bitcoin lifetime scenario Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.
BLX trade ideas
BITCOIN pullback in 2024In the fog of war. The ETF shows the perception of future mass participation. We think the ETF is a buy, while Smart money sees this as a point of sale. Volatility will confuse the masses into selling at the wrong time like it has always happened. Fear will be the indicator on when to buy. Watch the news only to do the opposite or you will just donate more hard earned money. Wallstreet bets on when you will fail. In a bull market, is when you buy the dip.
Trade safe~
Time based entry points for bull run 2024/5 Based on previous cycles, measured days intervals between ATH-ATH, ATH-ATL, ATL-ATL. From there projected the entry points for the 2024/5 BTC bull-run. Price predictions based, once again on ATH from preivous cycles, where the multiples from cycle to new cycle diminish. 140k base, 240k optimistic prediction.
Post ETF BTCSo I will preface this by saying..I believe almost ANYTHING is possible in Crypto. Exchanges have varying liquidities, and it's a relatively new asset class. So 12k wick possible... Sure. It's not in my top 2 or 3 base cases right now however. That being said...
I primarily have 3 "possible" paths I see for BTC at the moment, Green and Red spends time in this recent "channel" (orange dashed horizontal lines), then Judas Swings one direction, dumping/mewning other. The more time we spend in/around this Channel, the higher probability I give this.
3rd scenario is Yellow path...we don't spend much time, continue to dump down to 23-27k.
As you can see from the Volume Profiles, we've got both PoCs (From ATH down to 15k, AND from 15k till now) down below 20k...so to me that indicates we had HEAVYYYY buying down there. The primary reason I don't think we need to revisit below that level.
Our recent action has tapped into ATH to 15k "Premium" multiple times recently, so I wouldn't be surprised to see us dump into "Discount" of 15k to Present (sub 32.2k) before resuming our next leg in this Bull Run.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
BTC Weekly Chart - Brave New CoinThere will always be volatility with COINBASE:BTCUSD Bitcoin and the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Crypto space but it's patience and structure that keeps me involved. It's in the code; the pattern will repeat itself! The BTC ETF news this week was excellent for people of America. We are still in great shape.
Still Bullish on the Weekly! #FollowTheSignals #RipOrDip
Not Financial Advice...Trade with Confidence and Control.
Start of a new golden cycleSince ancient times we have seen the golden as the most satisfying geometric ratio, it can be used to analyze the proportions of natural objects but also artificial systems such as Bitcoin. I believe in the golden to be the most influential level in markets.
Last cycle, i published the fractal Bitcoin followed during the first 2 pre-halving cycle’s and except for the Covid black-swan it respected the phases a third time like a charm.
Now our bottom (15465) is in, the 2023-2027 cycle can take-off. We accumulated and switched momentum now bulls are back. We will see a relief rally to this cycle’s golden (61.8% off 15465->69000) which is waiting at 48550usd to reject the level and start the re-accumulation into the next block-halving which is estimated to be around april 2024. After the 4th halving we are ready for our run-up to new price discovery in circa 2025, lets go.
Educational links
Fibonacci levels: www.investopedia.com
Golden ratio: www.canva.com
Bitcoin halvings: cointelegraph.com
See you in 2027 for another cycle!
The "EXPERTS" are wrong! The bull run is upon us!This chart is to show anyone still on the fence about buying bitcoin, weather the bottom is in and if bitcoin is about to enter a bull market.
Lets take a look at this 2 week chart of bitcoin with three indicators.
1 CM ULTIMATE MA
2 PI CYCLE BOTTOM (only the short MA to keep it clean)
3 TRADERS DYNAMIC INDICATOR (TDI)
All three of these indicators are screaming that not only the bottom is for 6 months now but that the bull run is right around the corner. We can also see that price action would battle here with these areas until they broke above and confirmed the bull run, we are not there yet, but bitcoin is in the amidst of this battle as we speak. So, once these lines are conquered the bull should be official. It will not go below until the bull run is over. the one exception for this is covid in 2020, but it fairly quickly recovered from.
Lets look at the facts.
The thick green line that turns red in bear trends is the cm ultimate and the thinner green is pi cycle. Three previous times in history the pi line has crossed down below the cm ultimate which marked the eventual bottom. The cross up is what is important here as every other time in history marked the bottom well behind it and was approaching the inevitable next bull phase. {Highlighted with ovals}
Now the TDI
The TDI is actually showing confluence which only strengthens our analysis. The TDI also showed bullish divergence for many weeks before the latest breakout mark with yellow lines. Also the TDI shows strength and momentum build up as we compare it to the previous market cycles. The red line first makes a bottom and then crosses the green line. then it crosses the median yellow line and the green line then follows it. When both the red and green lines crossed the median yellow line in previous history, the bull run followed very shortly after. {highlighted with bigger ovals}
So, according to these indicators the bull market is coming very soon. We can have another big correction here soon, but the as long as the criteria is met the rocket ship will leave orbit.
Thank you
WeAreSat0shi
Stay blessed!
Rumors of Bitcoins demise have been greatly exaggerated. Bitcoin is now out of a bear market and is in it's initial phase of the bull market. That's not what the news is saying. The news says the worst is yet to come, I don't agree. Let's have a look.
First, the green and red zone is Gaussian Channel. It turns red in bear markets and green in bull markets. Once it turns green it stays green for the entire bull market. Well sir, it's not green, it's still red. Yes this is a lagging indicator, by the time it turns green bitcoin will be preparing to enter the next phase of the bull market.
Down below we have the crypto fear and greed indicator. I have drawn a yellow line where the support for this indicator should most likely stay the entire bull run. The corrections should go to the NEUTRAL area of 47. It is possible for it go lower like 46 45 in fear but It should recover quickly. A substantial break of this zone would likely mean the bull market is over.
How do we know all this stuff? How can we verify it? WE would look left on the chart. History may not repeat exactly, but it does rhyme.
This is my analysis of the bear market transitioning into a bull market. From last September I was calling for the Bull market to start in March of 2023. Look a the break out candle. Mid March, NAILED IT!!
We can see when prices fell in November that the fear and greed was actually rising creating a bullish divergence.
I don't expect prices to fall below into this yellow shaded section again. That doesn't mean it can't, if it does, it will not last long in my opinion. It will get bought up very quick.
Please feel free add comments or ask questions down below.
Thanks for looking
WeAreSar0shi
The bear trap is set. The 2023 bear trap
AS we can see on January 20th Bitcoin broke the down trend it has been in for over one year now. Recently the resistance was tested and was made in to support as Bitcoin took a strong bounce off of it. WE can clearly see this in the chart with the highlighted oval.
Above that we have the bear trap zone and the fomo zone A break and hold of the 25.4k level leads to the setting of the bear trap. This bear trap zone goes all the way to 32k above that is the fomo zone and it goes to 47k and possibly even higher. These ar eth e levels to look for in the coming weeks.
Another thing of note to look for is that Bitcoin could retest the break out zone at a later date {shown with the blue arrow} and as long as it holds it could then lead to the bear trap.
What to look for
The RSI will be a dead give away on what move comes first as I have drawn the down trend that it is in at the moment. If this should break above the down trend then it will do with the price and confirm the move.
Thanks for looking
Hit the like and subscribe for hot off the press charts.
WeAreSatoshi
Stay blessed in 2023.
Might be making this script public again sometime soon!!So i tunned this indicator in such a way that the top represents volume and a period. Which current action is either underperforming or over performing the past previous period. Same with the bottom indicator is set to price action.
The bottom indicator more importantly being in the RED whilst inclining for some period.
The top being green seems to me as if I blundered into accuracy with it being a good potential buy period for bitcoin.
There are a lot of ways in which this can be depicted and experienced analysis would not have a problem with potential bottom of markets and reversals.
More to the point that this indicator has multiple uses and if one understands it to some degree could use it for various reasons.
I did not design this indicator an contribute its development to Balipour for unknown reasons was banned along with the removal of his/hers content.
So in good time, i may see if its possible to make this indicator public as it has quiet a few settings and I am sure people could benefit from it.
update btc Here's a BTC update.
Regardless of the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, I see BTC being distributed for a new recap, good luck everyone!
Sell The News Event | BTC Bull Cycle | Pre Halving 2024🔴 All Time Low
🟢 All Time High
🟠 Halving
After ETF Approval, BTC hit the 50K and then retrace to the Supports.
1-Support: 40K to 38K
2-Support: 32 to 30K
⚠️Keep in your Mind⚠️
Institutions Never ever want you to make Money.
If ETF approves, then Institutions create FOMO in retail investors. When Retailers fill their bags, Institutions Dump the Market using a piece of big news.
🤐 BTC Dump to around 30%
🤐 ALTs Dump to around 50%+
Stay Safe & Avoid High Leverage.
Bitcoin's next cycle top REVEALEDAs you can see from the chart, if you measure how many days before a halving, did the cycle low occur.
For ex, in November 2012's halving, ~373 days before btc found a cycle low, projected into the future, ~373 days after the halving, a cycle top is in.
Same thing with 2016's halving.
Cycle low ~540 days before the halving, projected into the future ~540 days after the halving, we have a cycle top ($20k).
Yet again, with 2020's halving, btc found a low around 513 days before the halving, projected into the future, it took 513 days for a cycle top to be in.
Now in 2024's halving. Btc found a cycle low ~525 days before the 2024 halving ($15k)..Projected into the future ~525 days after the halving we should get a cycle top in Sept 2025.
Will history repeat itself yet again?Check back with this chart in 2025 :)
Good luck
Percentage from MABetter to keep an eye on this one.
The distance in percentage of the 100MA is a very accurate indicator IMO
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Is this a breakout?
Moving averages played a big role as an indicator for technical trendanalist. It helped to find support and resistance during the price history of Bitcoin.
An other interesting instrument is the distance from a MA measured in percentage, also that could have been a guide to find tops and bottoms for Bitcoin.
There is one particular trend-line that could have been an indicator to spot a top for bitcoin.
But is this one going to break soon?
Do you think this has some importance?
I would love to hear some input, ideas and maybe we can discus it further together!
Have a great 2024
Bitcoin Log Chart - Green Range Lows Tapped Twice AlreadyIf you think we are going to get major opportunities to buy much cheaper Bitcoin in the near future, you may be surprised if we don't get the chance.
Bitcoin has already touched the lower range (green box) of macro accumulation that we've seen in the past, twice, which is typical in a bear market with the second usually as a higher low.
This has already happened, and we are about to exit this green accumulation range box that I have simply drawn on the chart as my prediction of what was to come.
Now that we have gotten this scenario, the question is - how much longer does BTC hover around the lower bottom band of this Log curve, until it breaks upward with momentum and expansion?
Bitcoin 2022-2025 Bitcoin 2022-2025 (September - end of the cycle)
To begin with, we set price and time on the chart, talk in the price of the asset.
The price of an asset depends on supply and demand (as corny as it sounds)
We have a few major events that are waiting for the market
1. Halving - this event is about 111 days away. Halving reduces the Bitcoin mining block. Halving does not increase the value of Bitcoin. Less than 7% of all bitcoins left to be mined is 1.5 million bitcoins. And there is a fierce competition for those bitcoins.
2. BTC ETF
The fight between very large funds already owning bitcoin will be competitive, for the right to be the most sought-after BTC ETF. And the main point of this is that these large funds will not sell real Bitcoin. They're not going to make money selling real BTC. They're going to sell the contract. But in order to sell those contracts, you'll need to have real BTC. Now think about it, who has real BTC? The answer is Coinbase and now look at the NASDAQ:COIN chart.
Once the BTC ETF is accepted Bitcoin will move to another asset class - and will be next to gold, indices, etc. Different financial organizations, pension funds, foundations, etc. will be able to invest in it.
There will be demand from all sides.
3. BTC network, ODRI, BRC20
This network will be very popular in 2024
The ecosystem is just being created, commissions will be high in Bitcoin, so L2 solutions (DOVI) will be created.
In general, the demand for Bitcoin will be huge.
Best Regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin on the Cusp of a new Bull MarketThis new BTC cycle continues to rhyme with the previous 3 cycles almost perfectly.
everyone said this cycle would be different but I am just seeing more of the same...
In trading we should expect the same until proven otherwise, its like the trader continuing to attempt a break out trade while the market is moving sideways in a range, it might reject 7-8 times before it finally breaks out a changes its behaviour.
So far in the reaccumulation year price has moved up to the 0.618 which is the pre-halving target, exactly the same thing happend in the last 2 cycles, and its happening again this cycle.
Now the ETF approval could change that this cycle and we could push above the 0.618 pre halving which 47k on BTC for this cycle, so we have an outlier factor in play.
We could see trading above but a throw back before the weekly and monthly closes OR a change of charater that is more bullish and potentially we see a new all time high before the halving for the first time ever... I think thats unlikely and we see a 30% throw back between the ETFs launch and the halving.
Then post halving we start to feel the increased demand from the new institutional channels, and incentives wall st brokers will be getting, plus the marketing budgets to sugget and advertise people to buy BTC ETFS... combined with the cut in supply from the halving, leads us into a new bull run.
IF we hit similar Fib targets as the last cycle that could move us up to levels around 180k at the 3.272 for a lower target, 3.618 equalling last cycles high would be 200k, and potentially an over shoot to around 230k at the 4.236 fib level.
lets see what the market brews up for us and as always we need to keep an eye on cycle timing, FED liquidity levels, whats happening with interest rates and QE/QT around the end of 2025.
Thanks for following see you in the next update.
Next BTC Cycle is underway If we follow the same path of the last 2 cycles we should push up to around 48k and then move sideways in reaccumulation for about 1 year until the bull run post halving in 2024.
Bitcoin Flippening Theory Based On AriasWaveSince embarking on the creation of AriasWave, my primary objective has been to delve into corrections and unravel their expansive potential. My focus extended to scrutinizing the potency and characteristics inherent in 5-Wave movements, as they often offer insights into their upward limits. Regarding the Bitcoin pattern, from the outset, I harbored reservations about its purely impulsive nature, except for the cyclical pumps associated with halving events. While I don't predict Bitcoin's descent to zero, I discern indications that it may lag behind in performance compared to other projects efficiently fulfilling similar functions.
This isn't a dismissal of Bitcoin's revolutionary impact, as it undeniably fueled innovation. I remain open to all possibilities, but prudence dictates acknowledging superior risk/reward scenarios when alternatives with greater efficacy present themselves. Hence, I propound my flippening theory, shedding light on the potential future displacement of Bitcoin by various alt-coins, contingent upon their respective patterns.
