Long Term Trend Analysis With Pivot PointsJust doodling. Trying to work out wen bear market is over and where moon is.
Vertical purple dots = halving
$170,000 in 2025? Moar adjusted with inflation?
BLX trade ideas
BTC RoadmapNow we have the 200 EMA on the 2 weeks' time frame companied with the lower support line of the channel that make very strong support level, and with the current world economic circumstances the movement to upside will be very slow.
We have to touch the heavy resistance of the 20 EMA and 50 EMA first then will back test the 200 EMA again then break the 50 EMA at 30k and holding there for a while upto 50k.
The real movement will start with the beginning of March 2024 which will start our bull market and this will take around 550 days to reach the target between 320-440k at first of september 2025.
Let's hope this will go like the above scenario without any upcoming world war :D :D
BTCUSD Fibonacci Time zonesI have drawn a Fibonacci time zone for each cycle from the top to the point the bottom is reached. After this, the Fibonacci sequence begins to count.
I am starting at the top of 2011 to the bottom at the end of 2011, and these time zones count in vertical black lines.
After this, I drew another Fibonacci time zone from the top of 2014 to the bottom in 2015, and here again, a new count starts and is visible in dashed lines.
Finally, from the top of 2017 to the bottom of 2018, I once again drew a Fibonacci timezone, which is visible in the dotted line. Based on the Elliot Wave principle, in which waves 1, 5, 21, and 89 are cycle peaks, and waves 2, 8, 34, and 144 are complete market cycles.
When I apply this principle to the drawn fib time zone tool described above, I conclude that it gives pretty accurate insight into when possible tops and bottoms are set; each number of each illustrated fib tool is in a different subdivision and grade.
For example, the 3 indicates when the price will reach an all-time high for the first time after a bear market; I marked this in orange.
Red indicates a top of a bull market, and ditto for 13 and 21.
Number 8 shows the bottom of the bear market.
We are again at point 8, where a bottom would be set. In my view, Bitcoin is getting ready for another first impulsive wave of a new trend.
In my Elliott Wave count, in 2019 to 14k wave 1, ABC correction with wave C completed in March 2020. This was followed by an impulsive wave 3 ending in early 2021 and then a truncated fifth in November 2021.
Bitcoin's Probable Wavemap: $113K to $5KWhile Bitcoin's fate is unwritten, considering its historical, all-time price action there are certain signals that we should be able to gather, based solely on its continuous price action. Over the last few months, the wave count for BTC has been a bit muddy at best but should we be where I think we are, the Digital King will be soon on its way towards a new all-time high precisely in the range of $113K (based on BTC's all-inclusive wavemapping).
Though this hypothetical pending pump will be euphoric for many of us retail traders, from where I sit, the unorthodox ATH will amount to nothing more than a sucker's rally. The days of enormous Bitcoin growth are on ice until the current corrective phase finishes. Bitcoin enthusiasts across the world are happy that the downward-swing is signaling the end of the #CryptoWinter. I definitely look forward to the #CryptoSpring as well, but I am not very optimistic that that the mid-term (3-5 years) forecast will result in the bulls favor!
We could see seasonal swings of winter > spring > fall ...
#CryptoWinter = 2021-2022
#CryptoSpring = 2022-2024
#CryptoFall = 2024-2027?
Traders that have numbly relied on the Halvening to be the catalyst for Bitcoin's new growth cycle will likely be in for a rude awakening during the #CryptoFall. If/when Bitcoin Bulls are unable to maintain its current 5 year trend line, its heavy RSI divergence (since February 2021) should/could force a deep, healthy correction. Before Bitcoin is able to achieve more high-rate growth, it must first withstand a very probable, mind-blowing 93% correction from the likely ranges of $113K to $5K.
BTC is ready for a BIG MOVE in the next monthThere are eery similarities to the 2018 bear market with BTC having gone quiet for 129 days, since this year's low on the 16th June.
In 2018, we had a period of 143 days from the local low on the 24th June, to the capitulation triggered on the 14th Nov. A further move down of -46% was the result.
However, history rhymes but doesn't usually repeat. So could we in fact be in the accumulation phase, similar to 2018 directly after the capitulation?
Have a look at the 108 day period from the 2018 low on 15th Dec to the breakout on the 2nd Apr 2019, where there was a period of relative inactivity, just like the one we're going through now.
When we look purely at like for like similarities, the capitulation scenario seems more likely. But that seems all too easy to anticipate. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finding potential macro lows in the last two weeks, perhaps we are coming to the end of the accumulation phase, and about to make a big move up?
Either way, I'm going to be ready for both scenarios!
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Prepares for New All-Time High Near $99.4KBy or during Spring 2024, Bitcoin should be near its next destination within the expected price itinerary ($99.4K). After taking a Beary Bad beatdown over the past 8 months, the gloomy sentiment of further capitulation has settled within the minds of many retail traders. Making the timing ripe for the market to feast.
According to the waves we've witnessed from June until now, I on the other hand think that Bitcoin has instead taken all the abuse it will allow from the Bears, for now.
With a 73% reduction in value from its current all-time high at $70K, price action has seemingly formed a vey sharp zig-zag wave downward. Based on my personal wave count from Bitcoin's very first all-time low candle, I think the macro pattern spells out a pending pump for the Digital King.
Forming what I believe to be a Leading Diagonal from June's bottom price at $17.6K and ultimately pushing up to the range of $25K, the Digital Surf Gang and I were totally expecting a deep dive back to the range of $18-$20K for a major test and a likely level of discovered macro support. If I had to be more specific on the expected support level, I'd guess that it comes near $20.1K, in a matter of hours from now. With an apparent Leading Diagonal in Wave 1 (of a hypothetical Wave A), I expect Wave 3 of said Wave A to become extended in form. This extension would likely get Bitcoin back above $40K by October of this year (2022).
Looking beyond the nearest term pump, I believe that Bitcoin will reach the $99.4K mark by Spring of 2024 . As you can see on my chart, though I'm confident that a new all-time high comes, it'll likely only be a big trap as the ascending move would be due to come in corrective form, instead of impulsive. Not too long from now, many traders and investors will better understand why it is better to 🏄 than to #hodl (if they haven't already).
GOLD not looking good XAU/USDnot looking to good IMO, Got bearish Diversion on very high time scale, The ,momentum is clearly waning lower BUT I have seen technical be completely ignored
reeeePast performance is not an indicator... You know the drill
But it's interesting to see that every cycle has its stages and which stages we're at
Things might change with ETH's merge though
Bitcoin Halving Bull and Bear RunsThis chart identifies the last 3 bitcoin halvings and what happened to the bitcoin market immediately following the halving and shortly after it. What do you think crypto markets will do when the next halving occurs in 2024?
BTC 3-montly chart - what does it look like?12 years after the origin of BTC
12 years of massive gains
Never far below the 200 weekly ma
Will this ever end in a correction?
What we know:
-BTC makes nice elliot wave patterns 1-2-3-4-5
-BTC makes elliot wave correctional paterns ABC
-BTC retraces after a 12345 to 61% of leg 4-5
This has happened all 3 normal bull runs with tops 2011-2014-2017
And the composition of these 3 bull runs makes 1 big 12345 wave pattern.
And this pattern has not yet been to the 61% of leg 4-5, instead we got a higher push to 60K, what makes it a elliot irregular flat pattern.
Now the question is will we go to 61% of leg 4-5, which is around 1K.
In my opinion this is possible,
-The crypto hype might be a bit over for some time, every plumber, painter and carpenter has bought in in the mean time.
-The economy and inflation could drive people to sell
-We are still mostly using the banks.
-There's RSI divergence on the 3 montly chart
-There's a sell on the market god indicator, the first one ever.
-The 200 weekly ma and 50 montly ma supports are getting weaker and weaker
The road to 1 K will not be a straight line, we will bump on the +/- 20K and later on on the trendline from 20K-14K top.
But I think that's inevitable that the market has to cool down a bit, with this all in mind.
Cycles of BitcoinIn weekly time units and in logarithmic scale, we can see that the cycles of Bitcoin have been based on technical support since 2010. This support gave way only once during the panic of the world stock exchanges in March 2020, due to the Covid 19 pandemic. This representation shows that Bitcoin is probably on the low of the current cycle (end of cycle) and that it will never return below $17,500, except in the event of a new global crisis which could cause the price to fall below its historical support.
The same analysis done in February 2019:
My analysis on the end of the current bear market:
BTC looking to cross the 21 SMAin 4-6 Weeks we will hopefully see BTC cross the 21 SMA as it has done historically at market bottoms.
BTC Puell Multiple chartingSo I noticed Benjamin Cowen and our beloved scammer fortflies using this "Puell Multiple" chart and my somewhat educated eye noticed some channeling and divergences happening. Just an interesting chart, avoid taking this to the bank
Btc 2x strong suport and rezist with perfrct balance on price. But when Broken trendline , we can go on next target.
...GOOD ADVICE = FREE......AND COULD SAVE LOT'S OF MONEYHello friends, no long stories, I have this chart for some time and would like to share it today, because otherwise it will take maybe even more time, to get back to 1K.
All the moon boys should sell their coins.
NO BITS, NO BUTS just SELL. I have more things to do.
#BTC Critical Trend Tomorrow (October 13.2022) Inflation rate will be published and if inflation rate less then expectation, we can see a pump on bitcoin. Furthermore, decrease at inflation will cause less interest.So, 30k we can talk in this situation.
But if inflation rate will be more then expectations GG
Reality Check GG Bitcoin I had my fun, stop being delusional, and come back to reality. on all large timeframe, BTC looks bearish and BTC already had a good run from 3.3k all the way to 64k sorry if you missed out. Also, I don't care if the instantiations are in, those are going to be the same guys who dump on you and make you all bagholders. Play it smart and don't FOMO at the top. Here is some advice if everyone thinks something is going to happen in reality it does not happen, don't end up as a statistic. I will look for a rebuy only at 42k if the bulls are willing to step in, besides that I wish you all the best of luck and I will keep you all updated. :)
BTC third drop and up we go!As you can see, All tops had 3 correctional waves. We are now in wave 3 - but still awaiting that final drop that happened in every other correction !
keep patient!
BTC - Wen The Next Floor Sweep?So I decided to draw my favorite tool (Fib Retracement Tool) seriously this shit ain't even funny! Wuts not funny about this if my wave count is correct which I know is but could be wrong is that the Fib 0.32 will always be touched in a correction after wave 5! Deal with it.
Next Stop $25K BitcoinWARNING!!!!
Chart may induce seizures
I have some serious chart shame about this one but IDC my point is still valid (I moved my magic bold white line )
I think I'm calling it, Bitcoin bear over. as soon as the weekly moving averages started trending up @ the yellow arrows, despite all of what's going on in the world I turned bullish. I'm scared.
Feelings check:
-70%/30% lows are in. (in bitcoin)
-50/50 we retest lows again similar to 2015 (even if spx makes new lows Bitcoin will hold the door)
One more US rate hike to come
30% chance we see a 2000/ 2008 type bear market. I will be selling 25K no matter what
80% chance we don't see Oversold US Oil as an indication of market bottom like other bear markets due to huge supply issues (Even though the demand destruction is huge) this will likely lead to higher inflation for longer and the FED will be forced to admit defeat with the interest rate hikes because of the_________ breaking.
Buy bitcoin Nov13 2022 to Jan 13 2023...Or right now...And update to one of my previous bitcoin cycle charts.
I KNOW ITS VERY BUSY, I HAVE ADHD! (and my charts are for me anyways.. i know what i mean)
Over simplification:
Bitcoin bottoms Mid Jan 13 2015, Mid Dec 2018, so now it must bottom Mid Nov 2022
Bitcoin still only down 70%ish needs to go down >80%ish
All this correlates with my magic thick white trendline of the BTCUSD bottoms during bear market, seems to always break down under that trend line indication VERY oversold (capitulation)
You(ie: me ) wanted an easy button, here it is!
Over simplified Bull Case:
My Dashed green and blue Fib lines from last cycle = Buy (doesn't work for 2015 cycle at all...)
Miner capitulation ( hashrate MA cross) = buy
Bitcoin didn't go up as much as previous cycles so it wont go down as much
