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Bitcoin Liquid Index

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Bitcoin history and future1W time frame - Every vertical dotted lines stand for halving timing, we call them "a cycle" between two lines. Every cycles have similar trend, we can mark them with three colors as below. (1) White range stand for Bull high to Bear second low (2) Red range stand for Bull high to Bear low (3) Green range stand for Bear low to Next halving According to halving in 2012 and 2016, we can expect Bitcoin make a second low (below 20000) in near future, the most possible time range is from August '23 to February '24. Before the second low coming, Bitcoin will likely reach price over 33000, therefore, be careful of being fomo and get ready with patience to buy spot.
BNC:BLX
by EthanTW
The Market Requires A 100%+ Move - Will Buyers Save Bitcoin? Here on the left, I've shown the BLX chart (Bitcoin index with the longest price history, plus its log curve) and the broken long term uptrend on the Litecoin chart on the right. Why Litecoin? Well, the 2017 bull market was characterized by astronomical gains for Bitcoin alternatives. At that time, it was about which functioned as the best currency. Litecoin and others were seen as faster, cheaper alternatives to Bitcoin. Litecoin supporters mark a bit of a cross-over between those who believe proof-of-work offers the most secure, stable network and those who prioritize cheaper transactions. Although Litecoin and other currency competitors did well in 2017, they underperformed in 2021, outclassed by coins associated with DeFi, memes, NFT's, the metaverse, and staking. This past bull run was characterized by which had the best "value" proposition and/or the best memes. Needless to say, much of this has already gone up in smoke. The issue is, the "currency" coins have not held value either, retreating all the way back to levels from the 2018-2019 bear market, while Bitcoin itself barely maintains its price above the 2017 all-time-high, between $19800 and $20100. Most people did not think this was possible a few months ago. Many were still convinced that Bitcoin would hold above $28800 and maintain a bullish trend. Litecoin has broken its long term uptrend, and arguably needs to go up a whopping 4x in value quickly in order to regain the trend. Yet, a currency does not necessarily need to appreciate in value over time. We're now in the utility phase - cryptocurrencies need to prove they have some sort of necessary use-case outside of value appreciation. Speaking of long term value - we're now at a moment where if the bottom is NOT in , there's very little historical Bitcoin trend support until nearly $9k, where I've drawn my log curve. And I've drawn it generously - I've noticed that before this crash many were drawing their curve so it cut out the COVID crash, seeing it as an anomaly. But if that was an anomaly, what is today's price action? For many participants in the crypto market, the bottom MUST be in, or at least we must be very close to it. Bitcoin likely could not experience anything greater than another 50% decline from the most recent low ($17600) before total implosion, at least according to the log curve. Some would argue that the market has already imploded, but it seems merely that the over-leveraged players are getting consumed by those with deeper pockets. Just because the smaller, riskier lenders have fallen, does not mean the market is immune to continued systemic risk. The bigger fish need to attract more buyers ASAP, and the bounce needs to be huge - I'm talking a 100% increase at minimum. So then, the question becomes: What is the probability that Bitcoin will double from current prices and get back above the $40k level in coming weeks? I believe the market needs to see something like this, in order to prove it has any legitimacy as an "asset class." Otherwise, I think this was the final bubble for Bitcoin and crypto. I mean that seriously. Either of these scenarios would work, to inject confidence back in the market, though of course the blue is more severe. As I've said in my recent posts, any kind of bounce would be perfectly reasonable from these levels - buyers, you're welcome to that $20k Bitcoin at any point....a lot of people are waiting for you *evil smirk, impersonating big exchanges*. My point is that the bounce needs some SERIOUS oooomph behind it. Rising slowly to $33-34k over the course of several weeks just wouldn't do the trick, and it would provide the opportunity for longer term moving averages to solidify themselves as resistance, and could even allow the 200 week MA to flatline and roll over to the downside. TL/DR: Bitcoin needs to show buyers have strength to take it back to $40k+ quickly, even if it's just an initial impulse, to inject some confidence and liquidity back in the market. Now, for the warning signs, and what limits the probability of a 100%+ up move. BROKEN TRENDS I'll begin by posting a chart of a seemingly random altcoin - TRX. I think this one is significant because of Justin Sun's relationship to Binance, his own algorithmic stablecoin (USDD), and its apparent refusal to break down from its distribution range. Of the coins I've followed, its the only one that has not dropped substantially, although it finally broke its own uptrend. This shows there is still significant downside risk in pockets of the market. Something I've been watching for roughly a year now is the ratio of Bitcoin against the S&P 500 index (SPX). It has now experienced an extended decline, interrupting a decade of outperformance. Based on the above chart, Bitcoin needs to triple soon (at minimum) to regain the trendline and show strength against traditional assets. My theory (as it stands) was that Bitcoin only outperformed because the market expected it to become mainstream one day, and be touted by billionaires and celebrities. Now that it has achieved fame, there is not much to speculate on anymore. Bitcoin also needs to move up substantially against Gold, in order to continue capturing the "store of value" market share. Currently, it's below the 2017 all-time high, and resting on the highs from mid-2019. Gold is dropping substantially at the moment, so this provides an opportunity for Bitcoin to show some relative strength. But does it have enough fuel to get back above 18-20x and the long term trendline? If Bitcoin's value proposition TRULY lay in its scarcity, then why did the market find the need to create thousands of other coins? Humans are greedy and expansionist in nature. Sure, having a limited supply of something and conserving it can teach humans to save and to prepare for the future. But in the end, as I've said numerous times, cryptocurrencies are not a resource. Bitcoin *could* be a commodity, but again, the market does not see it as such, which can be viewed in the simple Bitcoin Dominance metric, and implied by its decline during a period of high inflation. I find that the Bitcoin Maximalist ethos is really about preparing for disaster. But to me, the most important things one can do to prepare for disaster are: CONNECT WITH YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITIES IN PERSON, develop a valuable skill or trade, and manage your risk. Interpersonal trust is extremely important. This is how movements and change occur, not by building a hypothetical simulation of trust through algorithms on the Internet. In addition, BACK TO LITECOIN - this thing has now dropped all the way back to its accumulation range from the previous bear market, showing that the last halving did nothing to increase the long term price floor for the asset. Will the same happen to Bitcoin? Litecoin appears to be in danger of heading back to somewhere below $10, should it not QUADRUPLE in the coming weeks. What does this all mean to the buyer? This means it's time to position oneself relative to risk tolerance. If you feel there is even a slight probability crypto will be saved by the big buyers, then now seems a decent time to allocate whatever percentage of your liquid capital to this crazy market and just hope for the best. For me at the moment, that's a little under 5%. For some, 5% might be a lot, for others, not so much. The way I see it - if I'm going to increase my exposure back to something like 10%, that's risking 10% for the potential to double my entire capital, since many altcoin projects could rebound 10x from here. That's my absurd logic, and is clearly only gambling. So, in my trading, I'm still considering putting a little bit back into the market near current levels. Yet, something holds me back - I think it's that my belief in the space has waned over the last couple years and I don't see much meaning in buying anything for the long term at this point. I'd rather focus my resources elsewhere. Nevertheless, I continue to post on here, cataloguing my ever-evolving thoughts on the market, and the fascinating history of humankind. This article represents the opinion of the author, and is not meant as financial advice. It is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Please consult with a professional financial advisor before making significant financial decisions. -Victor Cobra
BNC:BLXShort
by VictorCobra
16
New Bull Run Is Gonna Start But Till When?I have split EMA 50/200 Golden Cross and Death Cross in 3D chart. As we see we have bar/accumulation zone then we have bull run, for many people bull run means ATH but I don't think like this, it is a long term trend. Trend will start soon even covid black swan couldn't make it death cross so this trend is %100 till now. From 21.07.2023 our golden cross will start (hope so) and we will forward, first we should move at least %50 upside, correction. Retest for 200 EMA, probably will be somehere 30K then another steps up to upside. Adoptation, instutions, goverments, metaverse, de-fi 2.0, AI, CBDC count as many things for your long term plans. Till 2026 we have death cross time period so bull run might finish end of 2025 or early 2026. So are you still afraid that Bitcoin gonna 10K? There will many times to scared but not right now, please don't fomo in, don't all in. Crypto is risky asset. Have a nice day, all of gonna be super rich!
BNC:BLXLong
by kargaa
Cycle Roadmap for Bitcoin | Mendenmein Capital OCWhat a lovely Monday morning! In my years as an analyst, I really learned to enjoy Monday mornings, and I want to present you something special on this fabulous morning! In the past weeks I designed this new cycle model which should help investors understand the past cycles of bitcoin, how they function, and it allows me to make assumptions on how the future will play out. First, I want to point out that some counts may be confusing for traders who are used to logarithmic counts. As is stated in the past, I think that only focusing on logarithmic wave movements is foolish, because you always need to look at the waves from a “price” scale too. Remember how the famous “Stock to Flow” Model was partially wrong about the price goals of the last bull market, the praised rainbow chart needed to be redrawn because it FAILED and how famous investors Plan_Bitcoin was wrong about bitcoin hitting 100K this cycle? They all have something in common… They all focus solely on logarithmic scales and the more bitcoin extends on the price scale (not logarithmic!) the more these models will continue to fail! So, regarding the chart, I want to give you all some additional information. The last three Cycle Highs were labeled as “Cycle Top X” and the bottom of the bear markets were labeled as “Cycle Bottom X”. We were lucky to enjoy three separate cycles in bitcoin, however bitcoins history from mere cents to 20$ is not accounted for. In this time no halving occurred and the historic timeframe doesn’t allow me to conclude a whole cycle from it. The bull markets in all Cycles are summarized in two separate phases. The “Cycle Consolidation” (marked in orange) phase highlights the time when bitcoin finally bottomed out , but didn’t experienced the halving event yet. After the halving, the “Cycle Bullrun” starts in which bitcoin establishes a parabolic rally and finally tops at a certain point. The duration of these different phases are mostly the same in every cycle, but sometimes they go on longer or shorter than expected. The important thing for investors right now is, that we estimate that bitcoin found its final bottom at exactly the 22nd of November 2022. Since then, we gradually established higher high’s, therefore we expect that the orange phase of a “Price Consolidation” has started . We estimate that bitcoin will reach 35K or even 40k before the halving next year, currently this event is projected to happen on 24th of April 2024. The whole “Price Consolidation” is estimated to dominate the market for 518 days, and after that the “Cycle Bullrun” should account for 410 days. I remain very bullish on bitcoin’s future, and my price target range of at least 120’000$ to 180’000$ is still valid. However, we will have a long way to go until there, and bitcoin has a lot of work to do! Below can be seen our most recent Elliot wave count for bitcoin, currently we have reason to believe that the price is inside a wave (iii) which should push us above 35’000$ in the next weeks. I wrote many articles about this chart, so I won’t go into further detail here. If you should face problems with the scaling of this chart, the normal scaled chart can be seen below. Please note that we are already invested in Bitcoin since the 15th of June 2022, back then we announced our first positions here on tradingview. Long Bitcoin (BTCUSD) AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 20’714.20$ STOP-LOSS: NONE LONGTERM TARET: +120’000$
BNC:BLXLong
by Mendenmein-Capital
Bitcoin price action (20W SMA/21W EMA support band)I’ve been playing around with my BLX chart to see if I can get all the useful information about BTC price action on one screen. This is all on the weekly timeframe. The green/red band you see is the 20W SMA/21W EMA support band. I know some people tend to focus on the 20W SMA exclusively however adding the 21W EMA gives a band that allows for those wicks down and it gives a little more psychological assurance (for me anyway). The yellow line is the 200W SMA. Notice the confluence in this last move between all three! The blue line at the bottom is BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) with a couple of dotted EMAS (21/100) to show whether Bitcoin is in a dominant streak or not. It is currently. This is why I’m not in alts yet. Anyway… stand back and let it hit you. I think it’s quite useful personally! Initial idea came from here:
BNC:BLX
by mikemindel
Unbelievable linear drop When wave 2 is about time wave 4 is about depth and vice versa, this is likely to happen Wave 2 corrected 38 percent of wave 1 and 50 percent of wave 3 is 370$, it is not my fault that this number is on the 0.5 level I got no road map and i just wait for development of waves, there is a long way to go ... I will be cautious about my indications when the price is on the 0.38 of the third wave The logic is simple but unbelievable If you know books about golden mean and elliot wave then introduce me Patience is virtue of kings
BNC:BLXLong
by UnknownUnicorn10828932
1
Andrews' Pitchforks are FunHere's an example of a pitchfork drawn on the 2 weekly BNC:BLX chart, measured from the March 2020 low to the Nov 2021 high and completed at the Nov 2022 low, and then extended in direction and levels (up to 9 levels can be added). The chart above makes for a solid example of how pitchforks can be used to derive a trend or channel and find solid support and resistance levels within it. They are also just fun to work with! There are several types of pitchforks which can be tested until you've found one that works best for your chart. They are called Andrews' Pitchforks because they were originally developed by Alan Andrews, with several derivatives created by modifying calculation for the placement of the pitchfork's handle (the slope of its median line): Normal Pitchfork - Andrews' original pitchfork tool. Schiff Pitchfork - moves start of the handle line halfway to the base of the channel. Modified Schiff Pitchfork - handle start is adjusted by a distance equal to half the difference between price values of its first two points (first low and high, or first high and low) of three. Inside Pitchfork - handle adjusted to half of the vertical & half of the horizontal distance between the first two points of three. In the example above, I chose a Modified Schiff Pitchfork , and then identified 3 points of consecutive highs and lows. In this case: low -> high -> low. You can choose to do the opposite of this and start from high -> low -> high, typically your first point should represent the beginning of a new trend. Play around with trying this in different timeframes, and also try editing / adding / removing levels. You can try basic levels at increments of 25% or by utilizing classic Fibonacci levels (or both, as shown above). Pitchforks are a type of Fibonacci tool, so I like using classic Fib levels. You could just use the Fibonacci Channel tool and get a similar result. But, the nice thing about utilizing a pitchfork is that it can help you identify a channel that may not be immediately obvious. Here is another example of using a Modified Schiff Pitchfork to derive trends on a popular altcoin, BINANCE:HBARUSD : Thanks for reading, I hope this was helpful to you. I learned more about pitchforks myself while working on this, and encourage others to do the same!
BNC:BLXEducation
by dudebruhwhoa
BTC Comparing Last Cycle with Current cycle.Everything has to come to and end, sometime. We have been bullish for god knows how long; weeks, months. Ever since the start of the year we've seen nothing but small dips and continued uptrend, the hated rally. Which brings out the question, how long can this continue? Currently, we're at the 7th month mark and we've erased majority of the down moves that have come about due to unfortunate FUD/ events. There is still 10 more months before the halving happens, meaning there's plenty of time for the price to go up and down and up and down. NB! for this chart we consider the FEB 2020 crash as a black swan event, that doesn't/won't affect the chart. The similarities of '18 and '21 are astounding, the respect for certain S/R levels are present. Bringing us to the dreaded question, can we use Last cycles moves to "predict" current cycles future moves. I'm not going to go in to too much detail, as the chart speaks for itself. Take note that every move has its own reasoning and is either exacerbated to the upside and/or the downside. E.g. The First top in 2021, was prime for a pullback for a continuation, but the effects of Covid exacerbated the dump and forced the market to enter a period of consolidation, before the next move up, which on it's own was also fueled by the strengthening of the economy pushing it to a new and a final high. To sum up: I don't think we are done yet with the pump on the High Time frame. and we are going to take out the previous high around the ~32.4k to trap late longers, people expecting the continuation of the bull to get some liquidity and then push downwards to create a macro low of 2023 and then we will set our eyes for the new bull cycle. Extras: 1. CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH markets are very illiquid and Alts even more so. Meaning while BTC might not make a new low, I expect many of the alts to do so. I am looking for a handful of ALTS ( UPCOM:FTM , CRYPTOCAP:SOL ,etc) have expectations new lows in 2023. At worst case scenario, I expect them to at the least test their previous low. 2. There is a possibility of Capitulation event to clear out all of the levered longs sub 22.5k. I do not know how deep the wick would go here, but I wouldn't put ~20k out of the question before we push upwards Always remember ( I certainly sometimes forget): The market is a place of PVP, for someone to make money, someone has to lose. This brings me to my last point. 3. ETF's, The large funds that are filing for their BTC ETF's are not stupid and they didn't make their money from blind luck (unlike most cryptobro funds that are now busted). Even after the approval of the ETF's the funds will make certain to not enter a directional risk and make certain they are Delta Neutral (buy spot, short perps), which on it's own should have little to no effect on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price, the pump will come from everyone buying the news of the approval all the while Funds that just got approved will start opening new Shorts marking the local top. These funds need people to buy their product to make maximum gains.
BNC:BLX
by MashaH2
#Bitcoin - Which path will it take?I looked back at the past two bull cycles for Bitcoin and noticed that it took about 1096 days for price to breach the previous 2M closing cycle high, and then about 365 days from then to reach the next top. If it follows this same timing, then we would expect price to breach $70k sometime around November of 2024, and then make a new cycle top toward the end of 2025. If you were around during the last bull run, everyone kept talking about a Bitcoin ETF and how it was about to happen, which helped fuel the last bull run. But then it didn't, which could have been part of the reason why the last bull run fell short of may peoples expectations. If a spot ETF does get approved, I wouldn't be surprised to see it fuel a speculative bubble only to mark the top near the launch date. The timing also lines up with the average time it takes for an ETF to get approved which is 221 days. Blackrock filed on June 15, 2023 so adding 221 days puts us at January 22, 2024. We should find out shortly (over the next couple of weeks) whether Bitcoin price calms down, consolidates more around $30k, and takes the longer more gradual bull run path, but if we see it mark up to around FWB:36K soon, then I will assume it is taking the shorter path to a new top sometime end of 2023, early 2024. We will see!
BNC:BLX
by theeverythingbubble
#Bitcoin Roadmap 2023-2025Hello all, some very influential analysts saying that we will reach an all time high in 2023. Others saying we will see a massive dump to new lows under $15.5k. Who will be right? Time will tell. But looking back at previous bull runs we see something interesting... Bitcoin tends to run off the lows to the 2M closing price, in this case that is just over $61k, and then consolidate until after the halving, and then blows its top in a speculative bubble. I think that is what is likely to happen this time around as well. Run to $60k region getting everyone bullish, many will buy in with the hype, and then it dumps with a long correction/consolidation until it has refueled and is ready for the final blow of top. We will see I guess!
BNC:BLX
by theeverythingbubble
Crypto fear and greed & the bull market support!Hi fellow traders and investors. If your still on the fence about the market, I'm not sure why, but, I'm about to show we are in a full fledged bull market even if it doesn't feel so to you. This is the crypto markets fear and greed indicator. It came out in early 2018 and in my opinion is very accurate. It's based on human psychology and the emotions fear and greed. The MOST important levels on this chart is the 45 to 50 level and even more specifically , the 47-48 area. This 47-48 area is the support and resistance level for crypto since this indicators inception. When crypto is in a bull market it will sit above and it will serve a s resistance in the bear market like we see in the in the chart before the crypto crash of 2022. We can notice, before the ultimate fall in June of 22 that it broke above this level ever so slightly but, could not hold. During the bear market greed only reached this level once and was faced with a stiff rejection. However as we can see after this rejection the greed stayed higher even in the FTX fear of November. Although prices fell lower and there was fear everywhere the story was a little different, smart money got greedy. This lead to the initial thrust in January, it then retested the uptrend in the mid March dip before bursting through out of the bear market. Now, I'm also looking into time frames as well, although nothing is confirmed yet. 55 days cycles of movement or push before a change in pattern, but, it's too early to tell. Although, I think it could be worth looking into. The important thing here is the 47-48 area, I do believe going forward this area will hold while we are in a bull market. A substantial break especially if not followed by a quick recovery like in mid March could be a spell for disaster. Eventually it will get to extreme greed, this is where you would want to take profits. However it can stay at extreme greed for weeks at a time. Once it gets there we will have another look at it and asses it further. If you find this informative or interesting, please and follow for future content. Kind regards WeAreSat0shi
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
6