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BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis Monthly ChartHere is my Elliott Wave analysis of past cycle tops and bottoms along with projections for future wave counts. We can see some very interesting fractals regarding the date ranges between the Bitcoin halving events and the corresponding tops and bottoms. Bitcoin's very first halving event was in November 2012 and it took ~365 days to reach the market cycle top followed by ~516 days to hit the market cycle bottom. It's interesting that starting with the second halving event in July 2016 the fractal reversed in that it now took Bitcoin ~518 days to reach it market cycle top followed by taking ~365 days to reach its market cycle bottom. With this historical fractal in mind, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the upcoming halving in Apr 2024 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 3 count and marking the market cycle top at ~$79K. This top aligns with Steve's 5.3 theory and would also align with the white median line on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it maintains its current trajectory. Now from this top, I'm projecting that Bitcoin will complete the Wave 4 count ~365 days after hence marking the market cycle bottom at ~$31K. This bottom aligns with the upper green band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory and is also critical support. Also with this fractal, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the halving in April 2028 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 5 count and marking the market cycle top at ~149K. This top aligns with the lower red band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory. Happy trading!
BNC:BLXLong
by nestorsocoolitshot
1
BTC where should be the Bitcoin ATH based on previous cycles.On the chart, I marked 4 previous peaks, which have been matched to the current cycle and halving. This helps us know approximately when we should sell Bitcoin. In the drawing, we have 4 vertical lines symbolizing the peaks from previous years, namely 2021, 2019, and 2013. They are about from 350 days from the halving to 520 days after the halving. The red area is a high-risk zone for buying new coins, it is rather a place to exit investments and secure satisfactory profits. Holding altcoins for too long leads to losses. Bitcoin's fluctuations can reach -70% to -80%, so it's worth realizing profits, withdrawing the initial investment, and securing your position. This chart will be corrected for time shift, depending on when BTC breaks the previous peak from 2021. The provided data serve as guidelines and do not constitute a perfect source for exiting BTC. PL: Na wykresie zaznaczyłem 4 poprzednie szczyty, zostały one dopasowane do obecnegu cyklu i halvingu. Dzięki temu wiemy kiedy mniej więcej powinniśmy sprzedać bitcoina. Na rysunku mamy 4 kreski pionowe symbolizujące szczyty z poprzednich lat tzn 2021, 2019 i 2013. Są one około od 350 dni od halvingu do 520 dni po halvingu. Obszar czerwony jest obszarem wysokiego ryzyko kupowania nowych coinów, jest raczej miejscem wycofania się z inwestycji i wyciągnięcia zadowalających zysków. Przetrzymania altów za długo prowadzi do straty. Wahania bitcoina potrafią wynosić -70%-80% więc warto zrealizować zyski, wyciągnąć wkład i zabezpieczyć swoją pozycję. Wykres ten zostanie poprawiony o przesunięcie czasowe, zależne od tego kiedy btc przebije poprzedni szczyt z 2021 roku. Podane dane służą jako wskazówki i nie stanowią idealnego źródła wyjścia z BTC.
BNC:BLXLong
by Paul_Crow
1
BTC when should it break the ATH based on 3 cycles (timing)I have marked on the chart when CRYPTOCAP:BTC broke its previous ATH from 3 cycles. This will help us determine where we are in the cycle, and whether to adjust our sale and in which direction. If there is no breakthrough of the ATH from the previous cycle this year, then we have a problem. I remind you that cyclicity is not statistically confirmed. On the chart, you have 3 arrows with the year labeled. The arrows indicate the time Bitcoin needed after the halving to break the previous ATH. The green vertical line represents the current halving. PL: na wykresie zaznaczyłem kiedy CRYPTOCAP:BTC przebil poprzednie ATH z 3 cykli. Pomoże to nam określi w którym miejscu jesteśmy cyklu, oraz czy przesunąć naszą sprzedaż i w jakim kierunku. Jeśli nie będzie przebicia ath z poprzedniego cyklu w tym roku, no to mamy kłopot. Przypominam że cykliczność nie jest potwierdzona statystycznie. Na wykresie macie 3 strzałki z podpisanym rokiem. Strzałki są czasem ile potrzebował bitcoin po halvingu do przebicia poprzedniego ATH. przetlumacz Zielona pionowa linia oznacza obecny halving.
BNC:BLXLong
by Paul_Crow
Using Gann Fans To Time The Parabolic Move To The TopUsing Gann fans, admittedly in a way that they are not supposed to be used, it seems to give a reliable indication of when Bitcoin will begin the parabolic move to the top. If you draw a Gann fan from the top to bottom of each cycle, you can see that whenever Bitcoin leaves the 8/1 line of the fan, it appears to start a parabolic move to new ATHs with very little downside. These 8/1 lines were a downward sloping 18 degree angle in both 2016 and 2020, and in 2023 it is a 13 degree angle. The yellow line marks the halving. In 2016 Bitcoin found itself right at the 8/1 line on the halving. After a bit of a pullback, it began a parabolic move to the top. 2020 is a little less clear due to the black swan of covid, but it went above the 8/1, then came back down for a retest, then went on a parabolic move to ATH. At this point in 2023, we are right in the middle of the 8/1 line (at 47k) and the 4/1 (at 32k). I think a push to 47k is probably more likely, but either way, I expect it to be near the 8/1 line at the halving, which would be around 44k. Once it moves away from this line, I think a parabolic move with little to no downside will have began on the way to a new ATH. This Gann fan, which you can get by drawing from the top of 2014 to the top of 2018, created several significant trendlines, which we have just come above, but remains to be seen if they will hold. Similarly, you can get this Gann fan by drawing one between the 2018 and 2020 top, which also resulted in several significant trend lines. The top of that channel is at about 51k, and the bottom is 37k. On a potential pullback, this would be a first area that I would look at of significant possible support.
BNC:BLX
by Badhalf
Major Resistance After rejecting off the L1 ( white line ) in the second week of January @48k my next target by default is the L2 ( red line ) @30k by the end of Q2 or beginning of Q3. These support & resistance levels are calculated using my proprietary tool called LifeLines. Think of them as moving averages on steroids. I doubt that this happens but in the case that we close the month of February above 48k then I will be waiting for a closure below again before entering another position. In other words I am very confident that we will see a greater pullback before continuing the greater trend to the upside. Stop loss @49k
BNC:BLXShort
by TheBossssss
3
THE BEAR MARKET CONTINUES PART XIIWelcome for another grand update on Bitcoin part of THE BEAR MARKET CONTINUES PART XII. Even though Bitcoin has surpassed its All Time High of April, i still believe that an epic fall awaits us. A huge bearish divergence on the RSI has formed on the monthly chart. We also see that the monthly chart closed almost exactly at 161.8% of the wave (a). The wave target (c) is based on the bottom trend line of a huge growing fibo channel. Note that FINAL TARGET goes exactly to the top of wave III. Each of the waves has its target for some reason. The waves are not drawn randomly. Wave I has a target of approximately 13880 USD. There is a high wave swing (V) and also a peak wave a. The area is also located weekly MA 300. Wave II has a target of approximately $ 34,500. It's a point of control for the entire structure from $ 20,000. At the same time, there could be a moving average of MA 55 weekly. Wave III has a target of around $ 2,560. There is strong weekly support at this level. There is also a Fibo retracement 0.236 throughout BTC history. Wave IV has a target of 10760 USD. It is the center line of the whole channel and strong monthly resistance. Note also the Fibonnacci relationships of the individual waves that they are also not random. Wave V is the end of wave (c). See past analyzes of this series for more information.
BNC:BLXShort
by Fox666
53
Benford's Law Applied to BitcoinContinuing the series as we consider the validity of this approach, here are the midpoints across magnitudes for Bitcoin. For more information regarding the origin of this analysis please refer to previous posts linked below. Benford's Law, also known as the Law of Anomalous Numbers, describes the tendency of the leading digit of an unrestricted collection of data to conform to a power law distribution as seen below. This natural law is the underlying basis for using logarithmic price charts in order to view rate of change over time. By taking midpoints, I am simply adding gridlines to the chart, but have found it interesting how these and other midpoints act as support or resistance time and time again. The probability of leading digits: P(1) = 30.1% P(2) = 17.6% P(3) = 12.5% P(4) = 9.7% P(5) = 7.9% P(6) = 6.7% P(7) = 5.8% P(8) = 5.1% P(9) = 4.6% Legend: 1.33 light blue 1.78 purple 2.37 pink 3.16 red 4.21 orange 5.62 dark green 7.50 light green 10 dark blue Next order of midpoints in gray I couldn't keep the next order of midpoints for the entire price history since tradingview only allows so many lines of pinescript code. You should still notice how minor and major highs and lows occur at these midpoints shown and additional midpoints not shown. As we'll see when looking at other assets, I've become convinced that this approach of viewing price over time should be included when forecasting potential minor and major highs and lows.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
bitcoin is not going up to 1 million or anywhere close to thatIt's actually most likely in ABC retracement which if we just ended wave B, we should see a strong move down for wave C and no ETF bullshit will make it go to 200k or higher. However, there are always bullish and bearish counts. If we are really in a bullish uptrend we should see a strong move up sometime soon as this should be a 3rd wave impulse where we are now. I try to make things very simple so I marked everything in ABC, whereas a professional Elliot wave analyst would probably count it all somewhere different. To me, this is a big massive range with deviations marked above and below ranges. any support or resistance in between -the golden pockets .618 are to be bought or sold(.786 0n log scale in this photo). There are many support and resistance levels on the chart, which I'm planning to buy and sell, bet the main idea is here very clear, I want to see market structure broken on every support and then up for retest into golden pockets(linear). If we show bullish signs of resistance I will not short or sell my spot BTC and will be looking for higher. target to the bottom is around 6-7k and i don't care about ETF or any black swan shit, the only thing that bothers me is that when we reach below 10k I'm afraid that we might not be able to buy, because of something like coinbase going down, this actually is the thing that worries me the most. All the panic and bad news you would see at that price is a normal practice, just like you see all the bullish news here at the top at 48k
BNC:BLXShort
by Trader_Polo
2
BTC: Next 5-Week Candle is Critical and WhyHi Everyone! Simply wanted to point out how important the "closing" of the NEXT 5-Week candle is critical. Very critical... Why? Well, read the text inside the Blue Text Bubble; which states: Next 5-Week candle is critical. How so? Every time both Red and Blue Lines "close" above white/aqua level 80, the White Upper B-Band Holds Support. What do I mean by "holds support?" If we have a pullback, the candle will "close" at or above the White Upper B-Band. The White Upper B-Band is at $35,452.32 at this writing with 5-Days and 11-hours remaining in the current 5-Week candle. If you remember my previous chart publication regarding Garreth salloway's prediction of $32,000 to $30,000 by end of May, 2024, I mentioned the Bitfinex Hack of 2016 several times. Look at where the price fell down to in the 5-Week time frame during the Bitfinex Hack. It fell down to the White Upper B-Band. However, the Aqua Upper B-Band ended up holding support during the Bitfinex Hack due to the 5-Week "closing" above the Aqua Upper B-Band. So, the NEXT 5-Week candle is extremely important. In that we really want the Red and Blue Lines to "close" above level 80. If the Red and Blue Lines can "close" above level 80 the next 5-Week candle, this would mean two things: #1 - High Probability the Bull Cycle is officially in full swing. #2 - The White Upper B-Band has a high probability of "holding" support.
BNC:BLX
by WyckoffMode
13
The chart no one wants to see or believe!There is more than one way to skin a snake. Not only price can hurt you... Time can hurt you too! How about some up and down action for 3 to 5 years that goes no where? Like shacking the Jar and angering the ants so that they loose faith and confidence, so when the rally really actually starts they won't believe it! Maybe it got to easy to buy and hold for 2 to 3 years and sell? If you are a hodler for long term, then this should not affect you and you should just keep buying. It actually should be viewed as a gift as prices will come back to low prices for stacking. In this chart I'm hitting two birds with one stone as I Have added Silver, Gold, S&P500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones. Why? so we can see how Bitcoin has interacted with these 5 other markets. By taking a glance at them, It is very clear to see that all of these markets have had affect on Bitcoin in one way or another. This is not to be taken as written in stone and non of the prices or moves are literal and just examples. The point is a long term zig zag pattern and staying range bound to shake out the greed and impatient or weak hands. How about life happening and being forced to sell although you have no intent too? The more that time passes in bad times the likely you'll be forced to sell to stay a float. Nothing has changed in bitcoin network, in fact it keeps getting stronger and healthier but a pause in price could be healthy in the bigger picture. So what happens from here? We just stack for 5 years and watch it bounce in between the Nasdaq and Dow? Well, yes and no. There could be other altcoins that run fairly hard during this time period. For example, Ethereum and Ethereum based tokens. Gold and Silver could go on a run. Also narratives could change on a dime. Truth is... no one knows, you just have to keep and ear to the street and pay attention. Don't get caught 1 step behind. Without a doubt, it's a great time to stack!! No one can argue that. Thanks for viewing WeAreSat0shi Have a blessed new year!
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
4
Is something wrong? The halving come early?We are looking at a chart of bitcoins entire history against the stock to flow. The stock to flow is the orange line that price action tends to follow. The green line on the lower part of the chart with the what looks like speed bumps in is the deviation of the stock to flow. Well, the deviation in the past has made moves higher almost precisely the halving. Yet here we are over a year away from the halving and it's signaling something. What is it saying? or could it possible be broken? or is there another underlying issue? Let's take a look. First off the stock to flow is sitting right at 52.6k and right now and the price of bitcoin is at roughly 16k. This is the biggest deviation from the stock to flow it has ever had in a bear market. The price now is so detached from the S2F that it could be literally telling us that bitcoin could be as cheap to by right now as it is right before a halving. This is all backed up by the RSI indicator on the bottom that is showing us bitcoin has never been this over sold on the monthly ever before. OK, BUT WHY? why is it so cheap right now? Good old fashioned fear could be the answer. Or is there something else wrong? Is it something nefarious? Only time will really tell the answer to that. From what I see , I think we are waaay over sold, so much that the S2F has deviated more than ever and the RSI says the same thing. So does this mean the bottom is in and we won' t go lower ? No, we actually can go lower, What it could mean is that this a very rare anomaly that might just might never happen again. It could be the norm in bitcoins future as it grows. Or it could be the buy of a lifetime and could explode higher in the weeks. One this for sure... it's a damn good time to buy. Legend S2F Model Value S2F Bands Deviation RSI let me know what you think in the comments below Thanks for looking WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed! The RSI is also the most oversold
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
10
Monthly on btcusd.January ended with a Doji candle, a symbol of uncertainty and often when seen on the tops a prelude to reversals. But for a reversal of the trend, confirmation will be needed and we know that the underlying trend is bullish, so in this context we can use the doji candle to understand whether it will make a retracement or not, using the highs and lows of the candle. For the February or March candles, a closing below the minimum should be seen as a retracement signal because to reverse the underlying trend, in addition to confirmation, time is also needed and on this we have seen that the trend has been bullish for more than a year . A close above the doji's high, however, would be a very strong bullish signal, consolidating a trend that for now seems to catch its breath in the short term and that's all.
BNC:BLX
by Melupira89