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#202510 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market had big swings up and down last week but went nowhere after Monday’s gap up. Can’t be anything but neutral. The bull channel is valid until broken so bulls remain in control. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Above 23500 we could go for 24000 next week. Market is still euphoric given the probable spending spree the new government wants to do. It’s still being front-run since there are still couple of hurdles before that bill is approved, so bulls better be cautious buying new highs on the hopes of higher ones. New highs were immediately sold lately so I guess we continue with the deeper pullbacks for bulls to buy. I’d be very surprised if we see an acceleration of this trend and a break above the channel. More likely is some more sideways to down until we hit the lower trend line again. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears selling new highs and making decent money but that’s about it. Bull channel is alive and well and we have not closed a daily bar below the daily 20ema since first trading day of 2025. Bears had a really strong bear day on Tuesday but the follow-through was even better, so they are burned again if they did not take profits the same day. Bears can start yapping again once we have a daily close below 23k, until they I will mainly look for long scalps. Invalidation is above 23500. short term: Neutral around 23000/223400 and only interested in strong momentum trades. Longs above 500 or around 23k. Shorts only on another strong rejection above 400 or very strong selling below 23k. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed last weeks guess of a contracting range. Market is still too bullish for that. Added new bull channel.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-03-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another ath but two rejections for 300+ points. I give bulls one more try at this and if we pull back below 23300 again, this likely sells off into the weekend. Past 3 Friday’s we chopped into the weekend after a gap down. Right now is not the time to have bigger positions over the weekend when orange face is at work. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls want 24k now. They are high enough that they could get there but the upper bull trend line is still resistance and every time we touched it in the past days, we sold off for couple hundred points. Bulls know that and since we closed high, I doubt many want to buy above 23200 and hold those over the weekend. Weekly close above 23000 would be very good for the bulls though. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Bears need the week to close below 23k, no ifs or buts. A head & shoulders breakdown would be my preferred structure tomorrow, with a measured move down could get us to 22500 but we would need a news bomb I guess. Technically chop between 23000 - 23500 is most likely after a wild week. Weekly close couple ticks below 23k. Anything below 22900 tomorrow is a bear surprise and could go much lower then. Again, my bullish targets were all met with 23k and this channel can’t go on forever but until it’s broken, bulls are in control. Invalidation is above 23600. short term: Neutral around 23200/300. Bearish only below 22900 or around 23500. I’d like to see a lower high tomorrow and then some really big bear bars and a bear surprise. More likely is chop though. Next days we could get some news that the current government might not be able to get enough votes to get the gigantic special budget approved. If so, could trigger a mini-crash. This market is up here on the hopes and dreams of German stimulus. Not saying it won’t happen but front-running goes horribly wrong sometimes. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying from 23130 was insanely strong on US open but so was the rejection. Both trades were good if you are comfortable with reversing positions. You could have bought at previous support and sold at previous resistance. So both were amazing trades and not the hardest to take.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-03-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very strong selling followed by very strong buying but bears defended where they had to. Another one for the 50% retracement if you go from ath down to 22348, the 50% is around 22849 and market stopped the bounce pretty much there. Now we have a big gap up from 22357 up to 22707 but I doubt this will stay open. My bias is bearish with stop 23091 but for now we can’t expect market to drop below 22300 since the buying down there was so strong. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22000 - 23351 bull case: Bulls reversed 78.6% of the selling almost to the tick. I let you figure out which glorified pattern that is. I do not care about them nearly as much as others. I only care about the 50% and then maybe 30% or 60% to determine how strong the pullback is. Bulls showed strength by rallying for 500+ points and that naturally makes me think the downside is limited for now. Problem for them is, the rejection from 22351 on Monday was so strong that they likely won’t buy high again and wait for pullbacks. Since bears also showed strength, we will likely continue sideways. Bulls need something above 23091 to retest 23355 or go higher. Invalidation is below 22300. bear case: Bears had an amazing small-pullback-bear-trend but bulls bought heavily the lows on the news that the EU will do a new fund and Germany will also likely do new debt to finance defense and infrastructure stuff. Does it matter? Not really. Clear descending triangle for us to trade until we make higher highs or lower lows. We are above the 50% of it and I favor the bears to retest at least 22400 tomorrow. So shorts close to 22800 are reasonable. Bears also have going for them, that lately not-bad news got bought but then reversed to the downside, which I believe suits the sell-the-rip market we could be in. US indexes will likely have more downside over the next weeks, since this whole move down could be seen as a bigger W1 on the weekly chart for sp500 and nasdaq. Dax will follow them, just takes a bit more time I guess. Plan for this week is still to hit 22000 and then some strong moves down to 21000 over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 23091. short term: Neutral around 22700. Bearish above 22800 and bullish below 22450. Strong moves to both sides will likely result in sideways movement and not a strong breakout to either side. My thesis is still that Monday was a higher high major trend reversal and we could have seen the highs. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Small pullback bear trend from EU open 22955 down to 22357. It was so strong, you had to be short. 5m 20ema held like a champ. 22350 was previous support and once market stopped making new lows, bears needed to reduce risk and take profits. Could you have anticipated that the bounce would be good for 500+ points? Hell no. If you took a long, good for you. To make a living from trading you don’t have to be perfect or amazing, you just have to be good and that meant, taking reasonable profits on shorts and not watching them disappear on the bounce.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-03-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 791 points from low to high today. The selling stopped exactly at the 50% retracement and this is the line in the sand for my outlook. We have two very big patterns now possible. We either melt much higher to 23800+ or we do a proper correction like the US markets but we very likely won’t continue sideways around 23000. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22500 - 24000 bull case: Bulls are likely in do or die mode. They melted higher but if they can’t stay above the important breakout price 23000, this could become a bull trap/higher high - major trend reversal and we go down from here. If we stay above and correct sideways some around 23000, we will likely retest 23350 tomorrow and could get a second leg up to 23800+. The bull channel is valid until broken, so respect it. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Bears need to break below the bull channel around 22300. Everything else is just neutral, since we are in such a strong bull trend. They have to stop new highs or we continue up. What are the odds that today was a climactic bull trap at the end of this bull trend? I don’t know right now but I have given my invalidation prices, so mark them and look what the market does when we get there. My wave thesis was already done at the previous 23k but we can obviously have another break above and another rally higher. Market is beyond overvalued but who cares if it’s only going up. I start favoring the bears if we can get below 22900 because then the odds that the highs are in become much bigger. Invalidation is above 23400. short term: Neutral around 23k. Bearish below 22900 for more downside to potentially 22300 again but this is much lower probability. Bulls are favored to retest 23350 or get another leg higher. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long below 22600. Market found no acceptance there and the gap to Friday’s close stayed open. Congratulations if you took it and banked 600+ points.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very erratic price action the past week. Monday and Tuesday closed below the mid point of the daily range, just to have a 2% up day on Wednesday, followed by retest of the lows and closing almost exactly at the middle of it all. Bulls keep making money buying the dips and bears are not strong enough to even get to 22000. Can only expect more sideways price action inside the triangle. If anything I’d say the bulls are favored to retest 23k since we are staying at these highs and above the daily 20ema. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Not much changed to last week since we have only made lower highs and higher lows. Bulls want to retest 23k and since they are producing prominent tails below the bars that dip below 22300, they are slightly favored vs bears that hope for a test of 22000. 22500/22600 is the middle of this range and the worst place to trade. If bulls come out strongly on Monday, I will heavily favor them to trade up to at least 22700. I have no opinion on targets above 23k. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears finding no acceptance below 22400 and Friday has touched the daily 20ema and reversed strongly. They can not hold short if we continue above 22550 because we could easily do 22700 or 23000. Only question for me is, do they try to force another lower high and continue with the contraction or could we retest 23k and maybe then some? I don’t know and if anything I favor the bulls since the bears are just not doing anything strong besides that one Wednesday where we sold 569 points. Targets for bears remain the same. Daily close below 22300 and below the daily ema and bull trend line opens op possibility for 22000. Zero doubt that we will see a bounce at that price. I don’t see this dropping meaningfully unless we get some really really bad news. Technically it’s clear as day that only bulls making the easy points. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral around 22500/22600 and only interested in strong momentum trades. Shorts above 22700 and longs below 22400. Play the triangle until clearly broken. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed previous bull channel and added triangle.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
DAX futures after Trump - Zeleansky clash meetingMarket Analysis: Anticipating March Volatility The market is demonstrating superior collective intelligence through recent price action. The EUREX:FDXM1! index has established balanced profile patterns over several consecutive sessions, indicating a lack of directional conviction among participants. This consolidation phase suggests market participants are in a holding pattern, awaiting catalytic information before committing to directional positions . Friday, February 28th marked both month-end rebalancing and a critical geopolitical event as markets positioned ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting. The subsequent contentious Oval Office exchange between the US and Ukrainian presidents on February 28th has created significant geopolitical uncertainty . This high-stakes diplomatic confrontation, which ended without the anticipated minerals agreement being signed, has introduced a new variable into market equations . Projected Market Impact Early March is likely to experience heightened volatility across multiple asset classes: - **European and US Indices**: The breakdown in US-Ukraine relations and resulting implications for European security policy will likely trigger significant price swings in both US and European equity markets . With European leaders now forced to reconsider their defense strategies in light of potentially diminishing US support, market participants must reprice risk premiums accordingly . - **Commodities**: Oil and gold NYMEX:CL1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! markets should see amplified movement as geopolitical tensions typically drive safe-haven flows and energy price speculation . - **Currency Markets**: The dollar CAPITALCOM:DXY is positioned to strengthen against major currencies as uncertainty typically benefits the world's reserve currency, particularly when European geopolitical stability comes into question . The DAX futures, currently showing mixed signals from analysts with projections ranging from 17,500 to potentially higher levels by year-end, will likely experience increased volatility in the near term as markets digest these developments .
EUREX:FDXMH2025
by ruby_kinetix
2025-02-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000. Important this day was. Bulls followed-through as expected but came short of 22900 and a new ath above 23000. Again we have clear invalidation prices for both sides. Above 22750 bulls could try again and continue inside the current bull channel. Below 22550 the bull channel is broken and 22500 has to hold or we flush to 22400. Below 400 is 22k and I do think there is a decent chance we could close February below 22000. Be prepared for some EU trade war news and this could become a risk-off event tomorrow. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22100 - 23000 bull case: Was this a lower high major trend reversal? Bulls keep the bull channel alive if they stay above 22550ish. If they do, they remain in control and we could try another run at 22900 or a new ath. Biggest problem for them sits in the White House and we can expect some trade war related news tomorrow, which could be a big trigger for another sell-off. Invalidation is below 22550. bear case: Bears have a good setup to crash this down. Double tops on multiple time frames and a news event that could be a huge risk-off event. I have given invalidation prices for both sides, set up notifications and trade accordingly. Invalidation is above 22750. short term: Neutral until prices break above or below my given targets. I dream of a February close below 22000. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long above 22600 as given yesterday. Was good for 280 points.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22100 - 23000 bull case: Bulls give up above 22600 and we sold off on every touch since Thursday. If bulls want to retest 23000, they need to break strongly above 22600 and trap bears who are selling that price for 4 days now. The daily chart still looks bullish enough that bulls remain in control. We are above the daily ema, above the bull trend line and we still have a bullish gap from 22000 - 22300. Plan for tomorrow is to either get a strong breakout above 22600 to buy or look for longs around 22400 and continue with the higher lows. Invalidation is below 22300. bear case: Bears need lower lows again or bulls will become more aggressive for a ath retest. If 22600 continues as resistance we will likely go down to 22400 and there we will likely get a decision tomorrow. If we print higher lows again, the next touch of 22600 could get the breakout. Below 22400 the bull trend line could have become weak enough that we might do lower lows again and test down to 22200 or 22170 (last weeks low). Bearish plan is to wait and see if 22600 is still resistance and join the bears down to 22400 but keep a tight stop. I won’t bet on lower lows. Invalidation is above 22650. short term: Neutral. Clear plan given, mark the prices and set up alarms. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 22600 was the trade that worked since Thursday. Buying the EU open was also decent since 22300 has been support since Globex open on Monday.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: How fitting that the week where I gave up on bearish targets, that we start to see big selling again. Bears certainly surprised with the intensity all of a sudden but it’s the nature of markets that highs get retested. After such a climactic move up, it is not wise to get uber bearish on the first sign of bear strength. Market has moved down very quickly now to important magnets and until they are clearly broken, I will not bet on a breakout below. I stop with the xetra update because I always questioned the decision to do xetra analysis as well. Is this really worth it because of the gaps or are futures just as good? What shattered my case was the futures 23000 touch and strong sell-off. You can not convince me that xetra is more important to most algo’s after this. No more xetra, only futures. If you do not trade futures, calculate the difference between eurex dax futures and your symbol and you are good. It’s not that hard and if it is, hit me up and I explain it to you. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls see this is a pull-back in a bull trend, down to obvious support. The last time we dipped to the daily 20ema, we rallied 1800 points afterwards. It’s hard to imagine this going to 24000 but I think it’s more likely than continuous selling through the bull trend line and daily ema and 22000. Too much support and important magnets to not expect a bounce. Targets for the bulls are 22400 and then 22600 which is the 50% of the bear leg and then probably already 23000 again. It’s likely that the market has to move sideways first before we can go higher. Right now we are still in a strong sell-off where the market is not touching the 4h ema on the pull-backs. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears are in a spike and channel bear trend and until bulls can make higher highs above 22500 again, bears are in full control. Problem for their case is, who is willing to sell at multiple support in hopes of further downside after such a big rally? We will likely get our answer early on Monday. I think bears are absolutely not favored here and will give up quickly if bulls start the week strong. What I do think is that any upside will probably be limited to around 23000. For now I need to see how Globex opens and if we bottom out around 22200 or need to get to 22000 before we can bounce. Below 21900 I think the odds favor a flush down another 800-1000 points. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral but if bulls show strength, bullish for retest 23000. Problem is that we could go down to 22000 as well and right now I don’t want to risk 300-400 points on longs. Below 21900 this could drop much much lower though. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted current bull channel.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Biggest bear bar since November and we are close to the elections. Market printed 23000 to the tick and now what? Tops usually get a retest, which can be a higher or lower high. Given today’s strength and the timing of this move, it’s tough to hold any bigger bias for the next two days. current market cycle: bull trend (was trading range before and that was obviously wrong, sorry about that) key levels: 22500 - 23200 bull case: As long as this big bull gap down to 22000 stays open, bulls are fine. If bears close it, market turns neutral for the time being. We have elections on Sunday and at this point it’s probably a bumpy ride for the next two days. 22500 should be huge support for the bulls or we flush to 22000. Xetra high was 22935 which is too close to 23000 to not expect it to get hit. Can bulls buy the lows at 22500 in hopes for an immediate reversal? I doubt it. Too strong and we will probably need some time around (sideways movement) 22500 first. The big bull trend line is somewhat 250 points lower and if we get there, I expect huge buying. My bias is still bullish since I expect bigger upside from here than downside. Invalidation is below 21950. bear case: Bears had a huge day and closed below 22500, which is really god for them. Their next target is the big bull trend line around 22250 and if they have enough momentum, they can overshoot down to 22000. 22000 is also the 50% retracement of this recent bull leg, the gap close from last Wednesday and the daily 20ema. Big magnets there but I am cautious after big up and then big down. What I absolutely can’t see for now is anything below 21950. If we get down to 22000, we will probably see big buying for a retest of the highs. Invalidation is above 23200. short term: Neutral and cautious. Big up, big down, big confusion. If bears get follow-through, they have big magnets below but I highly doubt the bull trend line will be broken. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Sell anywhere. Market did not touch the 10m 20ema for 500 points down.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Nothing bearish happening, so max bullishness. I scalp long until it stops working because are obviously not. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22500 - 23200 bull case: Bulls want 23100ish and keep going. Since no one is taking bigger profits and bears not doing anything, why would it stop? Scalp long. If we break outside the bull channel, which is likely in Globex session, wait for a pull-back to maybe 22700 and a good bull signal bar before longing again. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears not doing anything so let’s skip this. Daily close below 22500 changes that again. Invalidation is above 23200. short term: Can’t be anything but bullish. Goes only up. Scalp long until it stops. 23k next and likely 23100/23200 because xetra will likely overshoot somewhat. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the Globex low since we could not even touch the close of last week. Market printed 1 decent bear bar on the 15m tf and that is obviously not enough to exit any long.
EUREX:FDXS1!Long
by priceactiontds
FDAX : Limited upside before a multi-weeks bearish correction DAX Futures Technical Outlook (Current Level: 22,350): Limited price/time potential before a high probability multi weeks bearish correction Technical Analysis : - Current price at significant daily resistance (22,350/22440 area) - Weekly and monthly momentum indicators showing extreme overbought conditions (a very high probability that a reversal is quite imminent) -A breach of today's critical support level at 22,220 would be a sufficient technical trigger for the start of the multi-week correction** Alternatively, an aggressive entry below 22335 with a tight stop loss Minimal Price Targets : High probability target (1-2 weeks): ~21,580 High probability target (4-8 weeks): 20,850 Extended target (4-8 weeks): 20150 (-10%) Next resistance zone: 22,580-22,660 Potential Fundamental Catalysts : - IA sector revaluation post-Deepseek - German elections with far_right eurosceptic Afd ---gaining traction in the polls - Geopolitical tensions over Gaza - Trade tariffs Today's cooler CPI print is being overlooked by markets - this could be the short-term catalyst that triggers the bearish shift
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by radiantjeremy
2025-02-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I do think the profit taking is around the corner but for now that does not help. Longs are paying, so join the bulls or wait for bigger bears to appear. No more bullish targets from me. 20k was a bubble but 22k is beyond everything. -30% would bring us to 15% and that was the beginning of this bull trend in 2023-10. No matter how you draw the patterns, we are above all of them or at the very top. Looking for shorts does not help when the market goes only up. Join the momentum or wait for the profit taking to begin. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22000 - 22300 bull case: Bulls have measured move up from last weeks low and there is a bull wedge line going up to 22300ish. No idea if we can get there but until we have a daily close below 20k, bulls have all the momentum on their side to continue. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears need to break below many bull trend lines and ema before this can start selling bigger. If bears could prevent the current gap from 22118 to 22180 tomorrow, that would be a start. Retesting 22000 would be the next step but for now the bull trend line is intact and we can’t expect it to break all of a sudden. If bears somehow get below 22k, which I doubt, 21850 is the next bigger target. Invalidation is above 22300. short term: Neutral. Can’t hold the bearish bias when market is only going up. Can this be the top and we go down from here? Yeah sure but the same logic was true at 20k. Picking tops is a bad game. Need to have a daily close below 22k before we can look for lower targets. Right now bulls are still creating gaps below and that’s bullish af. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-11: I need to stop playing the top picking game. This trend is so beyond anything. Disgusting also. Big bull wedge on the daily chart has to break down and if we can close below 21900 again, I will look for lower targets. I still think this is a blow-off top and will be the exhaustive end of the trend but that believe does not help when the market is only going up. 19600 is my minimum bear target for this year. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open and holding because the low 21969 held, which was only couple of points below the Globex low.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong bull trend from the open and I now have several measured moves that lead to 21800 and 22k. It would be surprising if bulls could not get it tomorrow or Friday. Can only get bearish again below 21550ish. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21550. key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls continue with higher highs and higher lows but the highs are barely higher. They will likely get another ath over the next 2 days but the upside will probably be very limited around 22k. Pullback has to stay above 21550ish but best would be to stay above 21600. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: If bulls can not claim 21800 tomorrow, I do think we have a decent chance of a big reversal but for now, bears have completely given up and they need a bull trend line break to turn market neutral again. Invalidation is above 22100. short term: Bullish for 22k if we stay above 21550ish and if we get 21800 tomorrow early. 22k is possible over the next 2 days. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying anywhere I guess.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Gap is still open but bulls making higher lows. Can go both ways tomorrow and it will probably be another news-driven impulse. 50% retracement is 21560 on my chart and we are close to it, so don’t try to be clever and think you know which way the breakout will happen. Odds are even. Wait for it an hop along. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but failed to close the gap. I don’t think we have seen strong selling at 21600 but since we have not moved down either, bulls chances of a breakout are as good as those for the bears. Bull targets are 21650, then 21755 and finally 22000. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: I won’t make stuff up here. below 21550 bears are favored again but for now they are obviously not doing enough. First target is 21500 and then 21400. If 400 won’t hold, we quickly move down to 21200 again. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying the double bottom 21400. Big bars with huge tails below at a big round number. Just buy it.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Huge gap down and bulls tried their best in making this an endless pull-back. Bears defended the gap to 21800 and even the Globex gap to 21700. As long as that stays open, bears can dream of a second leg down or at least retesting the lows. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls bought the lows and closed the day 200 points higher. We have a clear bull wedge/channel up and as long as we don’t break below support, bulls can have an endless pull-back and move higher. Problem for them is that they were to weak to close the gap to 21700/800. Bulls now need to stay above 21450 and continue higher. If they poke couple more times at 21550, it will likely break and we move quickly higher. Bulls are not favored though. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears kept the gap open, Hooray. They need to break below 21450 and the bull wedge. Targets below are today’s open price 21398 and then 21200. My daily chart has a third bear target at 21080 and xetra closed 21428. The daily 20ema is there and a big open bull gap. Futures came very close to it, so it’s possible that this was all the bears get for now. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 21400 was decent for many scalps.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much news. Trade the bull channel until broken. I won’t try to pick the top again. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls next targets are 21800, 900 and the next big number 22000. We are in a clear bull channel and bulls are in full control. Longs closer to the 1h 20ema are printing, so trade them until they stop working. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears doing absolutely nothing right now. Below 20400 we would have clearly broken out of the channel and best bears could hope for then is sideways to down movement to 21200. For now I don’t think you should even thinking about shorting any of this. Invalidation is above 22100. short term: Bullish on pull-backs and target 21800 and then 22000. Still only scalps though. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buy anywhere.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears fumbled again, who could have known. Can’t hold the full bear mode when seeing this price action. Weak wedge rally up to ath now with decent sell spikes in between. Don’t try to pick the top. Let the market show you clearly it wants to go down again, like it did on Friday. Until then, long pull-backs because market is just going up. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21300 - 22000 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and print 21700. If bears step aside enough, we could actually get to 22000. The bull wedge is the pattern to trade until clearly broken. I doubt bulls will let this drop below 21500 before we see 21700. My second target is 21800 and last one is the obvious 22000. No idea where this might turn again but for now you should not think about bigger shorts. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears sold new highs but that’s about it. The bull wedge is broad enough for both sides to make money. Will we see bigger selling above 21600 tomorrow? I doubt it. Bears can only really think about bigger shorts if we break below 21500. If you have too many bearish thoughts, just look for more time at the daily dax xetra chart. Should go away then. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Bullish on pull-backs and target 21700 or higher. Only scalps though. I still think this will crash at least 20% over the next months but for now I am not willing to risk being wrong about the top and having to scale in 500-1000 points higher. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying any dip or selling any new high. Sounds way easier than done but that’s what happened today. Market respect the trend lines perfectly. Show those charts to people who say technical analysis is whatever.
EUREX:FDXS1!Long
by priceactiontds
2025-01-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Perfect selling down to 21200 but the pull-back is tough for bears. Futures would need to immediately sell-off from 21500 to keep the bear case alive but above 21520 we print a new ath and maybe some more. Only below 21400 one can be bearish again. current market cycle: bull trend but could have ended today. market needs to print a lower high around 21500 and sell-off hard again. key levels: 21000 - 21700 bull case: Bulls prevented a really bad day and closed the gap at least in the US session. Very important day tomorrow. Ff they can keep it above 21400, we could see more upside but I doubt it will get much beyond 21644 if we get there at all. On the daily tf it looks like a perfect retest of the bull trend line we broke above last Wednesday. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: Bears have to keep this below 21500 or we see more upside. RTH close was 21392 and futures open has to be bearish af to keep the bear case alive. Got nothing more for the bears here. Either continue to the downside now or we will stay at the highs for longer and likely make new ones. Invalidation is above 21500. short term: Neutral. Need to see futures open and if bears can keep it below 21500. Bullish above and bearish only below 21400. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Selling before EU open or buying EU open. The open was neutral enough to not short the hole and longs were fine once we strongly broke above 21300.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bull channel/expanding triangle, doesn’t matter. Trade it until clearly broken. No one knows how high this can go and I said, until we clearly see consecutive big bear bars, bulls are in full control and you should look for longs instead of shorts. Market is beyond overvalued and overbought but that does not matter for now. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls are in full control. No one know’s where it stops. Look for longs. Bears have spikes and that’s it. Bulls are buying everything and just melting this higher. Invalidation is below 21000. bear case: You can not start looking for shorts until bears have closed a 1h bar below 21000. This is probably true for most traders. Are you 1 in a million and can make money trading both sides on this? Good for you but for the rest of us, we better come with easy to follow, tested and profitable strategies and try to survive. Trend is your friend. Don’t fight it. Was I wrong about the bearish outlook? Timing-wise, yes. But that will never stop me form changing my mind and trade what’s in front of me. I am here to make money and not to be proven right. Invalidation is above 21500. short term: Bullish until bears do more. Trade the channel. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying big previous support around 21000.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bull channel is what you should trade for now. I do think the top is near though. My plan for tomorrow is to see if market stalls more around 21170/21200 and if bears come around to short this down to 21000 again. There I expect bulls to appear again and try another higher high. The bull channel is valid until broken and if bears could break it, first target would be 20850. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20900 - 21200 bull case: Bulls want to continue inside the bull channel. That’s it. Look for pull-backs to long if bulls print a good signal bar. 21200 is my max target though, so I don’t expect market to go much beyond. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears need to break the bear channel. That’s also everything there is to this right now. Bulls are in full control until then and you should look to long this much more than shorting. It’s overbought, climactic, bubbly, yesyesyes and all of that. Does not matter one single bit until we clearly see much bigger selling pressure. Invalidation is above 21250. short term: Neutral in the middle of the channel but otherwise bullish until bulls clearly lost interest buying above 21000. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. Bears need to do much more before I want bigger shorts again. trade of the day: Buying 21000 has been profitable 3 times today. Trade the channel.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Strong by the bulls to keep the Globex gap open to 20326 but they failed at finding acceptance above 20420. We continue sideways until one side clearly gives up. We are still close to the middle of the bigger triangle so shorts need a stop 20622 and that’s far away. I still slightly favor the bears to rather trade back down to 20200ish than above 20500. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20200 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to stay above 20300 and continue upwards to test 20500. They are in control as long as the Globex gap stays open. Bulls are also above most important 20ema and that means they are in control of the market. Their issue is, that they can’t find more buyers above 20400 and all daily bars since last week have decent tails above them. Bulls will only try so many times before more give up and want to short lower again. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears have a decent head & shoulders pattern that could break down over the next days. The measured move target is around 20150 which was Monday’s low. First target for them would be to close the gap to 20320 and close a 1h bar there. Bulls have bought every touch of the 1h 20ema and until that changes, we continue sideways to up. Problem for the bears is, that we could go up to 20500 or even 20550 to hit the bigger bear trend line. That stop is far away and likely a reason why bears scalp out near support. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20300 - 20400. Bears need a strong move below 20320 and bulls need to find acceptance above 20420. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts. In above 20450 and out where market shows support (currently 20350). trade of the day: Buying close to the Globex gap was good for many longs. Also selling close to 20500 was a no-brainer since market went mostly sideways before and we had huge prior resistance 20500 and above.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Can’t write much new stuff. Still neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bulls were not strong enough to close the gap to Friday’s close but bears were not strong enough to keep it below 20300. We have a clear triangle on the daily tf between 20150 and 20500 and I do expect the market to continue inside for 1-3 more days. Very strong US session close and above 20300 I expect follow-through to 20400/20450ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20100 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to close the gap to 20350 tomorrow and then more up to 20400/20450 and test the bear trend line. I highly doubt they can break above and test 20500. We stayed above the big bull trend line and the daily 20ema, so bulls did what they had to do. Market is contracting and that means a couple more days of sideways price action before another big breakout. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears tested the bull trend line but quickly gave up trying to push this below. Best they can get now is sideways and staying below 20350/20400. If they can manage, we can poke more at the bull trend line until one side gives up. My medium term bias is bearish, so I expect the triangle on the daily tf to break out below. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bearish below for 20150 and bullish above for 20400. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Took most off at 20180 and want to short again closer to 20400/20500. trade of the day: Selling the open because the selling pressure was very strong. Market then went sideways too much around 20200 and taking profits was reasonable. Buying the breakout above 20230 was also decent.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds