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BTC long term arc: looks bearish but have chance to break upHello guys. In the recent year Bitcoin touched the 60k level twice, failed to break up. That level is extremely important as it represents higher border of the long term arc, which is about to turn to the downside. Despite the fact that bearish direction looks pretty obvious (with support around $5k - see the red arrows on my chart), it is not mandatory to bounce inside the arc forever. There is a possibility to break it up. And when/if that happens, we will see new ATHs for sure. But right now the arc is not broken to the upside yet, we have levels to watch closely. By the way, a few years ago I published an idea with the same pattern, but for Coca-Cola stock. And later that arc was successfully broken to the upside. See the linked idea below. It's a kind of good food for thought.
BNC:BLXShort
by OmgImTrader
2
Could the start of the bull run just have been confirmed? Could this be a confirmation of a large move upwards? On the 1 Month time frame, after the RSI had bottomed and started moving above the RSI Moving average (yellow line) - the MA have in all 3 times moved in an area that decided if the momentum would move up or not. The first time this happened, the MA failed to break above the previous high - but then made a higher low and then broke out. I see this as the momentum breaking above the moving average, and then confirming that it wanted to stay above. The confirmation on the 1st green vertical line show the moment that move was confirmed. This happened in 2016 - and bitcoin went on to move 4337% from The second time this happened, was in 2020. While the RSI moving average was broken in April 2019, the retest of the moving average did not produce a higher high, and subsequently moved below the ma. In September the RSI broke out, tested the moving average, and then proceeded to move above the previous high on the RSI. This move made a 540% return on bitcoin. The Third time, where we are now. The RSI has broken above the RSI trendline, retested AND made a higher high. The low was then tested, and while it made a lower low - it did not go below the moving average, and in 2 days time will be making a higher high on the RSI. Now i cannot use this analysis to predict where the price of bitcoin will go, as the bitcoin network becomes more valuable, it requires more money to move the price. I am confident however, that we have made our cycle lows, and with all the bullish news about a spot etf coming in I do believe that large returns on bitcoin will occur - however to believe that bitcoin could do 4300% is highly unlikely, and a return less than 500% from this period will be likely I do believe, that if bitcoin closes the month at these prices, we will have a proper bitcoin bullrun. Notice how the analysis also follows the bitcoin halving schedule
BNC:BLXLong
by DiscosCryptos
BITCOIN - Initial Planning for the Wave (C) Trade...Bitcoin is expected to remain within this range until it experiences a decisive push towards the $50,000 range, but this won't happen until we witness the unfolding of a few more corrective waves. This presents an excellent opportunity for us to closely observe the trading pattern so that we can anticipate future developments. It's important to avoid trading without a clear plan, as this is likely to lead to mediocre results. Instead, we should focus on preparing for a well-thought-out execution of the final Wave (C) thrust, which is projected to be equal to the initial upward move that began in December 2022.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
Ramblings on crypto: Why the true peak is in alreadyHello friends. Remember when we said that Bitcoin "cycles" are dead? Our argument was logical and based on the fact that ideas that are given too much importance by retail traders tend to fail. 100k BTC 2021 is a good example of a narrative of this nature. It didn't happen. Why? Because that would have been too easy. Since then, they added another band onto the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, and now some traders are waking up and realizing that the Rainbow chart and any other Bitcoin cycle idea is useless. But they can be coerced into changing their mind by a pullback to the upside. They want to be deluded. They enjoy being lied to and having their bias affirmed. All it takes to convince people that the next cycle is happening is a little Echo Bubble back to ~$35,000. They will buy the top and thank the market for the opportunity. And then they will have to be punished again. It is reasonable to assume that the probability that Bitcoin has reached a peak that will not be broken in dollar terms for over a decade is very high. It is also reasonable to assume that the real value of bitcoin (inflation-adjusted) may never in history make a new high. The assumption that almost all Bitcoin market participants make is that Bitcoin must always make new highs, but this assumption is too popular and based on nothing but delusions. Here is an under-considered perspective: Crypto's *final* peak makes sense to occur at some fraction of the value of Gold's investment use market cap. Let me explain this idea further. Crypto is seen as similar to gold in that they are both finite, expensive to create, and considered "good stores of value" by many traders. So some traders think crypto should reach the full market cap of gold or even higher before the bubble pops. That's not logical at all . Only about 1 third of gold is used for investments or storing value by banks. The rest of the gold is used for real-world use cases that crypto does not and will never have. So take 1 third of the market cap of gold. Currently around 4 trillion dollars. And then realize something astonishing. The total market cap of crypto at its peak during the massive bubble ALREADY reached 3 trillion dollars! That means crypto collectively peaked at ~75% of gold's investment market cap. (gold fell a little since the peak, and no one knows the actual perfect market cap of gold, so this is not exact). But the point is not precision, it's the general idea of this fact. Phrase it this way. That was the moon. We landed on the moon. "To the moon". No. Listen carefully. We've already reached the moon. When Shiba Inu flipped Dogecoin in market cap briefly, it landed on the moon. What happened next? You tell me. Every space trip is two ways. One trip to the moon, and one trip back to earth. Living on the moon is not yet possible. So stop trying. If you had to pick any price for the joke that is Bitcoin to reach its final peak at, what would you pick? I would pick $69,000.00. The Binance market manipulators clearly have a good sense of humor, since they figured the same thing. Crypto market makers f--ing retail 69 style and making that message obvious in the charts, just as God intended. Our wave count is just one idea of what might happen, but overall the idea that crypto is finished from here on is based on logic. How many people have ever bought crypto, out of all the people who might buy it? That's a useful metric for determining how much further a Ponzi can scale before it goes bust since we all know infinite growth is objectively impossible within a finite world. The amount of fools, although constantly growing, is finite. Near the peak, nearly 9 out of 10 Americans had at least heard about crypto, and 16% of them had "invested" in it. Depending on how stupid you think the majority of people actually are (only half can be below the average IQ!), there may be a little bit more growth potential, but ultimately the lemon doesn't have much juice left, and its difficult to argue for another huge wave upwards -- how much impact would introducing the other 1 in 10 Americans who don't know about crypto really have? Regardless of all this, the short-term echo bubble thesis is also logical. It makes sense to have a bounce that will serve one main purpose: For those that sold, make them feel pressured to buy again, so the market manipulators can harvest more liquidity to short crypto heavily. After that, they let it rip to the downside again. We think Bitcoin is unlikely to go below $8,000, and would say it can bottom even in the high 11-thousands based on the volume profile which shows a strong support cliff around that area. During the huge leg down, we expect much of the similar drama that occurred the first time. Plenty of bankruptcy, massive amounts of fraud and scamming, and stablecoins going under left and right. If USDT finally gives way this time for good, or any number of other black swans occur, that will tend to mark the bottom, just like the FTX bankruptcy showed us the bottom for crypto by taking away the ability of many crypto traders to hold, and forcing them to basically sell the bottom for zero. Our trading idea is to long GBTC, until the echo bubble likely ends much later this year, and then, after the peak short the heck out of Bitcoin miners (many more will likely go bankrupt), Coinbase stock (Coinbase is likely to go bankrupt in my opinion), and various scam coins with high token unlock rates.
BNC:BLXShort
by bowtrix
15
Next bull market starts by March 2023Hi fellow cryptopians and crypto enthusiasts. I am going to make a fairly bold claim here today. First off we have a bitcoin hash ribbon buy signal quickly approaching us (within two weeks) which could pump us to 50k. If this does happen it should be followed by a correction that gets boring for 4 to 5 months and should spark the new bull run by march 2023 the latest. This analysis should not be taken as financial advice as it's just for fun but lets follow and see where it leads. Having said all that I do believe the bottom is in and we are a very strong accumulation until march or mid next year. * Patience is key to success*
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
4
Bitcoin, $30k before $10kthe 3month bitcoin chart shows that bearish volume has increased in the last quarter only for price to be held suggesting a momentary pause at the middle of the range with some upside inbound. my guess is that bitcoin will now push up to the .32/.5 fibo retrace (most likely spike beyond at the range high) before the rally fails and we head to the range lows to complete the final corrective wave down to the monthly demand zone of 2021s bullrun (where the 50ma/ema lurks for ultimate support).
BNC:BLXLong
by TBTS
BTC Thesis—October 2023First Published: October 5, 2023 Disclaimer: Please be aware that the information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets carries inherit risk, always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Thesis Statement: The primary objective of our monthly BTC Thesis is to deliver comprehensive Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis, free from external influences or biases, to determine overall market sentiment. Through meticulous examination of the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames using EWT, our analysis aims to identify key levels for potential Monthly candle highs and lows. This post caters primarily to traders seeking unbiased, EWT based evidence to support their own analysis, empowering them to make well informed trading decisions. Introduction and Overview: Welcome to our October 2023 BTC Thesis, where we provide a meticulous EWT analysis, free from external influences, to decode the fractal nature of EWT and pinpoint significant trading opportunities. Our primary focus is on identifying the potential Monthly Candle high and/or low. In this analysis, we emphasize a bearish sentiment, as BTC currently undergoes a Wave 4 correction—notably an Expanded Flat. Our EWT count unveils a rare trading opportunity, the likelihood that the Monthly Candle high aligns with the bottom of Intermediate Wave 2 within the final Wave of this correction. Throughout, we stress the importance of a precise 5 Wave count down that will complete Wave C of the Cycle and the overall correction. The tone is clear: we anticipate further downside potential, urging caution and patience as we wait for the Wave formation to fully form. Macro Analysis: Our Macro Analysis begins on the Monthly time frame, delving into the rich history of price action data available on the BLX chart. EWT, known for its fractal nature, reveals a continuous wave formation, with Wave 1 of the largest degree always evolving. Currently, price action is navigating Wave 4 of the Super Cycle. Notably, Wave 3 of the Super Cycle commenced in November 2011 and featured an extended Wave 3, and, Wave 5, terminating in an Ending Diagonal, implying the potential complexity of this Wave 4 correction. We confidently identify the ongoing correction as an Expanded Flat, validated by Wave B surpassing the completion of Wave 5 and Wave C surpassing the completion of Wave A. Price action for Wave 4 typically will retrace between between the Yellow 0.236 and 0.382 FIB levels indicated on the chart. Wave Form Analysis: Transitioning from monthly analysis, we maintain our focus on the ongoing Wave 4 correction. As we inspect the Weekly time frame, the fundamental 3-3-5 Wave form of an Expanded Flat becomes evident, sparking discussions about what we have marked as the completion of Wave 3 within this correction. While there is a case to be made for a completed 5 Wave move down from the top of Wave B to the November, 2022 bottom, further analysis on the Daily time frame will be required to establish and validate a micro count. Confluence between price action on the broader Monthly chart, where the absence of observable complete 5 wave moves suggests that the overall structure remains incomplete. It is vital to underscore that an immediate reversal signal, similar the notable 'COVID dip,' remains absent, further strengthening the notion that the correction is still in progress. Additionally, current Wave 5 targets indicated by the Yellow -0.236 FIB level displayed on the Weekly chart have not been met. Micro Analysis: Transitioning from the Wave Form analysis, our primary focus is to establish a correct and valid count from the top of Wave B on the Daily time frame. This count is vital in determining whether the 5-wave move down, forming Wave C, has reached completion. Starting from the top of Wave B in November 2022, we can clearly identify a 5-wave move leading to the January 2022 bottom, completing Primary Wave 1. Primary Wave 2, formed a Triangle correction completing on the March 2022 top. Primary Wave 3 unfolded with an extended Intermediate Wave 3, completing on the June 2022 bottom. Intermediate Wave 4 formed a Complex EWT Combination Correction that concluded on the November 2022 top, which marked the start of Intermediate Wave 5. Intermediate Wave 5 completed on the November 2022 bottom completing Primary Wave 3, and establishing a count invalidation number at the top of Primary Wave 1. Despite Primary Wave 4 retracing deeper than average, it remained within the boundaries of valid price action, the count invalidation number, and adhered to the principles of the Law of Alternation, forming a simple Zig Zag correction, juxtaposed to the Triangle correction of Primary Wave 2. Price action has indicated Primary Wave 5 has commenced, as such, a Micro Count Invalidation number can be established on the July 2023 top. Presently, a validated five-wave move has been counted, descending from the July 2023 top, marking the completion of Intermediate Wave 1 within Primary Wave 5. Our assumption is that price action currently resides within Intermediate Wave 2, of Primary Wave 5, of Cycle Wave C, of Super Cycle Wave 4. Outlook: Upon the completion of Wave 2, typically at the Blue 0.618 FIB Level indicated on the Daily time frame, an immediate retracement is expected as price action transitions into Wave 3. It is anticipated that this reversal will contribute to the formation of the wick on the top of the monthly candle. While standard levels of expected price action are presented on the Daily time frame, it's crucial to acknowledge that Intermediate Wave 5 targets do not align with Primary Wave 5 targets, or, Super Cycle Wave 4 targets, suggesting the potential for an extended Intermediate Wave 3, and, Primary Wave 5. Conclusion: Our monthly BTC Thesis has provided comprehensive EWT analysis, providing traders and enthusiasts with an unbiased, EWT based understanding of BTC price action. This analysis, spanning the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily time frames, has been dedicated to identifying significant levels for the potential Monthly candle high, catering primarily to traders seeking EWT based evidence to support their trading decisions.
BNC:BLXShort
by JMSBurton
9
Bitcoin 2025 Bullrun PredictionMy way of measuring the 4yr cycle is quite simple. I measure from top to top, and bottom to bottom. The first few years of BTC it was in discovery, there was no real patterns and the volume was so low, so I personally disregard these years. The 2012 bullrun was the first somewhat established bullrun in my opinion, so I start from the top of that one, which was Nov 2013. By simply measuring the tops and bottoms from that point it is quite crazy how close the dates get. 4 years is 1461 days. If you look at the chart you can see how well that matches up. I personally used this chart to call the bottom in November. By projecting this data, it would put the top somewhere around late Q3 to Q4 2025.
BNC:BLXLong
by joshnewmanwork
Bitcoin Grand Supercycle Wave 3This is obviously a massive stretch, and just some bullish very long term hopium. Everyone already knows Bitcoin is going to 100 Bajillion Trillion dollars. But...HOW LONG does it take? If I had to take a wild stab in the dark. I would say somehwere about 61.8% as long as Grand Supercycle Wave 1. 2,577 days. A wave 3 in Elliot Wave theory is typically the strongest motive impulsive wave in the dominant trend. The "Bull Market." I truly believe ours has already begun. We are about to retrace one final leg of the last smaller term motive impulsive wave, and then finally break structure. WE NEED to. Either that, or we have the very real possibility of seeing MUCH bigger discounts on Bitcoin. 24k will be the line in the sand. 22,8 will present opportunity for divergence and will be the last stand. Anything lower than that and i truly believe 14k may be in the cards. I will buy. You probably should too.
BNC:BLX
by QuantumDivergence
2
📊 Correlations Unveiled: NIKKEI vs. BTC! 📈Mirror Image: NIKKEI vs. BTC Upon closer inspection, you might be astounded by the uncanny similarity between NIKKEI, Japan's stock market index, and BTC, the poster child of cryptocurrencies. 📊 Leading or Following? NIKKEI's chart seems to be almost leading the way, showcasing patterns and trends that BTC later follows. This observation highlights the importance of studying correlations in financial markets, offering potential insights into one market's effect on another. The Power of Correlations Understanding and harnessing the power of market correlations can provide traders and investors with the ability to predict potential price movements. By recognizing these relationships, you can make more informed decisions in your investment strategies. Conclusion: Correlations Matter The resemblance between NIKKEI and BTC charts is a testament to the power of correlations in the financial world. Being aware of these connections can provide valuable insights and, ultimately, contribute to more successful trading and investing. Feel free to like, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments! 💚📈💚 ❗See related ideas below❗
BNC:BLXLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
Using Fib extensions to project 4 year BTC bull highsI have been using Trend Based Fib extensions in Trading View for many years. It is one of the tools you can use in Trading View for free. In June 2011 Bitcoin hit its first major high at $31.90. Its bear market low was $2.01 in Nov 2011. Use the Trend Based Fib extension tool; first point is $31.90 in Apr 2011 and the second point is the $2.01 low in Nov 2011; Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Apr 2013 at $268. In July 2013 Bitcoin hit its low at $65. First point is $268 in Apr 2013; the second point is $65 in July 2013. Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Nov 2013 when it hit the $1177 bull market high in Nov 2013. In Jan 2015 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $164. First point is $1177 in Nov 2013; second point is $164 in Jan 2015. Bitcoin hit the 4.236 Fib extension in Oct 2017. If you had DCA'd from then until Dec 2017, then you would have gotten out between $10000 to $15000 which is still very good. In Dec 2018 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $3129. First point is $19764 high in Dec 2017; second point is $3129 in Dec 2018. Bitcoin hit the 3.618 Fib extension in April 2021 and again in Nov 2021. If you had DCA'd out in those two months you would have gotten out at very good times. In Nov 2022 Bitcoin hit its bear market low at $15460. First point is $69000 high in Nov 2021; second point is the $15460 low in Nov 2022. Bitcoin in Oct 2025 (another 35 month bull market from the Nov 2022 low) has a 2.618 Fib extension at $156,000 and a 3.618 Fib extension at $209,000. I feel reasonably confident that Bitcoin will hit within that range of prices by Oct 2025. After another 12 month bear to say $40000 by Oct 2026 and another 35 month bull market, the 2.618 and 3.618 Fib extensions yield a Bitcoin price between $500,000 to $600,000 by Sep 2029. After another 12 month bear market to say $130,000 and another 35 month bull market, the 2.618 and 3.818 Fib extensions yield a Bitcoin price between $1.3 M to $1.8M by Aug 2033.
BNC:BLXLong
by shubbs
1