AW Bitcoin Analysis - The Definitive Conclusion Chart...Please take a moment to imagine such a scenario in which these waves could play out.
It might have something to do with US Dollar strength and higher interest rates.
On a positive note, we all know what comes after Wave 2.
Would you rather use the waves to determine future price action or a lovely hopium chart full of rainbow ribbons and death crosses, I mean moving averages.
Of course, this is just a logical way of looking at a chart but logic flies out the window when you have your Lambo lenses on.
It may not go that low or it might go lower. No one can really know what the state of the world will be during that time.
Asset prices may have declined significantly priced in worthless FIAT.
Social unrest, war, famine, pandemics and supply chain failure.
We don't really know but we do know that what goes up must come down, even if that means it will go up harder later.
Please see all related wave analysis videos linked below.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
BLX trade ideas
We made it famWe hit .113 fib at $3200 from the top as usual. First fib was 34.618 at $1200 followed by 21.618 at $19k. Next fib is 13.168 at $222k. It can hit again $3200 but based on MA 200 weekly historical support I would say that we're basically done with the bear market. Don't sell. Don't trade. just buy and hold. $222k will come in 4.5-5.5 years. 35x to 60x return depending on where you enter. Cheers!
2010-2023 Elliott Wave: BitcoinBitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. Transactions are verified by network nodes through cryptography and recorded in a public distributed ledger called a blockchain. The cryptocurrency was invented in 2008 by an unknown person or group of people using the name Satoshi Nakamoto. The currency began use in 2009 when its implementation was released as open-source software.
BTC (BNC) 1D - Are we seeing lower lows before Trendreversal?Bitcoin is rallying since couple of days and making all Bulls extremely happy, yet, we need to pay attention of possible downtrends or invalided patterns for a bullish scenario.
The falling wedge (purple) is playing out so far. Adding FIBA from the local high (5. NOV - Start FTX Saga) we see that level of -0.618 are reasonable.
For now we are looking at Fiba level 0.5 that coincides with the falling wedge and a Reversal Point (blue). Eventually we get higher to Fiba 0.618 as potential Bull trap and get all the way down before we rally.
At the level of 18,700$ for Bitcoin is a major liquidation level waiting to dumb the price. Another liquidation levels are at 15,500$ and 13,800$
Thanks for reading, commenting and sharing.
10 Potential Trends 2023 by EXCAVOPotential trends and my thoughts on the future
- 1. Increased Crypto Regulation
2. I'll start by explaining what L0, L1, L2, and L3 are:
L1 - Transactions
L2 - Closing problems of L1
L3 - Applications/Infrastructure for Applications
L0 - Cross-chain infrastructure
*L1 solution cannot be fast, scalable, and decentralized at the same time.
Protocols L1:
Ethereum (ETH)
Toncoin (TON)
Solana (SOL)
Near (NEAR)
New L1 Solutions :
Aptos
Sui
Canto
Fuel
Shardeum
Quai
Linera
Sei
Disadvantages of the New L1
ETH dominance
Past failures of "new" L1
Interest in LAYER L2 solutions
LAYER 2 - a protocol deployed on top of the main blockchain (Layer 1) is needed to increase the scalability of L2 - solutions are used for popular blockchain platforms with low bandwidth, such as Ethereum and Bitcoin
Pay attention to:
Arbitrum
Optimism
Polygon
zkSync
Fuel Labs
Advantages:
Ethereum is the most popular ecosystem
Developed infrastructure
Request for scaling
Disadvantages:
Risk of vulnerabilities
The problem of mass adoption
Key challenges:
Attraction of liquidity
Competition
Layer 0
Cosmos, Polkadot, Avalanche, Cardano
3 . Exchange tokens also remain interesting for market participants; some exchanges leave while others remain and they see opportunities for customer growth and platform development. I would like to highlight several exchanges that are now actively working to become top exchanges:
Okex
Bitget
Wootrade
If I missed any exchange, please write in the comments
4. For potential trends, pay attention to the simplification of financial interactions, new types of fundraising, DeFi of the second and third generations, WEB3 is not yet used in a large part of the cryptocurrency market. Remember something that was very hyped in the past but has not yet been transferred to a decentralized plane, such as with ICO/IDO like IPO, as as well as NFTs like Bearbrick and KAWS. Look for a super idea or potential fierce hype.
5. DeFi will continue to develop, and from the future leaders, I think there will be projects such as:
dYDX
Lido
Uniswap
Maker
Curve
Advantages:
Request for decentralization
Ecosystem support
High profitability in terms of business
Disadvantages:
Regulatory risks from the US
Higher entry threshold than CEX
Hacking attacks
Key challenges:
Stimulation systems
Competition
6. At the end of last year, I began to look very closely at the Chat GPT platform, of course, it made me look at what is happening and the future of the world in a different way. And a few days ago, a list of crypto projects related to AI (AI) was published:
coinmarketcap.com
dropstab.com
Many began to write about the potential trend in this direction at the next Bull Run. And this is certainly the case. Any trend starts like this. But I want to note that there are already plenty of projects working with Big Data - DYOR
7. Proof of Physical Work consensus
I wrote in a previous post
8. Wallets
Due to the mass distrust of centralized exchanges, wallets will gain popularity in this cycle, this hype will be facilitated by the release of the metamask token.
As for me, I use several cold wallets and I really like mobile phone wallets such as C98, Safepal, and Trustwallet.
9. Social media
Decentralized social networks are a potential new boom:
DeSo, Nation, Farcaster, Lens Protocol, Braintrust , and so on are some examples to look out for.
Centralized social networks
Potentially, each social network (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Telegram) will have a direct sending of cryptocurrencies. It looks like this, stablecoin issuers are already working on implementation. This will be the next trigger and stage of adoption, which will mark the new BullRun of the cryptocurrency market, after which we will see a global restructuring of the TOP 50
The main IT giants are Apple and Google - they have been preparing to enter the cryptocurrency market for 2 years. They will be able to take the cryptocurrency industry to the next level, but I think it will not be in this cycle
10. AAA Blockchain Games
....will continue to be developed
I communicate very well with the project team, see for yourself how cool it is
www.youtube.com
I will say more, I have already played the beta version
It is also important to note that all investments come with some level of risk and even the most promising projects and trends can have unforeseeable challenges and obstacles. It is always important to conduct a thorough analysis of any investment opportunity and understand the level of risk involved before making a decision. Never invest more than you can afford to lose and always be mindful of the long-term potential of any investment.
As a final note, it is also important to keep in mind the importance of regulations and compliance in the financial markets. The crypto and blockchain space is still largely unregulated and many projects and trends may fall foul of legal and regulatory requirements. It is important to stay up-to-date with any changes in laws and regulations in the countries you are operating or investing in.
I hope this information has been helpful in providing some context and guidance when it comes to trends and developments in the financial markets, and a deeper understanding of the crypto and blockchain space. Remember, it is essential to conduct your own research and make your own decisions based on your financial goals and risk tolerance.
If I missed any trend write it in the comments
Best regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin's Route to $3,000,000+: An Elliott Wave Based OutlookWhat are the possibilities for the future of Bitcoin? There's mixed perspective with the retail and institutional world of investors but to base things solely on my opinion of its all-time wavemapping, I think Bitcoin could see upwards of $3M-$4M per coin by the early 2030s. I too anticipate a number of heavy, undeniably deep corrections to come during that timeframe but Bulls should be able to do the heavy lifting to restore its value. Regardless of whether you're a lifelong Bitcoin fanatic or an unbiased trader for profit, the pending corrections can and should be avoided. This is how profits are maximized. Hopefully this is the last Bitcoin chart I'll ever have to share on TradingView but nevertheless, I will update accordingly.
Some similaritiesInteresting to see the price of Bitcoin appear to to be entering accumulation around a year after its peak similar to previous behaviour. Honestly not too sure how long this can go on for, so many macro factors that could alter this behaviour, causing btc to enter longer accumulation than normal, or continue downward. But for now, the trend is your friend. I'm buying.
Why 90% of new investors losing moneyHi Tradingview Crypto community!
We have stepped into New 2023 Year and today I would like to list and share the most common reasons why new crypto beginners are getting “rekt” and end up losing money. Whatever your crypto investment or trading strategy is, these should be considered as a priority. Once you address these mistakes first, you will be able to make rational crypto decisions and prepare yourselves for the next Bitcoin bull run cycle.
Why 90% of new investors losing money:
-being new to crypto markets and having no knowledge about market cycle’s structure. Market moves in cycles.
-entering crypto market at the wrong time and at the peak of bull market. Crypto mainstream adoption works in the way that media encourages new investors to join crypto space at the top of markets.
-not understanding the complexity of cryptocurrencies. 90% of people do not understand the concept of cryptocurrencies and how to buy their first Bitcoin.
-lack of technical skills how to store or transfer crypto funds. Many people losing funds because of not managing their sensitive private and log in data safely, sending cryptocurrencies to wrong blockchains.
-being impatient and greedy with a “getting rich quick” mindset. Financial markets including crypto works in a way that capital flow from weak to strong hands, from impatient to patient investors.
-making uninformed decisions due to lack of knowledge about markets dynamics and price behaviour. Many investors do not understand that market follows the same patterns or waves.
-making irrational investment and trading decisions based on emotions and not understanding market psychology. Crypto market just like any financial market is a reflection of human emotions. Investors tend to make the same mistakes based on fear and greed emotions.
-not understanding crypto safety and security measures. Often funds disappear due to new people losing access to wallets or private keys, being naïve and falling into a trap of scammers.
My non-financial advice for new beginners would be to learn in depth about cryptocurrencies fundamentals, develop a good set of technical crypto and safety skills, spend 3-6 months watching and paying attention to crypto markets.
Don’t rush into the markets and spend some time to educate yourself before making your first crypto investment.
Cryptolearn:” Invest in yourself for a better future”.
For more ideas and educational content on how to become a successful investor, make sure to follow us here.
Yearly Opening RangeI put this chart together for the Trade Talk community to see just how important yearly opening ranges are, and how much importance they carry through out the year. It is one of the simple ways for pro traders to technically identify trend, and how to stay on the right side of the trend for the entire year. View it on the daily time frame, and use it to see how past price performance operated when encountering these levels. Some of the best trades intra year can be taken, at or around these levels, please like share, and enjoy. Make sure you trade safe, make sure you trade smart, and as always, happy trading everybody!
Bitcoin historical analysis - part 4 2023On the 14th of November 2022
Things are a bit more complicated, the fed is trying to draw money out of the system, and we have had a lot of big companies be taken down through fraud thanks to SBF and his criminals.
We have identified the downwards trendline - 2 of them to take note of
And the priced has retraced below the 0.768 level
The RSI has had a technical breakout
And on this date, we had clear bullish divergence .
with this and the previous analysis, i suspect that we have had a bottom local bottom of 15 500 before we have some upside.
Note that I expect us to come and retest this trendline level ta some point
Bitcoin historical analysis - part 3On the 11th Feb 2019
We have identified the downwards trendline
And the priced has retraced below the 0.768 level
The RSI has had a technical breakout
And on this date, we had clear bullish divergence .
Due to the covid crash, BTC came and retested the level that BTC broke the trendline, confirming the uptrend
Bitcoin historical analysis - part 2In April 2015
We have identified the downwards trendline from the high
And the priced has retraced below the 0.768 level
The RSI has had a technical breakout
And on this date, we had clear bullish divergence (well the RSI started to increase, there was no lower low but the price was more or less equal)
In August BTC came back to retest the trendline to confirm that bitcoin was going to rise in price afterwards
Bitcoin historical analysis - part 1On the 17th of November 2011
We have identified the downwards trendline from the high
And the priced has retraced below the 0.768 level
The RSI has had a technical breakout
And on this date, we had clear bullish divergence.
On the smaller time frames i am confident that bitcoin broke out of its trendline and retested before leaving this price level
Bitcoin very soon back to 200 MA - $24,500This chart shows the following:
Yellow vertical lines - Bitcoin mining reward Halving dates
Purple dotted vertical lines - Weekly RSI minimums
Blue boxes - shows length of time between halving and next macro bottom
Yellow text - number of days for blue box - (time between halving and next macro bottom)
As can be seen, Bitcoin has never spent this long at the bottom of a bear market. Bitcoin is very overdue a retrace to the 200 MA - which is currently around $24,500. Bitcoin did actually bottom on the 13th of June, but recently has had a black swan 'fakeout' bottom due to the FUD news event surrounding FTX. As soon as investors realise that FTX is not Bitcoin, we will very likely see a rapid retrace to $24,500. Then it will be obvious that Bitcoin has bottomed.
On average - Bitcoin tends to retrace about 250% before the next halving. That would put bitcoin at around $50,000 by May 2024.
Enjoy this chart and share ! Thank me later.
Next Bull Cycle TopHello all,
Here is my prediction for 2023-24
1. Bitcoin is going to capitulate one more time to find the REAL bottom before the next bull cycle. ~12,000
2. 2023 will be the year of accumulation.
3. The next Bull cycle top will be around 160,000.
4. The next cycle top will be sometime around April 2025
This is not financial advice and please do your due diligence before investing.
Thanks