40% retracement likely. $btcmaybe we push to new highs briefly but the inevitable 30% retracement is over due. I have a long position but am still relatively bearish despite this uptick. Long-term outlook is still the same. BTC to the moon
BLX trade ideas
Liquidity and BTC: Symbiotic RelationshipIt is well-known that BTC is a child of liquidity, but I'm not sure how if people realize how much when liquidity is measured at Global Money Supply - USD adjusted (indicator by SirChub). The last two cycles and the current one are plotted. As you can tell, the relationship is strong. In recent years, rapid liquidity increases have lead increases in the BTC price. Will do a separate post, but what is interesting is that this cycle, is that increases in price has lagged liquidity by around 72 days. I'll hope to come up with a simple indicator to capture this soon, but you can use SirChub's indicator in the meantime.
Cheers.
Bitcoin 1 000 000$ ❚ Livermore cylinder📣 Hello everyone!
I bring to your attention my, I’m not afraid of this word, GLOBAL trading idea for Bitcoin for the decade ahead!
☝️ Now let me, as briefly but informatively as possible, explain to you how, step by step, Bitcoin will most likely come to $1,000,000 dollars, as well as what the two most serious risk factors are today ⚡️
In 1929, Jesse Livermore published this hypothetical chart (bottom right) showing “The Most Important Thing Happening to the Price of A Stock.” At the beginning of this pattern there is an expanding accumulation wedge, an upward “megaphone” (“horn”) formed from two sloping trend support/resistance lines. In the original, according to Livermore, it is necessary to take into account the volume when forming a pattern, but in my opinion, in relation to Bitcoin, it is better to take into account the spread; I removed this turkey from the final chart for the aesthetic reasons of the trading idea, so let’s study it on our own.
Having spent quite a lot of time on multiple technical and fundamental analysis of BTC, as well as taking into account trends in the macroeconomics of the United States and the world economy as a whole, I came to the conclusion that a very strong bullish pattern is forming on the Bitcoin chart - the EXPANDING WEDGE OF LIVERMORE ACCUMULATION!
This means that from the birth of Bitcoin until 2024, all these bullish and bearish microcycles are a period of accumulation of the asset!
🔹 Now briefly on key points according to the pattern:
1️⃣ All-time Low (ATL) - the minimum price of Bitcoin in its entire history, the birth of an asset!
2️⃣ ATH 2017 – First serious takeoff 🚀 Maximum of the bullish rally that ended in 2017 in the 19-20 k$ zone
3️⃣ Low 2018 – minimum correction after ATN 2017
4️⃣ ATH 2021 – a new absolute historical maximum in the area of 69k$, which only a few spoke about in 2019, including me with my trading idea Bitcoin $55 k$
5️⃣ Correction completed - low 15.4 k$ - Correction to growth to $69,000 completed in November 2022
6️⃣ The end of the bullish rally 2022-2025 - Bitcoin price 115-150 k$
- According to the graphical pattern I am considering, the long-term upward trend will most likely be limited in growth, taking into account the error on the monthly frame, by the zone of 115 - 150 k$ - At the moment, Bitcoin is consolidating above 60 k$.
The second inflation wave will force the Fed to return to tightening monetary policy after the US elections, probably closer to the second half of 2025 or even by the end of this year! Bitcoin will set a new ATH before this time and a long-term bearish trend will begin.
7️⃣ In 2027 - low correction ≈ 30 k$, the Fed is forced to give up, the war against inflation is lost. The start of an unprecedented QE... FED Money printer - brrrrr.....
- In 2027, the Fed will be forced to surrender, the war against inflation is lost. The United States will solve all its problems in the only possible way - launching a printing press and unprecedented QE. 2027 marks the start of the dollar's descent into hyperinflation.
The Bitcoin correction will end at 30 k$ +-10%, this will be the last opportunity to buy before the bull market of the century, the realization of an exit from almost 20 years of accumulation!
8️⃣ The most powerful and fastest bull rally in history! The first wave after exiting
accumulation. Hyperinflation in the USA...
- The most powerful and fastest increase in the price of Bitcoin in history! The first wave of the bullrun after exiting accumulation, within 1-2 years the mark of 500 k$ per coin will be reached. The United States is plunging into hyperinflation, the dollar is leaving the world stage, and the yuan is taking its place. Digital assets and commodity markets are growing.
9️⃣ ATH is coming soon... The second wave of the bull rally!
- Soon there will be ATH in pairs with the dollar... The second wave of the bullish rally! Hyperinflation is growing, the Fed can do nothing more - the phrase “dollar collapse” will sparkle with new colors among skeptics.
1️⃣0️⃣ Bitcoin $1,000,000 + "Bubble Peak"
– Bitcoin has crossed the $1,000,000 mark, the peak of the dollar bubble. In 2030-2035, the dollar may cease to exist as a currency in general; trading against the dollar may simply be stopped.
The value of BTC will already be measured, for example, against gold in the BTC/GOLD pair, or the Chinese yuan BTC/CNY.
_____________________________________
⚠️ This could have been the end, so to speak, to put an end to this trading idea. Further points make sense only if the dollar still exists, which is unlikely from my point of view. I just don't know what should happen. But I still outlined further points on the original Livermore pattern in this trading idea.
________________________________________
1️⃣1️⃣ BTC first major sale
– the first major sale of Bitcoin, since there is no such thing as eternal growth! Sooner or later there will always be people willing to sell; former bulls begin to sell short!
1️⃣2️⃣ Test 1 000 000$ before selling short!
– A round psychological level of one million dollars will be like the 10 k$ level for Bitcoin at one time; the price will interact with it more than once. 1 000 000$ test, followed by a powerful dump.
1️⃣3️⃣ Long-term correction near strong support 500 k$,1M timeframe
- Long-term correction - strong support 500 k$, timeframe 1 month.
1️⃣4️⃣ Flat correction – Another flat correction in a bear market, or any other.
1️⃣5️⃣ Strong support 100 k$ - Strong support in the area of 100 k$ - the formation of the bottom before a new growth cycle, it will probably already be >10 000 000$ (assuming the dollar exists at all!)
🔹 I note two global risk factors that could make significant adjustments to this global trading idea:
1️⃣ This is the government's fight against Bitcoin. I believe that in 2025-2027 Bitcoin will come under pressure from the US government, when it is already clear that Bitcoin poses a real threat to the dollar. Ultimately, Bitcoin will emerge victorious from this situation and there will be growth. The main trigger for the future bear market phase from my point of view!
2️⃣ The second threat is more significant. Bitcoin depends on electricity and miners in particular. Planet Earth is entering a cycle of natural disasters that will increase exponentially every year. Many areas in the world will become uninhabitable. Sooner or later, large miners will come under attack, what geolocations they will be and who will suffer first - I don’t know for sure! The network may not die completely, provided that the life of humanity and technology on Earth is preserved. But it is impossible to predict what damage will happen to the price of Bitcoin in this case.
⚠️ That's all for today, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit. Please analyze the information received from me, always think only with your own head!
Goodbye! ✊
Gold and BTC correlationWe can compare many charts trying to find what we want to see!
That's why I don't like patterns and correlations between assets! As we can see in the example of SPX and Bitcoin, sometimes they correlate and sometimes they go in completely different directions! We can't compare the world in 2008 and the world in 2024, there were so many geopolitical, political, natural, medical events and many other things that change the world every year! That's why I'm for analyzing the current situation in the world! I'm more than sure that in 2034 people will try to find some patterns comparing 2034 with 2024 and they will find what they are looking for! Whoever wants to see bearish patterns will find a hundred confirmations for the coming fall, whoever is waiting for growth will find a hundred confirmations for growth! And they will all look logical!
For comparison Gold and Bitcoin monthly charts! 2 times in the entire history of Bitcoin, when gold set its historical maximum and began to correct in 2011, Bitcoin needed 19 months to form a new historical maximum, rising from 4.30 to 1177
The second time this happened in August 2020, gold set a new maximum and went into correction, Bitcoin needed 8 months from August 2020 to set a new historical maximum from 10600 to 64800!
Therefore, if you need to find positive in the market, you will find it, if you sit outside the market and wait for a correction and the price is cheaper, you will find negative! But it is better to just be in the moment
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
#BTC mega bull is in its early stages!#Bitcoin appears to be entering the early stages of a potential mega bull run based on various fundamental indicators and historical patterns, which elliot wave analysis confirms.
A very easy direction can be determined by taking the CRYPTOCAP:BTC November 2021 monthly candle as a reference.
The upper zone of the candle is $61352, the lower zone is $56955, the upper zone is currently retesting.
BItcoin & ISM PMI
📝BTC cycles and economic activity cycles are surprisingly similar in many ways. Both heavily depend on liquidity to drive momentum.
👀If we look closely, the PMI cycle has been at the bottom for a long time, showing us how suppressed liquidity affects broader markets.
💡However, as soon as liquidity starts flowing back into the system and business activity ramps up, it’s going to provide a massive breath of fresh air to markets. And CRYPTOCAP:BTC could witness strong momentum.
BTC still on track for bull run till 2025Hi folks
For the last 6 months BTC has been in a sideways consolidaiton.
I believe that this consolidation was nesessary, and people where frontrunning the halving, and with the ETF people just got excited.
The market will always move to hurt the most people.
Sideways consolidation leaves those that bought BTC at higher levels in an uncomfortable position, sitting at a loss and looking at red all day, to pack their bags and accept their loss.
This is normal in every btc cycle.
Right now the RSI on the 5 day has moved above the moving average, and right now is retesting the MA - this is probably going to be your last chance to enter the final stages of this cycles bull market.
We have been making equal lows on the RSI since 4 July, showing exhaution of the bearish sentiment.
Price is currently consolidating at the previous cycle highs, while the MACD had crossed and printing green candles. This is what the start of a bull run looks like.
Coinciding with the US elections and the USA and most world central banks intending to print money (see my last post), i am fairly confident on a bullish close to the year.
Note: We are still testing the downward sloping resistance since we hit 73k
We have not made a higher high, but on the smaller time frames we are making higher lows and higher highs.
With the RSI wanting to retest its MA, we should expect some volatility - some drops in price before this higher time frame analysis plays out.
It would not suprise me for a flash crash to 60k to happen, only to be bought up and a break out of the price downward sloping trendline to be broken
NFA
Bitcoin and the global money supplyI have been speaking about the money supply recently, and how i believe that all risk assets (all assets) are a function of how much money is in the system a.k.a the global liquidity
The yellow line shows the Global money Supply, and the white and blue candles are the bitcoin price.
This has been a very interesting cycle, as everyone front-ran the halving and FOMO'd into the btc ETFs.
BTC Ran up to 73000, and then went into a 6 month consolidation.
The USD was slow to put on the breaks in COVID, but then ramped up the money printing to overcorrect is sluggish reaction to covid.
Now that we have had a moderately calm year for money printing/etc - by that i mean the US gov has held the interest rate and only JUST announced its intention to put its foot back on the gas and to quantitaive easing/money printing - the breakout that you see here is indicative of an extended bull market for risk on assets - and Bitcoin.
This coincides with the US elections, and the bitcoin 4 year halving effect that i believe has not come to its end of its 2024-2025 bull market
Stages of Bitcoin cyclesBased on history and timings the bullrun is on the cusp or has already started.
BTC September returns Here at BTC historical returns but pulled from the low to to low of each month.
BTB Indicator Back in Action!The BTB indicator is working again. Thanks for your patience.
Enjoy.
Note: The BTB even had a minor bottom signal in this range, right around July 7, 2024 (green box). Not the lowest low of the range, but just before the likely capitulatory bottom.
Bitcoin / #Russell2000 📝The index of small companies is known for being highly dependent on bank financing. Therefore, of course, he is the main beneficiary of cheaper money after the rate cut.
👀What we see about correlations, CRYPTOCAP:BTC bull markets, coincide with the movement of this index as you can see, in the green zone on the Spearman indicator,
💡We can also see that Russell 2000 is far from its ATH, which is also a bullish sign, because small companies in the stock market grow quite predictably with GDP growth and increased liquidity, and in the current state is far from overheated.
The biggest exit scam of all time is in the offingThe biggest exit scam of all time is in the offing.
Take a look at this regularly.
BTCbtc halvings and ATH breakouts.
Godspeed..
9/15/2024 UPDATE
Bitcoin consolidates at $1 Trillion Dollar Market cap currently at $1,186,671,949,244.
Current Price : 60,042.72
+ $51,752.34 (633%) since BTC's 3rd Halving.
- $8,883.37 (-13%) since BTC's 4th Halving.
+$4829.95 (7%) new HIGH since BTC's 4th Halving.
- $8713.45 (13%) since BTC's previous ATH.
Entering 2021---> Beginning of a Super Cycle?
First Decade - The Decade of Emergence
Second Decade - The Decade of Adoption
Godspeed..
BITCOIN BLUEPRINT 2.0 - MACRO MATRIXThis is a refined / updated version of my old 'BITCOIN BLUEPRINT' Macro Matrix.
I struggle with finding the right display format for the charts on publishing tradingview ideas. Here is the chart organised so everything is visible.
We are now seeing bitcoin story develop from its negative bias, into a positive one. ETFs have now been approved, aswell as other crypto ETFs. We are 150days post halvening, coming to a potential end for this period and start to move up into the upper Powerlaw band (Red).
The important note is to realise we have 365days+ of Bull Run ahead of us. Anywhere around Mid Sept 2025 could potentially signal a Peak in Price, which precedes approx 1year in declining price actin (Bear Drop).
All time highs & Lows by Cycle:
CYCLE 1: Bull High = $31.50 / Bear Low = $1.85
CYCLE 2 : Bull High = $1140 / Bear Low = $145.5
CYCLE 3 : Bull high = $19170 / Bear Low = $3148
CYCLE 4 : Bull high = $68944 / Bear Low = $15495
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Potential Forecasted Targets:
CYCLE 5 :
Bull High = $300000 - $325000
Bear Low = $58000 - $65000
CYCLE 6:
Bull High = $1000000 - 1150000
Bear Low = $300000 - $325000
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*Note - This is not financial advice, just finding from my own analysis work. The future targets based on forcasts will become more clear once previous cycles have completed. Therefore its best to focus on the next cycle, rather than jumping ahead one cycle. Seeing MIL:1M in CYCLE 6 is exciting!
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CONTEXT:
As noted prior - we are seeing dveelopments in the BTC space. Most notably, the programability of BTC. With projects such as Fractal Bitcoin, TAPROOT, RUNES, BRC20, CAT20, OPNET, OPCAT and many many others paves the way for a fresh narrative other than digital gold.
Increased Global liquidity (BTC)In anticipation of the approach of increased Global liquidity⌛️
📝No one doubts that we will have a rate cut in a week. This is a signal that the economy is slowing down and that new infusions will soon be needed. The central banks of other countries are in a similar situation.
🤔Now the question is where does the liquidity go and who is the biggest beneficiary?
💡On the "sensitivity" chart, it is noticeable that gold is in second place, and #Bitcoin is in first place. And so, if you want to hedge the risks of possible shocks, and you know that infusions will come to save the situation, your best solution is to have digital gold
If you see this scenario plays out - RED FLAG!If you notice the faster moving averages diving below the 🌕 slow moving average, be cautious. Such crossovers are strong algorithmic signals, indicating a downturn in market momentum.
Would be a shame if the Bitcoin "Super Cycle" does this right?Would be a shame if the Bitcoin "Super Cycle" does this right?
What u do then anon?
Will Bitcoin Repeat? A Theory!I really like using Heikin-Ashi candles, the MACD, and Stochastic RSI to try to find potential tops or bottoms. This can be done on any time frame, but remember: the lower the time frame, the smaller the impact, and vice versa. I used this approach to almost call the bottom in October 2022 and early 2023 (You'll find a Post on that on my X Account)
Theory:
The current market behavior seems eerily similar to the last bull run. During that time, after Bitcoin hit its first "top," it then sharply corrected by about 50%. Bitcoin has already had a 30% correction at the moment, but it may fall another 20%, meaning a price of about $34,000.
Following that correction, in the last bull market, Bitcoin received a strong push to the upside, having roughly 135% growth that, in the end, marked the cycle top. If Bitcoin corrects to $34,000 now and repeats the move, a 135% rise would place it at about $79,000.
When looking at the MACD during the previous bull market, after the first sell off, the averages began to squeeze before taking the final bearish cross. In this process, the Stochastic RSI deep-cooled off, which helped it gather strength for one last push to the upside.
Again, that's only a theory, but it's something worth keeping a close watch on. Nothing is guaranteed.
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Jun 2014The most unwanted outcome for Bitcoin's price action in the next few weeks would be similar to what happened in June 2014. The price managed to get back above the 200-day SMA twice, but eventually fell below it again, starting a bear market in 2014. I’ll be closely monitoring the 200-day SMA line in the coming weeks. Bitcoin should not close below it again!
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Dec 2019The current 6-month consolidation of Bitcoin's chart looks similar to the one in December 2019. The price closed above the 200-day SMA twice, then fell back below it. Bitcoin should not close below the 200-day SMA again in the next few weeks to invalidate this fractal. If it does, then I will be very bearish.
Bitcoin Bullish Fractal Oct 2023The current 6-month consolidation of Bitcoin's price action looks similar to the one in October 2023. The price has now broken out above the 200-day SMA. If it continues to hold above and move up in the next few weeks, the bull market will continue.
