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The chart no one wants to see or believe!There is more than one way to skin a snake. Not only price can hurt you... Time can hurt you too! How about some up and down action for 3 to 5 years that goes no where? Like shacking the Jar and angering the ants so that they loose faith and confidence, so when the rally really actually starts they won't believe it! Maybe it got to easy to buy and hold for 2 to 3 years and sell? If you are a hodler for long term, then this should not affect you and you should just keep buying. It actually should be viewed as a gift as prices will come back to low prices for stacking. In this chart I'm hitting two birds with one stone as I Have added Silver, Gold, S&P500, Nasdaq and the Dow Jones. Why? so we can see how Bitcoin has interacted with these 5 other markets. By taking a glance at them, It is very clear to see that all of these markets have had affect on Bitcoin in one way or another. This is not to be taken as written in stone and non of the prices or moves are literal and just examples. The point is a long term zig zag pattern and staying range bound to shake out the greed and impatient or weak hands. How about life happening and being forced to sell although you have no intent too? The more that time passes in bad times the likely you'll be forced to sell to stay a float. Nothing has changed in bitcoin network, in fact it keeps getting stronger and healthier but a pause in price could be healthy in the bigger picture. So what happens from here? We just stack for 5 years and watch it bounce in between the Nasdaq and Dow? Well, yes and no. There could be other altcoins that run fairly hard during this time period. For example, Ethereum and Ethereum based tokens. Gold and Silver could go on a run. Also narratives could change on a dime. Truth is... no one knows, you just have to keep and ear to the street and pay attention. Don't get caught 1 step behind. Without a doubt, it's a great time to stack!! No one can argue that. Thanks for viewing WeAreSat0shi Have a blessed new year!
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
4
Is something wrong? The halving come early?We are looking at a chart of bitcoins entire history against the stock to flow. The stock to flow is the orange line that price action tends to follow. The green line on the lower part of the chart with the what looks like speed bumps in is the deviation of the stock to flow. Well, the deviation in the past has made moves higher almost precisely the halving. Yet here we are over a year away from the halving and it's signaling something. What is it saying? or could it possible be broken? or is there another underlying issue? Let's take a look. First off the stock to flow is sitting right at 52.6k and right now and the price of bitcoin is at roughly 16k. This is the biggest deviation from the stock to flow it has ever had in a bear market. The price now is so detached from the S2F that it could be literally telling us that bitcoin could be as cheap to by right now as it is right before a halving. This is all backed up by the RSI indicator on the bottom that is showing us bitcoin has never been this over sold on the monthly ever before. OK, BUT WHY? why is it so cheap right now? Good old fashioned fear could be the answer. Or is there something else wrong? Is it something nefarious? Only time will really tell the answer to that. From what I see , I think we are waaay over sold, so much that the S2F has deviated more than ever and the RSI says the same thing. So does this mean the bottom is in and we won' t go lower ? No, we actually can go lower, What it could mean is that this a very rare anomaly that might just might never happen again. It could be the norm in bitcoins future as it grows. Or it could be the buy of a lifetime and could explode higher in the weeks. One this for sure... it's a damn good time to buy. Legend S2F Model Value S2F Bands Deviation RSI let me know what you think in the comments below Thanks for looking WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed! The RSI is also the most oversold
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
10
Monthly on btcusd.January ended with a Doji candle, a symbol of uncertainty and often when seen on the tops a prelude to reversals. But for a reversal of the trend, confirmation will be needed and we know that the underlying trend is bullish, so in this context we can use the doji candle to understand whether it will make a retracement or not, using the highs and lows of the candle. For the February or March candles, a closing below the minimum should be seen as a retracement signal because to reverse the underlying trend, in addition to confirmation, time is also needed and on this we have seen that the trend has been bullish for more than a year . A close above the doji's high, however, would be a very strong bullish signal, consolidating a trend that for now seems to catch its breath in the short term and that's all.
BNC:BLX
by Melupira89
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Lucas Daily, Weekly, & Monthly EMAs)Closing in on the completion of the series on moving averages, I have overlaid the EMAs using Lucas Numbers to determine the number of periods to measure for daily, weekly, and monthly closes. 2 black 1 orange 3 red 4 pink 7 purple 11 dark blue 18 light blue 29 light green 47 black 76 orange 123 red 199 pink 322 purple 521 dark blue 843 light blue 1364 light green 2207 black 3571 orange By now I have presented a sufficient number of moving averages to compare. Hopefully perspective has been given to the shortcomings of rigidness. I do not intend to push the importance of one over another. The purpose of these posts on moving averages is to clarify the immanence of short and long term rates of change. Measuring previous rates of change can only aid in the identification of future changes in rates of change. Future posts will show my preferred metrics. How else can we play with this data? Over time, I will explore the deviations of means both from each other and from the current price. We will also consider how significant moving average crossings are. We'll note moving averages as being more significant when they are parallel or align with channels since different participants looking at different metrics arrive at the same conclusion, the rate of change.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Lucas Daily, Weekly, & Monthly SMAs)Continuing the series, Lucas Numbers are ultimately derived from phi, the golden ratio. I consider them Fibonacci Multiples because I discovered them by taking the ratio of nonsequential numbers along the Fibonacci Sequence. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs using Lucas Numbers to determine the number of periods to measure. 2 black 1 orange 3 red 4 pink 7 purple 11 dark blue 18 light blue 29 light green 47 black 76 orange 123 red 199 pink 322 purple 521 dark blue 843 light blue 1364 light green 2207 black 3571 orange It shouldn't be surprising to see Lucas Numbers behave similarly to Fibonacci Sequence moving averages.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoins Moving Averages (Fibonacci Daily, Weekly, Monthly EMAs)We know what to expect, but we might as well show the chart with Exponential Moving Averages. I begin to wonder if the deviations between close moving averages have any significance. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closes, I have overlaid the EMAs using the Fibonacci Sequence to determine the number of periods to measure. Starting with the 5th number of the Fibonacci Sequence: 5 black 8 orange 13 red 21 pink 34 purple 55 dark blue 89 light blue 144 light green 233 black 377 orange 610 red 987 pink 1597 purple 2584 dark blue 4181 light blue We really don't need to consider multiple time frames, but should remain cognizant that using a shorter period to measure the sets will result in more precision given sequential numbers approach phi, the golden ratio.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoins Moving Averages (Fibonacci Daily, Weekly, Monthly SMAs)We have taken a look at Daily, Weekly, & Monthly Moving Averages for commonly used numbers given our base 10 system, and discussed the reason for the discrepancies across time frames. Now we take a look at how moving averages change using the Fibonacci Sequence across multiple time frames. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs using the Fibonacci Sequence to determine the number of periods to measure. Starting with the 5th number of the Fibonacci Sequence: 5 black 8 orange 13 red 21 pink 34 purple 55 dark blue 89 light blue 144 light green 233 black 377 orange 610 red 987 pink 1597 purple 2584 dark blue 4181 light blue Understanding that the next number in the sequence is related to the previous by a factor of phi, the golden ratio, is it really a surprise that these moving averages trend so closely despite changing the time frame?
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Common Daily, Weekly, & Monthly SMAs)This is a comparison of Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) for commonly viewed periods using closing data for difference periods. I have overlaid the SMAs for the following sets of periods using Daily, Weekly, and Monthly closes. 10 black 20 orange 50 red 100 pink 200 purple 500 dark blue 1000 light blue 1500 light green 2000 black 2500 orange 3000 red 3500 pink 4000 purple 4500 dark blue ... Is there any significance between the relationship between the 100 day, 100 week, and 100 month SMAs? Are you surprised that the 1500 day and 50 month trend so closely? Can one or a group be more useful than others? A necessary consideration when determining the usefulness of multiple moving averages is how they relate to each other. The relationship of these moving averages are baked into the fact that we use numbers in base 10 for the selected set, where as, the periods used have changed based on our accepted grouping of days and divisions of a solar year.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Fibonacci, Weekly)Continuing this series on moving averages, here they are using the Fibonacci Sequence. We have already done this for daily closes and other periods. Using weekly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs of commonly used sets. The same color represents the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. Starting with the 5th number of the Fibonacci Sequence: 5 black 8 orange 13 red 21 pink 34 purple 55 dark blue 89 light blue 144 light green 233 black 377 orange ...
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Lucas, Weekly)Moving right along, here are the averages using Lucas Numbers. Refer to past posts for a look at daily closes and other sequences. Using weekly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs of commonly used sets. The same color represents the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. 2 black 1 orange 3 red 4 pink 7 purple 11 dark blue 18 light blue 29 light green 47 black 76 orange 123 red 199 pink 322 purple 521 dark blue ...
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Common, Weekly)In a previous post, I introduced moving averages and common periods measured using daily closes. Now we look at the same number of periods measured but each period is one week instead of one day. Using weekly closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs of commonly used sets. The same color represents the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. 10 black 20 orange 50 red 100 pink 200 purple 500 dark blue (not yet shown) 1000 light blue 1500 light green 2000 black ... Next we will look at the other sets of periods previously using weekly data instead of daily.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin halving analysisMany Traders have attempted to to compare previous halving cycles with the current Halving cycle coming up in April this year. considering that there as only been three previous halvings - the first one back in 2012 which does not give us any very useful data or information, so then there’s really only two Halvings that give us any useful information, the last one in 2020, and the one before that. The last having had a significant pullback prior to it occurring. however, the largest part of this dump was actually caused by the Covid worldwide crisis. Therefore, if we look at where bitcoin’s price looked like it would’ve bottomed out it, had the crisis not occurred, We can see that the bottom happened around five months before the halving. Therefore this shows that this cycle is completely different as we have not seen anything like that happened so far. could it be that we have already seen all of the selling/consolidation happening over the last few months as bitcoin has stepped its way up. This is very different what happened in 2020 with so very strong parabolic rise, and then a big sell-off that big parabolic rise has not really happened. This time it’s been a much more of a steady upward growth. Therefore people might be in for a shock when bitcoin just continues to go up. maybe there will be a small dip after the halving - as in what happened in the 2016, halving cycle.
BNC:BLX
by The_Mummy
1
BTC Market Cycle | Repetitive and Predictable Market CycleThe Bitcoin market cycle can be easily predicted by studying historical data. Whenever you seek an idea of where the market is heading, you can always look at the past to gauge the future. However, this doesn't guarantee that the predictions stated here will unfold exactly as described; it's a PREDICTION, not a fact. Let's examine the chart displayed here. The market cycle repeats itself every four years, with our chart divided into four cycles, the fourth being the current cycle we are in. Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a major event known as Halving, where the number of blocks containing Bitcoins is halved every four years. We started with 50 Bitcoins released in a block every 10 minutes; in 2012, that amount was reduced to 25 BTC. In the following cycle, it was halved again, and this will continue to happen every four years until all Bitcoins are mined. Currently, we are heading towards the fourth halving event, which will see the number of blocks released reduced to 3.125 BTC. Due to this event, the price of Bitcoin appreciates in value every four years. This is driven by supply and demand, as fewer Bitcoins are mined than in the previous four years (reduced supply), creating scarcity and increasing demand. The mining difficulty also increases, causing miners to be reluctant to sell the Bitcoins they've mined, contributing to the price increase. On our chart, we have three completed cycles that look almost identical. The cycles consist of a bull market where the price experiences a significant increase, followed by a bear market where the price drops in the range of 80–85%. This is followed by the first expansion, where we see a slight price increase, followed by the first accumulation phase. Prices move up and down within a specified range during this phase, also known as the consolidation phase. We then move on to the second expansion and the second accumulation, usually forming just before or within the halving period. This not only shows us that the market cycles are similar but also allows us to predict future events. At the time of writing this, we are three months away from the fourth halving, and it appears we have entered the second accumulation phase, as seen in the past three cycles. Prices should trade in a specified range for a few months after the halving. When you examine the halving events on the chart, you can observe that we usually enter the bull run somewhere between 6 to 8 months after the halving. Based on that, we can predict that the next bull run will start between October and December 2024, lasting until the fourth quarter of 2025. In the past, the cycles have been accurate, and we can expect the same unless a global catastrophic event occurs, as seen in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. In that phase, there was no second expansion as all markets crashed. It is my opinion that this led to the bull run not reaching its full potential. Had we experienced the second expansion, the price would have moved slightly higher before the second accumulation phase, leading to an extended bull run pushing the price near or above $100k. My price prediction at the end of the cycle, assuming world events stay normal, is to see Bitcoin in the range of $120–150K. What do you think the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2025 will be? Like, share, and feel free to leave a comment. Let me know if you agree or disagree with this analysis.
BNC:BLXLong
by TeeBusa
68
Benford's Law (The Law of Anomalous Numbers)In a previous post we discussed the significance of price levels. Prior highs and lows are often revisited, sometimes more than once and act as resistance and support. Like a magnet these major and minor highs and lows appear to attract and repel price over time. With this information we drew trendlines creating channels in order to anticipate future price levels. To view a growing price chart over a long period of time is impractical using an Arithmetic scale for price. For the most part, all analysis is done using a Logarithmic scale instead. This allows us to view the percent change uniformly. To understand the drawback of an arithmetic chart, consider how it may look for prices to change from 2 to 10 then 10 to 50. The move from 2 to 10 is only a difference of 8 units, whereas, 10 to 50 is 40 units. The percent change is the same, as is the rate of change assuming the same amount of time eclipsed. Logarithmic charts allow for a better gauge on momentum, but our understanding of numbers as they relate to each other may still be incorrect. The Law of Anomalous Numbers or Benford's Law states that given a data set that does not have built in constraints or parameters to influence the output of data, the leading digit will follow a power law distribution. The larger the data set and orders of magnitude covered, the greater the conformity to this distribution. We may have assumed that the most likely outcome of leading digits in a data set would be uniform, but this would be incorrect.  As a percentage the expected distribution of leading digits using numbers in base 10 is as follows: P(1) = 30.1% P(2) = 17.6% P(3) = 12.5% P(4) = 9.7% P(5) = 7.9% P(6) = 6.7% P(7) = 5.8% P(8) = 5.1% P(9) = 4.6% It should be noted that the shape of this distribution holds regardless of the base of the number system used. Using base 10, the median leading digit of the distribution is 3.16. This means that half of all data points should fall between 1.00 and 3.16 while the other half fall between 3.16 and 9.99. Without this understanding, we might have otherwise expected 5.5 to be the median leading digit as in the case of a uniform distribution. The chart above shows equal spacing between price levels on a logarithmic chart. They can be found by taking the square root of 10 (= 3.16), then taking the square root of 3.16 (= 1.78) then cubing 1.78 (= 5.62). Midpoints play a significant role in my analysis and is the basis for using these numbers. 1.0 black 1.78 light blue 3.16 red 5.62 dark blue This organizes the expected distribution into quarters. Over time the actual distribution of leading digits observed should gravitate towards the distribution of Benford's Law. While I have had my doubts about the validity of using these numbers as price levels, I couldn't keep this to myself given its apparent relevance.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
1
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Lucas Numbers)Lucas Numbers This is the final set of numbers for periods that we'll analyze in this series. In previous posts we discussed the significance of phi, the golden ratio, 0.618 and how Lucas Numbers relate to the Fibonacci Sequence. Using daily closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs. The same colors represent the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. 2 black 1 orange 3 red 4 pink 7 purple 11 dark blue 18 light blue 29 light green 47 black 76 orange 123 red 199 pink 322 purple 521 dark blue 843 light blue 1364 light green 2207 black 3571 orange Next we will take a look at the same Moving Averages but using weekly closes instead of daily closes.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles
Bitcoin's Moving Averages (Fibonacci Sequence)The Fibonacci Sequence In a previous post we discussed phi, the Golden Ratio, 0.618. Adjacent numbers along the Fibonacci Sequence trend toward this ratio. Growth and decay can be witnessed through this proportion. Using daily closes, I have overlaid the SMAs and EMAs. The same colors represent the same set of periods while the brighter color is the EMA and the duller color is the SMA. Starting with the 5th number of the Fibonacci Sequence: 5 black 8 orange 13 red 21 pink 34 purple 55 dark blue 89 light blue 144 light green 233 black 377 orange 610 red 987 pink 1597 purple 2584 dark blue 4181 light blue Next we will take a look at Moving Averages using Lucas Numbers and conclusions will be saved for later.
BNC:BLX
by UbiquitousAngles