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ISPZ2025 trade ideas

ES1!: Bearish bearish bearish, intra-day levels I feel like I want to be kind this week and share my levels just because so many people are being silly and trying to long a very clear sentiment shift. Listen, I get it, it was bullish and then it wasn't. The market makes things reality faster than the human brain and emotions can accept. You need to be quick to change your tune guys or you're going to continue to sustain losses. I have been doing this for too long and can come across as harsh to some, but I just don't have time for stupidity. Market is bearish, until it isn't. Stop trying to get cute. That said, I am expecting a bounce very soon, we statistically speaking should see a re-test of the ema 200 breakdown within the next few days, if not tomorrow. The numbers on the levels in the chart represent the probability associated with hitting the levels as a %. Stick to day trading IMO and play the levels/support and resistance. Not advice and please please please be safe and use your brain, no your emotions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Steversteves
82
S&P, NASDAQ, DOW JONES Weekly Market Forecast: Mar 10-14 In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups. Markets have been bearish due to mixed numbers employment, Fed statements, and uncertainty in US trade policies. Are the markets poised for a bounce back week? Perhaps. Traders will need to exercise patience before jumping in these volatile markets, waiting for the proper confirmations before we determine a bias. Once the markets tip their hand in that way, we can take advantage. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RT_Money
10
ES Daily Update - RSI oversold, MFI is not quite there yetHey look, I'm back. TBH, I got a day job and took a break from day trading, but the Trump tank lured me back into the market the past month, lol. Bit of a rough restart the first week, but made $10k each of the past 3 weeks including today. I figured something like this was gonna happen today so I carried TSLA puts from Friday. As you can see, futures left an open gap last night, so that caused me to get out of my puts waaaay too early, got into calls too early as well, lost all my profit for the day but made it up in the last hour and bailed, lol. $10k swing 3 times for a lot of heartburn. Daily RSI hit oversold as did the 3hr, but it looks like MFI needs to hit oversold before we get a pump to fill that open gap. So far, everything is just dumping the Trump pump from November. Not planning on shorting anything again until the open gap fills, will take another shot at going long if 3 hr RSI and MFI hit oversold again tomorrow or Wed. There's also that Friday afternoon pump that's worth playing if indicators line up. Sorry, no premarket updates, I'm on east coast time zone and at work at 9:30.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by hungry_hippo
12
Maybe it's not as bad as we think....I have seen some very goofy things take place in the market, but in 40 years of trading this is really a very special time of misplaced faith in the old style charting, but I can't help but want to buy here. People were literally throwing away their stocks like last Sunday's paper. My world as perceived through e-mini's say's: caution is warranted on the long side, but selling here is just too gut wrenching. Buying into this mess and expecting it's going to turn around tomorrow might be a bit bold, but trading here with a view towards the long side makes sense. A .382 retracement brings us back to the 5716 area and a .618 back to 5820 plus or minus a few ticks. We will be rolling from March into June contracts soon, and that is always a jolly time and may even provide some upside momentum.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by rzacuto
2
ES - Strong rejection of lower prices On ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5697. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. Strong rejection of lower prices and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
2
ES at the $5,150 Critical Level: Fibonacci 50% RetracementThe weekly chart of the ES shows that the price action is currently retracing to key Fibonacci levels, with the 50% retracement zone sitting around $5,150. Historically, this mid-point retracement has been significant—as it often marks a confluence area where buyers step in and support emerges. In past cycles, when the ES has retraced to a similar 50% level, it has frequently served as a bottom, with momentum indicators (such as the divergence signals and MACD) confirming a reversal. In the current setup, the presence of negative divergences on the momentum indicator suggests that, despite recent price declines, the selling pressure may be beginning to wane. Additionally, any potential bearish crossover in the MACD could be the last sign of weakness before a turnaround. When similar conditions occurred in previous recession-linked corrections—where fiscal stimulus or other external supports had temporarily masked underlying issues—the eventual unwinding of those supports led to a consolidation near these Fibonacci levels before a recovery ensued. Given this historical context, a drop toward the $5,150 level could represent a critical turning point. If the ES finds strong support at this level, mirroring past instances where the 50% retracement served as a bottom, it might signal the exhaustion of the downtrend and set the stage for a rebound. This technical confluence—Fibonacci support, divergence signals, and MACD cues—suggests that the market is at a juncture where previous stimulus-driven recoveries eventually gave way to bottom formations, which could be repeated in today’s environment.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by jcm99769
1
2025 Q1 + 6M/12M ranges 8h interim cycling bullish. s1 @ 5554 r1 @ 5592 macro r1 @ 5738 sustain above and macro rotation pushes higher, r2 @ 5921. its 8 days into the trading month and we've spent the entire 1M atr with extension to the downside. 8H / 1D interim rotation is bullish and no hh on di- since feb 27, despite almost a 500pt drop. Extended boxes for 6M / 12M, and major levels noted for annual sup/res also marked. In the last 20+ years, 12M candles closing red still printed an avg 4.74% H above the open; and after hitting lows, closed the year with an 9.97% rebound. The rotation is a feature not a flaw. Accept that it's fixed, and you'll see that nothing is broken. You'll know the signal when you see it. Appreciate the risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by iSovereign
2
Es Potential for some more downside before we start moving upEs has been in a downtrend for a while now with buyers eagerly trying to dig in a foothold for the next leg up. These are a couple indicators I have created the right screen is a gap filter range that price will revisit and use as support/resistance before moving to the next one. As you can see today ES has retested the upper range again and we are right back down below it so I am watching for some fresh downside before I look to start taking longs. The right screen also shows a channel we have been in and an Indicator I created that shows the average retracement ranges of the day and then draws boxes that price will partially or fully mitigate and the boxes will reflect the color (yellow for partial and red for full mitigation). As you can see the trend has been to clean up some of the most recent ones to make another step down, I will be watching for a reaction if we get down there to start assuming longs. Or we might blast right out of this with news but with todays reaction Im fully expecting some more directional moves down first.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tagerediia
2
DID SPECULATORS FINALLY BUY THE DIP?Since the October 2022 low in the S&P, Large Speculators (blue column) have not bought any dips in the market with significance where they got crowded getting long. Since that low, the S&P kept making new all-time highs and the Speculators never chased. Tt's going to be real interesting cot on Friday, 03/07/2025, to see if they bought this dip in stocks which I've been talking about for a few years, where I really didn't think this bull market will end until they buy. They were clearly never going to chase. So maybe they'll buy the dip. The Friday data will show positioning as of this past Tuesday which included a significant move. If that is in fact what they have been doing. My sneaking suspicion is they did. But let's see, let's let the data tell us.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Crowded_Market_Report
9
Potential US Stock Market Crash Monday March 17,2025The United States stock market, as measured by the S+P 500 Stock Index Futures June 2025 Contract (ESM25) 30 Years Of Continuous WEEKLY Chart DATA ( my own proprietary chart ) reveals the stock market could CRASH on Monday March 17,2025 IF todays ES June 2025 Contract Low of 5559.75 is violated Weekly Close on Friday 3/14 !! Long positions in the stock US stock market should be closely monitored, or sold outright if this were to occur tomorrow March 14,2025 ES June 25 Contract Last 3/13/25 248 PM 5600. THE_UNWIND WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
CME_MINI:ESM2025Short
by The_Unwind
Putting the current pullback from ATHs into context ES FuturesCME_MINI:ES1! Big Picture: ATH on December 6th, 2024: 6,184.50 There has been no significant correction or pullback since the ATH. Currently, the market has pulled back ~8.20% from the ATH. The previous correction (over a 10% pullback, but less than a 20% downturn) occurred after ES futures hit an all-time high of 5,856 on July 15th, 2024. The market bottomed out on August 5th, 2024. Currently, ES futures are trading below the 50% retracement level from the ATH on December 6th, 2024, and the swing low on August 5th, 2024, at 5,719.25. Given the current "risk-off" sentiment, let's review the updated price map for ES Futures. Key Levels: Important level to reclaim if no correction: 5,795.25 - 5,800 Key LVN (Low Volume Node): 5,738 - 5,696 Mid 2024 range: 5,574.50 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 2024 YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value Area Low): 5,449.25 2022 CVAH (Composite Value Area High): 5,280 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 This zone is important in the event of a 10% pullback, which could lead to a bounce thereafter. On our regular 4-hour time frame, which we use for weekly analysis and preparation, higher lows have been breached, and ES futures are now trading below the lows from November 4th, 2024, January 13th, 2025, and February 28th, 2025. The probable next downside target is the 50% retracement of the 2024 range, which stands at 5,574.50. Unless we see a sustained bounce that reclaims the 5,795.25 - 5,800 zone, the key support level at 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 is likely to be tested, aligning with our expected 10% pullback. Note that a bear market (i.e., a pullback greater than 20%) wouldn't begin until prices drop to around 4,900, which is still about 750 points away from the current price level of 5,650. Considering all the above, what can we expect this week? CPI and PPI data are due this week, and the market is currently in "risk-off" mode. This sentiment is exacerbated by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on needing more data before altering rate path, combined with tariffs complicating the US economy. What price level might prompt policymakers to adjust their stance? The Fed’s dual mandate considers both 2% inflation and low unemployment. With the unemployment rate edging above 4% and inflation remaining high, this upcoming inflation reading is critical. We believe this report may trigger volatility not seen in recent months with CPI releases. We have the SEP and FOMC rate decision coming up on March 19th, 2024. Scenario 1: Soft CPI than expectations Expecting volatile price action, however, a V-shaped recovery given softer CPI reading. Markets go in wait and see Scenario 2: Range bound week In this scenario, we expect a range bound week, with inflation print in line and markets in wait and see mode for FED FOMC announcement. Scenario 3: High CPI print With a higher CPI print, FED will be in a difficult position to cut rates. Will this bad news be bad for the market or good? Mounting risks point to further downside if we do not get any pivot on macro level to support the economy.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
World Recession 2025 Has Begun: Comparing last 25 YearsHistory Lessons The global recession of 2025 has started, and it's time to evaluate how previous global crises, initiated primarily by the U.S. economy, have impacted the world's leading economies over the past 25 years. Historical data reveals the most resilient and vulnerable economies during periods of global instability. 📌 Most Resilient Economy (by crisis resilience): Russia is identified as the most resilient economy, uniquely demonstrating significant growth (+187%) during the global crisis of 2001. Russia's average result across the three crises is +26%, making it the only country in the list with a positive average during crisis periods. This remarkable growth in Russia in 2001 resulted from a rapid recovery following the 1998 crisis, significant increases in oil prices, and an influx of foreign investments following the ruble's devaluation. These factors enabled the Russian market not only to withstand but also significantly grow, distinguishing it from other global markets. 📌 The Weakest Economies (by crisis resilience): Germany and France were the weakest, each experiencing an average drawdown of 55%. Germany notably suffered a substantial drop of 72% in 2001, underscoring its vulnerability to global economic shocks. This vulnerability arises because German and French economies heavily depend on exports and international trade, making them particularly sensitive to declines in global demand and economic instability. 📌 Overall Resilience Ranking (from strongest to weakest): 🇷🇺 Russia (+26%) ✅ (only country with positive average due to recovery in 2001) 🇨🇳 China (-43%) (least vulnerable among other countries) 🇬🇧 UK (-45%) 🇺🇸 USA (-48%) 🇮🇳 India (-50%) 🇯🇵 Japan (-52%) 🇫🇷 France (-55%) ❌ 🇩🇪 Germany (-55%) ❌ 📌 Assessment of Other Assets: Oil exhibited deep drawdowns across all crises (average -69%), confirming its high sensitivity to global economic instability and demand shocks. Bitcoin experienced a moderate decline (-53%) during the 2020 crisis, comparable to equity markets of developed countries. 📌 Additional Observations: Russia, despite showing positive performance, remains heavily reliant on commodity markets (primarily oil and gas). Its exceptional performance in 2001 resulted from unique recovery circumstances following the severe internal crisis of 1998. Over the long term, the U.S. economy remains the most diversified, stable, and resilient due to its market size, robust financial infrastructure, and high degree of diversification. In conclusion, based on crisis drawdown data, Russia appears as the strongest economy, while Germany and France were the weakest. Among alternative assets, oil proved to be the most volatile.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Smollet
Spy PathI can see SPY moving this way—a potential relief rally off the unmitigated order block from September that caused the imbalance and the macro Break of Structure (BoS). We've already taken out some key sell-side liquidity at the Equal Lows from October/November (EQL), so there's no immediate need to keep chasing more sell-side liquidity. If an aggressive buyer steps in, I could see price pushing back up through the Bullish Order Block, retesting the Equal High (EQH) I marked earlier, which would tap into buy-side liquidity. From there, it could reach the bearish order block that caused the imbalance, triggering the Change of Character (CHoCH), and then reverse lower, as it looks we are now in bearish order flow for the timeframe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYDERMARKET