2024-10-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax futures
comment: A daily bear bar closing on it’s low. What a time to be alive. Kinda in the middle of the channel now, which is a bad bad place to trade. Both sides have valid arguments. I would rather sit on hands and only scalp on momentum than initiate trades around 19600.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19500 - 20000
bull case: Bulls can be happy a decent dip came which they can now buy. Will they buy 19600 or will they wait? I am not sure but would you really want to buy 19600 now in hopes of a climactic continuation above 19800? Hard to make that a good trade. I do think the rally was fueled by momentum, that is gone now.
Invalidation is below 19500.
bear case: Bears finally got a decent day and they want/need follow through tomorrow. Obvious targets to hit next are 19350ish (breakout price) and the potentially much bigger support at the daily 20ema and the bull trend line around 19300-19350. If we get there, I highly doubt bears will push their luck and we see another strong move up. On the 1h tf, the first target for tomorrow is the open of the week 19536 and that is also where a smaller bull trend line is. Can be bigger support and bears could also give up there. Hard to make a bigger bear case for now but it’s worse for the bulls to blindly buy this just because we dipped some.
Invalidation is above 19800.
short term: Bullish but a bit more neutral right now, until we know where the next support is and bulls come around again
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 19750 was not the hard part about the short trade but holding through bar 38 - 52 was. Had to get short bar 32 or latest 33. Can you hold afterwards? Tough. Open price was an obvious magnet when we hit 19650, so do you want to hold through a 60 point up move when you are short? I did not. Could have gone short below bar 57 but then you see the spike and hope for more and when you hold, market reverses bad again and you are underwater or break even at best. Then you do what? The 15m 20ema was decent to short then but all in all tough because market wanted lower but also produced many big tails below the bars that touched 19600.
