BITCOIN BULLMARKETThe bullmarket has begun boyz!
It is just the beginning. Control your emotions and focus on the targets.
BLX trade ideas
Bitcoin Long Term Analysis & Price PredictionSince 2013, Bitcoin has followed a clear trend of setting tops the year after the most recent halving event. It has also been moving in a very clear trend channel in that time.
Bitcoin has yet to experience a real prolonged bear market. My prediction is predicated on us not having a recession until 2026. If we do, the market is probably going to top much sooner and lower than this chart.
If we have a recession in 2026, I expect the price of Bitcoin to break the current trend channel and head into a lower one as per the chart.
If on the other hand we have a true soft landing, I expect Bitcoin to stay in the current trend channel and head for another post halving year top in 2029.
BTC logaritmic regresion analysisThe red lines mark the hypothetical range of maximum for this cycle.
Until now, BTC has been behaving just as expected. The green box should mark the way up.
The gray zones represent the premium and the discount regions. Up and down respectively.
Follow your own plan. Greed and fear are never good advisors.
This is just an opinion, not an advice of any kind.
Market is the only master of its actions.
A setup not seen in 1420 days - BTC to 120kLast time Bitcoin crossed the last fib circle the 2021 bullrun started.
Let's see if history repeat itself, that would push btc to the 110k - 120k range .
It might be one hell of a ride !
This setup didn't occured in 1420 days.
GL everyones.
Once is by chance, Twice a coincidence, Three times is a patternTake a look at bitcoin peaks and troughs, peaks occuring routinely circa 1 year after the bitcoin halving, the trough following 1 year after the peak. Taking this into account as having happened thrice before, im going to assume the bitcoin peak comes in around the end of 2025 give or take a few months in either direction.
BTC and Zoinky Blue 'Zoinky Blue' looks good on the BTC BLX chart. White trendlines are taken from the monthly. Until we see that Pi Cycle top, we keep pushing. On the weekly we have just created a move up from trend levels zero lag. Now we just wait on dominance to decrease and an alt season. Then once pi cycle top is in we can flip bias. Zoinky showed us the way many moons ago.
The golden ratio multiplier for bitcoinThe Golden Ratio Multiplier explores Bitcoin's adoption curve and market cycles to understand how price may behave on medium to long term time frames.
To do this it uses multiples of the 350 day moving average (350DMA) of Bitcoin's price to identify areas of potential resistance to price movements.
Bitcoin has support of the 350 day MA and the 111 day MA. Maybe bitcoin shall go to the blue line and the price is now at 94422 dollar.
Don't forget to push the like button. Thank you. Greetings.
CUP AND HANDLE ON BLX AND TOP IN OCTOBER 2025Hello
Any of my analisis goes in same place as a target for this bullrun peaks.
Bullish bullish bullish !
#BTCUSD Monthly Cycle ComparisonsAugust 2024 has produced another successful (so far!) retest of the ~60 level on RSI on the monthly Bitcoin chart. The last two cycles have seen a cycle top 16 months and 14 months after the successful retest and gains of ~28x in 2017 and ~6x in 2021.
Just an observation really and past performance is no guarantee of future results but 14-16 months from now would take us to October - December 2025.
Fun times ahead hopefully!
BTC BOTTOM, TOP and main CORRECTION indicator.BTC BOTTOM, TOP and main CORRECTION indicator
1. GMMA indicator at the level of >-31 will show us the ideal bottom on BTC
2. The time of the main BTC correction occurs when BTC - correction in bull market is red and reaches the level of 0.44-0.48
3. The correction always ends with the regeneration of the indicator to zero.
4. We have the top on BTC when we reach the trendline on GMMA.
5. In previous cycles, the level of 78.6 fibo on GMMA confirmed TOP. In this cycle, we observe the trendline and 78.6 fibo which are at different levels.
BTC cycle measurements for BREAK OUT and ATHBREAK OUT from previous cycle’s ATH price
One of the cycle events that I feel is worth measuring is the event of breaking the previous cycle ATH and staying (well) above it. And the way that I measured this in the past I overlooked an important thing. I measured only when the dates the price first hit the previous ATH, and not to the later dates of when the price actually held above it, never to see it again. I feel like measuring from halvings makes most sense, but interestingly enough measuring from previous ATL and ATH, they all overlap.
With measuring this way, and giving weight to the idea of the cycles, I am now keeping an open mind that this event might happen between later Nov to late Jan 2025. (Thinking it won't happen until March seems unlikely to me, but who knows). In 2020, it was on Dec 13th, which is right in the middle of the measurements from past halvings.
Cycle ATH Time Frame
Same here, I think Halving to ATH seems like the best to measure, but I also measured ATL to ATH, and ATH to ATH. Once btc finally breaks and stays above 69k then we can also map out that for another time frame to ATH.
Call it last cycle PTSD, but I’m not as interested in digging into the price points or percentage gains. But as an attempt, I did measure ATH to ATH percentage gains. I don’t see any simple pattern here. C3 (2021 top) does seem like a heavy under-performing outlier. With some simple theories I came to very round numbers of 150k on the lower end, 250k being hopeful, and 280k on the higher end.
I label C3 as “cycle 3” which I’m referring to the 2020 cycle. C2 is the 2016 cycle and C1, 2012. Cycle One is probably 2008 to some people, I apologize for confusion.
2025 is the new 2017This market is fractal,
just press play.
Data points:
cycle top - bottom 12-13 months
cycle bottom - pre-halving top 17 months (367% increase)
halving re-accumulation into new high 5-6 months
W-RSI oversold into overbought pre-halving, 3 periods of accumulation
post-election blow-off top
Its Time , Bitcoin 160k by March or September 2025?We are in the early stages of the next bull market. The question was never "if" but rather "when." The probability has shifted significantly to the upside in the last two months. Really, nothing much has been going on, and I’m waiting for my confirmation markers to trigger before making a technical analysis.
In my view, we are in a pretty large bull flag, and a mirror move like the one we saw from September 2023 to March 2024 could push Bitcoin to $160K by March 2025.
There are two major dates I’m focusing on: March/April 2025 and September 2025.
The clearest sign of a change in trend is that we stopped putting in lower lows and formed a triple bottom with bullish divergence on the daily chart.
The puzzle for the rest of 2024 and 2025 is not whether we will have a bull market but where and when the cycle top will occur. It's more of a question of timing, and that’s what I’m focusing on.
**March/April 2025 - Possible Top**
As you can see, since 2019, the average duration of major Bitcoin rallies has been 147 days. Even the longest rallies of 196 days would reach May 2025.
Looking at my time cycles, we also have a hit around March 2025.
The USDT dominance chart is currently in a bear flag. A mirror move similar to September 2023 to March 2024 would bring dominance levels down to the November 2021 cycle top, around April 2025.
**September 2025 - Possible Top**
For those who don’t know, Bitcoin’s last two cycles took exactly the same time from cycle low to top, 1064 days. If we overlay 1064 days from this cycle's low, it puts the cycle top in early October 2025, which is very close to my Fibonacci time date in September 2025.
I know there’s a lot on this chart to digest, but just focus on the red and yellow circles. Do you see the pattern? Every other sine wave peak is a cycle top. The next sine wave peak falls between September and December 2025.
The Chainlink fractal from last year is still playing out. If it continues, the top is projected for August 11, 2025, again very close to that September 2025 date.
KDA is also an interesting chart for me because it’s mirroring the last cycle closely, which again puts the cycle top in September 2025.
**Conclusion**
USDT dominance is in a bear flag, which is a clue. I’ve been in this position many times before, and USDT dominance has often signaled the way. If this bear flag follows through, it will trigger the first wave of the bull run.
**So, March/April 2025 Cycle Top:**
- 147-day average Bitcoin rallies
- USDT dominance chart mirror move
- A time cycle hit
**September 2025 Cycle Top:**
- Chainlink fractal
- KDA fractal
- Sine line peaks
- 1064 days from cycle low to top
If it’s March/April 2025 and we get a PI cycle cross, we’re out, that’s for sure , we most definitely not taking that chance that "this time its different"
Euphoria Blindness
40% retracement likely. $btcmaybe we push to new highs briefly but the inevitable 30% retracement is over due. I have a long position but am still relatively bearish despite this uptick. Long-term outlook is still the same. BTC to the moon
Liquidity and BTC: Symbiotic RelationshipIt is well-known that BTC is a child of liquidity, but I'm not sure how if people realize how much when liquidity is measured at Global Money Supply - USD adjusted (indicator by SirChub). The last two cycles and the current one are plotted. As you can tell, the relationship is strong. In recent years, rapid liquidity increases have lead increases in the BTC price. Will do a separate post, but what is interesting is that this cycle, is that increases in price has lagged liquidity by around 72 days. I'll hope to come up with a simple indicator to capture this soon, but you can use SirChub's indicator in the meantime.
Cheers.
Bitcoin 1 000 000$ ❚ Livermore cylinder📣 Hello everyone!
I bring to your attention my, I’m not afraid of this word, GLOBAL trading idea for Bitcoin for the decade ahead!
☝️ Now let me, as briefly but informatively as possible, explain to you how, step by step, Bitcoin will most likely come to $1,000,000 dollars, as well as what the two most serious risk factors are today ⚡️
In 1929, Jesse Livermore published this hypothetical chart (bottom right) showing “The Most Important Thing Happening to the Price of A Stock.” At the beginning of this pattern there is an expanding accumulation wedge, an upward “megaphone” (“horn”) formed from two sloping trend support/resistance lines. In the original, according to Livermore, it is necessary to take into account the volume when forming a pattern, but in my opinion, in relation to Bitcoin, it is better to take into account the spread; I removed this turkey from the final chart for the aesthetic reasons of the trading idea, so let’s study it on our own.
Having spent quite a lot of time on multiple technical and fundamental analysis of BTC, as well as taking into account trends in the macroeconomics of the United States and the world economy as a whole, I came to the conclusion that a very strong bullish pattern is forming on the Bitcoin chart - the EXPANDING WEDGE OF LIVERMORE ACCUMULATION!
This means that from the birth of Bitcoin until 2024, all these bullish and bearish microcycles are a period of accumulation of the asset!
🔹 Now briefly on key points according to the pattern:
1️⃣ All-time Low (ATL) - the minimum price of Bitcoin in its entire history, the birth of an asset!
2️⃣ ATH 2017 – First serious takeoff 🚀 Maximum of the bullish rally that ended in 2017 in the 19-20 k$ zone
3️⃣ Low 2018 – minimum correction after ATN 2017
4️⃣ ATH 2021 – a new absolute historical maximum in the area of 69k$, which only a few spoke about in 2019, including me with my trading idea Bitcoin $55 k$
5️⃣ Correction completed - low 15.4 k$ - Correction to growth to $69,000 completed in November 2022
6️⃣ The end of the bullish rally 2022-2025 - Bitcoin price 115-150 k$
- According to the graphical pattern I am considering, the long-term upward trend will most likely be limited in growth, taking into account the error on the monthly frame, by the zone of 115 - 150 k$ - At the moment, Bitcoin is consolidating above 60 k$.
The second inflation wave will force the Fed to return to tightening monetary policy after the US elections, probably closer to the second half of 2025 or even by the end of this year! Bitcoin will set a new ATH before this time and a long-term bearish trend will begin.
7️⃣ In 2027 - low correction ≈ 30 k$, the Fed is forced to give up, the war against inflation is lost. The start of an unprecedented QE... FED Money printer - brrrrr.....
- In 2027, the Fed will be forced to surrender, the war against inflation is lost. The United States will solve all its problems in the only possible way - launching a printing press and unprecedented QE. 2027 marks the start of the dollar's descent into hyperinflation.
The Bitcoin correction will end at 30 k$ +-10%, this will be the last opportunity to buy before the bull market of the century, the realization of an exit from almost 20 years of accumulation!
8️⃣ The most powerful and fastest bull rally in history! The first wave after exiting
accumulation. Hyperinflation in the USA...
- The most powerful and fastest increase in the price of Bitcoin in history! The first wave of the bullrun after exiting accumulation, within 1-2 years the mark of 500 k$ per coin will be reached. The United States is plunging into hyperinflation, the dollar is leaving the world stage, and the yuan is taking its place. Digital assets and commodity markets are growing.
9️⃣ ATH is coming soon... The second wave of the bull rally!
- Soon there will be ATH in pairs with the dollar... The second wave of the bullish rally! Hyperinflation is growing, the Fed can do nothing more - the phrase “dollar collapse” will sparkle with new colors among skeptics.
1️⃣0️⃣ Bitcoin $1,000,000 + "Bubble Peak"
– Bitcoin has crossed the $1,000,000 mark, the peak of the dollar bubble. In 2030-2035, the dollar may cease to exist as a currency in general; trading against the dollar may simply be stopped.
The value of BTC will already be measured, for example, against gold in the BTC/GOLD pair, or the Chinese yuan BTC/CNY.
_____________________________________
⚠️ This could have been the end, so to speak, to put an end to this trading idea. Further points make sense only if the dollar still exists, which is unlikely from my point of view. I just don't know what should happen. But I still outlined further points on the original Livermore pattern in this trading idea.
________________________________________
1️⃣1️⃣ BTC first major sale
– the first major sale of Bitcoin, since there is no such thing as eternal growth! Sooner or later there will always be people willing to sell; former bulls begin to sell short!
1️⃣2️⃣ Test 1 000 000$ before selling short!
– A round psychological level of one million dollars will be like the 10 k$ level for Bitcoin at one time; the price will interact with it more than once. 1 000 000$ test, followed by a powerful dump.
1️⃣3️⃣ Long-term correction near strong support 500 k$,1M timeframe
- Long-term correction - strong support 500 k$, timeframe 1 month.
1️⃣4️⃣ Flat correction – Another flat correction in a bear market, or any other.
1️⃣5️⃣ Strong support 100 k$ - Strong support in the area of 100 k$ - the formation of the bottom before a new growth cycle, it will probably already be >10 000 000$ (assuming the dollar exists at all!)
🔹 I note two global risk factors that could make significant adjustments to this global trading idea:
1️⃣ This is the government's fight against Bitcoin. I believe that in 2025-2027 Bitcoin will come under pressure from the US government, when it is already clear that Bitcoin poses a real threat to the dollar. Ultimately, Bitcoin will emerge victorious from this situation and there will be growth. The main trigger for the future bear market phase from my point of view!
2️⃣ The second threat is more significant. Bitcoin depends on electricity and miners in particular. Planet Earth is entering a cycle of natural disasters that will increase exponentially every year. Many areas in the world will become uninhabitable. Sooner or later, large miners will come under attack, what geolocations they will be and who will suffer first - I don’t know for sure! The network may not die completely, provided that the life of humanity and technology on Earth is preserved. But it is impossible to predict what damage will happen to the price of Bitcoin in this case.
⚠️ That's all for today, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit. Please analyze the information received from me, always think only with your own head!
Goodbye! ✊
Gold and BTC correlationWe can compare many charts trying to find what we want to see!
That's why I don't like patterns and correlations between assets! As we can see in the example of SPX and Bitcoin, sometimes they correlate and sometimes they go in completely different directions! We can't compare the world in 2008 and the world in 2024, there were so many geopolitical, political, natural, medical events and many other things that change the world every year! That's why I'm for analyzing the current situation in the world! I'm more than sure that in 2034 people will try to find some patterns comparing 2034 with 2024 and they will find what they are looking for! Whoever wants to see bearish patterns will find a hundred confirmations for the coming fall, whoever is waiting for growth will find a hundred confirmations for growth! And they will all look logical!
For comparison Gold and Bitcoin monthly charts! 2 times in the entire history of Bitcoin, when gold set its historical maximum and began to correct in 2011, Bitcoin needed 19 months to form a new historical maximum, rising from 4.30 to 1177
The second time this happened in August 2020, gold set a new maximum and went into correction, Bitcoin needed 8 months from August 2020 to set a new historical maximum from 10600 to 64800!
Therefore, if you need to find positive in the market, you will find it, if you sit outside the market and wait for a correction and the price is cheaper, you will find negative! But it is better to just be in the moment
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
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#BTC mega bull is in its early stages!#Bitcoin appears to be entering the early stages of a potential mega bull run based on various fundamental indicators and historical patterns, which elliot wave analysis confirms.
A very easy direction can be determined by taking the CRYPTOCAP:BTC November 2021 monthly candle as a reference.
The upper zone of the candle is $61352, the lower zone is $56955, the upper zone is currently retesting.
BItcoin & ISM PMI
📝BTC cycles and economic activity cycles are surprisingly similar in many ways. Both heavily depend on liquidity to drive momentum.
👀If we look closely, the PMI cycle has been at the bottom for a long time, showing us how suppressed liquidity affects broader markets.
💡However, as soon as liquidity starts flowing back into the system and business activity ramps up, it’s going to provide a massive breath of fresh air to markets. And CRYPTOCAP:BTC could witness strong momentum.
BTC still on track for bull run till 2025Hi folks
For the last 6 months BTC has been in a sideways consolidaiton.
I believe that this consolidation was nesessary, and people where frontrunning the halving, and with the ETF people just got excited.
The market will always move to hurt the most people.
Sideways consolidation leaves those that bought BTC at higher levels in an uncomfortable position, sitting at a loss and looking at red all day, to pack their bags and accept their loss.
This is normal in every btc cycle.
Right now the RSI on the 5 day has moved above the moving average, and right now is retesting the MA - this is probably going to be your last chance to enter the final stages of this cycles bull market.
We have been making equal lows on the RSI since 4 July, showing exhaution of the bearish sentiment.
Price is currently consolidating at the previous cycle highs, while the MACD had crossed and printing green candles. This is what the start of a bull run looks like.
Coinciding with the US elections and the USA and most world central banks intending to print money (see my last post), i am fairly confident on a bullish close to the year.
Note: We are still testing the downward sloping resistance since we hit 73k
We have not made a higher high, but on the smaller time frames we are making higher lows and higher highs.
With the RSI wanting to retest its MA, we should expect some volatility - some drops in price before this higher time frame analysis plays out.
It would not suprise me for a flash crash to 60k to happen, only to be bought up and a break out of the price downward sloping trendline to be broken
NFA
Bitcoin and the global money supplyI have been speaking about the money supply recently, and how i believe that all risk assets (all assets) are a function of how much money is in the system a.k.a the global liquidity
The yellow line shows the Global money Supply, and the white and blue candles are the bitcoin price.
This has been a very interesting cycle, as everyone front-ran the halving and FOMO'd into the btc ETFs.
BTC Ran up to 73000, and then went into a 6 month consolidation.
The USD was slow to put on the breaks in COVID, but then ramped up the money printing to overcorrect is sluggish reaction to covid.
Now that we have had a moderately calm year for money printing/etc - by that i mean the US gov has held the interest rate and only JUST announced its intention to put its foot back on the gas and to quantitaive easing/money printing - the breakout that you see here is indicative of an extended bull market for risk on assets - and Bitcoin.
This coincides with the US elections, and the bitcoin 4 year halving effect that i believe has not come to its end of its 2024-2025 bull market
Stages of Bitcoin cyclesBased on history and timings the bullrun is on the cusp or has already started.
