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600k in 2029? Alot going on in this chart. I looked at the difference in percentage increase between tops of bull runs, length of bull runs, and halvening dates to try estimate possible targets of this and the next bull run. I took the 42% decrease in the difference between the first bull run and applied that to the other bull runs. If you look at the covid year 2020, take the covid drop % and add it to the top of the the bull run that year it gets close to that 42% decrease from the increase before. Continued to apply that 42% decrease in percentage growth and got an estimated target of around 260K towards the fall of this year. Looking bull run time length increasing each on as well. Then did the same for the next bull run as well. This is just for fun showing a possibility! GL Everyone
BNC:BLXLong
by Weavs844
1
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go. There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top: May 2025 **Volume Flow**: 1157 Days **From June Bottom**: 1064 days **ETH clear bottom**: June 2022 **Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom **221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May. September 2025 **From November Bottom**: 1064 days **Major Macro Time Fibonacci** **Chainlink Fractal** **Chainlink Time Fib** March 2025 **Small Time Fibonacci** **Bull Flag End** **Average % move and time since 2019** As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025. --- May 2025 Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May. Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom. The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022. If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May. For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May. ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May. So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin. --- September/October 2025 1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025. For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart. As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022. I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025. Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025. --- March 2025 This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction. A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal. 240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025. A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025. --- Elliott Wave Section I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes. Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5? Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market? The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days. Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k. --- ### **Price Targets If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021. If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025. As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows. --- Pi Cycle Indicator If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross. --- Conclusion We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be. This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
BNC:BLXLong
by Sporia
16
Bitcoin accurate bottom and top zones BINANCE:BTCUSDT This is my market mood indicator. Accurate determine the bottoms and top of cycles. Based on this analysis on BLX chart and Monthly timeframe we can find something interesting - Marked Monthly green zones. - We never seen white color disbeliefe zones. - Previews 3 times when we saw BLUE color it was a bottom (I was impressed how accurate it play out!!!) - Now it looks like 2018-2019 period (green box-blue-green) - So now no euphoria on market. Need to see yellow, orange and top will be again at extreme red - Hard to say about timing but most likely we will test trendLine at 35-36 (maybe with fake out to 41) - Then we will see yellow and orange color on indicator and drop to covid trendLines again 21-19 and continue move forward till 2025 March to extreme RED zones and end of cycle. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto4light
Bitcoin - Lofty Promises, Disturbing Results: My Crypto Journey.I make no claim to know where Bitcoin is headed. All I know is my opinion on it, and my feelings about cryptocurrencies in general, especially how they've evolved over the years. My sense continues to tell me that things are very wrong with crypto, and that eventually it's going to fade into the uncomfortable past, a kind of failed experiment. Back in 2022, I thought that if it gets bigger and bigger, it's a general symptom of wealth concentration, exploitation, and mass delusion. I don't think this technology is beneficial to society, as it extracts both attention and resources from its participants. Unless, of course, you can manage to be one of those who profits and then turns their profits into material wealth and/or positive change. Looking at my own personal timeline for my sentiment about crypto, let's see how I ended up here: November, 2017 : I am out of college for over a year now. I've been working a tough sales job for a year and I'm beginning to get burned out. I hear about Bitcoin from a friend. "if you buy in at $10K, sell at $20k and double your money." I then learn about Bitcoin and think, well, things are pretty bleak in the world right now. I don't know what I'm doing with my life. What if the banks collapse and I'm left with nothing? Bitcoin seems like a viable alternative. I buy out of fear, around $13.8k. Then, I see my value go up. Greed takes over. I go down a rabbit hole, learning about altcoins such as XRP, XLM, and LTC. Even XRB, which later becomes Nano. What if any of these becomes the next Bitcoin? January, 2018: I think that I should have just cashed out. I must have bought the top. But, what if it all comes back even stronger? I could be rich. I pull out part of my initial investment and watch the rest continue to spiral downwards. I quit my job out of burnout. May, 2018: Bitcoin continues to make lower highs. I start working that crazy sales job again part-time, as I need the money while the bear market persists. December, 2018: All hope seems lost. I quit my sales job, again out of burnout and deciding I don't want to do this the rest of my life. I'm 25 years old. Then, I decide to look for reasons price might go up again, which would also then save me from having to go back to work again. I could just be an artist full time. I get into TA, thinking that it's kind of like art. Instead of working on my actual art or writing as much as I want to, I create all sorts of trendlines and other visual and fundamental reasons crypto could come back even stronger than before. I prepare. I buy ETH around $100. I'm now posting regularly on TradingView. I start figuring out which coins I want to load up on for the next bull run. April, 2019: The market is back. I'm pretty sure the bottom is in. I'm gonna make it. I continue to post about various cryptocurrencies on tradingview, although I begin to feel worried about altcoins. Will they survive through the next cycle? October, 2019: The market is volatile. Bitcoin finally hits $10K again, though there's something strange going on. Is price being manipulated? February, 2020: Things are starting to feel precarious. ETH has done better now, boosting my portfolio back towards break even for the first time. The COVID crash is immanent. I've decided on a career to pursue. March, 2020: Panic. Markets are screwed. I'm going down with the ship. I'm too scared to buy more because everything feels apocalyptic. September, 2020: I begin grad school. While working mostly from home and attending classes remotely, I have a lot of time on my hands to post crypto analysis. I want to invest more, but I have very little income as a student. I feel that price is about to explode upwards. However, in grad school I'm also learning a lot about systems and becoming more and more skeptical about whether crypto would bring about any positive change to financial systems. February, 2021: ETH has broken all-time high. I'm in significant profit. I'm checking my portfolio all the time. Will the altcoins rally soon? Spring - Summer 2021: There's a huge amount of dumping. What's going on here? Why does Elon Musk have so much influence over this market? I thought it was supposed to be decentralized. Tweets are having a huge effect on the market. Should I sell? No, I think it's just a correction. I'm right, at least for now. December, 2021: I'm feeling pretty bullish. Bitcoin made a significant new all-time high. But, something is tingling underneath my skin. I can't quite shake it. What's going on with this LUNA coin? A number of things are starting to unravel in my mind. For example, El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender, but the response was very tepid. It's not seeming very practical at all. If it's not a viable currency, then what is it? I think about Elon Musk. I think about Michael Saylor and his defrauding of investors during the dotcom boom. I allow the cognitive dissonance I've been experiencing completely take over. January - February, 2022: My feelings culminate. I decide to let go of all my crypto, realizing that it's not playing out ideally how I'd hoped. Plus, I'm in significant profit now. The forces that have taken advantage and control in traditional markets and the broader economy have latched themselves onto the cryptocurrency market, where investors are easily exploitable. The Super Bowl happens. Crypto starts to feel more and more like a joke. Who is really profiting from all this? NFT's are also irking me. May, 2022: I finish grad school. Terra LUNA collapses, shortly after I speculated it would. For the rest of the year, I feel validated in my feelings about crypto. FTX collapses later that year, and although in hindsight it marked the bottom of the bear market, I'm hopeful that people will stay far away from this market in years to come. I am optimistic about my own financial future, as I now have a stable career. Later in the year, I make some money day trading, but I eventually stop since it's distracting me from my work. July, 2023: I continue with my new career in the mental health field. I'm 30 years old. XRP was deemed not a security when sold to retail investors, but a security when sold to initial institutional investors. I am disappointed in this outcome, as I disagree and believe many altcoins like XRP are clear securities. I'm glad to be paying less attention to the crypto market. January, 2024: Against my speculation and to my disappointment, Bitcoin ETF's are approved. I stubbornly stay away from the market, believing the ETFs to be another cash grab and an opportunity for existing holders to cash out, particularly those whales who have been on the stablecoin side of things - the orchestrators behind USDD, USDT, etcetera. August, 2024: Ripple is only fined a tiny fraction of the initial request by the SEC for selling unlicensed securities. This opens the floodgates for money to pour back into altcoins, and for more ETFs to eventually be created. November, 2024: Bitcoin finally makes a significant new all-time high after Trump is re-elected. It had been consolidating for much of the year, seeming at times that it would break down and not push past its previous high. January, 2025: Trump is back in office. There's volatility across the market. Many are hopeful that his presidency will bear fruit for crypto holders. Meanwhile, he creates his own meme tokens and profits enormously from them, not unlike the numerous crypto grifters from years past, the grifters that took hold of the market and told me to stay away. I feel upset that price went against my speculation, though also vindicated. Crypto is exactly what I realized it was. My opinion has not changed. It's just another bulky asset, though one where the corruption is far more transparent than it is in the world of traditional finance. Even though it's there for all to see, not much is being done about it. Typical, really, of this current era of deregulation and apathy. Michael Saylor continues to hoard more and more. It's just the plaything of the wealthy now. It's what some people always wanted Bitcoin to become, but the antithesis of what many thought it represented. I'm happy with my career, and I feel good knowing I invested in myself and did not continue to chase cryptocurrencies. After all, it's better to be able to generate capital myself than wait for someone else to do it for me. It's a more certain future for me, with much less speculation. I'm also able to pay off everything from grad school with my profits from the last bull market. Bitcoin active addresses have not grown since 2017. studio.glassnode.com It is hoarding, and hoarding through custodians. Plus, those who were already into it just kept buying. A few left entirely. And a few wealthy players began accumulating. Now for a little TA: This is the structure I'm looking at for Bitcoin. Failure to push back above that orange trendline has resulted in a rejection so far. This chart should give an idea as to the various extremes price can take over the coming days/weeks: This is the longer term BLX chart, showing diminishing returns curved trendlines. If Bitcoin continues to follow this shape, the peak could be limited to $160-170K if reached this year. That is, if it has not already hit the top. The bottom of this structure is comfortably at a major level - near $30k. This bullish structure would need to break down to confirm a bearish period: Right now, the chart LOOKS bullish, but it's important to pay attention to the other signals, the other things going on behind the scenes. Public perception is important as well. The monthly chart appears bullish until the 9 EMA (near $80k now) is lost. The ultimate oscillator continues to show a longer term bearish divergence: The weekly chart can look like a tweezer top with a failed high if price cannot push back above $108k later this week. If that push up is successful, I think price can rally up towards $160k before profit taking begins in real earnest again. Let's see what happens! Thank you for going on this journey with me, especially if you've followed me since the earlier days. As always, this post represents my personal opinion and is in no way intended as financial advice. -Victor Cobra
BNC:BLXShort
by VictorCobra
1
Bitcoin Cycle Top Discussion IITLDR: Cycle Top Price: Between 123K (min.) and 144K (max.) Cycle Top Time: Between mid-March and early April. Bitcoin Cycle Top Price: Bitcoin Primary Count: Currently, Bitcoin is in the final stages of Primary Wave 5. The price has already reached the 1:1 Fibonacci extension and will likely extend higher. The following Fib extensions are: 1. 272 at 123.6K. 2. 1.382 at 130K. 3. 1.618 at 143.7K. The primary 1.272 extension corresponds with the intermediate degree wave five target, establishing it as the most probable cycle top price. Figure 1: Bitcoin Primary Wave Count. Figure 2: Bitcoin Intermediate Wave 5 Count. Bitcoin cycle Top Time: The common practice in EW theory is to measure the 1.272 Fibonacci time extension of wave 4. According to the primary count, the Fibonacci 1.272-time ratio points to February 10th. According to the intermediate count, the Fibonacci 1.272-time ratio points to February 18th. Figure 3: Bitcoin cycle Top Time – Primary Count. Figure 4: Bitcoin Cycle Top Time – Intermediate Count. Bitcoin Cycle Top According to Yearly Cycles: The last four years have shown an interesting phenomenon. Bitcoin reached a significant top between mid-March and Early April. Should this trend persist, I expect the next cycle to top between mid-March and early April. Figure 5: Bitcoin Yearly Cycle Tops. Bitcoin Cycle Top According to the 4-Year Cycle: If the March top is THE cycle top, what about the 4-year cycle? Bitcoin will likely form a higher price in an irregular correction by the end of 2025. If this scenario comes to pass, it will be in line with the 4-year cycle. The previous 4-year cycle top of 69K was also an overshooting wave B. Time will tell how the PA will evolve, but this scenario is highly likely. Figure 6: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Top 2021. If you read this post until the end, I appreciate your diligence. I hope it will be useful information that will help you make the most out 2025. Best wishes NTC
BNC:BLXLong
by NewThoughtCrypto
End of An EraBitcoin was born in 2009 in a 0-interest rate environment. This extremely speculative environment allowed assets like bitcoin to make crazy gains as loose monetary policy following the 2008 financial crisis gave everyone free cash to over-inflate asset valuations. Interest rates are no longer at 0 and are only climbing higher. This shakes the underlying foundation of speculative markets like bitcoin that enabled this crazy growth in the first place. In 2022 when the feds hiked interest rates aggressively for the first time in bitcoins lifetime, bitcoin dumped 75% in a single year. This was only a small taste of how the feds can affect these speculative markets and as they hike rates higher and higher Bitcoin will only aggressively dump more. I think 5k-20k is a fair value range for Bitcoin. Also there is a massive double top.
BNC:BLXShort
by stingray_0
Is it true that $BTC correlates with M2? Spoiler alert: not real 🗣In the last month, I have seen a hyper-fixation on the correlation of M2 with Bitcoin, as in red analysis with predictions such as a failure under 60K in February. I don't entirely agree with this analysis. 📍First, most of the analyses I have seen show such a correlation only for the last year (black frame). Do you know why? Because in previous years, the correlations were many times smaller, and you cannot make such good matches. 📍Second, you can look at the white square. There is not too much logic in Bitcoin perfectly following the outdated money metric. In 2022, Bitcoin fell from 50K to 20K while M2 continued to grow, a three-month lead there does not really fit. 💡To sum up, M2 sometimes correlates with Bitcoin, but it is not often, and the 3-month shift is nothing more than a convenient data fit. You need to look at the big picture and not fall in love with one model or metric.
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy
Next PI Cycle Top and BottomApproximately every four years, we observe a PI Cycle Top, and similarly, every four years, we see a PI Cycle Bottom. This means there is roughly a two-year gap between the PI Cycle Top and Bottom. Based on historical data, the next PI Cycle Top, expected in 2025, will likely fall between $130K and $160K. Following this peak, we can anticipate around two years before reaching the next PI Cycle Bottom. Historically, the PI Cycle Bottom tends to align closely with the previous cycle's Top, which would place it in the range of $58K to $68K. However, it's important to note that these are not fixed predictions but rather a brief analysis based on historical trends.
BNC:BLX
by seoco
1
All you need for Bitcoin to see top, bottom or a crash.These charts show everything you will ever need to buy and sell Bitcoin. 5 day BTC chart.(right chart) Orange vertical lines on chart show when the RSI touches the pink horizontal line after it touches the top red horizontal line. This indicates a bear market. Yellow vertical lines on chart show when RSI rose above orange line after touching the blue line but failed to touch the red horizontal line before hitting the pink horizontal line. This indicates a crash is coming. The green arrows on chart show whenever the blue EMA8 goes below the yellow MA55 after being above it. This indicates either BTC has entered a bear market or a crash like setup similar to covid. If we get another green arrow you will know what to do as it will be a crash or bear market. The green trendlines on chart show each bull run Bitcoin touches this trendline 3 times or more before it has a parabolic move. The anamoly being the covid crash. So far this bull run it is only twice that Bitcoin has touched the green trendline. On the LMACD the green vertical lines show everytime the 5day LMACD crosses down (blue LMACD line going under orange LMACD line) when it is above the horizontal yellow line. This has happened 21 times with only 1 time (red vertical line) where price did not drop to the EMA21 (orange moving average line) on the chart. BTC just did this cross on LMACD so it has a 95% chance of moving down to touch the orange EMA21. Based off all this clear evidence it is easy to see that you sell Bitcoin when RSI hits red horizontal line. Confirmation of bear market is as per indicators mentioned above. You buy when RSI touches blue horizontal line. You won't sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom but very close to it. You would need a different chart to calculate the exact top. This chart will stand the test of time if history keeps rhyming for Bitcoin. Monthly BTC chart.(left chart) On the monthly chart the orange vertical lines indicate whenever the Stoch RSI went above the green horizontal line. The yellow vertical line on the chart shows the covid crash as the Stoch RSI did not stay above the green horizontal line for very long. The green arrow on the Stoch RSI shows when it fell straight through the red horizontal line after being above the green horizontal line. This indicated a bear market. The pink arrows on the Stoch RSI show the crossover of the Stoch RSI (blue RSI line crosses under orange RSI line) after it fell below the green horizontal line and bounced off the blue or red horizontal lines. This indicated the top and a bear market. After seeing this current information on the Stoch RSI (bounce off blue line) it looks like the upcoming crossover will be a pink arrow. These arrows indicate time to exit the market as you can see.
BNC:BLX
by Pro_Trader_HTBB
Will Bitcoin Push BLX to New Heights? Analyzing Market Cycles anHI traders Bitcoin has the power to shape the future, and as BLX follows its path, understanding the emotional market cycles becomes key to navigating its potential. In this analysis, we’ll explore the relationship between Bitcoin's movements and the psychological phases of the market cycle. From the initial optimism that drives the first wave of buying, to the euphoria when prices surge to new highs, and then the inevitable anxiety as market sentiment begins to shift. Fear sets in during the panic phase, leading to widespread selling, followed by despair, where most investors exit the market. However, this is followed by hope as the market stabilizes and slowly recovers. Understanding how these emotional shifts influence BLX and Bitcoin will help you spot opportunities, manage risk, and position yourself for success as the market moves through its cyclical nature. The key is not just predicting the market, but mastering your emotions to thrive in any phase.
BNC:BLXEducation
by hamidTrader21
How Does Market Psychology Shape BLX's Price Movements?Hi traders "How the Psychology of Market Cycles Influences BLX" The Psychology of a Market Cycle refers to the emotional and behavioral phases investors and traders experience as markets move through different stages, from optimism during bull markets to fear and despair during downturns. Understanding these psychological patterns is crucial for making informed decisions and avoiding common pitfalls. Market cycles are deeply intertwined with investor psychology, and their impact is clearly reflected in indices like BLX, which tracks Bitcoin’s price performance. The emotional phases of optimism, fear, and recovery that characterize market cycles shape the trajectory of BLX in profound ways. Bull Markets and Euphoria: In the optimistic and euphoric stages, BLX often experiences significant upward momentum as confidence and greed drive speculative buying. The "fear of missing out" (FOMO) accelerates the rise, pushing BLX to new highs. Bear Markets and Panic: When anxiety and denial give way to fear and capitulation, BLX faces sharp declines. Investors overwhelmed by negative sentiment sell off assets, leading to steep corrections in the index. Recovery and Hope: As despair subsides and hope emerges, BLX starts to stabilize and climb, driven by early adopters and institutional interest. This phase lays the groundwork for the next market cycle. Understanding the psychological dynamics behind market cycles can help traders and investors navigate BLX’s fluctuations, make informed decisions, and avoid being swayed by emotional reactions.
BNC:BLXEducation
by hamidTrader21
The holy grail of BTC price prediction is global money supply.While nothing is perfect, the movement of global money supply this cycle has forecasted bitcoin price movements exceptionally well. Previous cycles, money supply more overlapped than predicted, except when the 2020 massive increase in money supply led BTC price higher. The lag between global money supply highs and lows and BTC highs and lows this cycle has been 10-weeks (actually 72 days give or take) for almost all major BTC price movements. I estimate this treatment missed only one BTC price movement. If this holds, we have the key to knowing BTC's price movements. Can we see into the future using global money supply indicator by SirChub to predict the BTC price? Only time will tell. If correct, we will go on a nice uptrend in price until December 2-6 or so, then see a pullback. P.S. I only added the bars pattern for a bit of fun, but did take the bars from the last time the money supply increased in a similar manner. It does make sense that we would find our next high near $100K ...and I like spreading hopium. Much more fun than spreading bear poo...and bonus: my hands don't smell like crap afterwards.
BNC:BLXLong
by Da_Prof
3
Bitcoin - Sell in March and Go Away?Let me begin with a caveat: a sample size of five is hardly enough to be statistically accurate. Regardless, this cycle analysis aligns with my Gann analysis and the Primary EW count. My thesis is that Bitcoin will make a long-term top by March or April 2025, followed by a severe downtrend. Supporting Evidence: Cycle crests. Since 2021, Bitcoin has made significant tops in March, followed by a 12W or more downtrend. Primary EW Count: According to the primary EW count, beginning in November 2021, Bitcoin is in the final stage of completing primary wave 5. This estimate relates to the price axis. It is common practice to estimate the time of a fifth wave as the 1.272 extension of the fourth wave. According to this measure, the fifth wave could be completed as early as February 2025. Gann Analysis: Throughout the current uptrend, Bitcoin’s price traded almost exclusively within the bounds of the 2/1 Gann angle support and the 1/1 Gan angle resistance. Even if completing the primary fifth wave leads to a substantial correction of more than 40%, as long as Bitcoin holds the 2/1 support, it is enough to support continuation in an overshooting wave B to the final blow-off top in October/November 2025, in line with the 4Y cycle. Best wishes
BNC:BLX
by NewThoughtCrypto
The ₿itcoin Strategic Playbook: Timing Crypto Market CyclesWhy 4 Years Matters: The Confluence of Cycles Markets move in cycles: periods of growth and contraction, driven by psychology, supply/demand, and macroeconomic forces. Two major cycles intersect in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin Halving Cycle: A predictable event every 4 years, reducing Bitcoin's supply. Historically, prices surge in the months following. US Election Cycle: Presidential elections occur every 4 years, influencing fiscal policy, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. The strategy leverages the intersection of these cycles for precision timing. Interplay Between Cycles Historically, Bitcoin halving’s and US elections have occurred in the same year, creating a "perfect storm" for market volatility and opportunity. Example: The 2020 halving coincided with the US election, followed by a historic bull market. This alignment reflects how macroeconomic events can amplify crypto trends, rather than being purely coincidental. Fundamentals Behind the Halving Cycle What is Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, occurring approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). This built-in scarcity impacts Bitcoin’s supply, historically leading to price increases post-halving. Why It Matters Historical Trends: 2012: Halving triggered a bull run peaking in 2013. 2016: Halving triggered the 2017 bull market. 2020: Halving led to the 2021 price surge. Each halving decreases new Bitcoin supply while demand continues to grow. Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead Bitcoin’s dominance often peaks post-halving as it leads the market rally. During the bull phase, altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead, offering higher growth potential. The Role of Elections Macroeconomic Impacts Election years bring uncertainty about future policies, creating market volatility. Policies on inflation, interest rates, and technology affect both traditional and crypto markets. Why It Aligns with the Halving The convergence of halving-induced optimism and election-driven uncertainty amplifies market movements. Example: 2020 saw the halving, COVID-19 stimulus, and election uncertainty, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s explosive growth. How the Strategy Plays Out Start at the Bottom (Accumulation): Look for signs of market capitulation (e.g., extreme fear in sentiment indices, low volume, prolonged price stagnation). Use indicators like RSI divergence to identify oversold conditions. Build positions gradually, focusing on projects with solid fundamentals. Ride the Markup Phase (Bull): Hold positions as prices rise, following the trend. Adjust exposure based on market conditions but avoid selling too early. Exit at the Top (Distribution): Watch for euphoric sentiment (e.g., excessive media coverage, speculative mania). Use tools like Fibonacci extensions, volume analysis, or the Fear & Greed Index to identify when to take profits. Survive the Markdown Phase (Bear): Avoid buying into dips during the crash. Preserve capital for the next accumulation phase. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index: BNC:BLX
BNC:BLX
by azad.motala