2/5/25 - $algn - Dip buy, but not necking out2/5/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ALGN
Dip buy, but not necking out
- sub 20x PE for teens PE growth
- industry leader - last man standing
- nearly 5% fcf trends
- stable trends, rates probably don't help and google trends just inflected in Jan but hard to see mgmt talking this up
- good #s don't seem to be properly rewarded in this tape
- bad numbers are offering amazing buying oppty
- so i'd dip buy this. i'd expect a +ve reaction, but if doesn't perhaps there's something to do
- tough day w NYSE:UBER and NASDAQ:NXT , so i'm nursing back to health before i get back in the ring for the rest of EPS, taking the night off :)
Gl to u all
V
A1LG34 trade ideas
Align Technology, Inc.
Interesting from structuring and chart patterns points of views. That's an example of stock which should be considered for shorts. ALGN looks very weak, even considering high probability of the trendline temporarily holding the support for a while. This confluence of patterns is killing all long ideas.
ALGN Crossover Swing IdeaNASDAQ:ALGN
Crossover has triggered on the daily, which is a sign for entry on the next trading day (Monday). However, with this stock, I first want to see it clear 245. If you look left on the daily, this level was a gap and go spot, and has since been tested several times as both support and resistance.
Given that, if it opens above 245, I'll look for a pull back to that level, if it opens below, I'll look for a smaller time frame confirmation above it.
SL: 229.37 (just below Friday's LOD)
TP: 271 (Previous strong high and top of daily supply)
A safer TP would be the 265 area, which can also be a good trim level (start of supply).
Possible further headwind at 255
Max Date: Market open on Thursday the 26th
^^As always, if targets have not been reached by max date, I will exit at market open.
What I'm buying:
Not a high-liquidity options trader, but the Oct18 cons have some OI. I'm looking at a vertical debit spread, buying the 250c, selling the 260c for a debit of ~3.60 and max gain of ~6.40 (at expiration, if the underlying is over 260).
Roughly, the spread is expected to loose 1.81 and gain 3.67 on the Max Date
AI-Assisted Prospecting for Insider Trading Opportunities - ALGNInsider Trading and Corporate Activity Analysis:
Insider trading activities can provide crucial insights into a company's prospects and internal sentiment. Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) has recently made notable moves in this context:
* Align Capital Agreement & Stock/Bonds Purchase Approval: In January 2023, ALGN secured a new agreement with Align Capital, R.S. Puram, and received approval from 60% of Directors for Stock and Bonds Purchase/Share Rights. These actions indicate the company's optimism about its stock's future performance.
* $250 Million Technology Repurchase Agreement: The announcement of a $250 Million Technology Repurchase Agreement further demonstrates ALGN's confidence in its stock's value.
News Flow Analysis:
Recent news articles shed light on ALGN's current state and market sentiment -
* $250 Million Accelerated Stock Repurchase Deal: ALGN's intent to return value to shareholders reflects confidence in its stock value.
* Accelerated Buybacks After Stock Drop: This move seems to be a reaction to counterbalance a significant price decline, potentially signaling undervaluation.
* Expected Completion of ASR Transaction: The transaction, funded with Align's cash, is expected to conclude by approximately January 30, 2024.
* New Accelerated Stock Repurchase Agreement: ALGN entered an agreement to repurchase $250 million of its common stock, emphasizing its aggressive buyback strategy.
* Stock Performance After Earnings: Despite softer-than-expected earnings, market analysts retain a positive outlook on the stock.
* Piper Sandler Price Target Adjustment: While there's a downward adjustment in price target, it still suggests a potential upside from the current price.
Financial Analysis:
* Earnings Expectation (Q3 2023): ALGN anticipates a YoY increase in earnings with higher revenues for Q3 2023.
* Earnings Report Date: October 25, 2023.
* Forecasted Earnings: $2.27 per share (YoY change of +66.9%).
* Expected Revenue: $1 billion (up 12.4% YoY).
* Earnings ESP: -3.84% (suggesting bearish sentiment among analysts).
* Zack’s Rank: #2 (Buy).
* Historical Performance: ALGN has exceeded consensus EPS estimates 3 out of the last 4 quarters.
Takeaway:
Despite recent bearish sentiment from analysts, ALGN's history of surpassing EPS estimates and its strong Zack’s Rank suggests the potential for a positive earnings surprise.
Contrarian Perspective:
While ALGN's upcoming earnings report holds promise, the broader tech sector faces challenges due to chip shortages. Any adverse impact on ALGN's operations or earnings falling short of expectations could exert downward pressure on the stock. Investors should pay close attention to the earnings call for insights into business conditions and future guidance.
Long Position on Align Technology (ALGN):
* Entry Point: Current market price +/- $185.20 or below, or ideally as low as $183
* Stop Loss: Tight @ $180.31 or less, or as low as $180
* Profit Targets: $196.44 (partial/swing) / $212.31 (close)
* Time Horizon: Before end of winter, 2024 (late February)
* Probability: +/- 70% up to "Partial Profit" target (due to positive sentiment around stock repurchase, according to ChatGPT)
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ALGN Bullish Wave CountWe seem to be finishing up the 5th wave to the upside, which would lead us to a short term correction, but with medium term bullishness.
Initial correction target is $275 (wave 4).
In any case, it is still too early to determine the identity of the correction, and further price action is needed.
Align Technologies Inc. testing resistanceAlign Technologies Inc. (ALGN) presently testing a significant descending channel top, able to absorb weekly buying pressures. From here, (ALGN) is susceptible to falling back to channel support, eliciting losses of 20% over the following 2 - 3 months. Inversely, if a weekly settlement above this channel top occurs, (ALGN) will enter into a buy signal where gains of a similar magnitude over the same time horizon would be expected.
ALGN WCA - Cup and HandleCompany: Align Technology Inc.
Ticker: ALGN
Exchange: NASDAQ
Sector: Healthcare
Introduction:
In today's analysis, we are examining Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) listed on the NASDAQ, a key player in the healthcare sector. The weekly chart shows us a potential bullish reversal in the form of a classic Cup and Handle pattern that has been taking shape over the past 448 days.
Cup and Handle Pattern:
The Cup and Handle pattern is a bullish continuation or reversal pattern that resembles a teacup with a handle on the right side. It is characterized by a rounded bottom, followed by a small pullback forming the handle.
Analysis:
Align Technology's previous trend was downward, depicted by the diagonal blue dashed resistance line. However, this downward trend appears to be interrupted by a Cup and Handle pattern, indicating a potential reversal to the upside. The horizontal neckline of the pattern is located at 367.91.
The 200 EMA, currently at 348.74, is located near this horizontal neckline, underscoring the importance of this zone. The price is above the 200 EMA, signifying a bullish environment. In case of a successful breakout above the neckline, a long position may be considered. The price target in such a scenario would be 561.52, representing an estimated rise of 52.58%.
Conclusion:
Align Technology's weekly chart presents a promising bullish reversal setup. This setup, if confirmed by a breakout above the neckline, could offer an attractive long trading opportunity.
Please remember, this analysis should form part of your overall market research and risk management strategy, and is not direct trading advice.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you successful trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh
Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ALGN - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- ALGN is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
- ALGN has broken an inverse head and shoulders formation.
- There is no resistance in the price chart and further rise is indicated.
- In case of a negative reaction, the stock has support at approximately 300.
- The RSI curve shows a rising trend, which supports the positive trend.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
ALGN - Will earnings be the catalyst?ALGN gapped up strongly on Earnings beat during its last earning on 1st Feb23. It then subsequently corrected and partially closed the gap, finding support eventually @ 297 the previous neckline region (now tuned support) and also right at the 38.2% fib retracement of the big recent upswing AB.
Since it's last Earnings, the stock had been wedging in a range but what is clear is that the bogger trend is likley still on the upside as there was a Golden Cross that occured on 14 Feb (nearly 2 month ago) with both the 50 and 200 day MA sloping up now (mild slope for the 200 day MA as it will take a longer time to refect the new trend). Plus the fact that the stock has been holding above it's basing formation neckline.
Any dip back towards the neckline region (297-303) could be an opportunity to long. I suspect the coming earnings expected on 26th April could provide the catalyst to propel it above this trianglle pattern. However, trade earnings at your own risk.
If trade works out, I will be watching to scale out (partially) from 425 - 455, and manage the rest of the position with trailing stops.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!