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ISP1! trade ideas

75: Comprehensive Guide to Volume Profiles and Volume in TradingWhat is a Volume Profile? A Volume Profile is an advanced charting tool that plots the amount of trading activity (volume) across different price levels over a specific period. Unlike traditional volume indicators that only show volume over time, Volume Profiles provide insights into where the majority of trading took place, highlighting key areas of support and resistance, as well as zones of high and low interest among traders. Key Components of Volume Profiles: 1. Point of Control (POC) : This is the price level where the highest volume of trades occurred. The POC is a crucial level because it represents the price at which traders found the most value, making it a strong indicator of support or resistance. 2. Value Area (VA) : The Value Area represents the range of prices where approximately 70% of the volume was traded. This area is divided into the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL). The VA is significant because it identifies the zone where most market participants were active, providing a clear picture of market consensus on value. 3. High Volume Nodes (HVN) and Low Volume Nodes (LVN) : HVNs are price levels where there was a large amount of trading activity, indicating significant interest and often serving as strong support or resistance levels. LVNs, on the other hand, represent areas with minimal trading activity, where prices tend to move quickly due to the lack of interest. The Importance of Volume in Trading Volume is a fundamental aspect of market analysis, offering insights into the strength and sustainability of price movements. It reflects the level of participation in a market, indicating the intensity of buying or selling at different price levels. - Confirmation of Price Movements : High volume confirms the legitimacy of a price move. For example, a price breakout from a resistance level on high volume is more likely to be sustained than one on low volume. - Reversals and Continuations : Spikes in volume can signal potential reversals, especially when occurring at significant price levels such as the POC or near the VA boundaries. Conversely, a sustained high volume along a trend can indicate its continuation. - Validation of Support and Resistance : Volume at key levels like the POC, VAH, and VAL helps validate these areas as strong support or resistance. When price interacts with these levels on high volume, it suggests that many market participants are active, reinforcing the importance of these price levels. How to Interpret and Use Volume Profiles: 1. Identifying Key Price Levels : - The POC acts as a magnet for price, often drawing the price back to it when it moves away. This level is crucial for identifying potential areas of reversal or consolidation. - The Value Area is where the majority of the trading activity occurs. Prices above the VAH might indicate an overbought condition, while prices below the VAL could suggest an oversold market. 2. Volume and Market Sentiment : - High Volume Nodes indicate areas of significant interest, where prices tend to stabilize due to heavy trading. These areas often become zones of accumulation or distribution, depending on market conditions. - Low Volume Nodes indicate price levels with minimal trading interest, where prices may move quickly and encounter less resistance, often leading to rapid price changes or breakouts. 3. Order Flow and Large Volume Blocks : - Large blocks of volume, particularly at HVNs, suggest the presence of institutional traders or significant market participants placing large orders. These zones are critical because they reflect where big players are accumulating or distributing their positions. As a result, these areas tend to create strong support or resistance levels that can define future market behavior. 4. Dynamic vs. Static Profiles : - Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR): This type of profile updates as you scroll through your chart, dynamically showing the volume distribution for the visible price range. It’s useful for analyzing the current market context and finding immediate trading opportunities. - Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP): This profile is static, showing volume data for a specified price range or time period. It’s valuable for comparing current price action to historical data, helping identify long-term support and resistance levels. Practical Tips for Using Volume Profiles : 1. Customization and Settings : - Adjust the number of rows or ticks per row in your Volume Profile settings to get a more detailed or broader view of volume distribution. More rows will give you finer detail, while fewer rows will smooth out the data, highlighting major trends. 2. Combining with Other Indicators : - Use Volume Profiles in conjunction with other technical indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD to confirm trading signals and enhance the reliability of your analysis. 3. Adapting to Different Timeframes : - Tailor your Volume Profile analysis to your trading style. For day traders, shorter timeframes (e.g., 5, 15, 30 minutes) might be more relevant, while swing traders or investors might focus on daily, weekly, or even monthly profiles to identify long-term trends and key levels. 4. Observing Market Reactions at Key Levels : - Pay close attention to how the market reacts when it approaches HVNs, LVNs, the POC, or the boundaries of the Value Area. These reactions can provide clues about future price movements and potential trading opportunities. Volume Profiles offer a deep and nuanced view of market behavior by highlighting where significant trading activity has occurred at different price levels. By understanding the interaction between volume and price, traders can make more informed decisions, identify key levels for entry and exit, and gain insights into market sentiment. Integrating Volume Profile analysis into your trading strategy can provide a significant edge, enhancing your ability to navigate the complexities of financial markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by SeventyFive-Invest
Squeeze, plus PPI and CPI next weekMajor decision upcoming on Friday - especially for shortsellers. PPI and CPI data is around the corner. Trouble for shortsellers, because neither of those data will likely be bad. TVC:VIX is already in a difficult to defend position for shortseller and they'll get a double whammy on Op-Ex week. The market will squeeze shortsellers quickly in the area above Thursday's high. Institutional had swapped chairs with retail and retail is currently bagholding shorts. Above Thursday's high is a good area to double down on longs, while shortseller should cut losses quickly.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by KJKaramay
Plan For Friday SessionPlan for Friday: supports are 5343, 5338 (major), 5328, 5322, 5308-10 (major), 5306, 5298 (major), 5278 (major), 5268 (major). Yall should know what I’m going to say here. We had a monster rally today, 160 points. My absolute least favorite time to trader is after a big trend day. Longs are risky - chasing with no pullback after this large of a rally is non sense. Shorts are risky - we are in a squeeze. And the odds of complex, messy chop are high. As a result, tomorrow is capital preservation Friday for me, and I’ll just be taking it light, protecting what I have from this week. From here, 5338-42 is first down. This has been the brick wall resistance all week, and now, for the first time, we are closing above it and its now support. A possible entry could be something like if we test 5328 and recover the zone. Below there, we flush down the levels again, and this may be a sort of macro failed breakout. If so, that means all longs will be very risk and should be done with small size. 5308-10 is first support down. If we are knifing down, one could try it micro sized, or better yet, wait for it to flush and reclaim. Use common sense. Below there we knife down the levels. 5268 would be one spot of interest to watch for a bounce, and if we test it then recover 5280 it is even better. Below there we probably flush down to 5228-33 again, reaction zone, then down to 5186-91, which I would be willing to try one final small long at before we start the next macro leg lower into the 4900s. Resistances are: 5351 (major), 5362, 5372, 5378 (major), 5388, 5394, 5398 (major), 5409, 5414-16 (major), 5427, 5433, 5439 (major). I am currently long and I won’t be flipping short tomorrow on strength. For those who are looking for spots to try reaction shorts though, 5378 would be one zone, then 5438 would be another. Either could provoke sells. Buyers case: Bulls did some good work today, holding 5186-91 major support, then recovering the 5338-42 area. We are only a few points above now so its still chance for a trap - we need to take it level to level. Generally though, we remain in a recovery leg since Monday, as long as above that 5186-91 level. Buyers want to defend 5338-42 level now (or if it does fail, quickly flush to something like 5328 and reclaim), and begin working up towards the next major backtest magnet which is now 5438. There are big resistances en route like 5378 any of which can end the leg. I normally give spots to add on strength, but I cannot do so here when are at the highs of day. I can only say that I would see any overnight flagging above 5338-42 and below todays high as being bullish, and favoring continuation. Sellers case: the real sellers case begins on the fail of 5186-91. Obviously 5186-91 is very far away now, so in order to short there I obviously would not just be blindly shorting below. I’d need to see a strong reaction there or failed breakdown and good final bounce, then I’d consider short 5180ish. On a shorter-term basis, 5269 is also a level I’d consider a breakdown short of. Same drill - I need to see a bounce there and/or failed breakdown first. On the shortest term basis, 5308-10 failure likely provides a good level to level short. Same drill, I need evidence the zone is used up (this zone is already fairly well tested). After this, I’d look short 5304. In general, Today I was looking for a rally to 5338-42, and we got there and beyond. Post-rally trading is the worst trading, so I will be in capital preservation mode tomorrow. My general lean though is to respect the 5338-42 late day breakout. As long as it holds, we can work up to 5378 next. Decision point there - and if bulls can push through, we likely head all the way to 5414, 5438. If 5338-42 fails, ES has to do more work on the downside as per the above plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
A Margin Selling Bottom?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled 5227.50, down 38.75 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,966.50, down 212.50 Equity markets fell precipitously in the second half of yesterday’s session, finishing at Monday’s intraday low. From yesterday’s high, this was a 3.5% move into the overnight for the E-mini S&P and more than 4.5% for the E-mini NQ. I have noted here and in my short ‘end of day’ videos that although there is a high probability a low area was created Sunday night, we expect continued choppiness this week. For one reason, there is tremendous overhead supply at Friday’s gap settlement, the area in which we failed yesterday. Second, as the market works through a consolidation across this region, there are margin calls carried from as early as Friday. In that case, Friday’s calls were at Day 3 yesterday which means forced liquidation. This explains, at least partly, once the selling started why it did not stop. Today’s economic calendar brings Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, a number becoming increasingly important, especially after last week’s read hit a cycle high. The read came in better than expected at 233k versus 241k expected, soothing recession worries, but last week’s was revised up 1k to 250k. At noon CT, there is a 30-year Bond auction and it brings an interesting dynamic. With the yield curve steepening although yesterday’s 10-year auction was weak, the yield of the 30s has outperformed the yield of the 10s by about 20bps over the last month. This could be a defining moment for buyers to step in. In such a case, we see it supporting risk assets. When compared to last Thursday’s reversal, yesterday’s selling was lower in volume. We believe this to support our narrative of a choppy but constructive consolidation. Given additional weakness after the settlement, both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ have ground to make up and a more difficult path in turning positive on the session. Our Pivot and point of balance noted below for each aligns with settlement and will be crucial through the first hour. If we see strength as the afternoon approaches, major three-star resistance in the S&P will become absolutely critical at 5262.50-5266.25, and a move above here will set the indices on a path of repairing just yesterday’s damage. However, a break below major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5189-5192.25 is likely to invite additional selling. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5262.50-5266.25***, 5278.75-5279.50**, 5292.25**, 5300.50**, 5319.25-5323***, 5331.75-5334**, 5342-5349.75**, 5354.75-5459.25**, 5366.50-5376****, 5420***, 5432.50-5441.25*** Pivot: 5217.50-5227 Support: 5202.25-5204.25**, 5189-5192.25***, 5146-5161.25***, 5120**, 5092-5102.75***, 5059.75-5078.75*** 4988.25*** NQ (September) Resistance: 18,147-18,179***, 18,243-18,289***, 18,341-18,382**, 18,438-18,482***, 18,520-18,557****, 18,725-18,738*** Pivot: 17,966-18,016 Support: 17,856-17,893**, 17,711-17,741***, 17,509***, 17,333-17,398****, 17,110-17,180****, 16,826-16,870*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
ES / MES/ SPX / SPYMy ES, SPX & SPY charts are "busy" with scalp levels (Using MES) The current short-term H&S pattern has played out, but it's possible we make a neckline around 5000 for a much larger H&S, similar to what we saw in late 2021 into 2022. IF we form a neckline at 5000 and create a right shoulder (5400ish), and that neckline is later broken the downside target would be 4300ish. In theory, H&S target is the same distance between the neckline and head. 2022's neckline to peak to trough was almost 1:1; it did miss by a little. Low was 3843 and in theory, should have hit around 3775 (it needed to go 1.7% lower to hit) but that extremely close. If the labor market weakens further , and we see a mild recession, this wouldn't be far-fetched. Expected EPS for 2024 = 245 Using a recession multiple of 17/18x P/E and 5% EPS growth vs the 10-15% expected, earnings would be 257ish. At 4300, and 257 earnings, the P/E would be 16.7x
CME_MINI:MES1!
by pkp544
Bear Flag or bottom? And, the Japanese Yen Carry Trade...The debate among traders is if this is a real bear flag that's forming and there's another leg down for the indices? Or, if the bottom, had be set by the lows on Monday. I believe that the lows were established on Monday and the indices are consolidating and will move upward soon. This consolidation period also allows the moving averages to catch up after the fast decline we had experienced.If the selloff is caused by Japanese Yen carry trade then it is a one-time event without much lasting effect. As I mentioned before - most of the Macro trends point to a higher year end - consumption, jobs, liquidity.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by KJKaramay
Long S&P 500 setup as bulls absorb big selling volumes S&P 500 E-minis have absorbed plenty of selling over the past few sessions but are yet to take the lows struck on Monday. While that doesn’t mean they won’t, it looks like futures may be settling into a new sideways range between 5350 on the topside and 5154 on the downside. Granted, the latter is only a minor level that was breached in the peak of the market puke on Monday, but the dip was bought aggressively below the level. While signals on momentum like RSI (14) and MACD point to continued downside risks, sitting near the bottom of the newly established range, a long setup could be on the cards if we see risk-reward of the trade improve. It’s not a high probability setup, so if we’re going to go against the trend, we don’t want to be risking a lot. Pullbacks towards 5154 offer one entry point, allowing for a stop to be placed below Monday’s low for protection. The trade target would be the top of the range at 5350. Those wishing to get in now could do so with a stop below 5154 for protection. Target would be the same as the preferred setup. From a fundamental perspective, Thursday’s US jobless claims data may be influential on the trade with a stronger-than-expected outcome likely to ease concerns about the US economic trajectory, and potentially the outlook for corporate earnings. DS
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FOREXcom
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150. Invalidation is below 5090. bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above. Invalidation is above 5280. short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
ES soybean oil8 7 24 Here I made some comparisons between the es and soybean oil. I made my point in the video so there's no need to spend a lot of time on this introduction. I believe the biggest problem Traders have aside from not having enough capital, is that the biggest problem they have is the way they think and their inability to recognize it and make meaningful changes. and because of this inability to change they end up trading to a personal psychology filled with remorse and disappointment and anger and hopelessness...... and they don't know how to change. as I write this introduction it occurs to me that this is not so much different from my efforts over the past year or so to lose weight, to stop eating sugar and most carbohydrates even though it would be good for me. and I still eat sugar and carbohydrates and I have lost weight....... but it reminds me That most of us have our demons and that if we want to improve our lives we have to spend time and acknowledge what the demons are and what we need to do to change. I've never made a business of teaching people about trading for me to make money. but there have been a few people that I've tried to help because they didn't know how to trade or they didn't make money when they trade and I would tell them that they need to study the market and look for Clues and then test their Insight without risking money because the risk of financial loss sabotages the ability of most people to learn and learning takes time and you have to draw the lines if you know what they are on the chart before you start trading.whatever your internal dialogue is like.... I will speak for myself so I don't offend anyone.... I don't understand how I could trade with fear or remorse or anger...or a sense that I had some control....not to change the market but to take a good trade with a small stop and a reasonable reward and that I could relate it to the way other buyers and sellers including the smart money and the retail money.... and do this with a stop that isn't going to make me angry or fearful because I've tested it and have experienced from the past I believe most people start trading to make money. what they really should do in my opinion if they want to trade.... is to learn how to think before they trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin