10% Correction Region The -5% region (dip) and -10% region (correction), align well with recent low volume nodes on the Daily ES volume chat.
ISP1! trade ideas
This weeks outlook on the S&P 500!Technical Analysis:
Current Price Action:
The S&P 500 closed at 5376, which is a critical level. This price point will serve as our primary reference for determining market sentiment.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: If the market remains above 5376, this level will act as a new support. Traders will be watching for a bounce off this level to confirm bullish momentum.
Resistance: Should the market move below 5376, the next significant support level will need to be identified, potentially around 5320.
Moving Averages:
50-Day Moving Average: This will help us gauge the short-term trend. If the current price is above the 50-day MA, it indicates a bullish trend. Conversely, if it is below, it suggests a bearish trend.
200-Day Moving Average:
This provides a longer-term trend perspective. A price above this average signals a long-term bullish outlook, while below it suggests bearishness.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI will indicate whether the market is overbought or oversold. An RSI above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while an RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions. Current RSI levels can help anticipate potential reversals or continuations in price movements.
Volume Analysis:
Volume spikes can signify the strength of a price move. High volume with upward price movement supports a bullish outlook, whereas high volume with downward movement supports bearishness.
Market Sentiment:
Investor Sentiment:
Market sentiment can often be gauged through various sentiment indices or social media analysis. Positive sentiment typically aligns with bullish market movements, whereas negative sentiment aligns with bearish trends.
Institutional Activity:
Monitoring the actions of institutional investors can provide insights into market direction. Large buy orders from institutions often signify confidence in market growth, while large sell orders may indicate a lack of confidence.
Conclusion:
Given the current closing price of the S&P 500 at 5376, the market outlook hinges on whether it can maintain levels above this point. A sustained move above 5376 will likely attract more bullish activity, potentially pushing prices higher. However, a drop below this level could indicate bearish momentum, leading to further declines.
In the absence of significant fundamental data this week, technical indicators and market sentiment will play crucial roles in guiding trading decisions. Traders should pay close attention to support and resistance levels, moving averages, RSI, and volume to navigate this week’s market movements effectively.
Is the crash here?Throughout all of social media and YouTube I've been seeing many people panicking if weather or not we have topped and should start selling. One thing that I've learned predicting mayor world events is to: always play it on the safe side when dealing with uncertainty. Instead of shorting the market, I prefer reducing my exposure, as short trades are extremely risky, and I've personally learned that the hard way. It is true that price action is now at an infliction point. With a vast amount of stocks entering a downtrend in such a harsh manner. It is not hard to see why everyone is panicking. Do I think this is the crash we've been waiting for? Perhaps it is, but I can't tell with certainty because even tough price is over extended, it does have a lot of structure supporting it.
The reason we are at an infliction point is due to the price action reaching the 25MA which many times is used as support or resistance and going below this threshold would for sure confirm a downtrend and with my Mean Returns indicator the story is the same. We are seeing a loss in momentum after having a very bullish push in the last years.
With all the recent news in the U.S. election, it is fascinating to see the market react to these mayor events. These do change the scope of how the market should behave, as a lot of uncertainty has just been introduced to the U.S. population in general. This lack of knowing what the future hold in store is what I believe to be the driving force of this recent downtrend. Combined with increasingly worsening economic fundamentals is what will give us the crash we are waiting for. But before making a decision on how to trade, it's important to consider all possible outcomes. Which is exactly what you can see in the graph. Where I've marked what different price action would mean to the economy and the market in general, as well as setting a trading plan for all of these outcomes.
This type of panicking is what leads me away from using stop losses. People panic and push prices violently. However, many times the analysis was correct from the start but hitting a stop loss gets you to close your position prematurely. That's why I define several entry levels and dollar cost average since the beginning. Using an equation to determine how much should I invest, at which levels to determine the correct amount of exposure to avoid missing out and to always have a favorable average price.
Thursday & Friday NFP Price Action REview ES 8-2-24Going over the price action for Thursday and Friday NFP, looking for clues as to what the market was telling us. We got stopped twice on thursday leading to an automatic Friday Suspension. 2 yellow cards in a day = a Red Card. Miss the next game. hope everyone worked on reviewing their trades and updating their trading Plan. We Are Risk Managers first and foremost. if your coach's aren't managing risk then you need new coaches.
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below.
comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here.
current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend.
key levels: 5400-5600
bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months.
Invalidation is above 5600.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good.
short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024.
medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024.
current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500.
chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
Does the USA sill have something left in the tank?With the recent news of the FED being close to a new rate cut, it's important to start considering the possibility of the market going even higher. However, it's hard for price to keep pushing up when it's already overextended. Not saying this doesn't happen because it does. Price does tend to break the rules of statistics, given the irrationality of people. However now that most stocks are currently in an uptrend, it's hard to believe this performance will continue for much. It's likely that several stocks will begin to start forming downtrends, pushing the percentage of stocks in an uptrend down. When looking at the chats, the cyclicality of growth spurts is quite notorious. However, not every time that a down turn in the index is followed, the vast majority of stocks being in an uptrend.
Although this does tend to happen, as I've circled here in many examples. However, other examples don't show this same pattern and instead see price move even higher. This is because using the percentage of stocks in an uptrend as an indicator is not painting a full picture. Even if many stocks being going into downtrends, the force and extent of which these trends form is what actually drives price action in the index. So we should expect several stocks to begin underperforming in the next couple of days. But if the stocks that have just recently entered an uptrend keep providing strong results, it's still possible for the index to keep on going higher. The direction of the index will depend on the strength of the new form trends and the soon-to-be formed downtrends.
ES - Dealing Range Equilibrium @ $5,371 MetSimilar to other asset classes, there has been more movement within the 2 days of trading within this new month of August than the whole of July which is something to definitely pay attention to.
With rates announced and FED maintaining their 5.50%, the sentiment was bearish with many speculating a continuation in price action through all-time highs.
Last week i stated that the market symmetry between ES, NQ and YM is off balanced as we were seeing YM creating higher highs, higher lows whilst NQ and ES was faltering but the good news is there is more harmony in price action between the three pairs than there was last week which makes it easier to judge where price action is most likely to go next.
The question i always ask myself is where does the most pain lie?
Short term, i believe many are fearful and would want to sell
Notice the volume imbalance located within a premium @ $5,464.25 - $5,480.25 which the algorithms can reprice up into. This is where my scopes is set on for this week
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed.
Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately.
Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so.
Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go.
So all together... a significant technical breakdown.
Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish.
Projected target marked (red ellipse).
Take care!
Time to catch its breathThe expectation for Monday after the volatility on Thursday and Friday in the S&P 500 is for the market to stop absorb what happened and catch its breath which would mean that Monday's range would be inside Friday's range.
20240802 ESI anticipate some downside potential for the 30min till 9.00am. I anticipate an upside move with TGIF narrative. It is too early for the reversal call. I would like to see where price will be at 9.00am. Meanwhile the initial reaction to the NFP news is to the downside. I anticipate that to be a fake move and the main move to be to the upside. BUT there should be signs of reversal to the upside.
NEW INFORMATION REFLECTED IN FORECASTOver the last three weeks, sellers have been aggressively selling, creating a pretty clear three wave corrective structure with a possible target of 5300 support. Daily RSI is cooling substantially as price nears that zone, indicating a possible change of behavior may be coming. When combined with the weekly divergences, the evidence suggests that we are likely still in a intermediate (yellow) degree wave three and it’s target needs to be pushed higher toward the 6000 zone. This is even more evident when analyzing the lack of divergences on the monthly chart. With all evidence considered, the market is in for some large swings, but still positioned bullish on a higher degree.
ES Levels & targets Aug 2nd5447-50 was key support overnight. I mentioned that it was final support before sellers break us down to 5414 and after testing over 10x last evening, it cracked, selling to 5414.
As of now: Same as yesterday. Sellers control until 5448-50 reclaims. 5400, 5378 below here
S&P Post ISM Data (fear) 20/40 or 100 MA?After Manufacturing data out the US caused fear and a selloff in Global Equities, we can look for new areas likely to be hit.
This comes before key jobs data also out the US.
Key support exists lower, and could be ideal for very, very light longs in a risk off environment.
To the north? Short areas around 20/40 with caution again.
If markets reject current impetus and go with strong economy rhetoric. We may see further rises.
AMP Futures - Chart Themes - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create chart themes using Tradingview mobile app.
AnticipationThe S&P 500 price action on Thursday implies a market that is anticipating a possible recession and that the Fed may be too late in adjusting interest rates. I do not look for a big day down on Friday unless the labor numbers that are reported create that type of market reaction. If not, I'm looking for an inside day on Friday as we go into the weekend.
ES Levels & Targets Aug 1stEarlier this week I mentioned that as long as buyers hold 5438, we can break out this 5438-5528 multiday range to 5585.. We hit 5585, for a 150+ point rally.
As of now: Hold runners if you have them. 5572, 5558-60 are supports. Keeps 85, 5605+ live. If 5558 fails, sell 5546, 5528
Over Night Price Action REview ES 8-1-24Going over the ES Overnight Price Action. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we want to trade today. ONly A+ trades today. nothing other than A+ trades. no setup no trade today. no FOMO
Getting ready for job reportsThe objective to the upside is 5630 in the S&P 500 for Thursday's S&P 500 range. However, dramatic volatility is not expected as the Thursday's market action is the set up for the job reports coming out on Friday.
FUTURES - ES Short Bias.
price above 5629.75 would invalidate short bias. This would be the stop-loss point
Short entries looks to be between 5605.50-5602.
First target 5462.
full pattern playout - $5358.25
ES Ascending WedgeES has a steep ascending wedge here on the 15m that is heading straight into trendline resistance. This trendline above is critical, it is the uptrend from the April lows that was recently broken below. This is the first retest, and with the wedge I expect at least a small rejection. I'd say it's likely we'll see a big rejection, but if we don't I'll probably be looking for longs tomorrow.
This is a critical moment here, everything is on the edge and I think this week could determine direction for the next 3-6 months.
FOMC ES Price Action REview 7-31-24Going over the price action FOMC day. very difficult day. technically challenging for sure but we go over how we could have traded it better and try to understand the clues the market was leaving us.
AMP Futures - Chart Trading - Tradingview mobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to execute trades directly off the chart using TradingView mobile app.
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken.
key levels: 5400 - 5600
bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side.
Invalidation is above 5600.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
