Potential Short Play : Exelixis Inc Exelixis has come to a stop after many months of upward movement, it is now consolidating around 52 week highs, and I am looking for a short opportunity on a large pullback.
Reasons:
- Class A bearish divergence on the weekly & daily chart (RSI, MACDL) + Acc/Dis (Daily only)
- Accumulation/Distribution line has dropped below the 9EMA on the daily chart. The past
two times this occurred the stock had a +10% pullback to the 20EMA
- Overbought on the RSI, and has crossed below the 70 line after being above it for a significant
amount of time. The past two times this occurred the stock also had a +10% pullback to the
20EMA
Going short with a break of the ascending trend line, with a price target around $19.30 or the 20EMA.
E2XE34 trade ideas
OPENING: EXEL NOV 18TH 11 SHORT PUTHere, I'm looking to sell a touch of premium in an underlying that has both high implied volatility rank (99.6%) and high background implied volatility (99.2%).
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 70%
Max Profit: $85/contract
Buying Power Effect: Varies by Broker.*
Break Even: 10.15
Notes: I'll shoot to take this off at 50% max profit. However, I could also see working it as a precursor to a covered call. For example, if price breaks 11 by expiry, I would either take assignment of the stock at $11/share (and then proceed to sell calls against) or roll the 11 down and out for additional credit and then look to take assignment at a more favorable price ... .
* -- When I do naked short puts, I operate on the assumption that -- worst case scenario -- I will be assigned stock at the short put strike. Here, for example, I will need $1100 of buying power (100 shares x $11/share) per contract to accommodate the assignment of shares should that occur.