chart combinated with indicators show you how BTC moved in 2016-2017 BullRun so keep eyes open and you will find the way for 2020-2021. - We cannot compare a Bullrun from 400$ to 20,000$ with a Bullrun From 4000$ to 3XX,XXX+$, the chart will be exponential. We are now playing with big numbers. - imo right now we are in fake bear market stage, this stage happened also in 2016-2017 pre-bullrun ( but Numbers were smallers...), whales are just trying to create fear and remove retails investors. - Actual stage could be a Consolidation Phase, if Whales see there's a lack of interest, they will push BTC up, or we could get a quick fast Trap to 20,000$ if Whales feel Retails not fear enough (Not sell their BTC). - 100 000$ Target is still very preservative, past this stage it will be the FOMO Stage to go Higher! TheKing is dead??? Long live TheKing!! :D Happy Tr4Ding !
BNC:BLXLong
by thecryer
12
BTC next bottom -50% ?⚡️ I’ve been saying since December and January that selling around $108K was a smart move. Meanwhile, mainstream analysts were predicting $150K in winter and $200K by spring—now you can ask them, where are those predictions? 📝 This correction might feel painful, but let’s be real—it was expected for those who were paying attention. We had a parabolic move, and markets don’t rise forever. Right now, we are experiencing a mid-cycle correction, similar to 2021, when Bitcoin retraced 50% a year before the final peak. 💡 I still believe we’ll see new highs this year. The key now is to monitor the stock market—a prolonged equity downturn could extend this consolidation. But if history serves as any guide, these dips are opportunities, not the end of the cycle. Stay sharp.
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy
Is the BTC BullRun Over or Just Taking a Breather?This is the Bitcoin analysis I’ve been following and refining over the past four years. It’s been fascinating to observe how the impact of BTC halvings on price has gradually diminished over time, while each bull run tends to last longer than the previous one. That said, history doesn’t always repeat itself, but it often rhymes. These patterns provide a helpful framework to better understand Bitcoin’s long-term behavior. If $109,000 turns out to be the top of this cycle, we could see the price revisit the $50,000 area (or even lower). However, we’re still holding a strong bullish trendline that continues to support the price. For now, I’ll be watching closely to spot any key signals before the next big move.
BNC:BLX
by Joseadmusic
1
ITS TIME , FINAL WAVE FOR BITCOIN HAS BEGAN The final wave for Bitcoin has officially started; 200k by September 2025 is the call. So far, since October 2024, we have been getting every macro move correct. Going to avoid repeating a lot of content from the previous two TAs; check it out below. The lower high on the RSI called the momentum shift on this one; it was clear. December 17th, 2024, calling for a pullback down to 82k for wave 4 to complete; it hit 77k, pretty close. So last time, I was wrestling with two different dates for a cycle top; the first one was May 2025, and the second was September 2025. It is clear to me now that mid to late September 2025, Bitcoin will peak at around 200k. It could go slightly higher, but the 185-200k region has a higher outcome. So, I've been using this small-time Fib, and last time when we hit the 0.618, it was the breakout week for Bitcoin from the long range. We're here again; this week is the big pivot and start of wave 5. The hash ribbon has confirmed a buy signal, and more importantly, it flashed buy in my Time Fibonacci week. Amazing. If you've been with me for years, you already know that this is the best signal for Bitcoin there is. It is so damn good; this gives so much more weight to my thesis. Stars seem to align again. They constantly try to shake you out; this is the game. Who is going to fade the hash ribbon buy? It's been the easiest play time and time again. Seriously, though, for just a moment—are you really going to fade the hash ribbon? :)
BNC:BLXLong
by Sporia
19
BTC vs Gold at a Critical Support – Bounce or Breakdown?📊 Weekly Chart Analysis – BLX/GOLD (Bitcoin to Gold Ratio) 📉 Current Price: 25.90 Price is sitting at a key support zone, aligned with the ascending trendline (green). The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (26.47) from the full impulse move (8.35 → 37.67) is being tested. The 200-week MA is also nearby, adding strength to this support area. 🔍 Indicators: MACD (Weekly): Still bearish, with a confirmed downward crossover. No visible bullish divergences yet — bearish sentiment persists. RSI: Hovering near 40 — not oversold but approaching the zone. Room for further downside, but also potential for a bounce from oversold conditions. Stochastic RSI & Momentum: Stoch RSI is bottomed out, suggesting a possible upside reversal. Volume is declining on the sell-off — a possible sign of seller exhaustion. 🧠 Market Structure: The overall pattern resembles a rising wedge, potentially broken to the downside. However, price is now retesting the bottom of a long-term parallel channel — a historically favorable zone for long entries. 🧭 Possible Scenarios: 📈 Reversal & Bounce Holding 25–26 support, Stoch RSI reversal Medium-High 📉 Break to 20–23 Failure to hold Fibonacci & trendline Medium ⚠️ Sharp Drop to 15–20 Only if BTC crashes or gold rallies hard Low 🟢 Summary: Price is at a critical confluence zone: Fibonacci, horizontal support, trendline, and oscillators all align here. A bounce is likely unless this level is decisively broken. If it holds, this may be a strong mid-term long entry signal.
BNC:BLXLong
by Gethodl