ASML Tariffs Cleared, Buybacks Underway, Undervalued & Poised for Recovery
1. Tariff uncertainty resolved: With the recent EU–US deal, semiconductor equipment exports—including ASML’s lithography systems—are exempt from tariffs. This eliminates a significant uncertainty that had weighed on sentiment and could have lowered the company margins.
2. Strong buyback momentum: ASML is well into its €12 billion 2022–25 share repurchase program. As of mid‑July 2025, the company has already spent approximately €5.8 billion on buybacks. Recent weekly repurchases of about €61.5 million show continued execution of capital returns even in uncertain markets.
3.Valuation gap remains wide: Analysts’ 12‑month price targets average around €758, with highs exceeding €950 and some models suggesting a fair value up to €1,000+ per share. Even using conservative multi‑year EPS and P/E assumptions, the stock could justify pricing near €900‑€1,000.
4. Dividend adjustment likely muted. Today is ASML’s ex-dividend date. While share prices typically dip by the dividend amount, the simultaneous positive news on tariff exemptions may offset or overshadow that mechanical adjustment.
5. Recovery phase underway: With tariffs off the table, aggressive buybacks reinforcing shareholder value, and structural demand for AI‑driven chip production intact, ASML appears set to enter a recovery phase. The current stock price—well below both analyst targets and implied fair value—is likely discounting risks that are now being managed.
ASME How do you guys think it will evolve once the EU-US trade agreement is concluded? From what I see, they will reach a deal of reciprocal tariffs of aprox. 15%, lower than current ones. I expect ASML to retest the 700 euro threshold.
ASML wth is going on with this stock ? Never seen a company going down with such good earnings… tesla had his worst earnings ever and it went +6% back then 😅🥲
ASML ASML, Europe’s largest tech firm, reported a 23% year-over-year increase in net sales to €7.7 billion, beating expectations by €200 million. Earnings per share came in at €5.90, topping estimates by €0.75. Bookings rebounded strongly to €5.5 billion €1.3 billion above forecasts—including €2.3 billion in orders for EUV systems. Gross margin remained stable at 54%, supported by deliveries of High-NA machines and favorable upgrade sales.
Management maintained its 2025 outlook, projecting around 15% revenue growth and a 52% gross margin. However, a more cautious stance was taken on 2026, with CEO Christophe Fouquet citing growing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, cautioning that next year’s growth is no longer assured. Concerns over tariffs particularly affecting exports to the U.S., imported components, and possible retaliations have added to the uncertainty.
Despite solid AI-driven demand and an anticipated 30% year-over-year increase in EUV sales, ASML’s visibility into customer investment plans has weakened. China accounted for 27% of system sales, trailing Taiwan’s 35%. As external risks grow and growth forecasts narrow, investors are increasingly focusing on potential policy impacts rather than just EUV momentum. Still, most analysts maintained a positive long-term view following the earnings call
ASML this stock is doomed till 2028. Guess it won’t reach 700€ anytime soon anymore. We are at market ath, when we get a correction or whatsover this trash is gonna drop the hardest
ASML Tariffs Cleared, Buybacks Underway, Undervalued & Poised for Recovery
