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Predicting Bitcoin tops and bottoms using halving dates.I thought I will share with you what I found out. Apparently by measuring time from the halving you can more or less guess the bitcoin tops and bottoms and/or correction or dead cat bounce to safely sell what you got. This is not going to show you perfectly where to sell and where to buy but it is not for that, this is to help long term traders when to scale in and scale out of the market, regardless of the price. It can be hard, as you know everyone at the top screams for higher targets and at the bottom for lower. I hope this will help you out. And feel free to do a different measure of your own, Just put halving dates and start from there. Thanks!
BNC:BLXLong
by Pro2Drive
1
Bitcoin next 4 year cycle top October 2025 $BTCBNC:BLX Both the current bear market top to bottom and previous bear market is within the same timeframe within a 2 week candle. Both the last 2 bull markets lasted the same time within 2 weeks. Nearly eactly 50% through each bull market was the top of an automatic rally (Wyckoff AR) or key pivot RH3. This would put the top of the next automatic rally at May 2024 and the end of the bull market at Mid Oct 2025 4 year cycle
BNC:BLXLong
by Isosceles_Trade
1
January BTC Analysis is playing out nicely so far for bulls. If this monthly can close above the 27k handle, it will signal a very strong position for bulls. If you are unaware of how important January price action is, check out this nifty chart I made. Also listen to the streams we did at the beginning of February to hear some rants about it. The pink arrow is showing the current upside piercing attempt. The green arrows show the previous instances. The tables on the bottom show performance of all piercings, up and down. We are at the cusp of flipping into a bullish regime for crypto. Lets keep that popcorn out and see if they can confirm it on the highest of time frames. Happy trading!
BNC:BLXLong
by nonoiz
Rule No1. Law of Rythm $777 "Understanding the Law of Rhythm in trading means recognizing the natural ebb and flow of the markets. By adapting to the different cycles, traders can make more informed decisions and increase their chances of success. It's not just only about 'what goes up must come down' - it's about timing and strategy. #TradingTips #MarketCycles" The Law of Rhythm is a trading law that states that the market moves in a rhythmic pattern, alternating between periods of expansion and contraction. This law suggests that markets, just like nature, have a natural ebb and flow. According to the Law of Rhythm, traders should pay close attention to the current market cycle and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. This means that traders should be aware of the different stages of the market, such as the accumulation phase, markup phase, distribution phase, and markdown phase. By understanding the Law of Rhythm and the various stages of the market, traders can make more informed trading decisions. For example, during the accumulation phase, traders may want to look for oversold securities that are likely to increase in value during the markup phase. Similarly, during the distribution phase, traders may want to consider short-selling overbought securities that are likely to decline in value during the markdown phase. Overall, the Law of Rhythm emphasizes the importance of understanding the natural cycles of the market and using this knowledge to make more profitable trades. In a Blackswan Event, I expect Bitcoin $ 777
BNC:BLXLong
by skylordzx
💲BITCOIN💲 And its power of multiplication in a bull market!Hi guys, today I'm going to bring here some of my BITCOIN reading from a long-term perspective! To be clearer with friends, we will only use an indicator called TSI = (True Strength Index) And the Price of the asset illustrated by a bar chart. See that whenever the price manages to have enough strength to make the TSI cross upwards, we have the beginning of a bull market. It is clear that we have a lot of bad news in the market, and a lot of fear as well, but I must remember that good news reflects an already high price. This bullish crossover is clear as daylight here and serves as a wake-up call for bears. The more you deny a possible Bull Market, the further behind you will be! In previous studies we also commented on how the Fibonacci time cycle, when plotted between each BTC miners reward break, indicated a buy window from the 0.618 point, these points were successful in the last bull cycles. Knowing this, we have strong indications that the price may have marked a relevant bottom to start the next bull run 🚀. So look at the power of multiplication that BTC has even without leverage, it's something amazing! BTC in these last crossings would manage to multiply its capital by more than 230x to the peak of 2013, by more than 65x by the peak of 2017, and by more than 14x by the peak of 2021. The question that remains is how many times do you think BTC will multiply now? Leave your opinion here in the comments! Thank you for reading and I hope I have contributed, good trades! Att: Leandro Sander. 🔴Disclaimer: The comments above reflect solely and exclusively my opinion, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Just a series of published studies, so that with the community we can discuss tactics and operational techniques.
BNC:BLXLong
by leandrosander_
Why would this time be different?The pattern is simple: 1. Top 2. Bear trend 3. Bullish pattern reversal breakout strongly 4. Retest (2015) or not (2019) 5. Consolidation 6. Echo Rally to 0.5 Fib 7. Decline and prepare for the base for the next halvening Why would this time be different whilst we are at the consolidation phase in this cycle. Worst case scnenario restest of the base. I previously said 36k is a magnet. It is. That's the target of the iC&H that confirmed. Now 42k is also a magnet.
BNC:BLXLong
by hassou7
3
The 30/120 EMA Bitcoin weekly chartTake a look at the chart. This is using my own indicator that combines 2 EMA and gives it the best time to buy Bitcoin between the Green and Red Vertical lines as the 30 EMA crossed with the 120 EMA. 30 EMA Red 120 EMA GREEN What can data can we gather from this chart: 1# Once the price is above the 120 EMA (GREEN) BITCOIN goes on a major Rally 2# The 30 EMA crossing beneath the 120 EMA marks the bottom for the cycle 3# Between the 2 crosses is the best time in the cycle to buy Bitcoin and take leverage This indicator shows that the bottom has been reached and from now on Bitcoin will a bull run. One thing we have to consider is that we usually test the 120 EMA (Green ) for a month before we break above it with a significant pump.
BNC:BLXLong
by Daimonik
Technical History on the Bitcoin Monthly chartReflecting on the history of Bitcoin, I've observed that there have only been a few instances when the price dipped below the 55 exponential moving average (EMA) on the monthly timeframe. I remember back in January 2015, there was a tiny wick below the 55 EMA. Then, in January 2019, we experienced our first candle close below it. Fast forward to July 2022, and we began to see several consecutive monthly closes below the 55 EMA, even before the FTX collapse. After months of anticipation, I've noticed that Bitcoin has finally pushed above the 55 EMA for the first time in several months. This followed a whole month of consolidation right below it. Additionally, Bitcoin has managed to push above the 21 EMA, after falling below it in April 2022 – almost exactly a year ago when we lost that crucial moving average. As I dug deeper into the data, I noticed that in December, the monthly RSI (Relative Strength Index) was essentially at its lowest point ever. From a technical perspective, this implies that since the rebound, we've started to see some hidden bullish divergence forming. I've maintained a bullish outlook on crypto since December, and everything I'm seeing now only strengthens my case. While I still believe that we may experience a decent pullback in the coming month, I remain optimistic that the overall trend will continue to be bullish. The only caveat would be if Bitcoin loses the 21 EMA, as it would signify an extremely bearish scenario if we were to close a monthly candle below the 55 EMA. Currently, the 55 EMA stands at around $23,300 or so. Closing below the 55EMA would be worst case scenario for Bitcoin bulls for the time being.
BNC:BLXLong
by bitdoctor
Bitcoin No Limits - World Takeover Don't Trust The MarketcapHello this is my first post for the future and some bitcoin projections I have been running during the bear market, everyone see it from my view and why this is a pretty historic event happening before our eyes. Biggest financial event in human history to be exact. . not just our lives. 2025 $855,775 Medium | Market cap ($17,971,275,000,000 based on 21m supply) $17.971 trillion $2,038,869 Parabolic | Market cap ($42,816,249,000,000 based on 21m supply) $48.816 trillion BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2025 $183,498 that's 8,742%. -------------------------- 2030 $3,471,145 Medium | Market cap ($72,894,045,000,000 based on 21m supply) $72.894 trillion $6,610,057 Parabolic | Market cap ($138,811,197,000,000 based on 21m supply) $138.811 trillion BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2030 $592,853 that's 28,791%. -------------------------- You need to stop looking at Bitcoin based on market capitalization, this is not a technology stock, this is not a company they cannot be compared what so ever. Its impossible to dilute Bitcoin, Its not impossible to dilute Apple shares. Fiat money can be printed and devalued renominated, Its impossible to print Bitcoin and create inflation outside of the 21m limit. Rick Falkvinge explains this perfectly, how do we calculate a 1 billion dollar market cap token? Step 1 Issue 1 billion Tokens Step 2 convince a few thousand people to buy each token for $1 Step 3 you now have what wall street uses to value companies economic value, and you probably just realized 100 Trillion in Bitcoin is not 100 trillion dollars, you can have a 1,000 trillion market cap with less than 50 Trillion of fiat value floating around in the asset. You start to realize the total crypto market capitalization filled with scams was not 3.0 Trillion in real fiat value. In 2021 at the peak only 176 Billion was the daily volume on Coinmarketcap, if you add in that market caps are not correct it would be less than a 10 billion per day of real fiat currency, its a lot correct but its not near what people thought. Lets continue the journey and use Visual Capitalist to see what money looks like today. -Notional value of derivatives is now estimated to be $600 trillion, notional value is another method to use over market cap. -Market value of derivatives $12.4 trillion -House hold wealth globally $463 trillion -Commercial real estate $33 trillion -Residential real estate $259 trillion -Global debt $300 trillion -Global money supply M1 $48.9 trillion M1 includes currency i.e. banknotes and coins, plus overnight deposits -Global money supply M2 $82.6 trillion M2 is a measure of the U.S. money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers' checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. -Global Equities $95.9 trillion -Central Bank Assets $28.0 trillion Fed, BoJ, Bank of China, and Eurozone only Here we come to the end, where you should now understand even purchasing $1 dollar of Bitcoin can equal a range of multiples more than 10x of market cap pressure if you're measuring it in market cap. What can we use besides market cap to find Bitcoins value? we can't it has not been created yet. Further points, sovereign states who purchase Bitcoin and have no plan to make them available to the public market like El Salvador that's another multiples of leverage on top of the original purchase, and unlike derivatives this leverage can be held infinitely just how central banks store Gold bars infinitely. Still wondering what this is implying after that long explanation? For Bitcoin to get near a $100 trillion dollar market cap giving it a price of $4,800,000 per coin you could pull this off with less than $10 trillion of real fiat injecting into the Bitcoin economy if 21,000,000 coins are openly traded. Some factors that will be unknown due to the nature of statistics - how many coins are truly lost? - how much fiat will central banks print? - how many users will be on layer 2s like the lightning network? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is why the Bitcoin exchange supply is acting abnormal and its starting to really decrease due to institutions, banks, funds all allocating behind the scenes regardless if Bitcoin goes to $5,000, $10,000 anything under $100,000 is cheap. Fidelity investments one of the largest funds in the world notices this trend and they have made their decision. What are pathways institutions are taking to capture this wealth? - Cold storage. - Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) call options that expire longer than 1 year. - Avoid futures ETF's or any futures product that does not use underlying Bitcoin, these decay and have management fee's and will greatly reduce your profit. (I found this ETF that tracks Bitcoins price?) forget it don't touch it. Bitcoin cycles will eventually became a thing of the past once adoption reached maximum velocity, lets enjoy the time we have with it now and respect it till its gone. Better call Doc Brown when Bitcoin starts to move you're gonna see some serious s***
BNC:BLXLong
by FederalXBT
6
⚡️BITCOIN⚡️ - THE BIG WAVE HAS STARTED! 🌊🌊Hello friends of trading View! I'm Gustavo Correa and I come to bring you another study on past and future correlations. Look at this monthly chart: We have just below the MACD indicator set at 5/15/9. See the particularities of these four moments when the MACD was negative and crossed to positive. 👉🏼 From left to right we see Bearmarket. Right after a crossing pointed out by the red circle, we observe a jump of 159%. 👉🏼In the second event, in May 2020, as soon as there was a crossing, there was a jump of 562% 👉🏼In the third event, on September 21, there was a crossing and then a 45% jump. Now see what a beautiful thing! A new event like the previous 3 is taking place. The crossover has already occurred and so far there has been a 23% jump. Will we see a violent bullish move, bigger than past events? The real thing is that Bullmarket has already started and we already have more than 80% appreciation so far. What do you think of this idea? Comment down below and see you next time!
BNC:BLXLong
by GustavoCorrea1
Short Term - Navigating Potential Correction and Managing RiskOver the weekend, I've been analyzing Bitcoin's performance, seeking to determine its next market move. Similar to my view on the S&P 500, I believe that Bitcoin is due for a correction in the near future. It's possible that we could see a spike to $30,600 or even slightly above before experiencing a larger rejection. This level represents an equality target based on my wave analysis. While it would be an extended move, I'd assign it a 40% probability of reaching that high. If Bitcoin does approach $30,000, be prepared for a swift spike, as numerous stop losses could be triggered at that level. Following a rejection, we can expect Bitcoin to revisit the 200-week moving average, currently around $25,000. It's not unusual for price action to oscillate around this crucial indicator. A drop from even our current levels to $25,000 represents a $2,500 move or roughly a 10% decline. While entering high-leverage short positions on Bitcoin futures or perpetual swaps might be tempting, it's essential to manage risk wisely. I personally liquidated (note: sold to cash) a portion of my BTC holdings at $28,000 last week and plan to wait for a significant pullback before re-entering the market with those funds. As for the much-anticipated altcoin season, exercise caution and consider reducing risk in this area as well. It might be prudent to take some profits now and look for re-entry opportunities when Bitcoin eventually corrects. Remember, market conditions can change rapidly, and it's essential to have a well-thought-out strategy in place. The current Bitcoin market outlook suggests a potential correction in the near future. As always, it's crucial to manage risk and avoid overexposure in high-leverage positions. Keep a close eye on market movements and technical indicators, and make informed decisions based on your own research and analysis. Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BNC:BLX
by bitdoctor