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Bitcoin TA from 2010 to 2022 - Based on previous Patterns/cyclesAs I said I will post an idea different from Elliott wave theory. Not a financial Advice, this is my personal opinion or idea. This Bitcoin Technical Analysis is purely based on studying its own previous trends/cycles and predicting the future cycle. This is not based on Elliotte wave Theory nor am comparing it with DXY or S&P or Dow, next time I will make an idea based on correlation with DXY/Dollar. Before proceeding I will tell an interesting story " The Story of Zombie and chickens". A lazy zombie maintains the chicken farm, since chickens grow and breed faster so the numbers are keep growing n growing. Throughout the year zombie keeps eating chickens and he keeps growing bigger n bigger. Since the zombie is very lazy, he needs help and maintains a dog to look after all the chickens. As per now for every 4 years or so zombie gets seasonal disease and to get recover himself, he eats chickens in a massive number, not all though. Dog also keeps eating for his survival, but after all its dog, so when the dog gets older and unable to handle the chickens, zombie appoints a new young dog to take his place. The conclusion of this story is "Zombie never dies and keeps growing n growing, chickens are born kill and the dog keeps replaced by a new dog". Ok let's proceed with our Analysis. Different traders visualize the charts in different ways based on their own perception. Chart is the emotions of all traders, it's like map of treasures. I see many people use trend lines, Fibonacci, moving averages, Ichimoko or other technical indicators and many other. Even I use many of these, but for this am not using averages or Fibonacci or Ichimoko. Am using RSI and money flow index indicators and triangle pattern for this. 1.Explaining the Patterns or drawings which I created: Chart patterns in longer time frames, price moves in waves or some kind of curves rather than straight lines/trendlines. I made some concentric circles where the price is respecting more (basically support n resistances), that doesn't mean the price goes in a circular fashion and goes back to its origin - zero. Always trend breaks (upside or downside) so may be at some point of time it may break out this circular channel and form a new trend of circles. I created the triangle pattern in this way --> (A)previous ATH-> to ->(B)current ATH-> to ->(C)lowest bearish Point-> to -> Highest counter move). For each Bull of Bitcoin (with in 2yrs or so), it is forming a kind of symmetrical triangle with ABCD waves inside it. (Symmetrical Triangle pattern --> Breaking out of the pattern --> new Bull or new Triangle pattern again). 2.Observation and conclusion taken from the patterns: After deeply observing the previous 3 symmetrical triangles of Bitcoin-Green, Blue and Purple. I was wandering how to make the current pattern. The information I have is (previous ATH 20k (point A) + current ATH 70k (point B) + I took 15500(point C) as temporary Bottom. The conclusion is Green + Blue + Purple triangles are symmetrical in shape. (Symmetrical triangles are mostly bullish and breakout upside not compulsory though). But for the current cycle, bitcoin is making is Descending triangle. Descending triangle patterns are generally bullish as well as bearish depend on where they are created. (At the Bottom OR At top of the cycle). As of now it is at the top (so this means there are chances it may breakdown from this Descending triangle). What I observed is cycle after cycle the width of the triangles are increasing and the height is getting decreased, technically what does this mean? what I concluded is the move of going sideways is increasing and the momentum or motive of going up is diminishing/normalizing. (So, this means there are high chances Bitcoin may move less upside and may go sideways or down). One more thing I observed is after massive move/action of correction of every cycle (Bitcoin Bottom) there is counter move/reaction (Point D of the Triangle). Generally, the point "D" of every cycle is laying above the top edge of previous symmetrical triangle (the sky-blue horizontal arrow lines). (So based on the above observation I took the "D" point at 50k as counter move/reaction for current cycle/Descending triangle, also, it is coinciding with the concentric circles which I made). 3.Final Conclusion, studying the current Descending triangle (Red)/Probabilities: After over all study, this is my Personal Opinion: 1.Current correction is so massive with in short period of time, considering previous counter rallies and currently bullish Divergences formed in RSI + MFI taking into account, so high possibilities that there can be a counter rally up to 50k or more than that. 2.I don't think current low 15495 is Bottom for Bitcoin. May be temporary Bottom or it may go little lower than now creating 2 layers of bullish divergences in RSI (for temp Bottom). (Technically current pattern is Descending triangle, so high possibilities that Bitcoin may make lower low (another low may be 13780) after the counter rally. to my guess Bitcoin may put its lower low after the Halving). 4.Probabilities of next Bull/cycle: case1: After Bitcoin making lower low (may be 13.7k), this is the situation DO/DIE for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin manages to break out of this Descending triangle similar to previous moves, it can put a new ATH (for another decade Bitcoin may trade between 19k to 160k). case2: Since current pattern is Descending triangle, if Bitcoin fails to breakout from this channel, there are high probabilities that it will break down. If Bitcoin Breaks Down, most likely it will reset itself from over all cycle right from 2010. (This scenario can be same as my previous Elliott wave theory which I already shared.) Am sorry my Technical Analysis looks little complex; I hope I explained well. Thank you.
BNC:BLX
by nmchary
2
Bitcoin price of $330,000 by end of 2025 scenario 2Using the BLX chart on the 2 days to show Bitcoin as a scenario 2 possibility for Bitcoin reaching this $330k value by April instead of the end of year 2025. there are certain parameters used to make this assertion. On the first bear market of 2014 from the bottom to the next higher low was about 220 days and then the bull started for the next cycle. The next was in the 2018 Bear where we had the first low at $3200 and then the next higher low at $3900 which represents about 454 days before the next bull cycle kicked in where Bitcoin hit a high of $69k in 2021. If we take this double increase difference and add it to this next cycle we will see a possible 800 days from the first low to the next higher low and we get our possible April date for the Bitcoin peak in 2025. I am using a fractal plus the Beambands as an indicator for this possible target price which coincides at top of beamband in 2025.
BNC:BLXLong
by altcoinb
6
BTC USD - anticipating the low in 2023Update to the full version which is published June 6th 2022. Review the full article below in linked - Second link is a private update - now made public. G'day traders, investors, analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Neutral due to the overall monthly Supply PCP in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the pattern completion to a fresh demand tap has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. The methodology here is to trade spot and or invest, futures contracts to hold positions for periods over a span of weeks to months. If this is not specifically aligned to 'your strategy' then at least appreciate the structure. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Technical Setup Acronyms Key: CP - Continuation pattern DBD - Drop Base Drop OP - Original price DCA - Dollar Cost Average FL - Fresh Levels Check the updates to see where the logarithmic charts have taken us. Analysis's below Original outlook and full in depth analysis below. BTC - Outlooks for the Future A smaller counter trade buy and sell opportunity provided below; Daily update Short Term CP. Monthly Chart (no log) The monthly has created the supply zone at the all time high with confirmations provided on the weekly with a $9,000 ending at a a slight bullish indecision provided a test of the monthly curve (bullish), price broke and retested this with the consecutive bearish move. These two weeks from a $55,000 confirmation sell, provides a fresh supply zone. Price then on began the slippery slope of creating a 'Low', whereby price put in a lower low, before looing back to a pivot position back between December 2021 with the four weeks, creating a 'base' which aligned with the market structure (left). The weekly log chart shows price is below the fair value of BTC comprised of time of writing ($25,100) - technical traders will realise this is the previous PCP level and supply. Price has now formulated within the weekly zone as a retest, however yet to indicate a deep test of the zone (down to $15,000). Refer to article on historical diminishing returns and the lows of previous years (BTC - outlooks for the future). The latest Supply FL between $23-25.1k shows the sheer strength of the bearish moves taking place at present, along with the high curve which is being respected. updates price has now shown the mid regression band is in affect, where by price is well below the market fair value - with the weekly chart delayed by one day. Refer to BTC USD where the latest engulfing on the daily chart has been provided. Four Day chart The weekly and Four day provides the clear picture where the steep curve is intact and yet to be broken on a retest. This is due to the OL still yet to be tapped and the current zone acting as a strong tested zone - whether this will hold. The four day supplies are nested within the weekly chart so the above information holds as the structure of the market is outlined above. Daily Chart Where can price go? - it looks clear upon the current price cycle that price is looking towards the retest of the double bottom at the low of $17,500, this depends on the current double daily bottom of the $18.2k to be over come first. The downward channel as been creating multiple impulse, corrective and subsequent impulses again - this is due to the market structure (left) this enables the price action to show where price can free fall and where a hurdle has occurred - forming a pivot point for a correction or a consolidative base formation. latest update Daily Chart re-aligned for present values as at 16th Dec 2022 all notes above still apply - the only difference now is that after the break of the smaller channel - BTC is indicating a short term pivot to a selling level to continue the sells. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
BNC:BLX
by LupaCapital
Bitcoin Halving Macro AnalysisMy Macro thesis for how to trade the Bitcoin market cycle is largely dependent on the Halving schedule, roughly every 4 years the supply of new bitcoin rewarded for each block mined is halved. This event is typically a catalyst that begins the next bull run. The ultimate bear market lows occur roughly 500 days before the next halving. Many assume that the Liquidation of FTX has wiped all irresponsible leverage from the machine and the bottom is in time will tell if this is the case. In my opinion this 12 year cycle should be identified as something else I've called it a business cycle as this entire cycle has occurred during a macro economic bull-run without a global recession taking place. The break of the long term logarithmic support appears to support this thesis. I am still of the belief that the next halving which is set to occur April 10th 2024 will catalyze the next cryptocurrency bull run and ultimate lows will occur when the global recession has bottomed. Despite Bitcoin's deflationary tokenomics it is still ultimately a risk asset that will be sold as the market liquidity crunch continues.
BNC:BLX
by Armanhammer
Bitcoin Sentiment CycleBitcoin Sentiment Cycle Phase Justin Mamis sums up nicely what the sentiment cycle represents in saying: “What we have is essentially a graphical representation of the manic depressive moods typically experienced by market participants as a function of time and price in one complete sentiment loop.” > Returning confidence By the time confidence is fully restored, the markets have been rallying for some time. They start to get choppy and retracement moves get consecutively more fierce, each one more intimidating than the last. > "Buy the dip" A huge pullback now gets underway, even larger than the scary one you may have witnessed last month or so. After such a dynamic bull run, investors are willing to take on a phenomenal amount of risk, and the smart money buys the big dip. Also, money is still flooding in from the general public, who likely read in The Sun that stock markets will remain strong for all eternity. > Enthusiasm At this stage, all economic data still supports the idea of higher prices. Traders who didn’t get involved in the last-dip buying opportunity now have hard evidence that it worked before. All of the traders who wanted to be long are now long (there are no more buyers), causing prices to decelerate. Distribution starts to take place, i.e. stocks transfer hands from smart money to stupid money—strong to weak. > Disbelief / Overt Warning Traders start to get that gut-wrenching feeling that something may be changing, but the fundamentals still don’t back this up, and people cling onto hope alone. Analysts start to get subtle warnings. Maybe previous market leaders start to break below important support levels or moving averages. > Panic Typically there’d be a catalyst here (i.e. big banks like Lehman Brothers start to file for bankruptcy… sound familiar?). The index will break below a previous reaction low or maybe the 200-day moving average. News readers will be telling the world that the fun is now over. Intelligent investors start to sell rallies, giving stock prices little or no chance of any recovery. > Discouragement Prices have been rattling off for some time now as the general public starts shedding stock and the short sellers are stronger than ever. There’s no good economic news flow and everyone thinks that stock markets will go down forever. > Wall of Worry Certain market sectors will now start to bottom out as everyone who wanted to sell has done so. The smart money now starts to move in slowly, resulting in the market pausing for breath or drifting along sideways for a few months. There are no sellers left; so despite the bad news flow, markets start to creep higher. Short sellers start to cover their positions, adding fuel to the fire. > Aversion to Denial Markets start to trend upwards. Short sellers start to get concerned that sentiment has changed. With no sellers above the market, these sorts of moves can be fast and sharp and tend to leave people behind. Source: "The Nature of Risk" by Justin Mamis "A cycle begins with stocks climbing “a wall of worry” and ends when there is no worry anymore. Even after the rise tops out, investors continue to believe that they should buy the dips... Unwillingness to believe in that change marks the first phase down: “It’s just another buying opportunity.” The second, realistic, phase down is the passage from bullish to bearish sentiment... Selling begins to make sense. It culminates with the third phase: investors, in disgust, dump right near the eventual low in the conviction that the bad news is never going to stop . . ." Disclaimer: Autor (Polmej) is not responsible for any damages and losses related to any products, services or ideas. Autor (Polmej) encourages the audience to conduct their own investigations with due diligence on the company, product, service or idea. Autor (Polmej) does not provide investment, financial or legal advice.
BNC:BLX
by polmej
Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator has given good buy signalsThis is the BLX daily chart. The following are the 14 times in Bitcoin's history that have given buy signals as good opportunities to buy Bitcoin for long term accumulation: 12/21/11 Buy $3.89 6/19/12 Buy $6.49 2/7/13 Buy $22.04 1/28/15 Buy $234.61 5/6/15 Buy $229.86 5/17/15 Buy $236.49 6/18/15 Buy $249.02 1/9/19 Buy $4020.12 12/27/19 Buy $7245.33 4/23/20 Buy $7478.18 7/12/20 Buy $9306.71 12/2/20 Buy $19231.24 8/7/21 Buy $44635.65 8/19/22 Buy $20834.94 Assuming 1% average buy fees over the last 11 years and buying $1000 worth of BTC each time, your $14000 BTC investment would have bought 469.442 BTC. At the current $17648 price, your $14000 investment would now be worth $8,284,704. The hash ribbons indicator hasn't given a buy signal yet, but probably will within the next month.
BNC:BLXLong
by shubbs