Bitcoin BTC Bull Market Golden CrossBitcoin BTC bull market golden cross, 5-day moving average MA10 crosses MA100 golden cross, this golden cross also appeared golden cross signal in the past bull market, 2012 bull market golden cross, 2015 bull market golden cross, 2019 bull market golden cross, 2020 bull market golden cross Fork, 2023 bull market golden fork again, such an obvious signal is right in front of you, what you do is people who don’t believe it, life and death are bearish, if you don’t accept it, you will do it, only the blind will not see the bull market golden fork, blow up the short, get rich and long, in the middle Satoshi Ben said: If you don’t understand or don’t believe it, I’m sorry, I don’t have time to convince you. The starting point of the bull market surge is on the moving average in front of you. The bull market is coming, and the point of the sword is invincible.
BLX trade ideas
The Bitcoin Event Of 2023The Next Big Bitcoin Event
Its getting to that time again the next Fib time sequence is around the corner, for months I have been going on about the next date, the last week of June 2023. Last year we managed to predict the biggest move of 2022 end of May/June 2022.
I would say I was pretty dam close and if you look at the date of that publication that was January 2022 so months before this timeframe, I already knew the outcome and it was all because of this Fib time sequence I have been using for over a year now.
When it comes to technical analysis I focus a lot on time, I think time is the key to be ahead when these macro pivots come and so far on a macro timeframe, we been successful since the start of 2022. The Fibonacci time sequence you see the main chart about is one I’m currently following closely even though is not the one, I have been following for over a year it still lines up to last week of June 2023.
If we look at the last cycle when can see that the timeframe between 0.5-0.618 happen to be a major pivot.
If we zoom in, we can see how closely 2019 its following, if we continue mirroring then its possible we see 38k top by end of June 2023 and come May 8th (0.5 Fib) we shall start seeing the pivot to the upside. Many traders are pointing to a retest of the top of previous resistance which was 25k , I think that is also possible but we would have to close above the 0.382 fib Fan to keep this rally alive , so a wick down to 25k and a close above 26k , just like it did march 6th 2023 with that massive weekly candle wick.
This date May 8th is lines up closely with the next FOMC meeting where will see what rate hike we will get if we get a pause, it would be setting up perfectly for one leg up, history shows that pauses cause short term rallies which are then followed by massive drops.
USDT dominance broke and closed above the 2/1 Gann Fann that I was watching closely which is not a good sign at all , if Bitcoin did wick to 25k then its most likely USDT would go up to the 3/1 Gann fan which is where it got rejected last time again march 6th 2023.
The bump and run that took Bitcoin out of a bear market last cycle gave us the pico top at 13.8k which was the 0.618 , this was the technical breakout target of the bump and run reversal
So this is where things getting interesting, the technical breakout target of this years bump and run that did the same thing as last cycle, took us out of a bear market is 60k , that’s right folks that’s the target of this Marco pattern.
So now to the doom and gloom the red dashed projection on the main chart. Every cycle we make a Marco double bottom , it will be a black swan event , last cycle it was covid this cycle war/banking etc many catalysts out there pick one , here it does not matter if it comes we go in heavy because we will be expecting it.
As you can see the double bottom happens before the halving event always and we are about 300days off the next which is in April 2024 so it is possible that we get the “pivot” for the crash coming last week of June 2023 if we keep on making lower lows on the daily week after week.
This year it is definitely much harder to call a direction, most of the market thinks we have plenty of time to move up but for me its 60days for the move whether is up or down it all depends for me on holding that 0.382 fan fib , we start closing under it come end of June then red projection is likely to play out , one thing for sure coming into this timeframe things are going to get crazy.
BLX Still Shows A Broken Trend And Slower Growth For BitcoinZoomed in, you can see price is butting right up against that broken long term trendline, while the weekly oscillator is reaching the overbought zone. Price has also yet to reach the bottom of the curved channel (pink)
The BLX chart is also mostly dominated by sell volume. Another odd thing to note is the enormous spike in volume on stablecoin traded pairs throughout the market turmoil, and specifically during the week of the SVB collapse. Even more perplexing is the huge drop off in volume as Bitcoin began to trade mostly sideways after that. Here's the Binance BTC/USDT chart as an example
If Bitcoin is to touch the bottom of the curve on my BLX chart, we could see a retest of the $15.5k low at minimum. My guess is that Bitcoin will ultimately fall out of the growth curve and trend lower over time. I made a speculative downtrend channel, giving Bitcoin perhaps a few more weeks of sideways and a possible new failed high. Due to the nature of Bitcoin's support (in that it is essentially an idea), it is unlikely to drop instantly to zero, but instead trend lower and lower as people lose interest over time.
Most still in the market seem to be bullish right now, already making projections for the next bull run. It's important to note that while SPX is still above 4000, Bitcoin is less than half of its all time high. Should traditional markets experience a more significant decline, I cannot imagine there would be enough liquidity to sustain another Bitcoin bull run. But....we live in strange times. It's perfectly possible that I'm completely off here. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my view for fundamental reasons. If Bitcoin continues onwards to a new all time high, I don't think it'll be accompanied by anything good...though I suppose that's part of the bullish Bitcoin thesis :)
As always, this is my opinion only and should not be taken as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment.
$BTC is the correction over, or do we grind higher?Been expecting a 3 wave move in this bear market formed of 5 waves down, 3 waves correction, final 5 waves down.
Not sure it is quite over yet and sentiment is that if the $32400 area is broken we have confirmation of a new bullmarket.
Indicators are suggesting we are more likely near a top than a new bullmarket based on:
Stoch RSI forming a double top pattern at extremes -: note, crossover not confirmed yet
Williams Vix in the low sell band
LMacd declining green bars divergence -: note, no moving average crossover yet
In my opinion, price can stretch higher and I will only look to short either:
A) when all 3 indicators are flashing at the same time to sell (awaiting the crossovers)
B) price enters my shorting zone marked in the rectangle
TVC:DXY having alot of fake-outs, but looks like it is building a bottom structure again
Natural Gas and Crude Oil are breaking out, which is a forward indicator of inflation surging again and therefore continuation of the bear market.
Selling pressure can come in May also from Gemini and DCG fud as well as US dumping silk road bitcoin
90k Bitcoin by Dec 2023?2023 looks like it will be bullish.
Is it possible that that Bitcoin could reach 90k by late 2023 or even early 2024? Yes anything is possible, however it's not likely. What is likely is the beginning of the new bull market (March/April) is what I believe. Until then, we will only see small movements with volatility growing upward into second quarter of 2023.
The Stochastic RSI on the monthly has never had a false signal and historical marked the beginning of the Bull market.
Only time will tell, Invest responsible.
This is by no means investment advice.
Wall Street Cheat Sheet Psychology of a Market Cycle on BitcoinWall Street Cheat Sheet Psychology of a Market Cycle is a very famous one among traders and investors. While this sheet was made with the intention of Stock Market, I see it's been used much in Crypto world as well.
In this chart I try to plot the respective psychological stages in the chart it self based on my interaction with local traders/investors. This is not an accurate as it's only reflects my personal view. Anyone can interpret this differently based on their social sentiment.
Something additional I have added are;
Line of Disbelief: This line indicates a price point where many people will have a disbelief of the price action
Line of Hope: This line indicates a price point where many people will move from Disbelief to Hope
Credits: wallstcheatsheet for building
Hope you liked it, as always share your views and criticism.
BTCUSDThis is the last run for me. Yes, you read that right.
2026 is for casted to be our next mother of all crashes. Feel free to visit this chart then. In 2023 every monthly red candle is a buy for me as i layer in. 2024 will be quiet but steady growth but I think we might see a monster divergence signal on the RSI as people buy property and are over extended. Margin calls will likely ruin 2026-2027 till 2030. i may update this as my studies are honed and refined but this is my initial cycle count.
But, I am 100% wrong...
M~
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD Are We There Yet? A Year LaterThe question on everyone's lips, are we there yet? Is the #BearMarket bottom in?
Almost 1 year ago to the day I shared my Bitcoin bottoms up idea:
Which used Ben Cowen's risk indicator to indicate the bottom or top of the Bitcoin market waves.
The theory for using this indicator is as follows:
1. Bottoms must be below 0.20
2. Tops must be over 0.85
3. Anything below 0.60 but over 0.20 is accumulation
As you can see the indicator called the following tops and bottoms:
2011 Bear Market Bottom
2013 Bull Market Top
2015 Bear Market Bottom
2017 Bull Market Top
2018 Bear Market Bottom
2020 Covid-19 Crash Bottom (Black Swan Event)
2021 Bull Market Top
That means that this theory of use for the indicator has correctly identified every significant bottom or top since 2011 apart from the November 2021 blow off.
While the November 2021 blow off top is not completely insignificant many do not count this as the top from a technical point of view and there are a host of valid reasons for that.
If we take a look to the present day we can see that between the end of June and October 2022 the indicator dropped below 0.20, which begs the question, was that the bottom?
I have marked 14th November 2022 as the possible bottom and there are strong indications that this is the case. However, what we must remember is the wider picture and the likely recession that is incoming (Bitcoin has never experienced a recession so will be unprecedented times).
I therefore believe we will see an accumulation phase, without breaking above the 0.60 level before returning back down for one final plummet to put in a further low (in much the same way we put in a higher high after the top was called in late 2021).
For me the sensible play is to allow the time to pass more before entering the market, as mentioned these are unprecedented times, with the Ukraine/Russia war and looming recession. The risk of further lows is far higher than the possible risk of not catching the exact bottom price in my opinion. Having said that if you did enter around 15.5, and I know some who did, you cannot say it was a bad move at all.
Let me know what you think
Everyone thinks the Bullmarket is BACK! ... but it isn't.BTC DOUBLE topped for the first time in its history. People expect there to only be ONE downtrend from the top... well reality is about to hit the bulls hard when the yield curve un-inverts and rates get cut. Don't believe me? Research those concepts for yourself and make a decision. It's different this time. You've been warned.
Bitcoin is so bullishBitcoin appears to have entered a bull market phase, which is characterized by an upward trend in prices over an extended period. While some traders may be focused on short-term gains, it is important to remember that in bull markets, the best strategy is often to hold onto your investments for the long term.
Short-term trading can be tempting, but it can also be risky. In a bull market, prices can be volatile and unpredictable, making it difficult to accurately time trades and exit at the right moment. Additionally, short-term traders are more susceptible to market fluctuations and can be easily shaken out of their positions by sudden drops in price.
On the other hand, investors who hold onto their Bitcoin for the long term are more likely to see consistent gains over time. While there may be some fluctuations in price, these are generally smoothed out over the long term, allowing investors to benefit from the overall upward trend in the market.
Of course, this does not mean that long-term investors should simply hold onto their Bitcoin without paying attention to market conditions. It is still important to monitor the market and make informed decisions about when to buy or sell. However, the focus should be on the long-term trends rather than short-term gains.
In conclusion, it is my belief that Bitcoin has entered a bull market and that investors who hold onto their investments for the long term are likely to see consistent gains over time. While short-term trading can be tempting, it is important to remember that in bull markets, the best strategy is often to hold onto your investments and ride out any fluctuations in price. As always, investors should carefully monitor market conditions and make informed decisions based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals.
Bitcoin FULL EW Model 🎯 🎯🎯BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
The PROOF is in the PUDDING
Beauty and the Beast
Its ALL in the charts, accurately nailing targets on BOTH sides, TOP & BOTTOM
Try find a TA on TV, YT or CT who has been THIS accurate
If you can't handle the bearish targets during correction, it means you ain't a true trader and don't got the guts or the balls.
Real traders bank profits on BOTH sides of the trade, not just during 'up-only' (so many got caught off-guard uptop above 60k yelling BTC 100k while the signals were all clearly there for over a month, just like during pre-may dump).
1 last & final leg missing to this beautiful beast, and if/when she starts to drip, sooooo many cryptomaniacs are going to be completely mind-blown & surprised
If you read this and saw my chart, then you now know what to be looking out for.
Good Luck
Bitcoin LongTerm Systematic Trade SetupBitcoin LongTerm Systematic Trade Setup
Max Drawdown Less than 25%
This is Systematic Trade Setup for Long-Term Investment (Months-Years)
We uses the Trend Based Fib Time tool along with Bitcoin fundamentals.
The maximum drawdown is under 25%, and both the long and short positions are based on macroeconomic data.
Back Test Stats (2019-2022)
Trade: 5
Win: 5
Lose: 0
Profit: 983%
The best Long position is the day that Bitcoin halved (May 2024 + Fib 2.618)
Profit: 559%
Why are you taking so much Stress?😉So I don't really see a lot of people talking about this on the Internet. Bob Loukas was the first who actually made a very Bold Statement that "Bitcoin usually follows a Three Year Bull Market Phase and then a Devastating Bear Market in the Final Fourth Year"
I have linked his Original vid in the end of this. Also except that 2010 Year if you just count BLX Chart on a Yearly Basis you can see how beautifully things have played for this Asset class. Now yes there will be a lot of No-Sayers about that Cycle doesn't work but just look at the Charts and see for yourself. Humans can lie at times, but Prices don't lie and it is clearly evident for your reference.
If we go by this Model (which has worked Three Times very accurately) the current low is at 15500k and this will be the final low, now it remains to be seen if we test that Dec lows of 2022 again. But even then Prices should not fall below 15,500 level.
According to this Model 2025 will be the final year of any Bullish Upside Momentum. We will see a lot more Optimistic Sentiment at that time right when the Top will occur. But for now i think we will continue Making Higher Highs and all that Nonsense Stuff...
Plus also it is much, much better to have a Swing Trading Approach so that you aren't just constantly Glued to Prices. Let's be Honest Trading can be a very challenging job plus it puts a lot of pressure on your Health, your own body to be right on every instance as I myself have tried in the past...
Listen, if you still want to Trade that is Perfectly fine even I do take occasionally Trades if I see any OPPORTUNITIES but have a Separate Account for that. "Grass is not always Greener" especially a lot of Fake Trading Gurus will tell you 'Buy my Freakin Course' 'Learn about this Crazy Indicator Setting', Trust me none of that will work. The Only thing works here is Having Patience, Believing in Yourself, Doing that Boring Thing, Learning and most importantly respecting the concept of Risk Management, Not having Emotional Attachment towards your Portfolio and also your Psychology I would say. Anyways if you have any questions regarding this let me know I will be more than happy to help you so that a lot of you could take advantage of this knowledge and won't mess unlike Previous Bear Market Rallies because Bear Market Rallies are Hard to catch and they do fool a lot of people if you been here in Trading/Investing you already know how Sharp they are. And thank you for reading all of this😊
Bob Loukas Original Vid Link : youtu.be
Bitcoin market cycles leading into 2025Here it is crypto fam. Here we have the market cycles for Bitcoin and in color. We begin with the year of the bull run then we have the bearmarket year then the year that no one likes which is the year of Pain. After pain we have the famous and most anticipated Bitcoin halving year then the most exciting time in crypto is the Bullrun year. We have had three of these cycles already and the fourth is coming upon us soon. Before we have fun though we will be going through the year of Pain this year because even though Bitcoin is climbimg beautifully now we are expecting another test to the bottom which we call Pain. The year of the halving in 2024 will be a great time to buy up your favorite projects and then when 2025 comes we have a beautiful Christmas.
45-48k Target, by May/July.Thinking echo bubble top plays out similar to previous cycle..
No guarantees of course..
My upside target is 45-48k my may/july this year..
As you can see, fib speed fan 0.75, 0.618 horizontal fib, and 0.75 time based fib all intersect and mark the local top.
The 0.5 is positioned where the bottom formed. The exact amount of time that it took from the 2017 top to the 2018 bottom, is repeated this cycle. 52 weeks.