update btc Here's a BTC update.
Regardless of the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, I see BTC being distributed for a new recap, good luck everyone!
BLX trade ideas
Sell The News Event | BTC Bull Cycle | Pre Halving 2024🔴 All Time Low
🟢 All Time High
🟠 Halving
After ETF Approval, BTC hit the 50K and then retrace to the Supports.
1-Support: 40K to 38K
2-Support: 32 to 30K
⚠️Keep in your Mind⚠️
Institutions Never ever want you to make Money.
If ETF approves, then Institutions create FOMO in retail investors. When Retailers fill their bags, Institutions Dump the Market using a piece of big news.
🤐 BTC Dump to around 30%
🤐 ALTs Dump to around 50%+
Stay Safe & Avoid High Leverage.
Bitcoin's next cycle top REVEALEDAs you can see from the chart, if you measure how many days before a halving, did the cycle low occur.
For ex, in November 2012's halving, ~373 days before btc found a cycle low, projected into the future, ~373 days after the halving, a cycle top is in.
Same thing with 2016's halving.
Cycle low ~540 days before the halving, projected into the future ~540 days after the halving, we have a cycle top ($20k).
Yet again, with 2020's halving, btc found a low around 513 days before the halving, projected into the future, it took 513 days for a cycle top to be in.
Now in 2024's halving. Btc found a cycle low ~525 days before the 2024 halving ($15k)..Projected into the future ~525 days after the halving we should get a cycle top in Sept 2025.
Will history repeat itself yet again?Check back with this chart in 2025 :)
Good luck
Percentage from MABetter to keep an eye on this one.
The distance in percentage of the 100MA is a very accurate indicator IMO
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Is this a breakout?
Moving averages played a big role as an indicator for technical trendanalist. It helped to find support and resistance during the price history of Bitcoin.
An other interesting instrument is the distance from a MA measured in percentage, also that could have been a guide to find tops and bottoms for Bitcoin.
There is one particular trend-line that could have been an indicator to spot a top for bitcoin.
But is this one going to break soon?
Do you think this has some importance?
I would love to hear some input, ideas and maybe we can discus it further together!
Have a great 2024
Bitcoin Log Chart - Green Range Lows Tapped Twice AlreadyIf you think we are going to get major opportunities to buy much cheaper Bitcoin in the near future, you may be surprised if we don't get the chance.
Bitcoin has already touched the lower range (green box) of macro accumulation that we've seen in the past, twice, which is typical in a bear market with the second usually as a higher low.
This has already happened, and we are about to exit this green accumulation range box that I have simply drawn on the chart as my prediction of what was to come.
Now that we have gotten this scenario, the question is - how much longer does BTC hover around the lower bottom band of this Log curve, until it breaks upward with momentum and expansion?
Bitcoin 2022-2025 Bitcoin 2022-2025 (September - end of the cycle)
To begin with, we set price and time on the chart, talk in the price of the asset.
The price of an asset depends on supply and demand (as corny as it sounds)
We have a few major events that are waiting for the market
1. Halving - this event is about 111 days away. Halving reduces the Bitcoin mining block. Halving does not increase the value of Bitcoin. Less than 7% of all bitcoins left to be mined is 1.5 million bitcoins. And there is a fierce competition for those bitcoins.
2. BTC ETF
The fight between very large funds already owning bitcoin will be competitive, for the right to be the most sought-after BTC ETF. And the main point of this is that these large funds will not sell real Bitcoin. They're not going to make money selling real BTC. They're going to sell the contract. But in order to sell those contracts, you'll need to have real BTC. Now think about it, who has real BTC? The answer is Coinbase and now look at the NASDAQ:COIN chart.
Once the BTC ETF is accepted Bitcoin will move to another asset class - and will be next to gold, indices, etc. Different financial organizations, pension funds, foundations, etc. will be able to invest in it.
There will be demand from all sides.
3. BTC network, ODRI, BRC20
This network will be very popular in 2024
The ecosystem is just being created, commissions will be high in Bitcoin, so L2 solutions (DOVI) will be created.
In general, the demand for Bitcoin will be huge.
Best Regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin on the Cusp of a new Bull MarketThis new BTC cycle continues to rhyme with the previous 3 cycles almost perfectly.
everyone said this cycle would be different but I am just seeing more of the same...
In trading we should expect the same until proven otherwise, its like the trader continuing to attempt a break out trade while the market is moving sideways in a range, it might reject 7-8 times before it finally breaks out a changes its behaviour.
So far in the reaccumulation year price has moved up to the 0.618 which is the pre-halving target, exactly the same thing happend in the last 2 cycles, and its happening again this cycle.
Now the ETF approval could change that this cycle and we could push above the 0.618 pre halving which 47k on BTC for this cycle, so we have an outlier factor in play.
We could see trading above but a throw back before the weekly and monthly closes OR a change of charater that is more bullish and potentially we see a new all time high before the halving for the first time ever... I think thats unlikely and we see a 30% throw back between the ETFs launch and the halving.
Then post halving we start to feel the increased demand from the new institutional channels, and incentives wall st brokers will be getting, plus the marketing budgets to sugget and advertise people to buy BTC ETFS... combined with the cut in supply from the halving, leads us into a new bull run.
IF we hit similar Fib targets as the last cycle that could move us up to levels around 180k at the 3.272 for a lower target, 3.618 equalling last cycles high would be 200k, and potentially an over shoot to around 230k at the 4.236 fib level.
lets see what the market brews up for us and as always we need to keep an eye on cycle timing, FED liquidity levels, whats happening with interest rates and QE/QT around the end of 2025.
Thanks for following see you in the next update.
Next BTC Cycle is underway If we follow the same path of the last 2 cycles we should push up to around 48k and then move sideways in reaccumulation for about 1 year until the bull run post halving in 2024.
Bitcoin Flippening Theory Based On AriasWaveSince embarking on the creation of AriasWave, my primary objective has been to delve into corrections and unravel their expansive potential. My focus extended to scrutinizing the potency and characteristics inherent in 5-Wave movements, as they often offer insights into their upward limits. Regarding the Bitcoin pattern, from the outset, I harbored reservations about its purely impulsive nature, except for the cyclical pumps associated with halving events. While I don't predict Bitcoin's descent to zero, I discern indications that it may lag behind in performance compared to other projects efficiently fulfilling similar functions.
This isn't a dismissal of Bitcoin's revolutionary impact, as it undeniably fueled innovation. I remain open to all possibilities, but prudence dictates acknowledging superior risk/reward scenarios when alternatives with greater efficacy present themselves. Hence, I propound my flippening theory, shedding light on the potential future displacement of Bitcoin by various alt-coins, contingent upon their respective patterns.
The End of Banking v2Improved chart from The End of Banking part 1:
"The primary weapon the (((oligarchs))) have is the USD and banking.
We have seen the breakdown of this weapon every since the divorce of East and West when SWIFT was banned from Russia. Alternatives to the dollar have been suggested, but only BTC remains.
I've done the math. When the weakness of the dollar is fully revealed, bitcoin will reach 8 million dollars per coin. Of course, we'll have WWIII on our hands, and so with great power comes great responsibility.
Happy New Year."
Using fractal from 2010-2011, extended timeline and reduced slope of price change. Target high @ June 2025. S-curve completed, priced in at around 8 million USD/coin.
The End of BankingThe primary weapon the (((oligarchs))) have is the USD and banking.
We have seen the breakdown of this weapon every since the divorce of East and West when SWIFT was banned from Russia. Alternatives to the dollar have been suggested, but only BTC remains.
I've done the math. When the weakness of the dollar is fully revealed, bitcoin will reach 8 million dollars per coin. Of course, we'll have WWIII on our hands, and so with great power comes great responsibility.
Happy New Year.
200k in 2026?My yearly analysis.
Logarithmic Fibonacci 2.272 level and high long-term log growth curve.
Previous price and RSI action around halvings supporting the trend.
THE ROYAL FLUSHCould this be Wave C of the Primary Wave 1 & 2?
If the Banks, Blackrock and all the other Big Money wants Bitcoin, this is how and when they would have planned to take it from you.
New Bullish target set for 57k/My trading planAs you can see, I set my fibbonacci according to the log scale and this is my result.
As stated before, the 0.786 fibbonacci level gets hit in each cycle before a major pullback.
However, I believe the price will push beyond the 0.786 to the 350 moving average shown.
I'm expecting a FOMO explosion during and after NYE until the ETF news is announced.
Regardless if the ETF is approved or denied, I believe it will be a sell the news event.
In the meantime, 57k is my current long target.
If that target is not reached and we get a significant pull back below the 0.786, I will consider adding to my long position at or above the 0.618 Fibbonacci level.
I hope this helps someone out there. Goodluck and God bless! And happy New Year!
Bitcoin Bollinger Band 👀 (End of Santa rally)The volatility of the asset can be viewed relative to the width of the Bollinger lines, and it is also convenient to use the BBW oscillator for this.
✍️We have mainly 3 waves of increasing volatility before the main bull run. The first is mostly the bottom of the market, and the second or third is the midcycle peak. If one wave was quite large, the next one is mostly smaller, like in 2019.
🤔In our case, the waves of volatility are more similar to 2016. I expect something in the middle between 2022 and 2023, so a possible stop somewhere around ~1.00.
💡How does such a wave end? This is mainly a retest of the middle line 🟠 of the Bollinger bands, now it is 33k+, note that it is rising.
2015-2017 vs 2022-2024 pre-ATH's golden cycleSo far, our current golden cycle is most similar to the '15-'17 one. We started off with a crash, but it recovered fast, a re-accumulation period followed and now we are heading into the golden rejection. If we do reject, i expect us to S/R flip the re-accumulation range. Like each past golden cycle, a re-accumulation phase follows into the halving before the bull begins his run and sends us into new ATHs
BITCOIN ASO- ASO means " Average Sentiment Oscillator ".
- This indicator can be used on Cryptos, Stocks, Forex.
- it's better to use it on a large TF to take out the noise.
- The deal with ASO is : it's very simple...
- The trend is up when the blue ASO oscillator line crosses the red line upward.
- The trend is down when the red ASO oscillator line crosses the blue line upward.
- There's a period of time for the bears.
- There's a period of time for the bulls.
- Now the bulls are coming, just a matter of time.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin, some high time frame speculation.If #Bitcoin follow its historical trend, I anticipate a trajectory as follows: The approval of an ETF could propel BTC towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, approximately at $54,000. This might be succeeded by a retracement to the 0.236 Fibonacci level, situated at around $18,600. Subsequently, a surge to a fresh all-time high is foreseeable, with potential targets at 2.618 (approximately $174,800) or 3.618 (around $240,300).
