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#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Increased volume on the down move is telling you that this one is the real one. Over the next months, market will test down to the bull trend line from 2023-10, which is also where the weekly 20ema is. Friday we stopped around the smaller bull trend line and it’s a decent place to expect some pullback before we be on our way to 5400/5450 comment: Low of the week was 5432 and I wrote 5400/5450, +121 points. For most letters/rooms/subscriptions you have to pay good money for those outlooks, if you even get them this accurate. Hope you made some. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600 key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Lower lows and lower highs. Bulls stopped the selloff where they had to and their last bull trend line before only the one from the covid low remains. I do think the two legged correction is good for now for the bears and a bounce is due. Since both sides have reasonable arguments, I think it will come down to earnings. If the mag7 report good and their outlook stays good, we bounce higher. If they fail or some fail, we move sideways. Slightly favoring a higher bounce to form a proper channel downwards. Decent chance bulls might close both bear gaps. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but also expecting a pullback first. Same as dax. → Last Sunday we traded 5553 and now we are at 5499. Low was 5432. Bearish was right. Pullback was right. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. medium-long term: First target for this section was 5450 and that will be hit over the next days or 2 weeks. After that is 5300 over the next 3-8 weeks and 5000 could be hit again in 2024. —update: 5450 was hit mid July. Next comes 5300 over the next 2-6 weeks. current swing trade: Took profits on the swing short from 5700. Will add again above 5550. chart update: Added my preferred bear channel for the next weeks.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Combined US Indexes shows imminent troublesThe week earlier saw the combined index chart log a double top, where last week started to break down. By midweek, the gap (from the previous rally after a breakout) closed. The week ended with a gap reopening. On Friday, this would normally signal a reversal and a bullish reopening of the gap, but it looks a lot less likely given that the MACD is clearly downtrending, as well as the VolDiv confirming bearishness in more ways than one... going below zero line, etc. So, for what it is worth, the reopening is likely to be a flash in the pan, and once it makes a lower low next week, it would really let it go - DOWN
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
S&P July 26 Friday in this video I wanted to show that the market did go to the area where we would find buyers and that would have made around an 80 or 90 point trade on the ES. I believe a lot of Traders would have a hard time taking a trade at the trade location I was looking for because it felt very bearish. want to get into these markets before they move too far in your direction so you don't give too much profit. the market moved below what I would call the last higher low....which is where the buyers found a reversal pattern and drove the market to a new high. in this example the market traded below that last higher low which could be considered a bearish move... and even if you don't know what that description means there will be traders that will be bearish on the market.... but there will also be Traders who will let the market move lower to fill in a gap or a region that's a support resistance area and they will go along. and even if they didn't think exactly like that there will be shorts who will take their profit when it moves to that level just to take profit and nothing else.... which is why these trade locations work. but the bigger picture is after the market found its support and moved about 80 points higher I believe I can't remember the exact number, there is a good chance on Sunday or Monday that there may be selling on this Market and it may be significant enough to expand lower and reveal an even larger correction lower than the initial correction which I think was around 200 points if I remember correctly. my point is there's a paradox in a way that Traders can get wrapped up and victimized by the market because these Traders may not understand that markets find reversals where most Traders not only miss the reversal but they don't even see it as a viable option because they're thinking is too out of sync with the way smart money moves. I gave a point of view that favors the market going lower. if I'm not in the market but I'm looking for sellers in the evening when the markets open on Sunday.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
S&P 500 long setup as bulls defend long-term uptrend Fortune favours the brave. And after filling the gap created in June and bouncing off uptrend support dating back to when the Fed pivoted from rate cuts in November on Thursday, you get the sense it’s now or never for S&P 500 500 e-mini bulls. Either they’ll defend the level with the aim of testing the former highs or we’ll see a break lower. Until we see the break, we might as well help bulls with the fight. I know the close below the 50-day moving average will be perceived as bearish, but bulls still managed to defend the uptrend despite a huge lift in volumes. The signals from RSI and MACD on momentum are also not great. But we’re not risking a huge amount of capital if we place a tight stop below the uptrend for protection, say at 5432. You could even wait for a push and close above the 50DMA before entering the trade, allowing for the stop to be raised. Either way, if the trade works in your favour, consider raising your stop to entry level to provide free optionality on upside. Potential targets include 5533, Thursday’s session high, along with 5631.5 which acted as support and resistance earlier this month. From there, we’re talking record highs. If Microsoft can provide confidence on AI-driven revenues when it kicks off the next batch of Magnificent Seven earnings next week, it could easily flow through to Apple, Amazon and Meta that report later in the week. DS
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FOREXcom
Ending the Week with a POP and Drop? ES just broke the long Daily Trend Linee ** IMPORTANT** = Now this has broken it is the new resistance don't get bull trapped, bears sleep all summer and there awake and hangry - Weekly Time Frame to the 26 MA will tell us the trend My guess is a hard bounce with the anticipation of NVDA 28th Aug.. -If it breaks sell coved calls and get in puts -If Breaks bulls its going to get bloody (Banks "JP Morgan" anticipate 20% drop. Levels to watch Current Price 5,455 to the next whale zone looks choppy (Whale) 5,470 If it gets here I anticipate a BullTrap ** On the 15 Min time frame its hitting the whale and the upper KC channel The Drop 5,449 -5,497 (No trade zone) If breaks watch the yearly level is a magnet @ 5,441 - Choppy im a lazy swing trader i dont believe in scaping Super Computers beat us evetime After this big whale at 5,432 My last few have been sloppy, this is solid mark my words. ** Economics** Forget the news and all the BS (NVDA will crush earnings) until then watch the big orders and the 2 year bond yield and the 10 Year Oil likes the 80 Level, to pop this back up its Trillions of Dollars. *Key indicators** - As one of these will drop and make the other move Oil Bitcoin Gold ES/SPX/Spyy Alt SouthKorea vs US Dollar JPY/USD
CME_MINI:ESU2024Short
by BullishBear1996
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: A trading range after a strong move is more often than not the final flag. Yesterday we formed a late trading range and bulls had a strong move up today, which makes me believe that the sell into the close was the final flag, rather the start of another leg down. Market is at huge support with the bull trend line from October and no one expects it to break on the first try. Can we dip below before a stronger pullback? Sure. Odds still favor the bulls for a pullback, at least to the 4h again, like the bull spike today. I have drawn 2 potential paths forward but as always, wait for the market to show its direction and not guess it and most certainly do not trade before it’s happening. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped. Enjoy the ride down. key levels: 5400 - 5560 bull case: Bulls got a strong bounce to the 4h 20ema today. Tomorrow they want to defend the bull trend line from 2023-10 and keep the market above 5500, which is still max bullish if you look at higher tf. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are in control of the market and in full STR mode. The bounce today was strong but bears reversed it even harder. They are trading below all important ema and their only target for the rest of the month is to break the big bull trend line, which would put bulls in panic mode. Such important trend lines mostly have to be poked at a couple of times before market can break through. If they step aside for another pullback higher, they need to keep it below 5533 or market will test 5560/5570 again. Invalidation is above 5533. short term: Slightly bullish with a clear invalidation price of 5430. Odds slightly favor the bulls for a second leg up and go sideways around 5500. If bears manage to break below the bull trend line, next support is at 5300. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Closed my swing short from 5700 at 5450. I expect a pullback and will short it again. trade of the day: Buying the opening reversal from 5432. On the 5m chart bears just quickly gave up and market made 97 up. Very strong 3 bar reversal and difficult to take after the 40 point drop from the open. Taking the short afterwards was probably easier and better. Market turned at the 4h 20ema and only spent 1h at around 5520 before bears printed a strong 15m bear bar which was strong enough to go short as it closed. On the chart it was bar 13
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds