XOM Approaching Resistance! Will It Break Out?Technical Analysis (TA)
Current Market Structure:
* Price Action: XOM has rebounded strongly from the $108 support level, forming an ascending trendline while approaching a key resistance near $111.10 - $112.00.
* Trendlines: There’s a breakout attempt from a wedge pattern, indicating a possible continuation toward higher levels if sustained buying pressure persists.
Indicators:
* MACD: Showing a bullish momentum with a positive histogram, but the signal line is slightly flattening—watch for a potential crossover indicating trend continuation or weakness.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought (above 90), signaling possible short-term consolidation or a minor pullback before continuation.
Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $111.10 - $112.00 (Key breakout zone)
* Major Resistance: $115.00 (Psychological level + call walls from GEX)
* Support Levels: $109.71 (trendline support), $108.00 (critical support zone)
Gamma Exposure (GEX) & Options Flow
Key Insights from GEX:
* Bullish Gamma Walls:
* $115.00 – Strongest Call Resistance Zone → If breached, expect a gamma squeeze pushing prices higher.
* $112.00 – Second Call Wall (53.98% probability of hitting)
* $110.00 – Holding as a pivot zone; breaking this level with volume could confirm further upside.
* Bearish Put Walls:
* $108.00 – Put Support Zone → If the price falls below, downside risk increases.
* $105.00 & $100.00 – Major Put Walls, meaning strong downside hedging activity.
IV & Options Sentiment:
* Implied Volatility (IVR 21.2, IVX Avg 22.5) – Moderate volatility, indicating a balanced risk.
* Put Activity: PUTS at 36.8%, meaning downside hedging is still active.
* Call Activity: Moderate bullish positioning, suggesting controlled upside with resistance at $112 - $115.
📊 Trade Setups & My Suggestions
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $111.10 (Confirmation of strength)
* Target 1: $112.50
* Target 2: $115.00 (If gamma squeeze triggers)
* Stop Loss: Below $109.50
Bearish Scenario (Failure to Break Resistance):
* Entry: Below $110.00 (Breakdown confirmation)
* Target 1: $108.00
* Target 2: $105.00
* Stop Loss: Above $111.50
Final Thoughts
* XOM is at a critical breakout zone near $111.10.
* Bullish continuation is likely if we break $112, targeting $115.
* Failure to hold above $110 could lead to a pullback toward $108.
* Options data suggests heavy resistance at $112 & $115, but if breached, a gamma squeeze could fuel rapid upside momentum.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before making any trading decisions.
