Daily Price Action: Apple APPL Thursday 4/17/2025In this video, we will be looking into the potential price action of AAPL.
AAPL34 trade ideas
Dollar-Yen Compression Coil: A Breakout is Brewing🧠 Why This Matters Right Now
USD/JPY has been tightly range-bound for the past 7 sessions, hugging the underside of 154.50, a historically significant resistance level. With U.S. inflation coming in hotter than expected and the Bank of Japan stepping back from policy tightening, this tug-of-war has compressed price action into a tight coil. A volatility eruption is right around the corner.
🔍 Breakdown of the Strategy
This is a volatility compression breakout setup based on the logic that low volatility precedes expansion. The ingredients:
Bollinger Bands (20, 2) for detecting squeeze zones
ADX (14) under 15 to confirm low trend strength
Price range compressing within 0.5%
Entry Logic:
📈 Long: Close above upper Bollinger Band + ADX > 20
📉 Short: Close below lower Bollinger Band + ADX > 20
Stops & Targets:
Stop Loss: Just inside the opposite Bollinger Band
Take Profit: 2× ATR(14)
🚀 Why This Works in Today’s Market
The policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan is creating a classic fundamental standoff, but the price can't stay neutral for long. Volatility is compressed to its limits. When the breakout comes, it's likely to run fast and clean in the direction of the imbalance.
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This isn’t just a chart pattern — it’s a recurring market phenomenon. With PineScriptAI, you can adapt this same logic to GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, or even gold compressions with zero manual tweaking.
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AAPL Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16AAPL Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a synthesized analysis of the AAPL data and the five model reports:
──────────────────────────────
SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI Report – Observes a slightly recovered 5‐minute bounce but a generally volatile, declining daily trend. – Notes bearish technicals (price below EMAs, RSI recovering from oversold levels but MACD still below signal) and mixed sentiment (max pain at $202.50 with heavy put volume). – Recommends a trade on the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and proximity (–2.60% from current price).
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Highlights AAPL trading below key EMAs with persistent bearish momentum on both short and daily timeframes and a downtrend of –17% over 30 days. – Points out oversold conditions on the 5‑minute chart with continuing bearish pressure on the daily charts, alongside caution from negative news. – Chooses the $190 PUT as the best blend of risk and reward given its liquidity and technical setup.
• Gemini/Google Report – Emphasizes AAPL’s price below intraday and daily EMAs, with the short-term bounce near the lower Bollinger Band offering a minor contradiction. – Underlines strong bearish sentiment supported by high VIX and negative news, while noting resistance at the call side. – Recommends a bearish pick – the $187.50 PUT – though with a similar rationale as the others (i.e. trading just out‐of‐the‐money to capture a move).
• Llama/Meta Report – Notes bearish indicators including price under moving averages, low RSI, and MACD below the signal line. – Recognizes key support and resistance levels (supports near $194 and resistance near $197) and the opposing pressure suggested by max pain. – Ends up favoring a moderately bearish setup with the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and risk profile.
• DeepSeek Report – Reviews the technical and sentiment picture and concludes a moderately bearish position, underscored by negative news and broad put interest. – Emphasizes that a break from near-term support (around $194) could steer the price toward the $190 area. – Also recommends the $190 PUT, noting that its setup offers a reasonable risk/reward profile.
────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement: – All reports agree that AAPL is trading in a bearish environment overall, with price below key moving averages and a downtrend on daily charts. – There is a common focus on the options chain, where puts at or below $190 are highly liquid and carry significant open interest. – Every model, despite minor nuances, leans toward buying a naked PUT as the trade idea for this weekly options expiry. – All analysts recommend an entry at market open.
• Disagreement: – One model (Gemini/Google) slightly deviates by suggesting a $187.50 PUT as an alternative to $190, while the majority favor the $190 strike. – The exact profit target and stop‐loss levels differ somewhat between models, but all align on the general risk controls and short-term nature due to weekly expiration.
────────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED TRADE
Overall Market Direction: • Consensus is moderately bearish. Despite a brief short-term bounce noted on the intraday charts, the dominant trend and negative news sentiment favor further downside.
Recommended Trade: • Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked PUT option on AAPL • Expiration: Weekly (April 17, 2025) • Strike and Price: The $190 PUT (with an Ask around $0.83; it is about 2.60% below the current price) • Strategy Rationale: – This strike is liquid (high volume and open interest) and is supported by the bearish bias from momentum indicators and negative sentiment. – Although the premium of ~$0.83 is a bit above the preferred $0.30–$0.60 band, it is justified by the sharper risk/reward setup in this environment. • Entry Timing: At market open • Proposed Risk/Reward: – Profit Target: Approximately a 50% gain on the premium (target near $1.25) – Stop-Loss: Approximately a 50% loss on the premium (stop-loss near $0.42) • Confidence Level: 70% • Key Risks and Considerations: – A brief intraday bounce (short-term oversold recovery) could push prices above support, triggering the stop-loss. – Any unexpected news or a reversal in overall market sentiment may rapidly alter the risk profile given the short-dated expiration. – Monitor price action closely at open, as weekly options are particularly sensitive to early volatility.
────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "AAPL", "direction": "put", "strike": 190.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.25, "stop_loss": 0.42, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.83, "entry_timing": "open" }
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Apple Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025
- Apple reversed from resistance level 210.00
- Likely to fall to support level 190.00
Apple earlier reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 210.00 (former support from the start of March), 20-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the impulse wave (1) from February.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous medium-term correction (2) from the start of April.
Apple can be expected to fall to the next support level 190.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 170.00.
SPX and AAPL. A breakdown of key levels and potential trades.If this is a repeat of 2020, then I am going with the bulls on this. In this video I walk through what I am seeing in the overall market and how I chart my stocks. I have personally been in and out of trades and it was chipping away at my profits, so it was time to reset! The best way for me to do that is to to walk through my charts, update my levels as needed, and remember that my plan is my plan bc it works!
Apple – More Pain to come? Apple’s NASDAQ:AAPL chart right now? Honestly, it’s a mess. It’s one of those setups where you can’t confidently say much with conviction , but one thing feels clear to me: it should go lower before it gets better.
Zooming out to the 3-day timeframe , you can spot something interesting: the downtrend from 2022 to 2023 looks almost identical to the one we’ve seen from July 2023 to April 2024 — same structure, same slow bleed, and almost the exact same duration. That kind of symmetry doesn’t happen by accident.
After that, we had a massive rally from April/May 2024 , but now we’re already seeing a sharp retracement — down over 35%. My take? We probably need one more leg lower to really shake things out before Apple makes a meaningful move higher, maybe toward $250–$260 .
To get there, I think we still need to retest the $160–$150 zone. If we break below that and head toward $120, then we’re in real trouble structurally — that would shift the whole outlook.
Yes, the recent bounce from the VWAP level was clean , and it looked strong — but I wouldn’t rule out one more flush before we get the real recovery. Apple is in no-man’s-land right now, and until we hit key levels or reclaim broken structure, it’s caution over confidence.
AAPL should you wait out the chop? Still overall downtrendWhen in doubt, leave it out < I remember being in a training class for my first job out of college and my teacher said that. She was talking about dress codes, and that if we had a doubt like...is this work appropriate, then the answer was no. This quote has stayed with me and even proven useful in trading. Right now we are in indecision on a lot of names. No clear uptrends, and still most stocks remain in overall downtrends.
Most of us are impatient, we want to catch the bottom, even though we know when we wait for a clear direction the profits flow effortlessly.
It's ok to put on a small position, but just know where we are at in the trend and range.
What's your position on AAPL for the next few days or weeks?
For me, I am really leaning sideways, but am testing small positions. It is important to wait after the morning noise dies down before committing. In fact, yesterday I broke my 11am rule of no decisions or trades til after 11am, and closed a put on another name. Then within the hour, the position flipped. Talk about regret. What was worse was that I had hedged it the day before with a call, and closed the call at a loss too. Amateur moves, but hey, new day and fresh eyes will make a killing.
Apple will decrease more ? I reckon Apple stock will drop to around $175, based on my gap trading analysis.
AAPL moves in steps of 20% and sometimes 30% Many stocks move in steps thats why trendlines work. But in some stock the steps are not very clear, But Apple the steps are very clear.
Here the price rejected by trendline and could be great time to short and also completes 20%
The steps are caused because stock holders expect that return before they sell off
Apple ($AAPL): Shares Jump After Tariff Exemption on ElectronicsApple Inc. (AAPL) experienced a significant rally on Monday, climbing as high as $212.94 before settling around $206.05 as of writing, reflecting a 4.5% intraday gain. The spike followed the U.S. government's decision over the weekend to exclude smartphones and other electronics from the latest round of tariffs on Chinese imports. This move provided relief for tech companies like Apple that rely on global supply chains.
As of 3:38 PM EDT, Apple shares Volume reached 258.63 million shares, indicating heightened investor interest. The favorable news also triggered substantial profits for derivatives traders. One bullish options trade worth $5 million, opened on Friday, was reportedly valued at around $14 million by Monday morning—a 180% gain as per Reuters.
According to Capital Market Laboratories CEO Ophir Gottlieb, the trade may have been a calculated bet anticipating favorable policy moves affecting Apple or broader China-related tariffs.
Technical Analysis
The 2-day chart shows a strong bullish reaction from a major support zone near $172, where the price rebounded sharply following the news. The current price at $206 is trading slightly below key moving averages, including the 50-day at $231.81, 100-day MA at $228.36, and 200-day MA at $205.91
Price action also broke above a previous resistance area of $196, turning that level into new support. If momentum holds, Apple could aim for a move toward the $260.10 recent high. However, technical structure suggests a possible pullback before further upside continuation. Overall, the rebound and volume surge indicate strong buyer interest in the wake of the tariff announcement.
AAPL can hit $210 next week. LONGNASDAQ:AAPL
With Trump giving an exemption to phones and chips, AAPL can go back up to $210-$220 level in a short period of time.
Golden Rule: Charts always predict the newsI've reviewed a recent trade I was in and a useful lesson we can learn from it.
AAPL Technical Analysis (Trading Perspective)Price Structure:
AAPL has bounced from the recent low around $168 and is now climbing within an upward price channel. Price is attempting to reclaim the psychological $200 level, now acting as short-term resistance.
Trendline Channel:
A bullish channel has formed from the April 9th reversal, and the current price is near the midline. Price is showing consolidation just below a previous resistance level at ~$200.32, which aligns with the upper gamma levels.
Key Support/Resistance Levels:
* Resistance: $200.32 → key gamma and technical resistance
* Support: $185.29 (confluence of HVL + breakout area)
* Critical Support: $168.13 → the base of recent bounce
Volume & RSI:
* RSI is trending upward but starting to curve slightly at the 60 zone, showing bullish but cautious strength.
* Volume during the bounce shows aggressive buying but has tapered off recently — signaling a possible pause or retest before continuation.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish (watch for $200 breakout confirmation)
💡 Options GEX Analysis (For Option Trading)
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Levels:
* Highest Positive GEX / Gamma Wall: $200
→ A breakout above this may lead to a gamma squeeze toward $205–$220.
* Resistance Levels:
* $205 (12.8% GEX8)
* $220 (35.5% / 2nd Call Wall)
* Put Walls / Support:
* $185.29 = HVL (04/17 expiry)
* $180 and $170 have layered PUT GEX walls acting as support (–22% to –25%)
IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 73.1 (elevated — premiums are rich)
* IVx avg: 68.5
* Put/Call Skew: Puts at 33.2% dominance, indicating hedge pressure, but not panic.
* Sentiment Flags: 🟢🔴🟢 → mixed signals: volatility + hedging pressure but potential support at $185+
🔁 Trading & Option Strategy Suggestions
📊 For Stock Traders:
* Bullish Play: Watch for breakout and retest above $200 → Target $205, $220
* Bearish Play: Rejection at $200 + breakdown below $185 = possible fade toward $175–$168
* Neutral Range Play: Between $185 – $200, consider scalping intraday using EMA/VWAP confluence
🧠 For Option Traders:
* Bullish Strategy:
* Debit Call Spread: Buy 200C / Sell 210C (cheap gamma play on breakout)
* Short Put Spread (Cash-secured): Sell 185P / Buy 175P if price consolidates above 190
* Bearish Strategy:
* Put Debit Spread if price rejects $200: Buy 195P / Sell 185P
* Avoid naked calls — IV is high, and premiums are inflated
🧭 Final Thought:
AAPL is at a decision zone with significant option market activity clustered around $200. A breakout here could trigger a squeeze toward $220, but failure may bring a retest of the $185–$180 range. The GEX layout shows dealer positioning supports upward movement above $200 but is still hedged underneath. Be nimble — wait for confirmation, and don't chase unless the breakout holds.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
Apple - no useful dataThis now is just speculation, since we do not have any data to work with. The market is confused, big boys are confused, everybody is confuse. But atm we have a slightly news leaded more bullish sentiment, after China gave their first living signs friday and yesterday saying they are not fans of the tarrifs from every side. Which I coun`t as slightly more bullish than what a Trump related person said the Tech tarrif excemption was only temporary. Which means most of the world and China do not like tarrifs and I do think China will drop or at least sink their tarrifs to a minimum, if the US will drop their tarrifs. And in my opinion Trump´s brain is still working because the only rational decision is to completely drop the tarrifs. Of course not immediatly to first get deals done.
What Trump did not expect is that people not only don´t want to buy stocks, but they also dont want to buy bonds from the US. Which makes the Tarrifs a lot worse.
APPLE: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
APPLE
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy APPLE
Entry - 198.05
Stop - 191.79
Take - 216.53
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
$AAPL This is going to burst... $220 target.NASDAQ:AAPL : Expecting a move to $210 easy off the $200 zone then to the target of $220. Lots of testing in that area. I think $210 is a clear "gimme." Not even close to overbought, with the volatility this can ramp up. Technically look great to me. Push up to 200EMA/SMA located above $220 zone ($221 and $228).
wsl.
APPLE On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for APPLE below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 198.05
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 214.26
Recommended Stop Loss - 187.76
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Apple gap fill potential - Grok Ai sees option activity Grok ai analyzed the option chain for me:
Call Volume Strike Price Put Volume
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* 155.00 *
* 160.00 *
* 165.00 ****
* 170.00 ******
* 175.00 *****
** 180.00 *******
* 185.00 ****
* 190.00 *****
***** 195.00 ***
********* 200.00 ***
****** 205.00 *
********* 210.00 *
***** 215.00 *
*********** 220.00 *
****** 225.00 *
******************** 230.00 *
** 235.00 *
*** 240.00 ***
* 245.00 *
***** 250.00 *
Ai found lots of in interest upward call strikes.
Gap, on the chart may be the thesis.
Get apple right, and youll understand qqq , spy, dia, its so big.
Fundamentally, Im not a long term fan of apple, but cant ignore the mag seven large caps giants.
AAPL LTF Wave count ( 40 years!)
My long term wave count for apple completes. It has got a mind-blowing and exponential growth over the 40 years and has it come to THE end? Elliot waves can't tell really because wave analysis can always yield multiple scenarios based on waves and sub-wave counts, that's why Elliot wave is an amazing tool regardless you agree or not.
I always prefer not use log chart when wave counting because it will distort the trend line which is important for wave analysis.
My conclusion: APPL has either finished its long-term ascending wave or it still has two more huge waves up till a few years later.
Apple respite before sell offApple bounced straight of major support at circa $170, with the SMI now also rising we could see a few weeks of short term respite before continuing down to test the major support line again. Also notice a backtest of the rising trend at around 21%.
Long term view is still bearish, don't think we've seen the yearly bottoms yet. Will be interesting to see how this plays out especially with bonds.
Apple, Will we see 150$ ???Hello traders, Hope you're doing great. What are your thoughts about
AAPL ?
Our last analysis went exactly as we predicted and hit our target; But what's the next target ?
For upcoming weeks, I expect an upward correction at first and after that I expect another SELL OFF situation in the market that causes a huge drop in stock market, my first Target is 157$.
This post will be Updated.
Trade Safe and have a great week.
APPLE Best buy opportunity of the last 6 years.Back in August 02 2024 (see chart below), we introduced this model on Apple Inc. (AAPL) that had high probabilities of success at predicting Cycle peaks:
We may have not hit $280 but $260 is close enough especially if you are a long-term investor that values buying low and selling high.
Now that the price has corrected by -35% and just hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 10 years (since July 2016), it is time to revisit this macro-model once again.
As you can see, -35% corrections have been present on every Cycle since the January 2009 bottom of the Housing Crisis. The pattern that the stock follows is very specific and it starts with a prolonged correction, the Bear Cycle essentially, which is a lengthy correction phase, such as the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 2015/16 China slowdown and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Then a very structured uptrend phase starts in the form of a Channel Up that leads the market to its first peak, followed by a shorter, quicker correction phase that tests the 1M MA50 and rebounds. The rebound is the final bull phase of the Cycle, usually strong and sharp and leads to the eventual Cycle Top and then starts then new Bear Cycle (prolonged correction).
Right now the current 4-month correction is technically, based on this model, the new shorter correction. Being more than -35% in size, the last one larger than this was the previous short correction of the last Trade War in October 2018 - January 2019 (-38%).
The similarities don't stop here but extend to the 1M RSI as well, which just entered its 25-year mega Buy Zone that has been holding since December 2000 and the Dotcom Crash! In fact the last time Apple's 1M RSI was this low was in June 2013, which was the bottom of the 1st short correction on our chart.
This remarkable symmetry just shows how similar the current phase is with its previous ones and if the symmetry continues to hold, we should be expecting a strong recovery to start. Even if the price makes a slightly deeper low as -38% (like the January 2019 bottom), we may still expect the minimum rise that it had all those years shown on the chart, +145%, which translates to a potential $390 Target long-term.
It is in times like this, that patient long-term investors filter out the news noise, make their unbiased moves and maximize their profit.
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AAPL - Strong Support 164NASDAQ:AAPL Strong Support at 164. If fails to hold that level, It can go down to 129.
