BTCUSD Bottom & Top IdeaWe will see if Bitcoin will find the bottom like on the past 2015/2018 & top as 2017/2021.....with a 80/85% pullback retracement from the top.
BLX trade ideas
$btc Weekly Analysis Historically, price between these green lower level consolidation is a low risk buy for long term hodlers. But as you can clearly see, bitcoin is heading for lower and lower volatility until one day the trend breaks.
If you scroll right you can see the bull band and bear band come to a point.... what will happen then God only knows. If lower band breaks and we retouch the previous resistance at 7k, obviously my statement is void because my trend lines are broke.
Also the whole c0vid-crash is so weird to me, was it a red herring, does the support price achieved (around) 3/18/20 still hold value even though it could be a 'red herring'? I say absolutely it matters and we should incorporate that support price in our charting and calculations.
DISCLAIMER======= ' [ ]
My Log regression is not calculated with anything but the curve tool, please take it with a grain of salt, if i have any algebra friends with knowledge of logarithmic regression please feel free to reach out as your input would be greatly appreciated.
BTC Time Travel - Cyclical Market Peaks and RSI Analysistcoin follows a clear cyclical pattern after each halving. Historical data shows that an intermediate peak often occurs around 300 days post-halving, followed by the major peak 470–550 days after the halving.
With the halving in April 2024, this analysis anticipates:
-An intermediate peak around March 2025 (300 days post-halving).
-A major peak around August/September 2025 (500 days post-halving), coinciding with overbought RSI conditions in the upper green zone.
These predictable patterns provide a roadmap for anticipating key market moments and optimizing trading strategies.
Let’s see how it goes and if it will repeat the historical cycle.
Shiver in Ecstasy at the beauty of FibonacciIt speaks for itself, really.
Halvings, tops, bottoms, etc. can all roughly be located here, within reasonably accurate levels for price & time.
Forecasting:
>> 5.618 (time) - 4/20/2025
also shows next potential bottom fib-levels based on historic durations of bear markets...
Price level I have less certainty for....
>>>4.236 (price) - $245k
this level also coincides with breakout targets for the inverse H&S pattern formed during the 2022/2023 bear market.
BTC Elliot Wave Theory prediction for 2025Based on Elliot Wave Analysis and Fibonaci lvl-s in the past, this is the prediction for BTC till the end of the cycle.
Pesimistic : 220K is cycle top
Optimistic: 1 million
In case USA in 2025 starts money printing again like crazy, causing global inflation, or in case of a serious conflict escalation, the country can start panik buying to stop local currency devaluation, and in that case, BTC last wave (5th) can end up at 1 million per 1 BTC.
I'd rather preffere the pessimistic outcome because too much optimism for BTC means too many problems across the world.
Bitcoin has hit its bottomIt is very likely Bitcoin has already reached its lowest it will reach for this cycle. It is smart to start buying in these levels to take advantage of the consistent cyclical nature of Bitcoin.
BTC reached the local peak? 👀#Bitcoin distance from BMS
Below is the oscillator, which shows how far the price has moved away from the bull market support. Mostly when we are in the 2-3 year of the cycle, the mark on the oscillator 40 acts as resistance, which indicates a mid-cycle peak.
Can it be different this time?🤔
Let's imagine that the CRYPTOCAP:BTC ETF inflow will be greater and distort the situation, in this case, we have a second trend line that indicates a global peak, which, by the way, becomes lower every cycle, now this mark is around ~50 on the oscillator or 80k on the price chart. You can consider this mark a best-case scenario for a local peak.
💡Remember, a good investor does not rely on one scenario but is ready for any.
Bitcoin pushing past 100K?Seems like when measuring with a fib extension to the 272 that Bitcoin is in range to break 100k soon.
I am very interested to see what this means once we get there...
All I see as of now is that the low end of the range we've had the past few years could end up as the future's support.
No way to know for sure, of course..
But still price seems to be pushing to break into the 100k+ range..
We are all Satoshi- BTC wasn't created to to make you more rich.
- BTC is here to give you more freedom.
- P2P ( peoples to peoples )
- Don't look always at trends and just believe in the method and the idea.
- we are so early.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Rally Not Started Yet- Everything in trend, i used MVRV indicator ( Google it if you don't know it).
- Not a price prediction, check my older analysis for some price prediction.
- Not a date prediction, Timeline surely wrong.
- So this a post just to give you an idea of the situation.
What to not do :
- Don't listen some twitter influencers pseudo maestros traders 😂.
- Some are spreading that BTC bull market is finished or won't even happen.
- Don't follow and listen too many peoples at the same time.
- Don't forget that influencers are not traders.
- Don't forget many followers on Twitter or TV mean NOTHING!.
What to do :
- Learn is practice, so practice again and again to learn more and more.
- Teach to your friends about trading, more you teach more you learn and master trading!
- Listen to yourself (don't even listen to me).
- Keep focused.
- Be confident.
Now :
- Real Bull Market not even started.
- Be ready and DCA what you can afford.
- Don't panic for dips, buy more instead, this is crypto.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin Timeline- i always said that this bullrun looks much more as 2015 - 2018.
- 2019 - 2022 BearMarket was disrupted by Covid.
- Double top ATH (end 2021) was combined with a large divergence.
- Consider that the first 2021 ATH was the real one.
- this graphic is not a price prediction but you can consider it as almanac.
- if story repeats next ATH would be before end of 2025.
- 2026 BearMarket will back.
- Check Columns + dates.
- Compare.
- Deduct.
Happy Tr4Ding!
Retake the 200 day MA and explode up. Im looking for a retake of the 200 day MA here to confirm the pattern we saw in 2019. This could take awhile to play out, the bulk of the run may be 1st quarter 2025.
Supply squeeze and incoming rate cuts, lets go boys.
Bitcoin ATH hasn't happened yet !?CRYPTOCAP:BTC ATH hasn't happened yet ⁉️
If you don't count in fiat currency, we haven't seen the 2021 high exceeded yet (In relation to the stock market)
📝Everything is going according to plan, and by the end of this year, we will see a real ATH.
💡Also, it is clearly visible on the RSI that we will have a 3-wave cycle according to my 3-wave model, which I already talked about a long time ago.
BTC TO THE FUTURENo one is ready.
Here's a question...
When btc went from $1 to $10, it never went below $10
When btc went from $10 to $100, it never went below $100
When btc went from $100 to $1,000, it never went below $1,000
When btc went from $1,000 to $10,000, it never went below $10,000
When btc goes from $10,000 to $100,000, what will happen?
When btc goes from $100,000 to $1,000,000, what will happen?
When btc goes from $1,000,000 to $10,000,000, what will happen?
GL and HF
$BTC - Direct escalation scenarioBYBIT:BTCUSD.P | INDEX:BTCUSD | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | BNC:BLX
Traders don't judge. We prepare for scenarios with a reasonable probability.
BTC (SMA50 and FED rate)#Bitcoin distance from 50SMA 👀
This SMA has often acted as support during a bull market.
📝The rate was also lowered today by 50 basis points, more than planned, a sign that the FED sees that the economy needs more help from the regulator.
💡Such a radical step is an indicator that very soon additional liquidity will appear on the market and, as we know from previous posts, it will, of course, settle in CRYPTOCAP:BTC and gold.
Will BTC follow the giant cup & handle pattern toward 300k!?Let the TA speak for itself... the ultimate level to hold and to buy is clear...
Minimum width on Bollinger bandsCRYPTOCAP:BTC Minimum width on Bollinger bands 🤔, What does it mean?
Of course, like last summer, seasonality has played a big role - volatility has fallen.
📝We have tested the lower part of the channel and are now testing the middle line. With a breakthrough, we have an open path to the upper part of ~72k.
💡Whether it will be a breakthrough the first time depends on the selling power of Mt. Gox investors. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time and in a few weeks, we will test the channel's top and go even higher↗️
BTC long time scenariosSo after this big dip it sound more easy to look from far on the Monthly Chart.
it can show use clearly that we are still in this bear Market for a long time.
Only a good catalyst would make BTC back in power mode.
First support would be a strong bounce on EMA at 4000ish.
Second Supoort 3200-3000. FOMO rebuy.
And the last one 1200-1500. Back to 2014 ATH.
Happy Tr4Ding!
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [DAILY]As promised, post showing the 'MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC' indicator on the daily time frame for you to explore.
This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension to price and historic levels of volatile in prior cycles on the Daily chart.
Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [Weekly]Hi All. Since my prior post on this indicator, I have been asked to show this indicator with risk level colours against price. I initially built this functionality in originally (during the development of this indicator) a number of different ways but ended up simplifying to using pine scrip 'bar color' function.
This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension and volatile ranges in prior cycles on the Weekly chart. I will follow this post showing the daily chart.
Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
Bitcoin double-top at 280K and 380KUsing ghost candles from the 2021 bull-run we have replicated a similar scenario. Targets based on cup and handle pattern, followed by fibs. Good luck, traders.
