Cloud is bullish AFon the weekly we have a huge edge to edge cloud trading setting up as well as a super bullish C-clamp forming, this is just a beautiful bottom signal. These things take time to form so you can see the intention of smart money.
BLX trade ideas
As DXY Moves Down / BTC will Move UpDXY has begun seeing some losses on news of lower than expected inflation and the Fed's decision to skip an interest rate hike as a result of that news. Should it continue down, BTC will begin to move back up until otherwise.
A pathetic fake, that what's you areA pathetic fake, that's what you are! That's right, Bitcoin brother.
You're going down, and you don't even have to hide it.
We see it though. Same old moves. Same fake disguise.
No way. Don't be fooled, be on your guard!
Crypto fear and greed & the bull market support!Hi fellow traders and investors.
If your still on the fence about the market, I'm not sure why, but, I'm about to show we are in a full fledged bull market even if it doesn't feel so to you.
This is the crypto markets fear and greed indicator. It came out in early 2018 and in my opinion is very accurate. It's based on human psychology and the emotions fear and greed.
The MOST important levels on this chart is the 45 to 50 level and even more specifically , the 47-48 area. This 47-48 area is the support and resistance level for crypto since this indicators inception. When crypto is in a bull market it will sit above and it will serve a s resistance in the bear market like we see in the in the chart before the crypto crash of 2022. We can notice, before the ultimate fall in June of 22 that it broke above this level ever so slightly but, could not hold. During the bear market greed only reached this level once and was faced with a stiff rejection. However as we can see after this rejection the greed stayed higher even in the FTX fear of November. Although prices fell lower and there was fear everywhere the story was a little different, smart money got greedy. This lead to the initial thrust in January, it then retested the uptrend in the mid March dip before bursting through out of the bear market.
Now, I'm also looking into time frames as well, although nothing is confirmed yet. 55 days cycles of movement or push before a change in pattern, but, it's too early to tell. Although, I think it could be worth looking into.
The important thing here is the 47-48 area, I do believe going forward this area will hold while we are in a bull market. A substantial break especially if not followed by a quick recovery like in mid March could be a spell for disaster. Eventually it will get to extreme greed, this is where you would want to take profits. However it can stay at extreme greed for weeks at a time. Once it gets there we will have another look at it and asses it further.
If you find this informative or interesting, please and follow for future content.
Kind regards
WeAreSat0shi
Observing Bitcoin's UptrendsEach time Bitcoin has entered an uptrend, it eventually reaches a new ATH and then loses the uptrend about a year or so later, and the begins a new and weaker uptrend.
Its first uptrend was lost about 2-3 months following its ATH, and the 2nd and 3rd ATH failed to re-test the bottom of that trend.
When the 2nd uptrend was lost, the next ATH perfectly re-tested the bottom of that trend before dropping and ultimately losing it.
*** This time is not like the others ***
Within approx 5 months of losing the red uptrend shown above (its 3rd uptrend), Bitcoin reclaimed it for another 5 months or so.
Then it lost it a second time; eventually testing the bottom of the current or 4th uptrend during the March 2020 black-swan event and briefly wicking below it.
Following the black-swan, Bitcoin moved up to reclaim the red uptrend a second time; in a little under a year. Again, remaining above it for a little over 4 months.
After two attempts to reclaim the 3rd uptrend, it fell back below, re-testing the bottom of it, and then moving back down to our present uptrend.
What is also different this time, is that it has held the current uptrend twice after having attempted to reclaim the previous one.
It ha also held the current uptrend for longer than any previous - for a little over 4.5 years. The previous two were held for a little over 3 years.
Will we see one last weaker push towards the bottom of the red trendline before finally losing the current one?
Good or bad? Bitcoin ETF BlackRock While the crypto market is all green, amid the news about the BlackRock ETF, I decided to write a post about it.
On December 15, two, the largest US company CME Group launched Bitcoin futures.
CME is the only one who provides the opportunity to trade bitcoin futures in the United States and they are the first to enter the area of derivatives instrument for the cryptocurrency market.
A week ago, BlackRock applied for approval of the Bitcoin ETF.
BlackRock is an American international investment company headquartered in New York. One of the largest investment companies in the world and the largest in the world in terms of assets under management. As of the end of 2022, assets under management were $8.59 trillion.
The probability of this application being approved by Blackrock is quite high
Relying on historical data on SEC decisions regarding Blackrock's various ETF applications.
BlackRock has an astounding success rate: 575 applications approved versus just one rejected.
However, not everyone shares such a quick optimism. The fact is that in addition to the positive statistics on the SEC's approval of applications for various ETFs by Blackrock, there are also negative statistics on how many other applications just for bitcoin-ETFs the SEC rejected.
The first attempts to register a Bitcoin ETF were made back in 2014 by the Winklevoss twin brothers. Since then, there have been more than 30 attempts to create a spot exchange-traded fund for bitcoin, but all applications have faced opposition from regulators, who cited market problems and a lack of investor protection.
Among those rejected :
Vaneck, one of the world's leading asset management companies. In March of this year, the company received its third consecutive rejection from the SEC to launch a spot ETF on bitcoin. SEC refusals to launch such investment products always report that there is no regulated cryptocurrency market, which means companies, including VanEck, simply "do not have joint oversight agreements with a regulated spot market of significant size for bitcoin trading."
ARK is the investment firm of well-known investor Katie Wood. In April of this year, Ark Invest, along with Swiss company 21Shares, again attempted to coordinate a spot exchange-traded bitcoin fund with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. They already have two failed attempts under their belt.
Grayscale, a company that manages cryptocurrency trusts and other investment products. The company is suing the SEC over its refusal to convert its own fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). GBTC is now the best-known solution for buying bitcoin. However, shares of this fund are not allowed to trade on the first-tier stock exchanges, with Grayscale charging a management fee of about 2% per year, while traditional ETFs have a fee of 0.5%. Last year, the SEC approved a cryptocurrency ETF, but only for futures markets. It's a much more complex and expensive product for investors.
"Another theory is that BlackRock may be aware that the SEC may lose the Grayscale case, and is going to play ahead to be prepared for the case to be lost and then suddenly open the way for a bitcoin ETF."
Assuming the answer is yes, what happens afterwards?
I interpret this news positively in the long run, because new big money will come to the cryptocurrency industry, and a lot of new things await us.
BUT
I think like last time, there will be another good entry point into the market formed for the big players. Thereby we may see the very corrective movement till September, November, and in these dates there will be already dispersed information about future halving, etc. and then there will be a real bull run first of all for Bitcoin.
Read about where I expect the bottom of the correction in this post
Best regards EXCAVO
The Bitcoin Halving Cycle 2024The occurrence of a Bitcoin halving event refers to a significant reduction, usually every four years, in the reward granted to Bitcoin miners. Historical data and the Bitcoin price chart reveal distinct patterns of how the halving event impacts the value of Bitcoin, leading to the formation of what is known as the Bitcoin halving cycle.
The Bitcoin Halving Cycle is visually represented in the chart above, which showcases a log-scale weekly candlestick chart depicting the price of Bitcoin. This chart highlights the consistent pattern of the three distinct phases, namely the bull market, bear market, stagnation/recovery period or range and accumulation phase, that occur within each cycle.
Within the depicted chart, different coloured boxes symbolise specific market phases. The light green box signifies the bull market, while the red box represents the bear market. The yellow box indicates the recovery phase. Inside the yellow box, three additional boxes are displayed. The blue box represents the initial accumulation stage following the bear market. The lime green box signifies a period of expansion, and the orange box represents a subsequent ranging period, which can be viewed as a second stage of accumulation.
Analysing the Bitcoin price chart, we can observe that a typical Bitcoin halving cycle on average unfolds as follows: a one and half year bull market, followed by a one-year bear market, and finally a one and half year period of stagnation (range and accumulation).
Bitcoin is currently in its fourth halving cycle, and can be considered in the ranging and accumulation cycle. During these stages of the cycle in Bitcoin's history, price has reached its 0.786 fibonacci retracement at least once when measuring this from the peak of the bull market stage to the trough of the Bear cycle. (blue horizontal line)
If history rhymes, Bitcoins's price has the potential to reach $52,000 USD from now or until the next halving date.
BTC - Long TermBy end of 2027 Bitcoin will have marketcap of 75 Trillion Dollars, charts don't lie, economists and finance people do!.
The Start of a RunCrypto has become mellow. Blowoff tops and massive V-shaped recoveries are not common anymore. Cycles are also much more tightly coupled with stonks since hedge funds and banks have crypto desks with quants smoothing out the market. You could say Bitcoin is whipped now.
I decided to mark a breakdown from here to the low 20ks range because that's the most realistic things to expect. It may not be a full breakdown over the next week, but the reality is that further upside just doesn't fit the market structure. Charts tell a story and a pump does not follow. I believe that marking some support levels over the rest of the year is, in fact, the better alternative that assume BTC won't go to zero or stagnate. That would be a story told by dropping under 17k.
Let's not forget that our lives still suck. Inflation is not quite going away, and the job market hasn't recovered across society. The Russian-Ukrainian War is still not resolved. Even if the Fed has skipped tomorrow's, at least two more hikes are coming later on. QE needs to be reversed for this charade to continue.
Overall, this is how I see the story playing out. Prices are not just levels. I'm not super confident about this narrative this time around, but nothing else fits better!
Steady lads... ignore the noiseHi All
The SEC move is "good".
One final move to separate good from bad..
To remove the "bad" actors.
Eventually... If this is real, it will prevail..
Read is #BITCOIN
What do you think?
Thnx
Jad
BTC/USDTIf StochRSI on weekly will go under 20 level and:
1. The price will stay above aprox. 25k level
2. StochRSI (weekly) will close with red line on one week above 20 level
then
there are great chances that BTC can continue the rally this year.
Happy trading!
Potential for a Pull-back as it Correlates with DXYIf you've seen my other posts about this - Bitcoin has clear negative correlation with DXY.
You could pull up the Correlation Coefficient indicator and make an argument that it correlates positively just as often as it does negatively, but when you compare the charts with each other, nearly every peak corresponds with a valley vs. the other and vice versa. They are typically offset by some period of time if not at the same time.
Also, try setting CC length to 35 and it provides a more clear picture of its long-term correlation.
Presently, Bitcoin looks like an inverse head and shoulders re-testing its neckline. Meanwhile, DXY looks like a head and shoulders with a pullback that hasn't quite reached the highs of its right shoulder.
Also, each shoulder and head of both head and shoulders have eventually corresponded with each other, in opposite directions, and Bitcoin has yet to have made a pullback.
However, it may skip the pullback altogether should DXY continue down and move back below ~98-101.
Or, DXY could instead move up above ~105-106 leading to pattern failure on both, and a strong uptrend on DXY / strong downtrend on BTC.
Let's see what happens next!
Please see my related posts below in the links to related ideas.
Thanks for reading!
The panpanXBT Bitcoin risk IndicatorHi Fellow Traders and Investors,
Today, I want to look into this brand new hot off the presses indicator, THE BITCOIN RISK. The focus of this indicator is the risk levels of bitcoin in real time.
It's color coded and fairly straight forward and simple. it's best use is for long term investors not so much for day trading. It can be coupled with other indicators to make confluence and confirmation. for example the RSI and this indicator are very powerful when coupled together from what I have seen. As we can see it is still very early in the bull run and still a very good time to be making purchases. How accurate this indicator will be going forward? Unfortunately, only time will tell, as I'm fairly sure it's been retro fit in some way to work.
I have no affiliation with the creator and have no personal gain. I found this indicator, was granted use of it and found it useful, so, I am passing it along. If you are interested in it, you have to get a hold of the creator. Down below is an overview in the words of the creator.
Here is a quick explanation from the creator himself...
Here's a quick overview of what the model is based on and how it can provide value:
"The panpanXBT Bitcoin Risk Metric is powered by regressing 'fair value' data. The errors are adjusted to account for diminishing returns using a fitted exponential curve. The result is a channel that Bitcoin price has historically bounced between.
Users can quickly identify periods of extreme under and overvaluation, which could present great investing opportunities."
BTC 2023 Price Analysis, a Sideways Outlook, Consistent PatternsBITCOIN BNC:BLX BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Hello Traders,
Based on historical trends, #BTC is expected to experience a sideways market in 2023. Patterns from previous halving years and bear market capitulation highlight consistent characteristics. Notably, end-of-year prices consistently double from the beginning-of-year levels. This suggests #BTC will likely hover around the 30k price level throughout 2023, despite potential fluctuations of 20k or 40k.
Halving Year Preceding Period:
One year before the halving event, BTC exhibits price stability, indicating a consistent level in 2023.
Bear Market Capitulation:
Bear market capitulation historically occurs in December, marking a significant low point before potential reversals or consolidation.
Sideways Years:
Years 2015, 2019, and 2023 demonstrate sideways price movement, lacking significant upward or downward momentum.
Similarities and Patterns:
Bounced from Electricity Cost Level:
BTC tends to bounce from the electricity cost level, indicating price rebound near mining costs.
End-of-Year Price Level Doubling:
End-of-year prices consistently double the beginning-of-year levels, reflecting a recurring trend of price appreciation.
#BTC is expected to have a sideways year in 2023, with stability around the 30k price level. Consistent patterns of bear market capitulation, sideways years, and doubling end-of-year prices support this outlook. Traders should anticipate fluctuations but expect BTC to end the year near 30k.
At the time to charting this, #BITCOIN was trading 27124
will #BITCOIN make it or break it ?
Lets see how Time and Price Action unfolds Patters,
Always DYOR ✔️
Stay Focused, Calm and Composed,
It is a journey that requires dedication and perseverance,
managing emotions, and staying adaptable.
Trade well my friends,
Stay SAFU, and Let that Sink in 😉
Is Bitcoin Repeating Summer of 2021-22?What if we're just repeating a fractal of Bitcoin's summer 2021-22 market behavior?
This would make a lot of sense if negative correlation with DXY continues and the dollar index moves back up to its recent highs or higher:
Would also expect this to occur if Gold moves down from here:
If it did do this, it would also continue remaining within this channel:
Good luck!
Bitcoin Halving AnalysisBitcoin Halving is the supply reduction event which occurs every 210,000 Blocks until all 21 Million coins are mined. At genesis, there were 50 Bitcoins minted each block. Each block takes 10 minutes hence it would take approximately 4 years to mine 210,000 blocks.
First Halving occurred on November 28, 2012, at block height of 210,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 25 BTC.
On this day the price was $12.24. On November 25, 2013 price reached $1177.19 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 9120% for a period of one year.
Second Halving occurred on July 9, 2016, at block height of 420,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 12.5 BTC.
On this day the price was $649.22. On December 17, 2017 price reached $19,764.51 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 2944% for a period of one and half years.
Third Halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at block height of 630,000. Afterward Block reward changed to 6.25 BTC.
On this day the price was $8580.84. On November 10, 2021 price reached $68,944.62 which became the highest price point before the next halving. So this reflects a price change of 702% for a period of one and half years
Fourth Halving will occur in April or May, 2024, at block height of 840,000. Afterward Block reward will change to 3.125 BTC.
If the current pattern continues, the next highest price point will occur in the 2025 4th Quarter.
Bitcoin's roadmap to $300,000 | 2023 to 2025Once the $40,000 ceiling is breached in Q4 2023, it will be a straight road to $100,000 within 6 to 10 months.
The bitcoin halving of April 2024 will come and go.
A major correction will only be after a top of $100K to $150K around mid-to late 2024.
This will be followed by a mini-bear market / correction to the previous ATH of $60Ks.
This correction won't last longer than a year, ending with a push into the high $200,000s or even touching $333,333.33 by the end of 2025.
Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution
Bitcoin Key LevelIn my honest opinion the next key level to break is a close above $29,700 to confirm we are in the next bull run ~ the macro "Descending Broadening Wedge" bound by the blue diagonals of which the estimate is to break the upper diagonal!
Bulkowski's Descending Broadening Wedge :-
thepatternsite.com
The secrete trend line no one will show you and the buy signalsJust a quick look here.
Another trend line that the BTC price broke through with that big candle in March. BTC first broke through MA Pi bottom resistance kin January then held it as support. Look at when it happened... Literally right after it crossed!!! It is now playing with the top of WHITE trend line. I believe it will continue to do so for a period of time. This is a similar trend line BTC formed in 2015 of of it's lows back then.
Pi Cycle bottom being held as support. BUY
The MZ BTC Oscillator is dark green making confluence for the BUY.
Steve's NVT HV. This one is 100% accurate. When the RED AND WHITE LINE (volatility) goes below the YELLOW line and comes back up and is RED a move is to follow in the upward direction. If it's WHITE then it will correct. The color before entering is insignificant to the confirmation signal. NVT coming up RED Confirms the BUY!
There is a move brewing and it smells like a pump.
Kind Regards
WeAreSat0shi
Elliot wave nearing 4/5Obviously the debt ceiling was going to be expanded since the Americans will not give up their "credibility" and the world reserve currency Expect weekly to close around $27.250
Wednesday
- French, Italian, and German inflation YOY
- Japanese Consumer confidence
Thursday
- Inflation and unemployment rate eurozone YOY
- US ISM manufacturing PMI
Friday
- US Unemploymentrate and non-farm payrolls
Looks reasonable to retest the former range when taking the Elliot Wave into account, $25.200 range top June 2022 – March 2023 has a lot of liquidity. However I am bullish from here
Target for June would be approximately around $35
Possibility of catastrophic declineIf you check the 6-month candlestick chart, all candlesticks have formed lower tails. However, lower tails are not confirmed for the bar currently in progress. It is possible to go see the bottom tail before the next candlestick is made.
