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Next bull market starts by March 2023Hi fellow cryptopians and crypto enthusiasts. I am going to make a fairly bold claim here today. First off we have a bitcoin hash ribbon buy signal quickly approaching us (within two weeks) which could pump us to 50k. If this does happen it should be followed by a correction that gets boring for 4 to 5 months and should spark the new bull run by march 2023 the latest. This analysis should not be taken as financial advice as it's just for fun but lets follow and see where it leads. Having said all that I do believe the bottom is in and we are a very strong accumulation until march or mid next year. * Patience is key to success*
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
4
Bitcoin, $30k before $10kthe 3month bitcoin chart shows that bearish volume has increased in the last quarter only for price to be held suggesting a momentary pause at the middle of the range with some upside inbound. my guess is that bitcoin will now push up to the .32/.5 fibo retrace (most likely spike beyond at the range high) before the rally fails and we head to the range lows to complete the final corrective wave down to the monthly demand zone of 2021s bullrun (where the 50ma/ema lurks for ultimate support).
BNC:BLXLong
by TBTS
BTC Thesis—October 2023First Published: October 5, 2023 Disclaimer: Please be aware that the information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets carries inherit risk, always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Thesis Statement: The primary objective of our monthly BTC Thesis is to deliver comprehensive Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis, free from external influences or biases, to determine overall market sentiment. Through meticulous examination of the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames using EWT, our analysis aims to identify key levels for potential Monthly candle highs and lows. This post caters primarily to traders seeking unbiased, EWT based evidence to support their own analysis, empowering them to make well informed trading decisions. Introduction and Overview: Welcome to our October 2023 BTC Thesis, where we provide a meticulous EWT analysis, free from external influences, to decode the fractal nature of EWT and pinpoint significant trading opportunities. Our primary focus is on identifying the potential Monthly Candle high and/or low. In this analysis, we emphasize a bearish sentiment, as BTC currently undergoes a Wave 4 correction—notably an Expanded Flat. Our EWT count unveils a rare trading opportunity, the likelihood that the Monthly Candle high aligns with the bottom of Intermediate Wave 2 within the final Wave of this correction. Throughout, we stress the importance of a precise 5 Wave count down that will complete Wave C of the Cycle and the overall correction. The tone is clear: we anticipate further downside potential, urging caution and patience as we wait for the Wave formation to fully form. Macro Analysis: Our Macro Analysis begins on the Monthly time frame, delving into the rich history of price action data available on the BLX chart. EWT, known for its fractal nature, reveals a continuous wave formation, with Wave 1 of the largest degree always evolving. Currently, price action is navigating Wave 4 of the Super Cycle. Notably, Wave 3 of the Super Cycle commenced in November 2011 and featured an extended Wave 3, and, Wave 5, terminating in an Ending Diagonal, implying the potential complexity of this Wave 4 correction. We confidently identify the ongoing correction as an Expanded Flat, validated by Wave B surpassing the completion of Wave 5 and Wave C surpassing the completion of Wave A. Price action for Wave 4 typically will retrace between between the Yellow 0.236 and 0.382 FIB levels indicated on the chart. Wave Form Analysis: Transitioning from monthly analysis, we maintain our focus on the ongoing Wave 4 correction. As we inspect the Weekly time frame, the fundamental 3-3-5 Wave form of an Expanded Flat becomes evident, sparking discussions about what we have marked as the completion of Wave 3 within this correction. While there is a case to be made for a completed 5 Wave move down from the top of Wave B to the November, 2022 bottom, further analysis on the Daily time frame will be required to establish and validate a micro count. Confluence between price action on the broader Monthly chart, where the absence of observable complete 5 wave moves suggests that the overall structure remains incomplete. It is vital to underscore that an immediate reversal signal, similar the notable 'COVID dip,' remains absent, further strengthening the notion that the correction is still in progress. Additionally, current Wave 5 targets indicated by the Yellow -0.236 FIB level displayed on the Weekly chart have not been met. Micro Analysis: Transitioning from the Wave Form analysis, our primary focus is to establish a correct and valid count from the top of Wave B on the Daily time frame. This count is vital in determining whether the 5-wave move down, forming Wave C, has reached completion. Starting from the top of Wave B in November 2022, we can clearly identify a 5-wave move leading to the January 2022 bottom, completing Primary Wave 1. Primary Wave 2, formed a Triangle correction completing on the March 2022 top. Primary Wave 3 unfolded with an extended Intermediate Wave 3, completing on the June 2022 bottom. Intermediate Wave 4 formed a Complex EWT Combination Correction that concluded on the November 2022 top, which marked the start of Intermediate Wave 5. Intermediate Wave 5 completed on the November 2022 bottom completing Primary Wave 3, and establishing a count invalidation number at the top of Primary Wave 1. Despite Primary Wave 4 retracing deeper than average, it remained within the boundaries of valid price action, the count invalidation number, and adhered to the principles of the Law of Alternation, forming a simple Zig Zag correction, juxtaposed to the Triangle correction of Primary Wave 2. Price action has indicated Primary Wave 5 has commenced, as such, a Micro Count Invalidation number can be established on the July 2023 top. Presently, a validated five-wave move has been counted, descending from the July 2023 top, marking the completion of Intermediate Wave 1 within Primary Wave 5. Our assumption is that price action currently resides within Intermediate Wave 2, of Primary Wave 5, of Cycle Wave C, of Super Cycle Wave 4. Outlook: Upon the completion of Wave 2, typically at the Blue 0.618 FIB Level indicated on the Daily time frame, an immediate retracement is expected as price action transitions into Wave 3. It is anticipated that this reversal will contribute to the formation of the wick on the top of the monthly candle. While standard levels of expected price action are presented on the Daily time frame, it's crucial to acknowledge that Intermediate Wave 5 targets do not align with Primary Wave 5 targets, or, Super Cycle Wave 4 targets, suggesting the potential for an extended Intermediate Wave 3, and, Primary Wave 5. Conclusion: Our monthly BTC Thesis has provided comprehensive EWT analysis, providing traders and enthusiasts with an unbiased, EWT based understanding of BTC price action. This analysis, spanning the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames, has been dedicated to identifying significant levels for the potential Monthly candle high, catering primarily to traders seeking EWT based evidence to support their trading decisions.
BNC:BLXShort
by JMSBurton
9
Bitcoin 2025 Bullrun PredictionMy way of measuring the 4yr cycle is quite simple. I measure from top to top, and bottom to bottom. The first few years of BTC it was in discovery, there was no real patterns and the volume was so low, so I personally disregard these years. The 2012 bullrun was the first somewhat established bullrun in my opinion, so I start from the top of that one, which was Nov 2013. By simply measuring the tops and bottoms from that point it is quite crazy how close the dates get. 4 years is 1461 days. If you look at the chart you can see how well that matches up. I personally used this chart to call the bottom in November. By projecting this data, it would put the top somewhere around late Q3 to Q4 2025.
BNC:BLXLong
by joshnewmanwork
Bitcoin Grand Supercycle Wave 3This is obviously a massive stretch, and just some bullish very long term hopium. Everyone already knows Bitcoin is going to 100 Bajillion Trillion dollars. But...HOW LONG does it take? If I had to take a wild stab in the dark. I would say somehwere about 61.8% as long as Grand Supercycle Wave 1. 2,577 days. A wave 3 in Elliot Wave theory is typically the strongest motive impulsive wave in the dominant trend. The "Bull Market." I truly believe ours has already begun. We are about to retrace one final leg of the last smaller term motive impulsive wave, and then finally break structure. WE NEED to. Either that, or we have the very real possibility of seeing MUCH bigger discounts on Bitcoin. 24k will be the line in the sand. 22,8 will present opportunity for divergence and will be the last stand. Anything lower than that and i truly believe 14k may be in the cards. I will buy. You probably should too.
BNC:BLX
by QuantumDivergence
2
📊 Correlations Unveiled: NIKKEI vs. BTC! 📈Mirror Image: NIKKEI vs. BTC Upon closer inspection, you might be astounded by the uncanny similarity between NIKKEI, Japan's stock market index, and BTC, the poster child of cryptocurrencies. 📊 Leading or Following? NIKKEI's chart seems to be almost leading the way, showcasing patterns and trends that BTC later follows. This observation highlights the importance of studying correlations in financial markets, offering potential insights into one market's effect on another. The Power of Correlations Understanding and harnessing the power of market correlations can provide traders and investors with the ability to predict potential price movements. By recognizing these relationships, you can make more informed decisions in your investment strategies. Conclusion: Correlations Matter The resemblance between NIKKEI and BTC charts is a testament to the power of correlations in the financial world. Being aware of these connections can provide valuable insights and, ultimately, contribute to more successful trading and investing. Feel free to like, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments! 💚📈💚 ❗See related ideas below❗
BNC:BLXLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
Using Fib extensions to project 4 year BTC bull highsI have been using Trend Based Fib extensions in Trading View for many years. It is one of the tools you can use in Trading View for free. In June 2011 Bitcoin hit its first major high at $31.90. Its bear market low was $2.01 in Nov 2011. Use the Trend Based Fib extension tool; first point is $31.90 in Apr 2011 and the second point is the $2.01 low in Nov 2011; Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Apr 2013 at $268. In July 2013 Bitcoin hit its low at $65. First point is $268 in Apr 2013; the second point is $65 in July 2013. Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Nov 2013 when it hit the $1177 bull market high in Nov 2013. In Jan 2015 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $164. First point is $1177 in Nov 2013; second point is $164 in Jan 2015. Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Oct 2017. If you had DCA'd from then until Dec 2017, then you would have gotten out between $10000 to $15000 which is still very good. In Dec 2018 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $3129. First point is $19764 high in Dec 2017; second point is $3129 in Dec 2018. Bitcoin hit the 3.618 Fib extension in April 2021 and again in Nov 2021. If you had DCA'd out in those two months you would have gotten out at very good times. In Nov 2022 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $15460. First point is $69000 high in Nov 2021; second point is the $15460 low in Nov 2022. Bitcoin in Oct 2025 (another 35 month bull market from the Nov 2022 low) has a 2.618 Fib extension at $156,000 and a 3.618 Fib extension at $209,000. I feel reasonably confident that Bitcoin will hit within that range of prices by Oct 2025. After another 12 month bear to say $40000 by Oct 2026 and another 35 month bull market, the 2.618 and 3.618 Fib extensions yield a Bitcoin price between $500,000 to $600,000 by Sep 2029. After another 12 month bear market to say $130,000 and another 35 month bull market, the 2.618 and 3.818 Fib extensions yield a Bitcoin price between $1.3 M to $1.8M by Aug 2033.
BNC:BLXLong
by shubbs
1
The Squid Game Shows Why Most People Fail to Profit from Trading"Squid Game, the sensational Netflix series that has taken the world by storm, offers a gripping mirror to human psychology, reflecting the intricate dance of emotions and decisions that we often encounter in the world of finance. Just as unsuspecting individuals are lured into the deadly games by the enigmatic subway stranger, many novice investors are drawn into the stock market by tales of friends striking it rich, often diving in headfirst without a hint of the rules of the game. It's a rollercoaster ride from beginner's luck to the perilous cliffs of attribution bias. Beginner's luck, that elusive phenomenon where newcomers seem to outshine the experts, can be an enticing trap. It leads to overconfidence, a misplaced faith in gut feelings, and an overzealous desire to trade that often ends up costing a small fortune in fees. These overconfident traders become engrossed in their own world, neglecting the wisdom of statistics and putting all their eggs in a single, precarious basket. Attribution bias, another insidious cognitive bias, rears its head as traders concoct explanations for their successes and failures. Profit? They're geniuses with uncanny foresight. Loss? Blame it on market conditions or mere bad luck. The mind constantly seeks excuses for every twist and turn. Even great minds like Isaac Newton, who could unravel the mysteries of the cosmos, fell victim to the madness of financial markets, a glaring example of attribution bias in action. In Squid Game, the players, after witnessing horrifying tragedies during 'Red Light Green Light,' are given a choice to continue playing or not. Overconfidence and attribution bias grip the survivors as they believe they are destined for victory, much like many traders who cling to the belief that improbable outcomes are within their grasp. Mob psychology and the bandwagon effect rear their heads in the story, too. The players form alliances and teams based on earlier factions, mirroring the tendencies of investors to follow the crowd rather than adhere to their own strategies and analyses. Panic buying, selling frenzies, and susceptibility to pump-and-dump schemes ensue. In the financial world, these psychological phenomena can lead us astray, costing us dearly. But unlike the brutal Squid Game, financial markets aren't a zero-sum game. With a solid understanding of market characteristics, rules, and diligent research, you can gain a statistical edge. As a trader, I'd argue that technical knowledge accounts for less than 5% of the equation; it's all about mastering your cognitive biases and maintaining emotional control. So, just as the surviving players in Squid Game strive to outlast their competition, investors and traders should strive to outsmart their own psychological pitfalls. In the end, success in the market isn't about luck but about mastering the intricacies of the human mind in a complex financial world. If you found this insightful, don't forget to like and follow for more quality content! Feel free to share your thoughts and questions below—let's navigate this financial journey together!" This chart is inspired by @Michael_Wang_Official
BNC:BLXEducation
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
3
Bitcoins next 6 months outlookBitcoin is still clearly in the bear market and won't make it's initial big push out for 6 months most likely. This should be good news to you if you are stacker. The bears have a strong hold over price action, but as we can see on the RSI, the hold is weakening with bullish divergence forming in this underling indicator that simply determines "relative strength". If bitcoin maintains this divergence you can expect a very quick price pop up by the end of the month (seems likely) . The down trend resistance levels are color and thickness coded by strength. Each time any one is conquered, meaning a break above and stay above, our attention is then focused on the next one until all are broken and defeated. Stronger to weaker RED ORANGE GREEN BLUE Thanks for looking at my chart and leave a comment on what you think. My chart is educational analysis and is not to be taken as financial advice. We are all here to make money and limit our risk is the best way to do so. Contrary to the news, from what the chart is showing us... it's telling us that risk is low, the RSI has bottomed and showing signs of strength. * Bear markets are buyers markets, Bull markets are sellers markets* PS: The arrows are only examples Once again... thanks, WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed!
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
4
Bitcoin - BTC comparing Alligator cross-over 1.🔴 2.⚪️ 3.🔵 4.🟢Comparing Alligator cross-over... 1.🔴 2.⚪️ 3.🔵 4.🟢... ...dear BTC and Crypto Nation👀 Will call out loud for you when next 3.🔵 occurs🚨🚨 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto4Everybody
1