AAPL Breaks Structure! Will the 215 Level Hold or Crack Further?🧠 Smart Money Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
* Market Structure: AAPL recently broke its bullish trendline and confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) twice, followed by a clear Break of Structure (BOS) on the 1H timeframe. Price is now in a minor bearish trend.
* Rejection Zone: Strong sell pressure came from the $225–$228 supply zone, which aligned with both CHoCH and BOS, acting as confirmation of distribution by smart money.
* Current Price: ~$217.26
Price is hovering just above the red support zone (~$215) — a key level. A breakdown here would suggest acceleration of the bearish move.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover and momentum pushing down, though histogram is flattening — potential loss of downside momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, indicating a possible bounce, but not yet confirmed.
📊 Options GEX & Flow Analysis
* GEX Map:
* Gamma Resistance sits at $225–$228, aligned with Smart Money’s CHoCH zone.
* GEX Walls:
* 2nd CALL Wall: $227.5 (34.53%)
* Highest NETGEX: $222.5
* 3rd CALL Wall: $230 (39.67%)
* PUT Support Zones:
* Strongest PUT Wall: $215 (-81.59%)
* Next downside wall: $210 (-60.42%)
* Extreme Support: $200 (-21.37%)
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 54.3 — moderately elevated.
* IVx Avg: 38.4
* PUT$ Flow: 20% dominance, leaning bearish.
* Sentiment Lights: 🔴🔴🟢 — Bearish Bias with Caution
⚔️ Scenarios & Trading Ideas
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)
* If $215 holds as support and MACD reverses:
* Entry: Above $218.50
* Target 1: $222.5 (Gamma magnet)
* Target 2: $225–$228 (Supply + GEX cluster)
* Stop: Below $214.50
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Bias)
* Break and close below $215 support opens downside:
* Entry: Under $214.50
* Target 1: $210 (Put Wall)
* Target 2: $205 / $200 (Deep put walls)
* Stop: Above $218
🔍 Summary
AAPL is currently sitting at a pivotal level ($215), with bearish momentum taking hold. If it loses this level, expect a slide toward $210 and possibly deeper. GEX positioning supports downside flow, while SMC shows supply zones were defended. Watch closely for any bounce or breakdown confirmation — this is a trader’s edge zone.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
