ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5684.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
ISP1! trade ideas
How to Use Drawing Tools on TradingViewThis tutorial video discusses why and how traders use different types of trading tools, how to access the trading tools in Tradingview, and a few examples of how and why you might apply them.
Learn more about using Tradingview to trade futures with Optimus Futures:
optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
Liberation, Altercation & Boom: US China Trade talks CME_MINI:ES1!
Pointing to our previously written blog post (Liberation, Altercation or Doom) on March 31st. A mix of all scenarios played out.
Global universal tariffs with reciprocal tariffs layered on top. It resulted in a huge sell-off on April 2nd.
After months of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing economic friction, the US and China have agreed to hit pause. In a joint statement that’s given markets some breathing room, both countries announced a 90-day suspension on a large portion of their punitive tariffs—an initial step toward dialing back tensions and restarting dialogue.
Key Tariff Measures from US-China Joint Statement (90-Day Pause)
US Tariff Reductions:
Tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period.
24 percentage points suspended, leaving a 10% base tariff in place.
China Tariff Reductions:
Tariffs on US goods reduced from 125% to 10% for the same 90-day period.
China also suspends 24 percentage points of additional ad valorem duties.
Retains a 10% baseline tariff on US imports.
Non-Tariff Measures: China to suspend or remove all non-tariff countermeasures imposed since April 2.
Includes sanctions on certain US companies.
Lifts export controls on some critical minerals.
Timeline & Commitment:
Both parties agree to implement these actions by May 14.
Commitment to continue trade and economic talks through a new bilateral mechanism.
Talks may be held in alternating locations (US/China) or via third-party venues.
No Agreement On:
Currency policy.
E-commerce “de minimis” exemptions.
Sector-specific tariff frameworks.
Future Key Dates and Timeline:
May - Potential US semiconductor tariffs.
May/June - Potential US pharmaceutical tariffs.
July 8th - 90-day tariff lowering for "worst offenders" expires.
July 14th - US tariffs on Mexican agriculture goes into effect.
August 10th - US-China tariff relief expires.
Was this really mutual or just a game of chicken?
There’s an argument to be made that this is more of a tactical pause than a full reconciliation. With China’s GDP in purchasing power parity terms now surpassing that of the US, and its continued technological advancements across sectors like aerospace, semiconductors, and critical minerals, the balance of economic leverage is shifting. For investors, this isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about the evolving structure of global trade.
Geopolitical undercurrents continue to shape the backdrop. China’s strategic influence in regional security, technology supply chains, and commodity access adds another layer to its negotiating position. Recent developments—such as China's reassertion of dominance in strategic corridors and growing control over key mineral exports—suggest its economic posture is becoming more assertive. This, in turn, has implications for US firms dependent on Chinese inputs or facing retaliatory restrictions.
In short, the 90-day window presents a tactical opportunity, but the structural story remains complex. Investors would be wise to monitor not just tariff updates, but broader shifts in trade alliances, export controls, and supply chain vulnerabilities—especially in sectors like tech, energy, and defense-adjacent industries.
ES Futures:
ES Futures and risk on assets are positive across the board following this announcement.
Key Levels:
Key LVN/ Key LIS: 5861-5837.25
200 Day MA: 5872.99
0.786 Fib Retracement level: 5921.75
0.618 Fib Retracement level: 5688.75
pWkHi: 5741
mCVAL 2025: 5639.75
Expectations for the week ahead:
US CPI and Retail Sales data on the docket this week along with slew of FED speakers.
Scenario 1: Risk on
ES Futures get back above 200-day moving average clearing the key LVN resistance zone and our key LIS, head towards 0.786 Fib retracement level before pulling back and consolidating for the remainder of the week.
Example trade:
Entry: 5861
Stop: 5837
Target: 5921.75
Risk: 96 ticks
Reward: 243 ticks
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.5 R
Scenario 2: Further consolidation
Markets consolidate below the key LVN resistance zone and prior weekly high.
Example Trade:
Entry: 5837
Stop: 5861
Target: 5741
Risk: 96 ticks
Reward: 384 ticks
Risk/Reward ratio: 4 R
Glossary:
VA: Value Area
VPOC: Volume Point of Control
VAL: Value Area Low
C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.)
mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)
LNV: Low Volume Node
LIS: Line in Sand
Important Notes:
These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
How to Set Up Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF) in TradingViewThis tutorial video explains what a time frame is, why traders use multiple time frames for their analysis, and how to set them up in TradingView for futures and other products.
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
Cautious Optimism: What’s Next for the S&P 500US500 My Outlook for the Next Week:
Given the relentless bullishness on the chart and the current backdrop, here’s how I see the next week playing out:
Short-Term: The S&P 500 may continue to consolidate or experience mild pullbacks as investors digest recent gains and await fresh catalysts. Sector rotation could create choppiness, especially if tech underperforms.
Catalysts: Watch for key economic data (inflation, employment, Fed commentary) and any major earnings surprises. These could trigger renewed momentum or a sharper correction.
Risk/Reward: The risk of a sharp correction is rising, but the underlying trend remains bullish unless there’s a significant negative surprise. A shallow pullback or sideways action would be healthy and could set up the next leg higher if fundamentals remain intact.
In summary: The S&P 500’s relentless bullishness is being tested by mixed sentiment and cautious analyst forecasts. Fundamentals are still supportive, but risks are rising. For the next week, expect consolidation or mild volatility, with the potential for renewed upside if economic data and earnings remain strong. Stay nimble, watch for sector rotation, and be prepared for both short-term pullbacks and longer-term opportunities.
Not financial advice.
S&P 500 – iSpark Catches Clean Breakout from 5330 to 5700📢 The iSpark Indicator caught a strong breakout on the S&P 500 Index (4H chart) around the 5330 level , which was followed by a sequence of bullish moves — now reaching the 5700 mark.
🔍 Currently, price is testing the 10 EMA at 5710 , which is acting as a short-term resistance . A clear break and sustained move above 5710 could trigger the next leg higher toward 5750–5775 .
🎯 Holding positions? Stay in with a stop-loss at 5600 to manage risk.
📉 Fundamental caution: As always, keep an eye on macro headlines — unexpected global turmoil or sharp trade commentary (e.g., tariffs) may influence momentum
💡 This entire setup was captured early using the iSpark Indicator , designed to detect high-conviction breakouts across timeframes.
📬 Premium users interested in testing the iSpark Indicator can DM me for a hands-on walkthrough.
#SP500 #ES1! #Breakout #iSpark #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #EMA #TrendFollowing #SPX #TradingView #SNP500
$6 Trillion Rollercoaster: Trade War Jitters Clash With FedThe index swung wildly as Trump’s 145% China tariffs and hints of an 80% reduction collided with Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rates. Despite a midweek rally, the S&P 500 ( NYSE:ES ) closed the week down 0.46% at $5,684 reflecting investor paralysis ahead of U.S.- China trade talks.
May 9th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +440
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I have been traveling the last few days and didn't have a chance to trade. just finally catching up on things again and getting hte videos out.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 9:44 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 1:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal
— 2:09 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 2:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
New All Time High This Summer?Market is showing real strength here. After the uncertainty and those tariff windfalls, price is recovering well and looks like it’s setting up for continuation.
As long as we stay above that Monthly FVG, I think the path to a new all time high this summer is pretty realistic. That could possibly be supported by Nvidia earnings in late May and interest rate cut in June.
What are your thoughts?
3 drives into a bearflagsome may call it a head and shoulders forming
i call it a liquidty grab and trapped longs
Tripple RSI bearish divergence and CVD absorption (if you dont know any of these you shouldnt be trading you should be learning.)
We have some trapped top longers here boys.
and we have gaps to close.
im aiming for a full monthly rotation
SPY to pullback AFTER bullish Thursday Friday Gap Fill TargetI was initially skeptical of the bearish case because we were able to stand strong against the Moody's downgrade, but I guess all good things come to an end, at least temporarily, especially with the bond yields spiking higher today.
I drew a channel off the downtrend and I think it is pretty wide, so I would expect us to follow it at least for the next week, obviously if we break to the upside then you can probably put the bearish concerns to rest, but until then with the lower low I think we are decidedly bearish for now, especially if we make a lower high to end the week (pretty likely)
I wouldn't pile into puts just yet, as that is what the greedy retail trader is doing, and we all know how that works, also seasonally the Thursday Friday leading into memorial day are usually bullish, combined with Bitcoin making new highs, I think we will actually have relatively neutral to bullish price action to close the week.
The Tuesday-Thursday after memorial day are seasonally a bit more bearish, so I think that is where we will see a surprise sell-off and possible fill of that huge bar around the 5720 area.
There is a lot of price action between 5600 and 5700 so I think the support there will be strong, this is only a pullback and I am still bullish long term.
Good Luck and Happy Trading.