DAX1! trade ideas
FDAX UpdateIndicators are neutral but trending up. I guess this afternoon rally is an attempt to set up for a pump and dump tomorrow. No reason to rally on Powell, TLT is red and bond yields are up for basically every time frame.
The algos still need to make their money, I guess. My assumption was whipsaw until CPI next week anyways.
DAX 4 HOUR TECHNICAL SAY : it can go down to 15200 area dax in last week go up and touch fibo 161% (see green fibo on chart ) now it can go down to 15200 area , we have important trendlines and fibo 61% there
advice = sellstop in 4hour chart last low and SL on last high + buy limit in 15200 area
if you have old sells, dont fear be patient 20-30 day ,,,near 15200 hedge your sells and never never close hedge buys frist (main trend is up)
ALERT = TECHNICAL SAY ON BIG BAD NEWS dax CAN GO TO 14600 AREA TOO but i advice 90% looking for buy in next 3 year
good luck
FDAX UpdateMFI overbought heading into next week. Possible gap down Monday for the US market.
Don't really recommend holding a long position over the weekend in this whacked up market anyways, lol.
Powell speaks Tues premarket, no idea if he pumps or tanks the market. Stupid people are hard to predict.
FDAX Bull Flag?If the other half of dumb (Powell) and dumber (ECB) does the same thing tomorrow morning then we're looking at new ATH for FDAX. It'll be tough to short anything for a while.
Pay attention to what FDAX does premarket because you know they dictate the morning gaps, though probably not tomorrow due to META earnings.
DAX This Resistance makes all the differenceThe German stock index DAX broke today (and so far stays ahead of the Fed) above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). On our last analysis two weeks ago, we pointed out that a Channel Up similar to November's would form and its break-out will deliver the next move:
As you see, the price traded exactly within that short-term Channel Up and delivered excellent scalping opportunities to us. Right now it is still intact and we are still scalping, only willing to commit to the direction on the next break-out.
A break below it should be enough to target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as it happened on December 28 and then rebound for another medium-term bullish leg. If the Double Top Resistance breaks first, we will go long regardless, targeting the top of February's Resistance Zone (15730). Further break will extend our selling to the 16300 All Time High.
On the downside, if the price closes below the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50, we will buy again at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up (blue) near the 13900 Support (December 16 Low).
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dax 1 hour ; all pro waiting for dax crash to 14700we have 2 open gap on CASH PHISICAL DAX INDEX must fill soon or late
if you have old sell you must close all near 14700 area and pick buy and hold 1 month to high
FOR NOW = put sellstop in low and pick buy above green arrow ,,,dont close buy soon,,try hold them to 15800
ALERT= AS I SAY BEFORE : WEEKLY CHART TECHNICAL SHOW 19000 AS DAX TARGET ,,,,IT CAN FLY UP ,,,,BE CAREFUL FROM SELL
alert= trade dax and index are very complex need minimum 5 year practice on demo account ,,,if you dont have it,dont trade it in real account
Goodluck
DAX vx SP500: Is DAX highly over valued?By comparing the charts of US indexes vs European indexes we usuallly find pretty much the same patterns.
However there is something that really caught my attention, compare the monthly chart of sp500 vs Dax:
DAX is only 6,54% from all time highs of 2022
SP500 is 15,40% from its all time highs of 2022.
NASDAQ is 28,45% from it's all time highs of 2022
This difference is obviously linked to the different policies of central banks, however I wonder if such a huge difference is justified.
German economy has been highly struck by energy prices and German inflation is still 8,5% vs 6,5% in the US.
Dax 4 hour =double top pattern,,,, pull back to 14800 possible for sell we are waiting pinbar on daily or 4h chart
AC indicator on 4hour going to signal sell ( if high not break
in 14750 I will buy and hold it 30 day to 15800-16000
good luck
ALERT=trade Dax and other index need minimum 5 year practice on demo
DAX Futures ( FDAX1! ), Daily Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: DAX Futures ( FDAX1! ), Daily Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 16274
Pivot: 13943
Support: 11829
Preferred case: Looking at the Daily chart, my overall bias for FDAX1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 16274, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 13943, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
DAX Pull-back to 4H MA200 likelyThe German stock index (DAX) is showing signs of exhaustion of the 2023 rally, following our strong buy signal last week. The 4H RSI hit and got rejected on the 84.600 Resistance level, which is where a Channel Up started on November 11 2022. The Channel Up made one last High before it broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and started a correction (short-term) that hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, we believe it is worth to start building up sell positions for a medium-term pull-back to the 4H MA200. Keep in mind that the strongest long-term buy is when the 1D RSI approaches its oversold level of 30.000. That could happen, if DAX closes a 1D candle below the 4H MA200, near the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in early October.
The medium-term target is the 15500 - 15700 Resistance Zone of February and the long-term the All Time High of 16300.
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FDAX UpdateOverbought on RSI with MFI divergence. Also overbought on daily for both.
US market appears to be in a melt up but this scares me. Europe dictates gap direction, might be wise to day trade and buy the morning dips. Not really sure. Hard for me to hold anything overnight when FDAX is overbought
DAX 4 hour = as i predict in low dax reach 15000i close my buys now and looking for sell now
ALERT = daily chart TECHNICAL SAY DAX CAN GO TO 19000 IN 2023 SO BE CAREFUL FROM SELL
above green arrow after pinbar apear on 1h or 4h or daily chart we must buy and hold it 10-20 day
if you have old sell against my analyse and advice you must hedge them near 148000
good luck
ON DAX AC INDICATOR 4HOUR IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT SO MONITOR IT
FDAX 3hr chartI posted a daily chart earlier, but someone wanted to see a 3hr so here we are.
Overbought on 3 hr with MFI divergence. Testing a major resistance just like everything else. It really looks like tomorrow is the make or break day for everything, lol.
FYI, I never trade DAX, just use it for gap direction for the US market. It will NOT matter tomorrow though because gap direction will be dictated by CPI and unemployment numbers, not by the Euros.
Are Dax, Nasdaq Close to a New Collapse?EU and US futures are consolidating the gains of the beginning of the month.
The exuberance was mainly extinguished by the interventions of two members of the Federal Reserve board.
Mary Day of the San Francisco Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed reiterated that the campaign against inflation is proceeding without hesitation, and the minimum target is a rate above 5%, from the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.
This is also supported by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The same line is supported in Europe.
"Interest rates will still need to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels tightening enough to ensure a timely return of inflation to our medium-term target of 2%."
This was stated by Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB governing council, speaking at a conference organized by the Riksbank on the independence of central banks.
Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles, the indices are exhausting their strength, but are still supported by the rise in Chinese stock markets due to the reopening after so many months of containment of the virus.
The recession, which will lead to a drop in profits, is not yet discounted by the markets.
Recession Is Coming
We will therefore see the real collapse of the market, and we must not be fooled by the increases at the beginning of 2023.
EU indices will hold much better than US indices as the ECB is proving more dovish than the Fed.
Furthermore, high inflation in the EU is destined to collapse quickly, thanks to the fall in gas prices.
The ideal instrument in these cases is the VIX, also known as the fear index, which uses options on the S&P 500 index as underlying, with which it has a negative correlation: if the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down and vice versa.
Natural gas
As predicted in previous articles, the natural gas crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short and long term profile of the market right now. In the long term, the situation is interesting.
Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers.
In the short term, the situation is negative.
The European danger has vanished, with full inventories in the EU thanks to a very low demand for gas, due to anomalous heat, savings at both an industrial and retail level, and the energy transaction underway.
In summer, however, the situation could be different, with possible difficulty in filling the inventories.
In the USA, demand is low due to the weather and that is creating a domestic excess supply - negative for prices - which adds to the doubts regarding the reopening of some export plants, which have been offline for some time and which contribute to the oversupply.
The Freeport factor will be decisive, one of the most important export plants which should reopen next week. Also the weather could continue to be an issue, as cold temperatures do not seem to arrive at the moment.
In Area 4, 3.50 I still expect a technical rebound from the gas, with a target of 5.
Crude oil
Negative start of 2023 for oil prices due to concern from COVID-19 infections in China.
While prices will suffer in the short term, the situation is positive in the long run for two reasons.
The price cap, although not penalizing for Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil - very positive for prices - and to a collapse in Russian oil production.
Chinese demand for oil, held back by COVID-19, will restart in 2023 thanks to the easing of restrictions at the end of 2022.
All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as there is a shortage of oil.
I remain positive over the long-term with a $85 target.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Bad period for the stock destined to continue
There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to a weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) is increasingly threatening.
Also, Elon Musk is increasingly distracted by Twitter. The statements from Musk, who says that he will leave the post of CEO Twitter once a replacement has been found, were of no use.
As written early in 2022, according to my model, the stock was worth $170 and was already very expensive at the beginning of the year.
In light of the latest data, I am updating my tesla fair value at $85, a level where I will start thinking about buying the stock.
Disclosure: I hold a Buy position in natural gas, VIX, and a US stock with big upside potential. For information on my services and investment strategies, you can write me on my TW