ICF1! trade ideas
ABC BullishPossible stop below C or where you feel comfortable
Not to long entry level
This pattern is only valid when price breaks the BC leg in a confirmed uptrend
Not a recommendation
LONG KC (Coffee) here to 160 by Dec. (73 days)3 separate (Bearish Bat + Gartley) PRZs line up @160!
With the Real strengthening but also, option volatility rather expensive @ 41%...
... we have bought up the Dec. 2020, 140-160 CALL Spreads for $1095 a pop.
We are expecting Coffee to finish the year >160.00, for a 1:7.3 R/R on this trade - i.e. $7500 / contract.
Good luck out there!
INTERESTING DIVERGENCE!CHEESE AND MILK ARE THE AGRICULTURE FUTURES WHICH HAVE RISEN THE MOST IN PRICE DURING 2020, BUT BUTTER HAS FALLEN THE MOST IN PRICE DURING 2020!
IF YOU HAVE ACCESS TO FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON BUTTER THROUGH YOUR EXCHANGE, IT IS AN EXCELLENT VALUE PLAY!
Will the smart money drive coffee prices even lower? According to last weeks Commitment of Traders report (COT) which breaks down the total open interest as of each Tuesday’s settlement for markets held amongst three groups of traders (Commercials, Non-Commercials and Non-Reportables) showed that Commercial Hedgers more commonly known as Smart Money Hedgers are holding near extreme bearish exposure on Coffee which totalled -65,782 contracts (previous week -70,963).
At these extreme levels, commercials are important to watch as they have proven themselves over time to be correct at crucial turning points.
What’s interesting with this particular soft commodity is that the current turning point illustrated in the chart, where inside trendline support, 78.6 fib and ascending trendline junction at (1) contradicts the Smart Moneys near extreme bearish positioning. However, it’s our opinion that any downside relief at this triple support cluster will only provide better selling opportunities for the next leg down.
Non-Commercial traders trimmed their bullish net positions last week from the previous week by -4,598 contracts which now total 61,741 contracts. These large speculators are trend followers by definition and usually get it wrong at turning points, along with small speculators (Non-Reportables) which totalled a net position of 4,041 contracts, down -583 contracts reported the previous week (4,624 contracts).
COFFEE FUTURES - Wake up and smell the coffeeCOFFEE holded the support area of ~109.20-109.50 and made a pullback breaking the trendline (marked green on chart).
However the bulls seem to be sleepy so I believe the trend continues to be bearish and we have to monitor how price will react to make our decision.
Personally I'm considering a short position around the area marked on the chart.
Potential profit to blue line which is the next support area.
So as mentioned on the chart we monitor price and have our finger on the trigger.
Good luck traders.
Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become better at trading commodities.
ClosedClosed all my shorts today. Easy money. Right now, I am starting to build my long portfolio and let’s see what goes next. Will add more at 100 and 90 level.
The decline is not done yet. ExplainedCoffee reached our target at 120. However, there is still no signal the decline is done and we want to follow the trend. The support is broken and it makes me believe there is a big chance we can see a retest of important support/resistance near 104. So, if you still hold your shorts, consider adding trailing stops and let the good time roll.
Do you like coffee?Bullish structure in the process, need a lower low to complete the wave C of a flat.
Good luck!
Trend change is coming. Potential entries and targetsThe COT report is bearish, the seasonal tendency is to the downside. We have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, where do we sell? I think breaking below Thursday's low or formation of lower high would be good entries. 120 has been an important level for Coffee. It has to be tested again and it is our swing target.
KCCoffee in my opinion. Touching the resistance line from 2011, and I don't think it's possible for coffee to break out. TP 120(MA50), but I would recommend 110 for a more aggressive trading approach.
Another round of coffee cycleCoffee futures looks bullish.
Falling wedge breakout target $275-$294
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Drink Coffee and make money from the market Can Coffee commodities help us to predict the stock market ?
I don't know and this is based on my personal observation and not historical facts, so take it with a pinch of salt. Look at the Coffee chart carefully! It starts to reach the peak in Dec 2019 when it was at a high of 142. Two months later on 18 Feb 20, the SPX500 followed.
Go google yourself and you would find a ton of media news and gurus convincing the reasons why. That is why I said reading news are more for entertainment as it leaves me nothing but more question marks in my head.
Coffee finally soften its selling pressure when it went to a low of 94.75 for 2.5 months before it rebounded. Last week on 10 Aug 20, it finally broke out of the bearish trend line and look set to continue the bullish trend.
However, it looks like the SPX500 has rebounded much faster than Coffee.
Are you willing to bet on your cup of coffee that it will go higher from here while watching the stock market ?
I leave the choice to you. Do consider your portfolio allocation to commodities, capital management, position sizing, stop loss and risk management.
Trade safely
COFFEE Will Rise Next Days ! COFFEE Will Rise Next Days
I Advais You To Buy
The Target : 146 . 70 USD
StoopLoss : 127 . 10 USD
