Strategy Finished Consolidating, New High With BTC Leading MicroStrategy (MSTR), the stock is currently demonstrating significant volatility and a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movements, acting almost like a leveraged play on the cryptocurrency.
From a charting perspective, MSTR has been in a long-term bullish trend since its pivot to a Bitcoin acquisition strategy. However, it's prone to sharp corrections following Bitcoin's pullbacks, indicating high risk and reward. Key technical levels to watch would include its 200-day and 50-day moving averages as potential support and resistance zones.
The charts are now flashing strong signals that this sideways accumulation phase is drawing to a close. With Bitcoin (BTC) showing renewed strength and eyeing fresh all-time highs, MSTR, as the largest corporate holder of the digital asset, appears poised to break out. The correlation remains a potent force, and the current setup suggests MSTR is ready to re-engage its upward trajectory, targeting new price peaks in tandem with BTC
M2ST34 trade ideas
$MSTR Monthly Top Form: “Backwards 4” + Multi-TF RSI DivergenceBefore we begin... trading view is restricting my post for an indicator.. maybe someone reported it... not sure... doesn't seem like a problem... it's a TD Sequential ...
🔍 The Setup — Monthly “Backwards 4” Pattern + Multi-Timeframe Breakdown
We’re now forming the 5th candle in what I call the “Backwards 4” formation, or the upside-down lowercase ‘h’ — a recurring reversal structure I’ve tracked at macro tops.
Structure breakdown:
✅ Strong monthly green candle
2–3. 🔻 Two red candles that retrace the body but don’t break it
✅ A second green candle that re-tests the highs and baits breakout buyers
❌ Final candle closes red → confirms exhaustion → multi-month drawdown begins
We saw this exact setup in early 2021 before MSTR collapsed from $1,000+ to $134. The pattern is now repeating — but this time it’s backed by RSI + MACD divergences on all major timeframes.
📊 Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown
📆 Monthly
Inside the “Backwards 4” zone now (candle 5)
RSI Bear Divergence: price made new highs but RSI keeps printing lower highs
MACD flattening after extended expansion
Volume fading for 3 months straight
📌 Momentum is dying while price floats. That’s not strength — that’s late-cycle distribution.
📆 Weekly
TD9 printed this week at the top of a tight 5-month box
RSI rejected at 63.61 — exact same rejection level as last cycle highs
MACD histogram curling while price stayed flat
Range: ~$338–$430 → energy has been spent
📌 This isn’t breakout behavior — it’s a liquidity trap.
📆 Daily
Double top attempt failed at $406
MACD crossed bearish, histogram turning red
RSI Bear Divergence Confirmed:
Price made higher highs from April to May
RSI made lower highs, tagging 66.90 vs. 74.70 earlier this year
📌 Daily has now logged 3 bearish RSI divergence peaks since February.
📋 Trading Plan (as of May 17, 2025)
Position: No current short — stalking ideal entry
Entry Zone: $406–$410 rejection zone (upper box resistance)
Trigger: Daily close under $390 confirms failed breakout
Add Confirmation: Weekly close under $375 = trend shift
Stop: Above $430 monthly high (invalidates breakout fade)
Target 1: $320–$290 (May red close zone)
Target 2: $262 (range midpoint / fib retrace)
Target 3: $240 (prior base support)
Stretch Targets: $175 and $102 if macro breaks down
Waiting for clean structure breakdown before initiating core position. This is a setup worth being early but precise on.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This is one of my highest conviction macro top setups.
The “Backwards 4” is showing up again with RSI and MACD fading across the board. Price is floating under resistance on weakening momentum, and volume confirms it.
If May closes red, we likely begin a multi-month correction.
I’m watching for the breakdown trigger under $390 to begin building short exposure, targeting sub-$300 by month-end and lower into summer if momentum continues to unwind.
📉📦 Let’s see how it finishes.
Strategy Set To Drop —Selling Bitcoin?If you knew a stock was going to crash but this stock is related to Bitcoin and always moves with Bitcoin but now is about to detach, would you tell others?
Bitcoin is already trading at a new All-Time High and six weeks green. Ok, let's forget about Bitcoin because this is about MicroStrategy (now Strategy).
The MSTR stock is bearish now. Very bearish.
The top happened in November 2024.
9-May 2025 we have a long-term lower high. Days at resistance and this lower high is confirmed.
A scandal is about to be uncovered?
A change of "strategy"? Hah, nice play on words.
Is strategy going to have a change of strategy?
This change of strategy obviously will end up screwing everybody who holds this stock?
I don't know... I mean, who knows.
Here is what I know. The chart signals are pointing down. Bearish confirmed so, down we go.
Namaste.
MSTR: Island = Evening StarAnother key detail is that MSTR has gapped down.
And with a gap up on 8 May, the area above is now an island.
If MSTR closes in this area, then if we blended the island into 1 candle, then an Evening Star pattern is printing.
Also considering that this move began with a high momentum upside shakeout ,this is starting to look quite bearish.
And so this may be a leading indicator for Bitcoin.
Not advice
MSTR 2025 PROJECTION Technical Summary – MSTR (1D)
🔹 Current Price: $421.84
🔹 Trend: Bullish with strong momentum from key support zones.
Key Support Zones
$350–320 Zone: Recent consolidation area. Could act as support on a pullback.
Unfilled GAP: Between roughly $300–320. Price may gravitate here if $350 support breaks.
Weekly Bottom: $236.01 – strong structural support.
Institutional Buys:
"BOUGHT 4.3B" indicates institutional demand around $240.
Historical accumulation around $100–80.
Major institutional demand between $80–60.
Sell Zones / Resistance Levels
SOLD 6.3B (red box): Prior distribution area between ~$460 and ~$520.
TARGET 475 USD: Strong technical resistance.
TARGET 800 USD (Block W-D): Extended upside target if price breaks above $475 with conviction.
Possible Scenarios and Key Levels
Bullish Scenario:
A break and hold above $475 → likely path toward $800.
Watch for confirming volume.
Bearish / Pullback Scenario:
Rejection at $460–475 could lead to:
Retest of $350–320 zone.
Gap fill near $300–320.
If momentum fades, next strong support is $236 (weekly bottom).
MSTR (Strategy) coming up to $395, the smaller resistance levelNASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350
I personally know someone who played with fire by buying MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
MSTR - Strategy B fractalsVery interesting patters in MSTR stock when using Fibo levels.
By taking the high of 2021 as the reference (fibo = 1) and projecting it to the current cycle we can see that:
2024 mid year top was 1.618 level and mid year low was 0.786 level.
2024 blow off top was 4.236 level.
Now if we take the 2024 consolidation range and apply fibo to the top and lows of that range, we get also the blow off top at the same level: 4.236, and exactly the same price (around $500).
If we recursively apply this to current blow off top and current low in 2025, we would get a blow off top of around $1,500 if we aim at the 4.236 fibo level.
Bitcoin Income: STRK vs IBIT – Dividends, Covered CallsThis video provides a performance breakdown between two Bitcoin-related financial instruments—STRK (Strike) and IBIT—through the lens of passive income generation. I compare traditional buy-and-hold strategies with more active income tactics such as covered calls. Key insights include:
STRK provided the best return YTD (26%) and yielded approximately 1.54% in passive dividends, requiring minimal effort—just buy, hold, and collect.
IBIT, while slightly trailing in growth (13%), is optimized for a covered call strategy, offering an impressive 6% income yield through active options trading.
The analysis highlights the trade-off between simplicity and engagement—STRK is more passive-friendly, while IBIT offers higher yields for those willing to manage options.
This is ideal for tech-savvy investors exploring Bitcoin ETFs and derivative income strategies, weighing convenience versus return potential.
$MSTR quick phone idea for 5/23; Short 0DTEThis name seems to have lost steam. I’m all for Saylor and what he believes in but currently this feels set up for a nasty short. Strategy has had numerous monster days to the downside and upside. This thing had a $150 intraday swing off its $550 high. Tomorrow, 5/23, I am going to enter a possible 5-7% short that expires 5/23. Just a quick idea here as I can’t post charts from phone into minds section. Check you guys tomorrow and I’ll be sure to update this. $375, $380, $385.
MicroStrategy ($MSTR) – Fibonacci Extension Zones📊 MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) – Fibonacci Extension Zones
Not saying it'll reach these levels… but just look at the psychology when you stretch those Fib lines. 🔭
This setup shows:
🔹 Previous High: $543
🔹 1.618 Extension: $735
🔹 2.618 Extension: $1,046
🔹 3.618+: 💥😳
IF it were to split? Game on.
Past price doesn’t guarantee future movement — but the Fib extension isn’t about prediction, it’s about positioning and knowing what levels may cause psychological hesitation, profit-taking, or fresh entries.
🚨 Reminder: Don’t just react. Anticipate. Map it out. Then wait.
MICROSTRATEGY Can $2000 be its next High?Microstrategy (MSTR) followed the exact trading pattern we suggested on our last analysis (December 27 2024, see chart below) as it made its technical correction December through March and rebounded aggressively in April:
Back then we called this a shift to a new paradigm and is no different than the April 1999 bounce than led to the eventual massive rally that made the Dotcom Bubble burst.
Since the recent All Time High (ATH) broke above the (blue) 23-year Channel Up, we applied the Fibonacci Channel levels all the way from its March 2000 Dotcom High. The fractal we mentioned before shows that the stock's next Target, and possibly this Cycle's High, can be on the 0.618 Fib at $2000.
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