CHVX34 trade ideas
Chevron Projected to Rise Around 8%, Classic Elliott 5-Wave1) Price has been trading within an Uptrend Channel, since Sep 2012
2) Price was resisted against 128.00 from 2013 to 2014, with an attempt to break the Channel Trendline on 2014-01-30. However this turns out to be a false break, with price trading back into the Uptrend Channel
3) We note a classic Elliott Wave developing, from 2014-04-14 to 2014-07-15, with a 2 clear impulse waves and 2 corrective waves.
Given the cluster of Support buying at 128.00 levels, it is projected that Price is ready to breakout above 132.00 and trade higher, forming the next impulse wave.
Theoretical Price Projection:
a) 139.76 (Assumption: Wave III = Wave V)
b) 147.02
Upper Channel Limitation: Any upward move will most likely be bounded by the Upper Channel Line
Time Limitation: The projected strong upward price movement should happen within 12 Trading Days, after price closes above 132.00
chevron breaking out of a 3 year 3 month consildation rangeOn 5/19/2008 chevron put in a key swing high ( resistance level) at 104.63. Shortly after the swing high Chevron Sold off and found support. After the bounce of support the market got very choppy and on the close of the weekly candle stick of 10/18/2010. Price of the close of the candle stick was 84.55. Then market started to break out to reach the swing high of 104.63.
Now I want to quickly point out that it took from 10/18/2010-3/21/11 which is a little over four months for the market to reach the swing high. That range of 84.55 to 104.63 is 20.08 cents.
After the market reached the 104.63 price level on 3/21/11, it took until 5/20/13 for chevron to go up another 20.08.
Also not that it has stayed in a 23 dollar range for the time period between 3/21/11 to 6/9/14 ( depending if this week candle stick closes above 127.91) That range lasted 3 years and almost 3 months of consolidation.
If the market can close above the 127.91 support level, look for the market to either pull back and bounce off of the 127.91 support level or the market may have enough momentum to not see a pull back and shoot up 20 dollars.
CVX breaks downThis week CVX broke down from its retracement. On Tuesday there was a shooting star, followed on Wednesday by another candle forming the double negative of a tweezer top with dark cloud cover. After bad earnings on Friday it created a breakaway gap. The last three down moves (head and the two shoulders are around $12 each time in about 25 days. I am looking for a move in the next 25 trading days to $110.
Head and Shoulders TopThis week I will post two Oil stocks (CVX and TSO), both appearing to meet the requirements for Head and Shoulder tops. You may want to put them on your watch list.
This pattern is the easiest recognized, but can turn into an Acc/Dist pattern if the classic rules are not met. Beyond the H & S pattern he first rule is an uptrend line is broken as this did in June. The most important rule is that the volume decreases from the Left shoulder to the Right shoulder using CMF or OBV. Next the neckline breaks and then a retrace occurs to the .500 Fib. I also like to use the 200 day SMA (I first began TA after reading Joe Granvilles book and use his rules for the 200 day, (and yes I know he fell out of favour). CVX appears to be meeting all these requirements although it may still go to the $120.00 level. I believe it needs to confirm the pattern by re-breaking the neckline. As earnings are reported on Nov 1st it may move sideways before going down.
Remember predicting a three day weather forecast is 25 times more accurate than a three day stock forecast.
$CVX: When It Gets Here, Buy It Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) continues to fall, even as the markets float higher. The stock has collapsed from a recent high of $126.50 to a low today of $115.32. As it falls, look for the master support level of $114.85. Should that level hit today or tomorrow, it is a long swing trade with an upside bounce target of $120.00.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
Chevron fundamental and technical data look goodChevron is one of the shares, that I would trade frequently because of the good fundamentals. We currently have a good long opportunity with risk/reward ratio of about 1.5.
BUY Crude Oil (OIL), SELL SHORT Chevron (CVX)How is it that crude oil is so far out of sync with the price of energy stocks?
This chart shows you very clearly how they move together, but at times they reach extremely far apart. After an extreme, they come back together in a dramatic fashion.
I can't wait until Tradingview has ratio charts so you can see what the ratio chart looks like.
The lift in crude oil futures today and the drop in CVX could be the beginning of the closing of this very wide spread.
I believe the upside here is 10% over the next month with a downside risk of 5%. Since this is a pairs trade, don't just cherry pick one side of this trade because I don't know which side of the trade will generate the profit. It could be that CVX falls and OIL stays the same.
Technical Tim
Wed, Oct 10, 2012 12:40AM EST
