Rest dayThe typical behavior when you have shortened trading sessions and the bullish bias in the S&P 500 is not to expect high volatility unless there is new news that can stimulate the market.
ISP1! trade ideas
SPX scenarios in weekly chartHello
These 2 scenarios for S&P is more probable ones and as you elliotticians know there is a doubt in wave (4). In scenario 1 wave (4) is acceptable due to Alternation and in scenario 2 it made a Running Flat. In both scenarios there is one strategy for today market which is another correction starting from here.
In smaller time frames you need to find a bearish impulse wave to get in this correction.
ES Price Action REview entire day 11-27 Overnight + RTHGoing over the price action for the ES for wednesday 11-27-24 looking back at clues the market left us and how we positioned ourselves for the day. Pain + Reflection = Growth. yesterday was an absolutely magnificent day to really study and learn from. do all your work. enjoy time with Family/Friends and give thanks for the gift of life. We get to be Alive.
Class A/B RSI Bearish Divergence on SPY Futures?Really posting here to see if anyone would validate this for me but I was looking on the chart and this idea came about. On the weekly chart for ES1!, there seems to be class A or B Bearish Divergence developing on the Weekly timeframe.
Listen, of course we all know SPY trends upwards over time but is this an indicator of a larger sell the market needs to go higher every once in a blue moon? This is guarenteed a macro trend and I probably will have to wait a year for this analysis to play out but hey, at least we're here. (***ponders on how I charted Gamestop at $10 but never traded because of lack of knowledge***) Anyways, this is something I will of course monitor but let me highlight instances in history this has happened. Please feel free to give your input on this analysis!
Jan 1998 thru Apr 2001 (News Driver: Dot-Com Bubble)
Price makes higher highs from Jan 98' thru Mar 00'
From Mar 98' thru Mar 00', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) on Sep 00'. Fails to make new all-time high
From Sep 00' to Apr 01' price moves down as much as 30% over the next 224d
Jan 2013 thru Feb 2016
Price makes higher highs from Jan 13' thru May 15'
From May 13' thru Jun 14', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) Jul 15' and a following lower high on Nov 15'
From Jul 15' to Aug 15' (42d) (News Driver: Lagging China Market) price moves down as much as 14% and as much as 14% on the Nov '15 lower high to Jan 16' (78d) (News Driver: Oil Prices)
Current: Jan 24' thru Nov 24'
Price has been making higher highs all year
From Mar 24' thru , the RSI has been making lower highs while price is making higher highs
We are now at a point where price is pushing to go higher but what I would want to see based off of historical data is for price to consolidate or some type of Bearish Turtle Soup forming. If this happens and the RSI returns to Fair Value, we could be in for a sizeable sell of for at least a couple of weeks in the near future.
I will come back to this in the next few months. Happy Trading!
Mini ES Retests Resistance Preparing For Possible ShortSP500 Retests Resistance preparing for possible pullback or short. Market has hit all time highs. Look for short time sells. Nice setup for swing trading…
Possible SHORT TradeI anticipate that the price will test the resistance zone between $6,012.50 and $6,028. If the price fails to break through this level, it is likely to reverse and decline towards the support level at $6,000.
Holiday Trading Plan Nov 28th & 29thNOTE: This trade plan is for the next two days. Both Thursday and Friday are half days for futures closing at 1pm EST. The NYSE is closed tomorrow, but open for a half day Friday. Volatility and volume will be very light and setups will be limited. The below levels are also for two sessions, which means they may be less precise than usual as I am basically averaging two days. I will post any real-time revisions and updates in private group as the day goes on.
Plan for Thursday and Friday’s Sessions
Supports:
• Major: 6009, 5993-89, 5963, 5952, 5933, 5921, 5908, 5878-5880, 5850-55, 5837, 5818-22, 5802, 5773, 5757-59.
• Minor: 6002, 5998, 5981, 5972, 5967, 5957, 5942, 5928, 5902, 5892, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5842, 5828, 5812, 5806, 5790, 5782, 5766.
Resistances:
• Major: 6025-28, 6045-50, 6069, 6089, 6112, 6121, 6134, 6152, 6185, 6195, 6214, 6232, 6245, 6263, 6271-76.
• Minor: 6017, 6033, 6039, 6055, 6062, 6076, 6082, 6095, 6117, 6142, 6163, 6171, 6200, 6208, 6225, 6238, 6256.
Context and Strategy:
The market remains in a large consolidation base between 5993-89 and 6045-50, with numerous key levels within this congested range (6009, 6025). I am still holding my 10% long runner from the ~6002 add this afternoon.
With the next two sessions being holiday trading days, do not over-trade. These sessions will likely have low volume, low liquidity, and a higher failure rate for setups due to the absence of substantial institutional participation.
Most holiday sessions tend to drift higher, but this is not guaranteed. Friday morning could see some better moves, but my bias is to avoid entries until Monday and let my runner continue working.
Key Levels to Watch:
1. 6009 (Major Support): This is the first downside test, but it has been heavily worked already. Unlikely to provide a strong setup without fresh demand.
2. 5993-89 (Critical Support): A retest here provides a safer long opportunity if bulls defend this level again. Look for a possible Failed Breakdown at this level to confirm demand remains intact.
3. 6025-28 (Major Resistance): This area remains a key upside test. Reaction here could determine whether bulls can push higher or if the range tightens further.
Scenarios for Thursday and Friday:
Bull Case:
1. Hold 5993-89: As long as bulls defend this zone, the range remains intact, and ES can build structure for another push higher. This could look like a test of 6025-28, a minor dip, and then a re-test of 6045-50.
2. Breakout Above 6045-50: If bulls clear this resistance, the next targets are 6069, then 6089. Further upside could extend toward 6112 and beyond.
3. Ultra Bullish Scenario: ES skips further downside tests entirely, flagging above 6009 and pushing directly to test 6025-28. A breakout here sets the stage for continuation toward the highs.
** I’d normally give a spot to add on strength but we have two holiday sessions ahead so this is impossible to do without seeing the action real-time.
Bear Case:
1. Breakdown Below 5993-89: For a short setup, patience is critical. The ideal entry comes after:
• A final bounce attempt at 5993-89, or
• A failed breakdown of today’s low that fizzles out, ensuring the demand from this level has been exhausted.
Enter short only after sellers flush below the structure’s lows (e.g., 5986 or higher), confirming that demand has been taken off the table. This reduces the risk of being trapped by a reversal. Refer to Edu Section for example.
2. Targets on Breakdown: If 5993-89 fails and momentum builds, watch for a test of 5963, 5952, or even a failed breakdown recovery around 5972. Be cautious as breakdown trades are low win-rate setups and prone to trapping shorts unless confirmed.
Summary for Thursday and Friday:
• Bullish Lean: As long as 5993-89 holds, the market remains in consolidation. This favors a move toward 6025-28, followed by an eventual breakout to 6069, 6089, and higher.
• Bearish Risks: A loss of 5993-89 could trigger a deeper sell-off to 5963, 5952, or beyond. Short setups require patience and confirmation of seller strength.
Holiday trading requires extra caution. Avoid chasing moves, focus on high-probability setups, and let price confirm structure before taking trades. Remember: Low liquidity can lead to erratic moves. Stay disciplined and prioritize capital preservation.
Sideways move is expectedGoing into the shortened trading session in the S&P 500 for Thursday a sideways move is expected. High volatility is not expected due to a lack of scheduled fundamental information.
ES Trendline SupportDecent little sell off this morning, ES coming into trendline support, important for bulls to hold it here. If we bounce I'll look for a move back up to the trendline above for a potential breakout.
If it breaks below and can't hold 6k, I would definitely avoid longs until around 5950 at least.
ES Morning update Nov27thThe steady climb persists in ES. As posted yesterday breakout above 6002 would push us higher with 6027, 6036, and 6046 as targets. We hit 6046 exactly.
As of now: 6026=support (already tested once). Holds keep 6038, 6044 in play. Breakout potential to 6073 above. If 6026 fails, watch for dips to 6017, then 6002.
ES PRice action Review for Tuesday 11-26 and WEdnesday OVernightGoing Over Tuesdays RTH Price action and the Overnight Session. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we could have traded better. Pain + Reflection = Growth. No A+ trade setup today no Trades.
S&P potential long when new york market opensas the bullish daily bias show us, we can see some liq to the downside that could be taken . after that we could react at the 70-80 % fib level , which is as well at the 1h Order Block . that would give us nice confirmation and we could take a trade if we get a good setup to that, the main thing is that we are bullish and that we want to get higher. but unfortunately everything can happen and we are not forcing trades. Risk 1-3 %
Es Bullish after retracement to discountI'm looking for a return to the equilibrium of the previous Day's range or below it then for price to reach for the previous Day's high after 9:30am
Do bulls really want to be long the S&P 500 ahead of a breakout?S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why.
MS.
S&P 500 futures: Bulls eye breakout beyond record highsS&P 500 futures have been marching higher for more than a week, attracting buying on dips towards uptrend support. With RSI (14) and MACD confirming the bullish price action, the path of least resistance looks higher, putting a retest of 6053.25 on the radar.
With the bias to buy dips near-term, there are two setups available: the first would be to wait for a break above 6053.25. If it were to hold beyond the ultra-short term, you could initiate with a tight stop beneath for protection. Alternatively, if we were to see another retest of uptrend support, longs could be established above it with a stop beneath for protection.
Some traders use extension measures to assess potential targets when trading at record high, but I’m more simplistic; round numbers, such as 6100 using this example, are one option. Another would be to wait for an obvious topping signal from either a single or multiple candle pattern. When one comes along, bail. Otherwise, let it ride.
If the price were to break and close beneath the uptrend, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS.
Positive closes expected for WednesdayWith the bounce from the lows to new highs in the S&P 500 daily chart, it implies buyers have returned and follow-through would be expected for Wednesday's action.
The never Ending cycleEveryone on Trading View hasheard me explain how the Pivot Points, and Elliot wave Theory. ES and NQ have already rallied since he close back up to R3 with an R5 predicted. SPY, QQQ, TSLL, NVDX and other exchange traded funds *should* follow they up, as what non Futures traders see what they call a gap up.
The ES Futures already have recovered almost to yesterday's high R5, which ES is already a R3 pre-market.
Just don't take the loss if you were all in long yesterday, and didn't take the loss on purpose. The right response is to wait for the cycle to go back up on the ETFs and Stocks.
www.tradingview.com
Why do you think the Bilderbergs published this news now, why this timing?
We should see what we call a Turnaround Tuesday, as the never ending cycle ranges between S6 and R6.
Es Morning Update Nov 26thThis week has revolved around one key level: 5988, the new money magnet. Yesterday, it held as support, sparking a 30-point rally before we got a flush. However, a failed breakdown reclaimed the level overnight.
As of now: Watch for 6026 next, with 6038 beyond. Supports are 6009 (weak) and 5988-93.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 11-26-24Going over the ES price Action overnight and looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. coming up with a plan for the day and reflecting on our trades.
ES - Where to Join into the TrainThese two blue boxes are also very suitable for working with receivers.
Instead of getting lost in the low time interval, transactions can be taken by looking at the reactions when the price reaches these levels.
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Daily Leading Indicators looking to turnaround PReviouslyly posted about the Bearish outlook for the Weekly :Leading Indicators... now it appears that Monday is giving the Daily Leading Indicators a new outlook.
A possible Bullish turnaround...
Breakdowns and Breakouts observed.
ES Support BreakFutures are moving lower after Trump's post about tariffs, I don't think this news is significant, but we could move down tomorrow on technicals alone. Currently trading below today's low of day, we had a pretty big rejection this morning and couldn't hold above 6k or 5990. If we do not reclaim 6k overnight or shortly after open tomorrow, bulls may be in trouble.
Here are some potential downside paths. We have trendline support below followed by horizontal support around 5954. A break below 5954 could cause a quick flush down to around 5900 - 5880.
Transition to selling?The S&P 500 daily structure for Monday was balance between the buyers and sellers. Asia session is weaker and it does imply follow-through to the downside. However, I am not looking for dramatic move lower. Also, be aware of the possibility of a bounce if indeed we do move lower.
