Bitcoin Halving Timeline- The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024, when the number of blocks hits 740,000. It will see the block reward fall from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins.
- this is a different view of using Bollinger Bands, when Bands are drastically falling, Bullrun is starting.
- i took as timelines the older bullruns. ( 21 bars - 25 bars )
- Take it easy, logic is still a theory.
- Patience will reward.
Happy Tr4Ding !
BLX trade ideas
BTC Power Law Analysis: Convergence of Slope Models
This chart shows two sets of bands overlaid. The first, with blue bands and white central line, tracksBitcoin's price movements through predefined values associated with the BTC Power Law. The code I used came from @savingface on Discord, where it was scripted to adheres closely to Bitcoin Power Law slope observed by Giovanni Santostasi, and written about on Medium. It overlays a set of bands derived from moving averages that take in all of BTC's historical price data.
Notably, when the x axis is also made logarithmic, the Power Law curve becomes linear. It is a limitation of TradingView that only the y axis can be viewed in logarithmic mode, so we are unable to appreciate the logarithmically linear growth of BTC in this chart.
Interestingly, as the bands based on moving averages become smoother with lengthening history of Bitcoin, we see a highly evident convergence between the BTC Power Law bands and the slope derived from moving averages. This highlights an increasing consistency between both models that strengthens confidence in the BTC Power Law slope as a predictor.
Traders can leverage this information to identify significant levels in market expansion and contraction. At the time of writing, we appear to be breaching the central line of each slope. My prediction is that we move up a full two lines, but at least one, during the continuation of the current bull market.
How to outpace inflation with this 1 cool trickBuy bitcoin.
Shoutout to @TechDev_52
I wanted to re-create his chart with my thoughts. Please give him a like and follow.
Only thing worth noting about these BBands is it uses EMA instead of SMA, and 50 settings instead of default. Still a great way to catch a general trend and pattern.
fib target of ~360K
Idk much about TA beyond drawing lines and stuff but...Does this Fib look promising? I'm reminded of a post by this person in 2022
x.com
The same person who supposedly predicted Queen Elizabeth's death 216 days before she died.
I learned that this person could also very likely be a complete fraud.
But we're approaching sub $80k and this fib is hitting many points.
Remember idk wtf I'm talking about.
Crypto is in a bull run now. Following with Bank of America...As you can see, Bitcoin is in a bull run because the Banks are pumping crypto. I mean if you're a banker, you know crypto is better than the dollar so why not, right? From the looks of it, bankers are going to push the economy forward for the next year before cooling off again, maybe stopping around October of 2025. Maybe a few months before or after, who knows. It's really up to them to decide when the markets should cool. Must be good to be a banker.
Bitcoin May 2023 Forecast - 12 Months of AccumulationThe chart is telling me that we could see the next 6-9 months slowly grind lower as the global economy enters recession. This will be a great opportunity to scale into long positions slowly for Bitcoin as we gear up for 2024-2025 bull run. If you can get an average price between FWB:21K - FWB:25K you will be nice and cozy in your position for the next two years. Upside target is between $100K-$250K for this next bull run. Please manage your risk carefully as this is truly the only thing that you can control.
Best of luck.
Blorenz
5th Wave Extension can bring bitcoin to 250KTo show you how an 5th wave extension looks like we need to look back to the bullrun of 2015
Bitcoin started the move in 2015 with an impulsive move into wave 1
Then a sideways flat correction ABC into wave 2
This created the Base Channel, when the price breaks out of it, wave 3 has started
Once wave 3 ended we corrected and held support on the Base channel in wave 4
Afther that the extended wave 5 begins and we create a parabola
After the buying climax we retrace back to end the elliot wavecycle
Now we come back to present to see if we can have an 5th wave extension in this cycle
The confusion part is that this elliot wavecycle there are 2 halvings included
one halving right before the 3th wave and the second one will happen during the 5th wave were are now in
Bitcoin is almost at max supply, so in the future the halving will have less and less impact on the price
This viewed from a supply standpoint, not a psychology standpoint, that will remain i guess
This view also concludes that we are in lenghtening cycles, so the price moves are also spread out in time so there's a relative belief the returns are diminishing in a time-related view
Looking back to the chart i posted, some of the moves are already set in stone
The only variabel is where that 5th wave of the 5th wave will end
We are now in wave 2 correcting to find a higher low between 22k en 20k
Wave 3 wil end around previous All Time High to begin re-accumulation in wave 4 between 42k en 65k
This chart projects a extended 5th wave to up tot 250k, real moonboy targets
For the more realistic people, this charts show no extended wave 5
The only difference is the 5th wave in comparisson with the other chart
The theory is to reach peak euphoria when we pierce 100k en come back down to start the bearmarket
To end this analysis, it's difficult to look that far in the future but it gives you an good idea for what is to come, some things are likely to happen en some things are now to early to tell
Know where you are in the cycle, there is much time to go, have patience and let the trade come to you
1340 The Bitcoin ProphecyThis is about an authentic Bitcoin halving index.
We place the prices between the halving dates at a common starting point. But what makes this index more credible? I’ve seen many similar indexes, but none of them were properly constructed. Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block on January 3, 2009. This date marks the beginning of the Bitcoin network. Everything we know today as cryptocurrency started from here. There was no exchange rate at that time. The first known exchange rate came 591 days later, on July 18, 2020. So, if we want to correctly represent the halving cycles on the chart, we need to shift this first cycle by 591 days from the other halvings brought to a common point. It can be observed that the Bitcoin price drops ~1340 days after each halving, including the genesis block.
Analysis: You can find the previous analysis at the following link:
I published the above-referenced analysis on March 23, 2021. After that, all we needed was patience. Then, on May 1, 2023, I posted the following text in the Crypto Bitcoin Hungary Facebook group: “Analysis for skeptics: On January 11, 2024 ± 2 days —> BTC collapses, and so do the ALTs.”
Initially, the following comments arrived, I quote a few:
- I see the May Day celebration went well!
- I only believe in Alarik because he is a real time traveler
-I think Biden will either die or not. Now, top that!!!
- At least it’s comforting that not everyone in foreign groups believes they are Nostradamus
- Are you some kind of prophet?
Then, as January 11 approached, the comments changed:
- Predict more for us, Master!
- I caught the peak!
- You were right
- I’ve been following this post for a long time, now I want to be one of the first to congratulate you You can seal it now, it came true. With ARK/SEC setting such a date for the ETF (conspiracy theories, anyone? ) one way or another, but I think you’ll be right. If they accept it, then either a) after one last “ETF pump” comes the increasingly due correction, or b) immediately on the “buy the rumor sell the news” basis, but you’ll be right. If they don’t accept it, probably after such a pump there will also be a significant FUD-based correction, so… you’ll be right. There’s not really a losing outcome. In any case, you seriously made me wonder whether coincidences exist, or ARK and SEC deliberately set the deadline for this day
The continuation of the analysis: Actually, since the exchange rate perfectly brought the expected fall, everyone is curious about the next date: a bigger fall is expected around December 15, 2027 . This date fits well into the almost traditional series of end-of-year seasonal rises, which is usually followed by a fall.
(enough) May Satoshi be with you!
The-Line, Bitcoin prophet
Bitcoin Market State - February 2024Current highest probability scenario for BTC. In this sequence I believe that Bitcoin is more likely to push for a liquidity sweep above the ATH till September, before plunging to the 5k-8k target (currently estimated to be reached in 2025)
In general, this is not a bull market move, but a higher order corrective structure. As before, I continue to anticipate altcoins to pop off during the bullish sequence.
Crazy analysis and forecast for bitcoin Bitcoin Chart in my expectation:
- The pattern of cup and handle:
The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern often seen in price charts. It consists of a rounded bottom (the cup) followed by a smaller consolidation period (the handle) before a breakout to the upside. The target for the cup and handle pattern is typically measured by adding the depth of the cup to the breakout point of the handle.
the 1st round target is 135000 satoshi
the 2nd round target for the main coup is 265000 satoshi
- Magenta color 5 waves:
it shows that the prices are moving in 5 wave elliott waves.
Elliott Wave Theory is a method of technical analysis that attempts to predict future price movements by identifying repeating patterns in market data. According to this theory, markets move in waves, both upward and downward, in a series of five waves. These waves are further categorized into motive waves (1, 3, and 5) and corrective waves (2 and 4).
The final target for the wave is 135000 satoshi and it matching the 1st round of the main shape formed coup and handle targets for the handle part.
- Blue color 3 Correction waves ABC:
The ABC correction pattern is a fundamental aspect of Elliott Wave Theory and can be found in various time frames and across different financial markets. Traders often use these corrective waves to anticipate potential entry points or to confirm the overall direction of the market trend.
1- Wave A: This is the first wave in the correction sequence and represents the initial move against the trend. In an uptrend, Wave A is a downward move, while in a downtrend, it's an upward move.
2- Wave B: Following Wave A, there is a partial retracement, labeled as Wave B. Wave B typically retraces a portion of the preceding Wave A but does not surpass its starting point.
3- Wave C: Wave C is the final wave in the correction sequence and typically represents the strongest move against the trend. In an uptrend, Wave C is a downward move, often extending beyond the starting point of Wave A. In a downtrend, Wave C is an upward move, again potentially exceeding the starting point of Wave A.
- Main trend in yellow will be the final correction of the blue wave
- Red color 3 Correction waves ABC:
the prices will drop down for the correction area between 27000 to 32000 satoshi and it is the start for the end of this wave by final lvls in between 218000 to 265000 satoshi.
the final red wave target is matching the 2nd round target for the main cup and handle shape 265000.
this will take years to achieve and i am writing this analysis on 5-5-2024.
Thanks for reading and remember these words if we will achieve them
best regards
The monthly on btcusd.The price confirms that it has reversed the bear market of 2022. We already knew this thanks to the analyzes of the lower time frames. With the engulfing bear not yet confirmed, the price draws a new price structure above the previous ath on a monthly timeframe, I know this is something we have already seen, but now we have the full picture and it is not something to be underestimated after we have seen on What resistance levels there was the first significant profit taking. Btc could catch its breath a bit before starting to run again, because with this confirmation which sees the sequence of highs and lows rising and the number of monthly sessions greater than the previous bear, it is only a matter of time, the price will take the direction of the rise and it will do so forcefully, when we cannot know, we have the long-term trend on our side, this would be enough even if we cannot predict the future.