BLX trade ideas
Re-test of Rising Wedge Breakdown May Signal TopIf Bitcoin is unable to get above the bottom of this long-term rising wedge, the top may be in when it fails to reclaim it upon re-test.
It could still go as high as 85-106k, or even higher the longer it takes to reach wedge bottom.
Given this turns out to be true, when this top is finally in we may see the deepest and longest correction in Bitcoin's history, targeting 1.5k, or even lower.
This could also be considered the makings of a double-top with a higher 2nd high, very similar to the structure of the previous ATH's double-top, but repeated on a larger scale. We may also see two attempts to re-test, just as we saw two highs last time.
A possible secondary signal that this is the likely scenario that will occur may be if the US Dollar Index continues up above its fall of 2022 highs:
Best of luck with your analyses and trading, and I hope you've found some valuable insight in the ideas we share together here.
BTC - 10 Year Time Behavior - BULLISH RALLY TO CONTINUEBased on past 10 year price behavior, BINANCE:BTCUSDT is set to continue its bullish rally until August 2025. Keep in mind there might be pull backs along the way.
Bullish and bearish rallies have been following a very similar time behavior the last 10 years, as pointed out in the chart.
Bearish rallies are averaging 12.6 months over the last 10 years.
Bullish rallies are averaging 32.5 months over the last 10 years.
WE can expect to reach the high for this bullish rally in August 2025. After August 2025, we can expect to see a pull back for 12-14 months, based on previous 10 year price action.
For now, look for Long entries on higher timeframes (Daily, 4 HR)!
If the ratio between ATH is decreasing by a half, then ....If the ratio between ATH is decreasing by a half, then i can predict the next ATH ... just math!
For this theorie, i just looked at the decreasing of percent for each all time high to the next one.
This is like x 64 ... x 32 ... x 16 (but not so accurate)
We saw a major bullrun from 0.39 USD to round about 30 USD ( ~ 77x )
We saw the next ATH at 1 143 USD ( ~ 38 x )
We saw the last ATH at 19 417 USD ( ~ 17 x )
The multiplication is cut in half each time. Because of this i predict the next 2 ATH just by using simple math:
19 417 x 8 = 155 336 USD
155 336 x 4 = 621 344 USD
In the chart, the values are not perfect because of scale, but i think you get the point ;-)
No financial advice!
I just want to leave it here and visit in 2021 and 2025 :-)
AriasWave Reality Check On BITCOIN Right Now...In this video, I unveil the truth.
It's imperative for me to express this because, in truth, we're all entangled in greed, eagerly chasing wealth.
I liken myself to the Grinch, employing every skill I possess to thwart the propagation of this misguided notion.
We're ensnared in a cycle of deceit. This isn't a bullish market; rather, we're ensnared by the ongoing Bitcoin hype.
The Toppiest Top is in the CHARTS. BTC TO 200K OCTOBER 2025The chart shows the BTC cycles - green box is the bull run which usually lasts about 1064 days from absolute bottom to new ATH. Followed by the bear market marked by a red box lasting about 364 days. The new ATH each cycle is also historically 75-78 days after halving event. A fibonacci extension drawn from absolute bottom to ATH in the 2nd cycle and from ATH to bottom, shows that the 3.382 level predicted the next ATH for the 3rd cycle. Doing the same fib extensions in the 3rd cycle give us the red circle area. These 2 fib levels combined with 78~ days post halving and 1064~ days post absolute bottom show us that around October 13 2025 we could see a new ATH at anywhere between 176k to maximum of 225k.
Bitcoin - ZOOM 🟡🚀 ZOOM 🟡🚀 ZOOM 🟡🚀 #Bitcoin
ZOOM 🟡🚀
ZOOM 🟡🚀
ZOOM 🟡🚀
Stay tuned for updates dear Crypto Nation😎
Comments💭, Likes♥️ & Follow🔗appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
60-70k still in the cards for winter Bitcoin Sideways with no bounce until spring, then 150k; or heavy whipsaw volatility to kickstart bullrun to 150k? Either way i see BTC at a 6 figure price point later this year. The setup though, is unknown, given my 2 speculations above.
Although there was a scare this past wk, btc creen bollinger bands on the weekly have remained in the heavy upward pressure position, this will drag price up yet another week. Cant call bear until next sundays close. So we remain bullish. If upward pressure ceases; will update. Unlikely.
The monthly on btcusd.We haven't seen a monthly candle with a positive closing of more than 40% since 2020. There is little to say here, except that it will be difficult to understand when a correction will arrive, something that many are waiting for, it is not known whether buyers will give the possibility of seeing lower levels, the highlighted area is the one at 58k usd , where there is a price structure drawn in the previous bull run in early 2021.
BTC - observation on the monthly chartPast performance is not indicative of future results. Still, a little observation on the monthly chart:
Every time the RSI moved towards 70 coming from an RSI low, a correction of at least 2 months and at least 30% in price followed and that's pretty much where we currently are.
Bitcoins tumultuous path to 130kAs we entered the bull cycle after exiting the red bubble, the clock started. We have measured each bull market gains since the beginning of bitcoin, and the factor is 1.618. Formula is as follows;
To find the next number in the pattern, let's examine the relationships between the given numbers:
297 ÷ 183 = 1.626
51.8 ÷ 30.8 = 1.678
10 ÷ 6 = 1.667
1.4 ÷ 0.8 = 1.75
The pattern appears to involve dividing each number by a decreasing, but relatively close value. The differences between these division results are not consistent. However, there seems to be a general trend of division with values around 1.6 to 1.7.
Let's continue this pattern and divide 1.4 by a value close to 1.6 to 1.7:
1.4 ÷ 1.65 ≈ 0.848
So, the next number in the pattern could be approximately 0.848.
848% is the next gain percentage of next bull cycle.
Thats the easy part; the factor we cannot relate to is TIME. We are left to charting fractals and Trying to find ratios between previous cycles and bull markets. My calculations say Nov '24. Election time.
I titled this tumultuous because though we have the ability to go straight up and God candle, I think that is unlikely as 70k resistance is strong. I think the faster we go up and touch that resistance (40k in 2wks) the quicker and deeper the downturn would be, we see our purple line stretching diagonally to november, its not straight up and down like the previous bull markets. Leaving us to infer we could have a deep ABC wave depending how quick we touch 70k from here (35k)
Slow bleed up $BTC (weekly)How is the bull market treating everyone?
Not as fast as you might like? I feel you
My creentrend pressure script which is free and open source on my page has printed (x) and held that stance for multiple weeks now, making bitcoin have that upward wave. The creen trend pressure signals are (in one part) the relation of price to the upper and lower bollinger bands, which are slowed to 55.
These printed signals signify the impending move of bitcoin, as there is no faking the move that is already happening.
UPDATED $BTC Quantitative ChartDear Traders and CryptoLovers!
I am saddened I need to update this QUANTITATIVE Chart as a tradingView Mod removed my last post for having a logo... but rules are rules. If you need to prove my awesomeness and accuracy of the last chart, I will add the post to Medium, and you'll also find it on social media - links at the bottom of this post and on my profile.
My thoughts...
I'm about to speak Elliott Wave - so if you are not a fan, skip this part.
BTC is likely in the 1st subwave of the PRIMARY 3 of the Supercycle Wave structure
In the current wave pattern, the current wave is one primary wave of the 3rd supercycle.
This needs to pass the ATH to confirm 1 of 3 Supercycle - which it almost has, so here we are!
1st of 3rd PRIMARY WAVES - SUPERCYCLE!
3rd SUPERCYCLE WAVE Formation corrections in the larger pattern 'should' be faster as Elliott wave describes a 3rd wave as the swiftest and usually longest.
Taking into account the 4-year cycle, the 5th subwave of Primary 1 of the 3rd wave Supercycle should be completed by 21st March, allowing for 1-2 months correction for the Primary 2 of the 3rd Wave Supercycle with this 2nd wave bottom formed before APRIL -MAY 2024 or before the bitcoin halving event. Coincidence or not, there is a LUNAR ECLIPSE on 24-25 MARCH :)
QUANTITATIVE CHART
I have adjusted my idea starting from August 22, 2022, as more data becomes available.
This chart shows the 4-year cycle broken down and event timing, which are accurate.
QUANTITATIVE CHART
Scroll down to the last idea, as this preceded the taken-down post.
SUPERCYCLE WAVE PROJECTION - Using "LISANACCI" I have projected the following -
Depending on wave measurements as we progress well into 2025 we could see a high to over 200K - super bullish or lower wave targets as shown on the chart when more data is available.
I will update as the chart progresses, and if you want my daily BTC updates, my information is in the footer and on my profile.
BTC ROAD TO 200K: Its Not Magic Just Follow The Pattern Pinky: Its too early for a rally, Perky; we need a correction...
Perky: Hold my bear, Pinky; you'll get it when I'm high.
PS: This chart is a continuation of our previous BTC chart published on May 16, 2022, with slight modifications; a link to the previous chart is below.
Chart Keys
Orange Horizontal Line|~Prox Halving Dates
Yellow Bars: Range From Halving to ATH
Pink Bars: Range From ATH to Bottom
Red Channel: Period of Accumulation
Not so much has changed in our chart since the last time, with prices taking shape as earlier expected. Currently, we've seen the price scale through the accumulation phase after hitting the lows of <$16,000 in Nov 2022.
Highlights:
1. From charts, we can see it takes bitcoin exactly 3 years from the last ATH to get back to ATH levels again, as seen in 2013–2016, 2017–2020, and 2021–2024.
2. Usually, breaking ATH signifies the start of the MARK-UP phase in the cycle movement.
3. In the past, ATH is usually broken after halving has taken place, but this time we may be seeing a price break past ATH before halving, which is a massive change and huge indication for exponential growth. These changes might be due to Bitcoin ETF effects on the macro perspective.
4. After halving, we have approx. 1 year until the new ATH, and if the trend continues the way it is right now, we may see massive upside change.
My Expectations for the Cycle:
Usually, i base my BTC price expectations on several factors;
1. Total Market Cap: In the last cycle, we saw a 3X Mkt Cap growth from the previous ATH of about MIL:1T in 2017 to $3T in 2020. If the same applies, we might see net Mkt Cap grow from $3T in the last cycle to >$9T by 2025. This is very possible, as ETFs, futures, and mass awareness are already in place.
2013-2017 Cycle: Mass Awareness Propelled by Retail Investors.
2017-2021 Cycle: Futures Market, Institutional Acceptance by Mixed Retail/Institutions.
2021–2025 Cycle: ETF, Futures, Institutions, by All Parties.
Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle.
All things being equal, at $9T, Mkt Cap bitcoin dominance will likely be around 40–50%, which should set it at $T3.8–4.5 and likely put the price in the range of $178k to 238k/BTC. MASSIVE!!!
2. Halving Effect: This year, the halving effect should set the mining reward at 3.125 BTC per block, which would increase the average cost of mining from the previous $19k to about $38k. Naturally, this will set the new average fair price for BTC at $40,000 and, of course, the market value at $60,000.
Based on history:
2013 Cycle: >9000% Growth from Halving Price
2017 Cycle: >3000% Growth from Halving Price
2021 Cycle: >1000% Growth from Halving Price
2025 Cycle: >300% Growth from Halving Price???
As seen above, I'm expecting a 300% growth from the halving price, which likely should be from $60k to $180k, which is a fair value and tallies with our Mkt Cap Expectations above.
This makes a lot of sense as naturally supply and demand tend to kick in with full force after halving, and considering ETF in play, the demand will be massive, coming from large institutional investors, hedge funds, asset management firms, BTC intrinsic market trading being the best performing asset of the year, and so on.
PS: Chart will be updated after halving in April
Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle.
Disclaimer: This chart analysis is purely done with price action, personal observation, thoughts, and halving cycles; it does not take into consideration any fundamentals and should only be used for educational/entertainment purposes, not to be construed as a form of financial advice
