It's time to feel the sellOnly count that obeys fib rules from the top. Looking for a major drop over the remainder of the trading week.
ISP1! trade ideas
ES Price Action Review 7-24-24Going over the massive Sell day price Action ES looking for clues as to how we could have traded better today. reset the mind and body. we battle tomorrow. take the night off if you traded poorly.
ES1! TA vs FEDFUNDSUsing Elliot Wave Theory, I found some bullish targets, for an extended 5th wave, to around 6666 ES1!. Comparing 2018-2020 to 2022-2024 wave fractals and FEDFUNDS, there's a glaring pattern; calling for a short-squeeze to V-shaped-crash scenario.
ES Bulls Must HoldPretty wild day today. SPY finally broke its streak of not having a -2% day or worse, it had been on the longest streak since 2007. Major weakness for the mag 7 and semis for the first time really since fall of 2023.
I think we'll see a bounce here for several reasons, one of which is this trendline on ES that started back in March. We had huge breakout in early June when ES broke above it and it has not retested since until today. We closed nearly right on it. I'm not sure how big of a bounce we'll get, but I think we'll have a decent one.
If no bounce, I would think it's just going to get a lot worse quickly.
Large move lower is not expected.Large move lower is not expected in the S&P 500 for Thursday, July 25. We do have fundamentals that can spur this market to high volatility on both Thursday and Friday. However, the main focus will be the PCE report on Friday.
Bounce and head to 6000 by early SeptemberHello Traders.. Wow what a quicky nasty selloff.. That's ok it was needed to propel us to the magic 6000 number. You can see were on strong trendline support from November and a nice 50% retrace level was completed. So I believe the selloff is done... And we head back up now and see us peaking early September near 6000.
SPX WAY DOWN WE GO Spx is in a crab pattern I think the next couple of months would be harsh for the long side
S&P Futures Market Simple Trading Plans - Reacting To FEDHere's a detailed video on how to make use of market sentiment early on.
If you are looking for value investor longs, you'd need sentiment to feed in further and drop the price of the SPX.
For shorts, you'd need continued sentiment to support a downside case. More would need to follow post Fed Member Goolsbee regarding jobs/inflation.
Short Sell Analysis of SPX Based on Technical AnalysisThe S&P 500 (SPX) is presenting a short-selling opportunity based on technical resistances on chart.
ES levels & targets July 24thThis week, plan has been simple: last week was selling, this week major resistances needed to reclaim. I was looking for a rally from buyers to 5630-33 area. Yesterday we rallied to 5629.75 high of day, sold 80 points from there.
As of now: 5547-51 is support. Buyers must reclaim 5570 now to see any attempt at a relief pop (targeting 5578, 5586, 5600). 5547 fails, next leg to starts to 5536
Overnight Price action REview ES 7-24-24Going over the ES price Action Overnight. TSLA GOOGL earnings out last night looking for clues the market left us.
ES Potential Trend BreakSo NQ has broken broken below its uptrend from April, but there's a long way until open tomorrow. If we see NQ continue lower into open, along with ES breaking its uptrend I think we'll see a lot more downside soon.
ES is still maintaining its uptrend for now., first target is ~5400.
Buyers momentum failedBuyers momentum to the upside failed in the S&P 500 as sellers returned to the market. The structure implies continued movement to the downside.
Squeeze the whole earth“I, Jesus, have sent my angel to testify to you about these things for the churches. I am the root and the descendant of David, the bright morning star.” - Revelation 22:16
It is written
RTH ES Price Action REview 7-23-24Going over the price Action ES looking for clues and how we're positioning for tomorrow. TSLA GOOGL AH reports
ES Dayly Preparation 24/07/24 The main target from weekly scenario was reached by buyers on Tuesday's session.
There will be important macroeconomic data released tommorrow so all eyes on that.
Despite preparation, I will probably stay away from geting into any trade.
Morning Price Action Review ES 7-23-24Going over the Morning sEssion ES looking for clues as to how we could have managed and traded better.
Seasonality and Elliottwave pattern show correction for SP500We saw SP500 breaking to new ATH this month, but then market sharply reversed which is not a surprise as index formed an ending diagonal at the top of the recent rise. These type of the patterns are very powerful, and can cause a strong "unexpected" erased of some of the previous gains.
Well, we can see an impulsive reversal on smaller time frame, so be aware of more weakness and deeper correction this summer. Sesonality chart also shows that there can be period of consolidation before market resumes even higher, possibly in September when FED may cut, or during US ellections.
Grega
ES levels and targets July 23Yesterday, buyers broke the 3 day streak of red. I gave 3 targets: 5604 (hit, we spent yesterday here), 5616-17 (just hit exact), 5630.
As of now: Keep riding the runners if you have them. 5611, 5602 are supports. Keeps 5630-33, reaction there, then 5646+ in play. 5602 fails (weak now), we dip 5585 again
ES OverNight price Action ReviewGoing over the overnight session looking for clues as to how we want to trade today.
ES may still have some volatiliesThis week we have OPEX (Option Expiration) and some earnings of big caps like AAPL and META. I am expecting some volatilities may continue for the whole week. ES bounced back to yesterday high after European session closed.
The big question, why did ES stope at the High US early session and high of Friday ? I am expecting kind of cooling off movement, drop back to Value area of yesterday.
That high becomes a poor high , and will be noted for any potential break out, but may not be today.
ES Day's Price ACtion REview 7-22-24Going over the day's price action. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we could have traded better. management and discipline is what makes champions and that is our focus goal for the next 3 months.
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not too much to add after the dax analysis. 50% pb for sp500 is 5632, so market has some room higher. Daily 20ema is around 5600 and I do think the odds of the market turning down again to test the lows or make lower lows, is higher than going above 5630.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped and is now deflating. Enjoy the ride down.
key levels: 5540 - 5620
bull case: Bulls want at least the 50% pb and as long as they stay above the bull trend line 5575ish, their bull case is valid. One market broke above the 1h 20ema, it could not get a close below it and that’s strength by the bulls. They need follow through tomorrow and probably some force to get above 5632. That price is the 50% pb and also the breakout price, so two good reasons to go there again.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Bears need a proper channel for more downside, so they stepped aside enough today for bulls to get a bounce. Their target now is to stay below 5632 and not let the bulls gain too much hope again. No deeper analysis today, please see my weekly post.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Neutral until market found the lower high and trades back down. Should be around 5630. If the minor bull trend line is broken, bearish to 5500 and below 5500 is hell.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”.
trade of the day: Bulls made more money today. Buying anywhere near the minor bull trend line or at the 15m 20ema was good enough. Buying bar 45 or latest 47 was a very good trade.
