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2024-11-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Same here, 2 daily bars engulfing 2 months price action and market tested the upper bull wedge line for a new ath. We are close enough to 6000 that we can expect it to get hit, everything else would be a huge surprise to me. Can you short 6000? Not blindly, market mostly needs a double top or more at these levels before it gives up on it. If bears get below the 1h 20ema, I start thinking about not being bullish anymore, until then it’s peak euphoria. comment: Huge day for the bulls, right to or through the upper bull wedge line, depending on how you want to draw it. 6000 is the target and bulls will not stop until we have printed it. Bears can’t seriously expect this to stop before so that is why most of today's price action was bears giving up. We need some time around 6000 to find out how many bulls want to buy that price or if we see an immediate profit taking and reversal down. For now the bull wedge is still alive and the best pattern we have. 6000 would be a bit of an overshoot and those can reverse very fast and they like to test down to the other extreme, which would be 5800ish. current market cycle: bull wedge key levels: 5730 - 6000 bull case: Bulls want 6000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has not touched the 1h 20ema since yesterday’s US open. As long as it is not broken, only look for longs until we hit 6000. Invalidation is below 5730. bear case : Bears don’t have much. Complete giveup from since yesterday and they will try again at 6000. If they somehow manage to print a decent 1h bear bar below the 20ema tomorrow, their case would get better. For now they don’t have one. Invalidation is above 6050. short term: Max bullish for 6000 as long as 1h 20ema holds. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buy anwhere.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
NQ breaks to new highs. Markets reacting to Election ResultsThis upward trend seems to have some momentum today. I'm not suggesting traders chase this rally and hold anything overnight, but I am seeing new highs on the ES/NQ charts, and IWM and other sectors are rallying to new ATHs today as well. This shows the scale of capital sitting and waiting for the election to play out. Traders were very concerned with the election outcome. At this point, I consider this rally phase a bit overcooked. The ES and NQ will likely continue to try to push higher as we move into the Santa Rally phase, but as a trader, I would be cautious of any overreaction to the election results. My best advice for my followers is to continue trading in minimal quantities unless you can handle taking huge lumps/losses over the next 3 to 4 days. The US markets will settle into next week, and after this emotional price move subsides, we'll start to trend based on more logical economic data. There will be some huge opportunities for skilled traders over the next 5+ months. Get ready. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
1
Election Rally Sets Up Big REVERSION Shift - Stay CautiousThis quick video was initiated to show you how the ES/NQ are setting up new #2 Excess Phase Peak patterns after the overnight rally. Then I took a look at Gold/Silver. We are seeing a very broad shift into a reversion phase where the markets may move into a PANIC type of DEEP-V low over the next 48+ hours. The move in metals (related to the US Dollar rally), will likely result in a DEEP-V base/bottom - prompting a fairly strong recovery/rally phase in metals over the next 2+ weeks. Take a look at what happened during the COVID crisis. The same type of PANIC selling/shift took place then. The Dollar rallies on expectations/policy/or a crisis. This puts very strong pressure on Metals. Then, the markets settle into a reasonable expectation (post-event) and the US Dollar settles. But metals have been deeply undervalued because of the PANIC selling. Metals then move strongly back to the upside - removing to the pre-crisis price level, then move even higher as metals attempt to hedge risks related to the post-event/crisis economy. Get ready. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of your life. Get Some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
US500 SPX Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 The US500 has recently faced selling pressure, which could offer opportunities for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll break down the price action, assess the current trend and market structure, and look at potential counter-trend buy and sell setups during the retracement if the price action develops as anticipated. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risks, and market conditions may change suddenly. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fxtraderanthony
$SPY $ES Daily&Weekly AnalysisThe videos shows my interpretation of the (S) and (R) i see on daily&week. Daily: we see (S) formed on 9/23 and it's still being used causes us to bounce that (S) to test prev (R) & 10ma(R) today on Daily! Week: we see it's still holding above 10MA as (S) we also have new (R) form 10/14~10/25. Bull's plan: Waiting for Daily to reclaim10ma from (R) to (S), and aim prev Lower High (R) ~5821 then ATH(R) ~5915 Bear's plan: Waiting for Daily to reject current (R) to test prev (S) ~5745
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FIBivanSPY
2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls had a good day and a buy vacuum up to the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Bears have to come up with something big to reverse this. On the daily chart you can see the candle bodies from 2 weeks ago stayed above 5830, which is my highest target for bulls for now. If they go above that, they might as well melt to the bear trend line 5870. current market cycle: trading range (chance that we are already in a bear trend is there) key levels: 5730 - 5840 bull case: Bulls want to get a measured move up from today, which would lead to 5900. For now I don’t think the odds are too good for that but today’s strength was also surprising. Above 5830 I think most bears will give up. Invalidation is below 5730. bear case: Bears have to defend their big leg down from last week and they should keep it below 5830. They could see this as a buy vacuum to test the daily 20ema and we go down from here. My W4 target from my weekly outlook was 5800, so we are still close enough for this to be correct. Invalidation is above 5830. short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5830. Want to see this reverse completely and then some. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying US open I guess.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
S&P500: More Upward Potential!We still ascribe more upward potential to the S&P’s turquoise wave B – up to the resistance at 6088 points. At this level, we expect a transition into the same-colored wave C, which should push the index down into our green Target Zone between 5110 and 4921 points. Within this Zone, the larger wave should find its final low, which should provide potential entry points for long positions. A stop-loss can be set 1% below this Zone for risk management. However, if the index surpasses the 6088 points mark directly, our alternative scenario (probability: 38%) will come into play: it suggests that the wave low is already in place.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
2024 Election Day Market AnalysisIn this video, I provide comprehensive market analysis focusing on: 1. Market Structure Analysis - Examining price action patterns and technical levels for major futures contracts: * ES (E-mini S&P 500) * NQ (E-mini NASDAQ-100) * CL (Crude Oil) * GC (Gold) 2. Liquidity Pool Analysis - Identifying and tracking significant areas of liquidity 3. Scenario Analysis - Pre-Post-election scenarios: * Potential market reactions to polling data * Volatility expectations 4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis - Intraday (short-term) movements - Daily trends - Weekly patterns - Monthly market outlook
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LiquidityTracker
ES price ACtion Review 11-4 RTH and overnight sEssion ESGoing over yesterdays price action and last night overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we're starting to become laser focus in our core setups. no setup no trade today. always remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. Freedom has a price and that price is that we work on ourselves harder than our job everyday. the bill comes due everyday. did i do enough? what do i have to work on? God Bless America
CME_MINI:MES1!
by BobbyS813
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days. Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then. February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm Were are we today? Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment. Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis. Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event). Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again? I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there. I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by entomologyx
$ES_F (Emini Futures) Wedge Breakdwon$ES_F (Emini futures) recently broke a strong bullish wedge support selling extremely strong, since then it’s been holding the 23.6% retracement, now there are 2 scenarios that i’ll be watching the ideal scenario would be a continuation of the breakdown to fill gap which is a target of $5,639.50 and potentially continue lower. The bullish scenario would be to hold retracement and bounce to target the wedge resistance and potentially even break above and continue higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by NateTradesStonks